South Suffolk

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27546 (53.1%)
Labour: 10001 (19.3%)
Lib Dem: 4044 (7.8%)
Green: 2253 (4.3%)
UKIP: 7897 (15.2%)
Others: 166 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 17545 (33.8%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Suffolk. The whole of the Babergh council area and two wards from the St Edmundsbury council area.

Main population centres: Sudbury, Hadleigh.

Profile: A long rural seat, stretching horizontally along Suffolk`s border with Essex, from the Shotley penisula south of Ipswich, through the Dedham Vale area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and westwards to Sudbury. The main population centres are the two historic market towns of Sudbury and Hadleigh and the villages clustered around the fringes of Ipswich, like Sproughton and Pinewood.

Politics: A safe Conservative seat, represented by the Conservative frontbencher Tim Yeo between 1983 and his retirement in 2015.


Current MP
JAMES CARTLIDGE (Conservative) Born London. Educated at Manchester University. Former businessman and former journalist. Babergh councillor since 2013. Contested Lewisham Deptford 2005. First elected as MP for Suffolk South in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24550 (48%)
Lab: 7368 (14%)
LDem: 15861 (31%)
UKIP: 3637 (7%)
MAJ: 8689 (17%)
2005*
Con: 20471 (42%)
Lab: 11917 (24%)
LDem: 13865 (28%)
UKIP: 2454 (5%)
MAJ: 6606 (14%)
2001
Con: 18748 (41%)
Lab: 13667 (30%)
LDem: 11296 (25%)
UKIP: 1582 (3%)
MAJ: 5081 (11%)
1997
Con: 19402 (37%)
Lab: 15227 (29%)
LDem: 14395 (28%)
Oth: 211 (0%)
MAJ: 4175 (8%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JAMES CARTLIDGE (Conservative) Born London. Educated at Manchester University. Businessman and former journalist. Babergh councillor since 2013. Contested Lewisham Deptford 2005.
JANE BASHAM (Labour) Educated at Gravesend Grammar and Suffolk College. Former Chief Executive of Ipswich and Suffolk Council for Racial Equality. Contested Suffolk police commissioner 2010.
GRACE WEAVER (Liberal Democrat)
STEVEN WHALLEY (UKIP)
ROBERT LINDSAY (Green)
STEPHEN TODD (CPA)
Links
Comments - 186 Responses on “Suffolk South”
  1. The Results

    Do you post on VoteUK or politicalbetting?

  2. No Hemmelig I don’t but I’m well aware of others on here that do. I can’t think of many other blogs really that are so psephologically inclined.

  3. More on the de-selection/selection for MP Tim Yeo.
    S. Suffolk Con Assn. to be balloted, papers out 20/1/14 and counted/declared on Monday 3/2/14. Approx 600 mems in S. Suffolk CA. Report in East Anglian Daily Times today.
    BR

  4. George Osborne and Michael Gove wheeled out to support Yeo. George Osborne commends him for his campaign ( against his party) opposing tolling the A14.

  5. not sure he’s getting much support from Archant readers.

  6. Interesting to see Tim Yeo on the list of Tories who voted for Dominic Raab’s amendment to the Immigration Bill- not necessarily what one might have expected given his past form.

  7. I suppose it would be uncharitable to suggest he might have one eye on his ‘domestic’ problems…

  8. Yeo deselected. 82% Turnout of Assoc membership.

  9. The cock crowed three times and Yeo supported the Raab amendment but didnt save his bacon…

    He and Ann McIntosh cant start a support group..

  10. The self-immolation continues…

    The Tories look more and more like they would rather fight each other than Labour.

  11. ‘Yeo deselected’

    It must be because she’s a woman.
    Oh… wait a minute… 😉

    ‘The Tories look more and more like they would rather fight each other than Labour’

    This isn’t about fighting each other, Rosa.
    Local associations get to choose who their candidate is, it’s as simple as that; and Mr. Yeo has said
    “I will give my full and unqualified support to whoever is chosen as the candidate here in South Suffolk. I wish him or her every success”

    So it sounds as though there won’t be the same sort of damaging navel-gazing here as in Thirsk & Malton.

  12. Rosa Mitchell – I think of the 6 MPs deselected in the past 30 years, 3 have been Labour and 3 Tory. With any luck fewer lazy greedy MPs will be selected in future. John D – absolutely, though Yeo’s currently sunning himself in Egypt so I doubt the electors here will get a full-time MP for another year.

  13. John D… great expression “damaging navel-gazing”… I guess that only happens if one has a laser-beam stare..

  14. Lancs Observer

    I’ve 4 Lab deselected (leaving aside those blocked by central party after expense scandal) since 1997: Bob Waring, Frank Cook (Stockton North), Ann Moffat (East Lothian) and Jane Griffiths (Reading East)

    Tom Cox (Tooting) retired after being forced to open selection.

