East Surrey

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32211 (57.4%)
Labour: 6627 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 5189 (9.2%)
Green: 2159 (3.8%)
UKIP: 9553 (17%)
Independent: 364 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 22658 (40.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey. The whole of the Tandridge council area and part of the Reigate and Banstead council area.

Main population centres: Caterham, Warlingham, Horley, Smallfield, Lingfield, Limpsfield, Oxted, Godstone, Bletchingley, Woldingham.

Profile: The whole of Tandridge council area and the neighbouring commuter town of Horley, just outside Gatwick airport (a major employer in the seat). The seat is a collection of extremely affluent commuter towns and villages in the London green belt, set amongst the North Downs countryside.

Politics: A very safe Conservative seat. It was most famously represented by former Chancellor and Foreign Secretary Geoffrey Howe, who was the MP here between 1974 and 1992. He was replaced by Peter Ainsworth, who served in the shadow cabinets of William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and David Cameron but retired in 2010..

Current MP
SAM GYIMAH (Conservative) Born 1976, Beaconsfield. Educated at Freman College and Oxford University. Former businessman and entrepreneur. First elected as MP for East Surrey in 2010. PPS to David Cameron 2012-2013, Government whip 2013-2014. Undersecretary for Education since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 31007 (57%)
Lab: 4925 (9%)
LDem: 14133 (26%)
UKIP: 3770 (7%)
Oth: 805 (1%)
MAJ: 16874 (31%)
Con: 27659 (56%)
Lab: 7288 (15%)
LDem: 11738 (24%)
UKIP: 2158 (4%)
Oth: 410 (1%)
MAJ: 15921 (32%)
Con: 24706 (53%)
Lab: 8994 (19%)
LDem: 11503 (24%)
UKIP: 1846 (4%)
MAJ: 13203 (28%)
Con: 27389 (50%)
Lab: 11573 (21%)
LDem: 12296 (22%)
Oth: 742 (1%)
MAJ: 15093 (28%)

2015 Candidates
SAM GYIMAH (Conservative) See above.
DAVID LEE (Liberal Democrat) Contested East Surrey 2010.
HELENA WINDSOR (UKIP) Contested East Surrey 2010.
SANDY PRATT (Independent)
Comments - 78 Responses on “Surrey East”
  1. Winds of Change I don’t see how Labour will get 16.4% in this seat or anywhere else in Surrey with the exception of maybe Epsom and Ewell or Spelthorne.

    From what I know of Tandridge District it is affluent strongly blue Consevative commuter belt and they will get around 50-55% even if 2015 is a disastrous election for them.

  2. Predicting 46/7% for the Tories may be on the harsh side, I accept. But for the leading party to lose so little of their vote when not exactly having a successful run is just really strange to me. Maybe that’s just how the rural commuter belt works 🙂

  3. Labour I would imagine will take back LD votes and will advance somewhat naturally following the national picture- they got 15% in 2005 after all (not their best year).

  4. I had a minor operation last week, so yesterday I was able to watch BBC Parliament. Sadly, it wasn’t Westminster at its best. The Bishops (Women) Bill ‘attracted’ just 16 MPs including the 3 Frontbenchers and only 8 MPs by the end had stayed to back the Bill. This MP who introduced the Bill was merely reading from a script. Indeed he said Stockport was in the Diocese of Chichester! The MPs who spoke in favour were themselves beneficiaries of positive discrimination such as All Women Shortlists.

  5. bit surprising there was a by-election in whyteleafe ward, tanbridge council yesterday. here’s the result :
    LDEM – 50.0% (+22.8)
    CON – 34.9% (-7.8)
    UKIP – 15.1% (-4.5)
    l am acquainted with the local vicar, who presumably voted for the winning candidate since he’s left of centre, not a good result for the tories at all, but of course of little or no relevance to the general election.

