Stretford & Urmston

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12916 (27.8%)
Labour: 24601 (53%)
Lib Dem: 1362 (2.9%)
Green: 2187 (4.7%)
UKIP: 5068 (10.9%)
Others: 252 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11685 (25.2%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Trafford council area.

Main population centres: Stretford, Urmston, Partington.

Profile: Covers the inner city area of Stretford, to the south-east of Manchester and Salford city centres, Urmston (including the areas of Davyhulme and Flixton) and to the south west, beyond the large chemical works at Carrington, the deprived overspill estate of Partington. The northern part of the constituency along the Manchester ship canal is non-residential, and includes the huge Trafford Park, the largest industrial estate in Europe, the Trafford Park retail and leisure complex, the Imperial War Museum North, the Old Trafford football stadium and less romantically, the Davyhulme sewage works.

Politics: Stretford is the more ethnically mixed, inner city and Labour voting part of the ward, while Davyhulme is more middle class and Conservative. Historically Davyhulme gave its name to a Conservative constituency, represented by Winston Churchill (the grandson, not the original). However the balance of this seat, created in 1997, is heavily in Labour`s favour and while a solid rump of Conservative support remains it is unlikely to become a marginal seat again.


Current MP
KATE GREEN (Labour) Born 1960, Edinburgh. Educated at Currie High School and Edinburgh University. Former chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group. Contested Cities of London and Westminster 1997. First elected as MP for Stretford & Urmston in 2010. Shadow Minister for Women since 2015. Recieved an OBE in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12886 (29%)
Lab: 21821 (49%)
LDem: 7601 (17%)
UKIP: 1508 (3%)
Oth: 1094 (2%)
MAJ: 8935 (20%)
2005*
Con: 11566 (30%)
Lab: 19417 (51%)
LDem: 5323 (14%)
UKIP: 845 (2%)
Oth: 950 (2%)
MAJ: 7851 (21%)
2001
Con: 10565 (27%)
Lab: 23804 (61%)
LDem: 3891 (10%)
Oth: 713 (2%)
MAJ: 13239 (34%)
1997
Con: 14840 (30%)
Lab: 28480 (58%)
LDem: 3978 (8%)
MAJ: 13640 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
LISA COOKE (Conservative)
KATE GREEN (Labour) See above.
LOUISE ANKERS (Liberal Democrat)
KALVIN CHAPMAN (UKIP) Born 1974. Educated at Kings College London. Solicitor.
GERALDINE COGGINS (Green)
PAUL CARSON (Population Party)
PAUL BRADLEY-LAW (Whig)
Links
Comments - 39 Responses on “Stretford & Urmston”
  1. I checked out the local Trafford results the other day for this seat. Unless there were any split wards before last week (were there?) it’s uniformly Labour in 6 of the 9 wards. The Tories’ main strength remains firmly in the 2 Davyhulme wards as well as Flixton. They did pretty well in the Urmston ward though.

    Bit of trivia about Stretford & Urmston, Katie Price contested it as an independent in 2001. Not sure what she campaigning about or why it was this seat she chose.

  2. I can help you there Neil. She stood purely for pneumatic self-publicity. And she chose this seat because at the time she was going out with Dwight Yorke of Manchester United.

  3. Barnaby- one wonders what William Gladstone, a former MP for the area, would have made of Ms Price’s candidature. 😀

  4. What are the chances of Labour holding on here in 2015?

    The local results in Trafford were not bad but not exactly great either. Correct me if I’m wrong but I heard they didn’t pick up a single seat in the Local Elections?

  5. Have you SEEN the size of the Labour majorities in the Stretford wards in this constituency? There is no chance whatsover of the Tories winning this seat again on these boundaries. Even in the more socially mixed west of the seat, Labour still won quite easily in the Bucklow St Martins ward & managed to win Urmston (as it has for several years now) too. The Tories have managed to edge Labour out by small margins in several marginal wards in that part of the constituency, in Flixton & the 2 Davyhulme wards, every year since the last general election, which has been infuriating for the latter party in municipal terms, but they sure as hell ain’t gonna win this constituency in the general election.

  6. How can we account for UKIP’s potential gain in this election. I hope they don’t, but suspect they will pick up some votes. Is this likely to be a large number?

  7. “Whig” party candidate Paul Bradley-Law is standing her according to the Independent.

