South West Surrey

2015 Result:
Conservative: 34199 (59.9%)
Labour: 5415 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 3586 (6.3%)
Green: 3105 (5.4%)
UKIP: 5643 (9.9%)
NHA: 4851 (8.5%)
Others: 320 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 28556 (50%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey.

Main population centres:


Politics: The seat and its predecessors have been represented by the Conservative party since 1910, and has been represented by three cabinet level ministers in a row (former Secretary of State for Employment Maurice MacMillan, former Health Secretary Virginia Bottomley and now Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt). The Liberal Democrats were once a strong force here and in 1997 and 2001 it was a close marginal. Since then the Conservatives have once again built up an robust majority.

Current MP
JEREMY HUNT (Conservative) Born 1966, Godalming. Educated at Charterhouse and Oxford University. Former entrepreneur and English language teacher. First elected as MP for South West Surrey in 2005. Shadow culture secretary 2007-2010. Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Health since 2012. Hunt was deeply involved in the Leveson inquiry. Hunt was made responsible for the decision on whether to approve the News Corporation takeover of BSkyB and was accused of being too close to News International.
Past Results
Con: 33605 (59%)
Lab: 3419 (6%)
LDem: 17287 (30%)
UKIP: 1486 (3%)
Oth: 1462 (3%)
MAJ: 16318 (28%)
Con: 26420 (50%)
Lab: 4150 (8%)
LDem: 20709 (40%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 172 (0%)
MAJ: 5711 (11%)
Con: 22462 (45%)
Lab: 4321 (9%)
LDem: 21601 (44%)
UKIP: 1208 (2%)
MAJ: 861 (2%)
Con: 25165 (45%)
Lab: 5333 (9%)
LDem: 22471 (40%)
Oth: 659 (1%)
MAJ: 2694 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
JEREMY HUNT (Conservative) See above.
PATRICK HAVERON (Liberal Democrat)
LOUISE IRVINE (NHA) Born 1957, Paisley. Educated at Harlaw Academy and Aberdeen University. GP.
PAUL ROBINSON (Something New) Businessman.
Comments - 277 Responses on “Surrey South West”
  1. I read a few other MPs vouching (anonymously) for Hancock as well. Perhaps he is more impressive than I initially thought.

    I agree with Hunt, Javid or Raab, but in such a febrile atmosphere a lot of things can happen.

  2. Hancock apparently has a Boris like private life – if they get published will he have the same Teflon ability to shurg it off.

  3. Well, of course he does. He’s so dashingly handsome and charismatic, how could any woman resist?

    I wonder if he and Ms Truss have ever done the deed? She’s got plenty of previous form herself.

  4. Jeremy Hunt has apparently told people that if he becomes leader he will ensure Britain leaves immediately on WTO terms rather than go for a deal.

  5. ‘Hancock apparently has a Boris like private life’

    That’s an advantage nowadays considering the sort of people that increasingly vote Tory – who sees such things as something to brag about as opposed to be shameful of

  6. Au contraire. The Tory base is, if anything, becoming more socially conservative as liberal centrists take their votes elsewhere.

  7. ‘Hancock apparently has a Boris like private life’

    Am I the only one who finds this difficult to believe?! Goodness me women can be hard to predict at times.

  8. The Tory base is, if anything, becoming more socially conservative as liberal centrists take their votes elsewhere.

    The chavs who now support the Tories in increasing numbers would approve of men who cheat on their wives, something I’m sure politicians as assiduous as Hancock and Johnson are fully aware of

  9. I think that is true to an extent. Places like Basildon are socially conservative on immigration and tolerance towards difference but not exactly places obsessed with sexual morality.

  10. The Angry White Man demographic in such a strong voting bloc in 21st century politics, I do wonder where its subscribers were politically during the 15 years the Tories were flat-lining at around 30% in the polls and UKIP were just a fringe party.

  11. Just goes to show how utterly useless Messrs Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard were. They all utterly failed to leverage that constituency.

  12. It’s actually remarkable how well the Tories have done in harnessing the Angry White Man vote, as unlike the political cousins the Republicans, who devoted time, money and effort into winning the conservative base that has effectively kept them in the White House for most of the years since the 1970s, it’s happened almost by accident

    After Hague, IDS and Howard had all ultimately failed to win the Conservative anywhere near the sort of support they required to win an election, Cameron’s pitch on becoming leader was almost entirely focused on winning back middle class voters in urban areas that had always backed the Tories up until 1997, and on that he single handedly failed

    Instead the Tories were able to form a government – with the help of the Lib Dems – through picking up a string of grotty post industrial seats in provincial England, which have largely stuck with them since.