    Before 1992, several Lab MPs got selected….these were the wild days….

  15. Too bad Hazel Blears escaped deselection back in 2009. There’s someone who would have clearly deserved it.

    With Tim Yeo’s deselection perhaps Jon Ashworth and a few others who took to Twitter on Friday will take back their tweets. It was very naive of them to turn this into a ‘woman problem’.

  16. I wonder if there’s been a case before when an MP who was the beneficiary of a deselection was then him- or herself deselected. I can’t think of one.

  17. Barnaby – that’s true. Let’s hope they’re very careful who is selected here next.

  18. BBC East have covered the story tonight. Comments that most other Suffolk seats have younger MP’s who get attend the Commons and get themselves in the media. Yeo seems to be taking defeat with some grace.

  19. BBC East has covered the story tonight. Comments that most other Suffolk seats have younger MP’s who get attend the Commons and get themselves in the media. Yeo seems to be taking defeat with some grace.

  20. ‘Barnaby – that’s true. Let’s hope they’re very careful who is selected here next’

    I hope they go for open primaries in both seats: It would help quash press stories of local parties wanting a coronation for a specific candidate; make the local populace feel that they’ve got something out of these processes; and give the successfull candidates extra incentive to work as good constituent MPs for everyone.

    I don’t know whether or not that will happen (CCHQ might like the idea for Thirsk & Malton at least).

  21. 30+ years in Parliament ought to be enough for most people. I’m amazed that more MPs aren’t deselected for overstaying their welcome.

  22. “Conservative MP Tim Yeo has suggested his support of gay marriage, tackling climate change and staying in the EU are to blame for his deselection, after members in his South Suffolk constituency narrowly voted to stop him running for parliament again in 2015.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/03/tim-yeo-moderate-tory-mp-deselected

  23. a LibDem in wolf’s clothing…

  24. How predictable that Yeo should try to portray this as being about his ‘principles’. Who is he trying to kid?

  25. “Conservative MP Tim Yeo has suggested his support of gay marriage, tackling climate change and staying in the EU are to blame for his deselection, after members in his South Suffolk constituency narrowly voted to stop him running for parliament again in 2015.”

    I would suspect he’s largely right

    whilst he’s hardly a good poster boy for liberal(ish) Tories – given his previous misdemeanours – there is no doubt that MPs from the moderate wing of the party are always under threat from the local associations if they dare to elebaorate on their moderate views

    Ian Taylor, Crispin Blunt, Anne McIntosh, Robert Walter have all found themselves threatened by de-selection for being perceived as too pragmatic and not right wing enough

    It’s exactly what’s happening with the Republicans in America where long-standing Republican congressmen who are still pretty right wing find themselves losing out to much more conservative candidates

    And as with the Republicans, whilst purging the party of such MPs might satisfy the grassroots, it’s unlikely to help the Tories at the ballot box

  26. I wish people wouldn’t assume the terms moderate and liberal wing as the same. Its not that true. People like Dominic Raab are definitely liberals, but not moderates.

  27. @Tim Jones

    S

  28. Suppose part of the problem is that Yeo is quite posh. This was Lovejoy country in the 1980’s and 90’s but now it’s poorer and more anxious.Local businesses have been squeezed and possibly the locals want someone more like them in Parliament. Lot of anxiety here at the moment about Felixstowe port and whether it will keep going now that London Gateway is open. Yeo was keen for wind power but most of the money for that is going to Europe and China. Passing legislation re gay rights doesn’t put money in pockets the way council house sales did.

  29. Interesting that Crispin Blunt, in an M25 constituency, survived, whereas these other two, much further away from the ultra-liberal capital, were deselected.

  30. ‘People like Dominic Raab are definitely liberals, but not moderates.’

    I think Raab is more of a libertarian – which in many ways is the most right wing form of Conservatism

    He’s certainly no moderate, but neither is he a liberal, unless you are using the 19th century definition

  31. It probably wouldn’t surprise you that I am backing Raab in the event of Cameron standing down next year.

  32. “It probably wouldn’t surprise you that I am backing Raab in the event of Cameron standing down next year.”

    Backing him personally, or predicting that he’s going to win?

    If it’s the latter I’m afraid you’ll be disappointed. The Tories are not going to replace one leader who is too young and too posh with another. If he leaves in 2015, the next leader will be older and greyer than Cameron, and someone who conveys a consciously non-posh non-public school non-former SPAD image.

  33. His father is a Jewish Refugee from Eastern Europe – he isn’t borderline gentry like Cameron by any means. He is just upper-middle class.

    I am backing him personally to the point where I would try to get involved in his campaign if I could. I think he would be a fantastic candidate.

  34. Raab is highly intellectual, very dry economically, very good orator and with sensible modern views about social issues. Eurosceptic through actually thinking about the issues rather than just hating David Cameron or being a bigoted pensioner.