  8. Yeh and according to the candidate list above too. Your point?

  9. Labour Hold. 10,000 majority.

  10. Ladbrokes Odds on Greater Manchester Mayor:

    Andy Burnham 5/4
    Tony Lloyd 3/1
    Sir Richard Leece 6/1
    Ivan Lewis. 20/1
    Tom Bloxham. 25/1
    John Bickley. 33/1
    Bez. 100/1

    I can’t say I’m surprised Burnham has leapfrogged Tony Lloyd to be favourite, especially after the latter said it was “unnecessary and unacceptable” for GMP to train for a suicide bombing in the Trafford Centre using a “Muslim bomber.” GMP responded by apologising if anyone was offended, but they had to base it on every other suicide bombing there had been in Europe.

  11. “Tony Lloyd said it was “unnecessary and unacceptable” for GMP to train for a suicide bombing in the Trafford Centre using a “Muslim bomber.” ”

    Nope

    He criticised the use of the specific words used by the “bomber”. And the Greater Manchester Police quite rightly apologised, because the use of the words was unnecessary from an operational point of view.

  12. Yes, he said the words and the dress were “unnecessary and unacceptable.”

    On NW News, 89% of those who responded disagreed with him, hence he has now slipped from favourite. [Plus his age may be a factor.]

    GMP apologised if any offence was caused.

    They did not apologise for the staging of the event, as it was based on an attack by Daesh/IS, as all other previous attacks in Europe by suicide bombers have been by Islamists.

  13. Obviously there was no need to apologise for staging the event.

    It is the words and the dress which he said were unnecessary.

    The question is whether those words were necessary for rehearsing the response to a terrorist incident. The Police rightly acknowledged that they were not and did not qualify their apology in the way you have (“if any offence was caused”).

  14. The purpose of the exercise was to test the response of emergency services.

  15. Andy Burnham MP has confirmed he’ll be seeking the Labour nomination for GM ‘Metro Mayor.’

    He said it’s, “a Cabinet-level position and so Cabinet experience was essential.”

  16. James E – GMP did indeed say exactly as I have quoted. I have checked the statement twice.

    After Tony Lloyd spoke, a further statement was issued, which I think is what you have read.

    However, a poll showed 89% disagreed with Lloyd’s stance, hence his odds.

  17. And was this NW News Poll be some kind of ‘open access’ poll?

    Or did they engage a proper polling organisation to properly determine the public’s views?

  18. Neither. Given airtime was 3 hours later, they do what they always do and ask around 100 people in the street and read out a few of their comments.

    I agree it’s not an opinion poll of 1,000 with a margin of error of 2% – and they always point that out if results are close – but, they hardly needed that with 89% opposing Lloyd’s stance.

  19. Cllr John Smith (elected as Labour in 2015) from Bucklow St Martins ward has apparently joined the Tories, although he’s listed as Independent on Trafford council’s website.

  20. June 2003:

    ‘ Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.

    A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.

    The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.

    But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: “The number coming here for employment will be minimal.” ‘

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2967318.stm

    June 2016 the consequences are in full bloom.

    Beverley Hughes will have a mention in the history books.

  21. Ivan Lewis has said he’s taken soundings of Cllrs and members in Greater Manchester and that’s why he is calling on Jeremy Corbyn to go.

  22. Stretford and Urmston CLP nominate Cobyn 72-46. Last year they narrowly nominated Burnham. From a source within the CLP momentum are said to be organised and they is a feeling that Kate Green is at risk of deselection.

  23. Hmm and unless I’ve got my Labour MPs horrendously mixed up Green can hardly be described as a ‘Blairite’ either.

    If Momentum (and similar groups) want to ensure Labour doesn’t split if Corbyn wins again and thus potentially throw the left into the political wilderness for a generation then organised deselctions of anyone not on the hard left is completely the wrong way to go about it. But I guess a lot of these people are less worried about this and more concerned about ‘purity’ and punishing the heretics who dare in any way shape or form oppose ‘dear leader’…

  24. She issint. She is soft left ( chair of Owen Smith’s campaign) and someone who my Aqunatance in this CLP (of simmilar views to her) was shocked when she resigned from the shadow cabinet. Personally id be a bit surprised if she is deselcted but there is a possiblity and its likely some soft left MP’s will be or will jump before they are pushed.

  25. I’d be amazed if there were even semi serious whispers about deselecting Green. She’s one of the MP’s that I’d pretty much guarantee will return to the cabinet if/when Corbyn is re-elected, she was part of the “group of 5” soft left cabinet members (the others being Lisa Nandy, Nia Griffith, John Healey and the one and only Owen Smith) who were kept totally in the dark about the coup, initially refused to resign, all met JC together and only resigned because a compromise couldn’t be worked out and they felt his position was untenable.