  6. That is very interesting indeed. Thanks Barnaby.

  7. Was a retake of a ward from which one seat was lost in 2010 and another lost in 2012..

    I suspect the LibDems are going to recapture some council seats that they have seen whittled away over the term of the Coalition govt. That seems likely in Test Valley where I am located.

  8. I very much doubt they will this was a one off by election. However in the 2018 local elections I wouldn’t rule out LD’s regaining council seats then particularly in Kingston.

  9. Conservative Hold. 19,000 maj

  10. It would be interesting to know in how many seats both the Tory and UKIP vote increased, as it did here. A few years ago it would have been assumed that that wouldn’t happen in more than a token handful of constituencies.

  11. There is chat on the Henley thread pointing out that the UKIP vote is high here for a London outskirts seat, for reasons including UKIP representation at local level.

    However, it should be pointed out that UKIP would need a 20% swing to win this seat. This is not likely. UKIP would need a uniform swing of 16.26% to win 150 seats (the 150th. is Devon West and Torridge) and East Surrey is nowhere near this.

    I have an uncomfortable feeling that some of the UKIP vote may be to do with the ethnicity of the MP, and if so I for one want none of it. If the MP is not up to the job their ethnicity should npt exempt them from criticism, as my recent comments for the Maidstone seat reflect, However, Sam Gmiyah is moving up the junior ministerial rungs and he appears to know what he is doing.

    With the exception of Guildford, Surry has been very safe Tory for many years and doesn’t appear likely to desert the Conservatives in anything like the near future.

  12. The better than average UKIP vote for a Surrey commuter seat is probably explained relatively easily by the fact that the constituency borders Kent where the party is much more popular.

  13. UKIP is a bit more popular n West Kent seats like Sevenoaks or Tunbridge Wells than in Surrey, but not all that much more popular and they are nowhere near winning such “stockbroker belt” seats.

    UKIP’s strengths in Kent are in seats nowhere near Sureey, and which are very different demographically.

  14. Why no tributes to Lord Howe?

  15. Geoffrey Howe was not only MP for Surrey East but also MP for Bebington (now Wirral South) from 1964 to 1966 and Reigate from 1970 to Feb 1974.

  16. I didn’t know he was dead. Even so I tend to reserve tributes for people I really, really admired to keep them meaningful. (no disrespect to Lord Howe I should add, I don’t have any strong views on the man so I think it would be disingenuous to write a big tribute now he has passed away)

  17. Solid Con Hold here likely increase in majority to 26,000+

  18. Sam Gyimah has resigned from Government – in the Jo Johnson mode – Rumored to be going next will be Margot James.

  19. # who he actually succeeded as Universites Minster in January.

  20. Again, it must be a bit worrying for May that even Remain voting, centre right non headbangers like Gyimah also do not like the deal.

  21. According to this Daily Telegraph article (apologies to those who can’t access it), Britain’s withdrawal from the Galileo programme, for which he was the Minister, was one of the main reasons for his resignation. He does say, though, that a second referendum should not be ruled out.


  22. Sam Gyimah facing deselection. Brexit a key factor but also complaints of absence from the constituency and lack of interest in the local area.

  23. Sam Gyimah announces he will be the second refrendum candidate in the leadership election – will we get any more Tory MP’s coming out for a second referendum?

  24. In case you’re wondering, he’s available for an oddly specific 341/1 on Betfair.

  25. Sam Gyimah says he’s got the right names required for the next round.

    Is it just second-voters? Following the departure of three of then to Change UK, I’m not sure there are enough left in the Conservative Party for him to get to eight without casting his net slightly wider. I can only think of Dominic Grieve, Philip Lee, Jo Johnson, Justine Greening, and of course Gyimah himself, off the top of my head.

  26. Sorry, thay should say *eight* names.

    One day I will learn how to turn autocorrect off…

  27. That’s impressive as he didn’t look like he did. There are enough 2nd ref Tories but they didn’t all seem to be backing him

  28. BBC says hes pulleyld out. Rory is through though

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