  35. P.S. He went to a state school.

  36. I personally thgink Raab would nbe a disaster and just hammer home the messaage that the Tories are the party of the wealthy even more forcibly

    I still think David Davis would be the best bet if Cameron ;oses in 2015 – although he has had his day, and I suspect the next leader will actually be soneone considrerably more right wing than Davis

  37. I like Raab too – we need more MPs like him and many fewer like Tim Yeo.

  38. I have been very impressed by Dominic Raab. I would have to consider my position if he became leader of the Conservative party

  39. Tim Yeo’s electoral record in South Suffolk-
    1983- 29, 469 (50.6%, -2.6%, 11, 269 (19.3%) majority)
    1987- 33, 972 (53.4%, +2.8%, 16, 243 (25.5%) majority)
    1992- 34, 793 (50.2%, -3.2%, 17, 289 (25.0%) majority)
    1997- 19, 402 (37.3%, -12.9%, 4, 175 (8.0%) majority)
    2001- 18, 748 (41.4%, +4.1%, 5, 081 (11.2%) majority)
    2005- 20, 471 (42.0%, +0.6%, 6, 606 (13.6%) majority)
    2010- 24, 550 (47.7%, +5.7%, 8, 689 (16.9%) majority)

  40. Tim – If his brand of conservatism (well its not really conservatism at all but you know what I mean) is so unpopular then how do you explain his 2010 result. (+13.2%)?

  41. Messages of support for Tim Yeo’s unsuccessful candidacy for the 2015 election:

    http://www.timyeo2015.net/comments.php

    MPs who wrote in support:

    David Cameron
    George Osborne
    Matthew Hancock
    Jonathan Djanogly
    David Amess
    Adam Afriyie
    Hugo Swire
    Ben Gummer
    Michael Gove
    Tony Baldry
    Nick Herbert
    Nick Soames
    Laurence Robertson
    Ian Liddell-Grainger
    Edward Leigh
    Nick Boles
    Richard Benyon
    John Penrose
    Andrew Robathan
    Sajid Javid
    Dan Byles
    Hugh Robertson
    Andrew Murrison
    Charles Hendry
    Alan Haselhurst
    Gary Streeter
    George Young
    Oliver Letwin
    Gregory Barker
    Damian Green
    Simon Burns
    James Clappison
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Field
    Edward Garnier
    Zac Goldsmith
    Cheryl Gillan
    Crispin Blunt
    Dan Poulter
    Peter Aldous
    Therese Coffey
    David Ruffley

  42. With friends like that who needs enemies?

  43. would they have dared ditch an MP if Maggie had sent a “cease and desist” letter to a branch..?

  44. Joe – I think I’d explain that by pointing out that he represents an affluent seat in Surrey. Undoubtedly he got a good result there, but it’s not representative of the rest of the UK, nor do good constituency results necessarily betoken great leadership potential – look at Gordon Brown’s strong results in Cowdenbeath for an example.

  45. “I wonder if there’s been a case before when an MP who was the beneficiary of a deselection was then him- or herself deselected. I can’t think of one.”

    Since formal deselections are so rare I’m sure you’re right, but something very similar happened in Surrey Heath.

  46. I’m not a massive fan of Raab. I don’t doubt his cleverness but his rather clinical neoliberalism doesn’t do much for me-nor I suspect, would it do much for voters who live outside the M25.

  47. Joe R – indeed. A posh set of signatures. Amused that Hancock signs anything GO does. ECB – compare it with Grayling’s result in another Surrey seat then. Labour did well in Scotland in 2010 and all Party leaders did, so Brown’s seat isn’t a relevant one to compare.

  48. 2010 wasn’t the only year Brown had a good result. He consistently polled in the high 50s and low 60s when Labour was falling back much further in other, demographically similar seats.

    A comparison with Epsom & Ewell suggests that the major difference was that Lib Dems were up 5 points there but down 5 points in Esher & Walton. That’s as likely to be down to the varying fortunate of the local Lib Dem parties as it is to be down to the Conservative candidates. None of which changes the fact that getting a strong swing in your favour in an extremely safe Tory seat demonstrates very little about your wider appeal.

  49. ‘I’m not a massive fan of Raab. I don’t doubt his cleverness but his rather clinical neoliberalism doesn’t do much for me-nor I suspect, would it do much for voters who live outside the M25.’

    I totally agree

    And the endosements he has from Runnymead and Pete Whitehead just underline how right wing he really is

    ‘Interesting to see Tim Yeo on the list of Tories who voted for Dominic Raab’s amendment to the Immigration Bill- not necessarily what one might have expected given his past form.’

    Sheer opportunism I would suspect.

    Most on that list are the usual suspects who tend to be anti everything, although I was very surprised to see Richard Fuller’s (Bedford) name on it.

  50. Precisely Tim.

    He is very right wing – but doesn’t come across as medieval in attitude or personally unpleasant.

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