    This was an accident rather than a strategy, although one with which the Tories are still reaping rewards (4 of the 6 English seats they won in 2017 hadn’t been represented by a Tory since the second world war)

    The most interesting aspect is perhaps that Labour despite the gaffes of the Brown government, the weak leadership of Milliband, the unfathomable decision to make Jeremy Corbyn and having lost almost entirely what was once the core voting bloc – the white working class – they have kept themselves for the most part comfortably above the 30% mark, and have been competitive enough to deny the Tories a majority at 2 of the last 3 elections.

    When you look st what’s happened to their sister parties in mainland Europe, things aren’t quite as bad fir Labour as their many opponents like to make out.

    God help them if they got into government though!

  13. Amber Rudd is to endorse Jeremy Hunt tommrow, with Philip Hammond, Greg Clark and Penny Moudant expected to endorse him over the coming week. Gove’s team beginning to think it will be a hunt/johnson run off where Johnson will win easily. Javid is not getting much momentum despite being backed by Davidson.

  14. Jeremy Hunt is going to bring back fox-hunting!

    I can’t think of a policy that would lose more votes relative to the impact it would actually have on society. Surely, even if you support fox-hunting (disclaimer: I’m not really bothered either way and generally don’t like banning things) then you must realise that it’s just not worth the electoral damage.

  15. ‘Jeremy Hunt is going to bring back fox-hunting!’

    Shows how out of touch he is

    He actually said he wanted a free vote on fox hunting, once the pro hunt lobby had the numbers in Parlianent but conceded that was unlikely to any time soon

    i just hope people see this for what it is – a meaningless gesture designed to appeal to Tory Party members

    My dislike of Hunt and his not even disguised rank opportunism almost makes me want to support Boris – who I think would be a complete and utter disaster for this country – almost

  16. This will probably see Boris at some point soon announce he will bring it back not as a free vote but as whiped vote.

  17. Fox hunting never went away, it still happens all over the place. The police in the shires have little interest in enforcing the ban even if they had the resources to do so.

  18. Jeremy Hunt has left the government.

  19. This reshuffle is a good old fashioned bloodbath.

  20. Among the various select committee races yesterday, Jeremy Hunt won health.

    He must have amassed nearly all the Tory votes. Difficult to imagine many opposition MPs voting for him after his tenure as Health Secretary.

  21. Or possibly not, given that I’ve just checked and his sole opponent was Anne-Marie “woodpile” Morris…

  22. His majority really slumped in the GE.

  23. It happened in quite a few stockbroker Surrey seats – Esher, Guildford, Mole Valley – and it is quite bizarre that the Tories can rack up bigger majorities in unfashionable places like Goole, Brownhills and Cannock – but it’s the way the world’s going –

    There’s no evidence yet that these more affluent seats will ever be as fruitful for the Lib Dem’s or labour in the future as their equivalent seats in the US are for the Democrats.

    Unfortunately for labour it seems we are only halfway through our electoral realignment

  24. This is concerning

  25. One thing about those unfashionable, very leave seats is that the Libdem vote in them was already very low and fell even further and the UKIP vote went to the Tories. This explains the surprisingly big Tory shares of the vote in them.

  26. “There’s no evidence yet that these more affluent seats will ever be as fruitful for the Lib Dem’s or labour in the future as their equivalent seats in the US are for the Democrats.”

    Because the Democrats do not have a policy platform of massive tax and spending increases, huge indiscriminate nationalisation, rampant antisemitism, sequesting private property, or a reluctance to ever say anything nice about their country. (Some individual Democrat politicians have such views, but not mainstream candidates for senior national office…this might of course change if Sanders gets the nomination).

    Stockbroker belt seats like this could only ever vote Labour under an uber Blairite leader. They won’t vote LD if there is a risk of that letting in a left wing Labour government. In the current environment they’ve no choice but to grit their teeth and vote Tory.

  27. Conversely, the Conservatives don’t (yet) offer the electorate the paleoconservative Bible-belt wingnuttery of the GOP, and so are less repugnant to stockbroker types.

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