    Aside from a few nutcases on Twitter (the same people who are calling Owen Jones a Blairite turncoat) I can’t envisage anybody in the Lab party, even Corbyn’s most die hard supporters seriously wanting to de-select Green. Their too bust focusing their attention on the Blairite ultras (for obvious reasons) and Jess Philips (cos she has a real mouth on her) to be bothered with the likes of Green.

  26. My Source is a member of the CLP and he said Momentum isolated them self during the CLP meeting and seemed to have an intent to remove her. Might not be enough to remove her but remember she is now running Smith’s campaign. That makes her an enemy of the hard line corbynista.

  27. Oh and for the record didn’t Stretford and Urmston CLP nominate Cooper last year?

  28. It actually didn’t nominate anyone. They had a meeting and voted not to nomintate. Kate Green i think backed Cooper through.

  29. BM11
    That doesn’t surprise me one bit but here in Liverpool in every CLP (bar Liverpool Walton who just talk about de-selecting every other Liverpool MP) there are talks amongst some about de-selecting the incumbent, none of it amounts to anything serious, more of a silent voicing of their displeasure at the incumbent than any actual strategizing.

    In lots of CLP’s there have been MUCH bigger blow ups over de-selection where important people in the CLP (local councillors, party chairs, trade union reps) have all openly said to the incumbents face the want them gone, no action though has been taken in ay seat as of yet. Hell Rochdale CLP have wanted to de-select Danczuk since before Corbyn even became leader!!! So if the CLP’s that are uniformly against their MP aren’t acting I wouldn’t hold your breath over the likes of Stretford, its probably little more than bluster and grumbling at this point.

  30. Hmmm I’m reading a tweet saying they nominated Cooper? Who knows…

  31. You miss the point. As far as Momentum is concerned, the left was in the political wilderness for thirty years between the defeat of Militant and the election of Jeremy Corbyn.

    As for a split: the “Blairites” (for want of a better word of the 172 MPs who have no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn) definitely don’t want one.

    I’m not so sure about the “Corbynistas” – probably most would want to avoid one too, but some would be more apathetic. John McDonnell, when asked whether he was prepared for a split, is alleged to have said “If that’s what it takes…” – though of course that’s the far-right Murdoch-owned media talking 😉

  32. I’ve been reluctant to make predictions on a split since things are constantly evolving but if I had to guess I’d say the only likely format a split would take (I’m not predicting a split will happen, I honestly don’t know) would be a micro split. That would take the form of Jess Philips sitting as an independent (she’s no Blairite she just hates Corbyn sufficiently that I can’t see her behaving) and a group of maybe between 20-30 core hard-line “moderate” MP’s either also sitting as independents, perhaps forming a new party or perhaps realising the futility of all options and all standing down as MP’s which many on the left would probably welcome since it would result in a clump of by-elections and opportunities to get some more Corbyn sympathetic MP’s into the house.

    As for who’s a part of this hard-line group I’d say Jamie Reed, John Woodcock, Liz Kendall, Ben Bradshaw, Simon Danczuk, Mike Gapes, Margeret Hodge, Ann Coffey, Harriet Harman, Ian Austin, Tom Blenkinsop, Gavin Shuker, Caroline Flint, Siobhan McDonagh and Alsion McGovern are all very likely suspects while Chucka Ummana, Racheal Reeves, Neil Coyle, Chris Bryant, Emma Reynolds, Mary Creagh, Chris Leslie, Mathew Pennycook, Jenny Chapman, Shabana Mahmood, Alan Johnson, Dan Jarvis, Stella Creasy and Frank Field are all possibilities.

    FWIW its telling that of those only Bradshaw, Creasy and Jarvis are a loss to the party and I’d say their easily outweighed by some of the MP’s I mentioned who are active liabilities like Danczuk, Flint, Blenkinsop, Coffey, Woodcock and Reed.

  33. Yeah Britain Elects have corrected their first tweet, it did indeed nominate Yvette last year.

  34. ‘my source’ – what is this Watergate, has your source asked to be kept anonymous in case reporters surround their house in hope of catching them and finding out more about this thrilling tale of deselection

  35. They just an ordinary anti Corbyn member of the CLP.

  36. I disagree with Rivers on the likely dynamics of any split. In the current environment I don’t think the divisions between, say, John Woodcock and Kate Green are very relevant. It has polarised into two camps – pro-Corbyn and anti-Corbyn. The people on the non-Corbynite left of the party (mainly Burnham in 2015), who were generally more willing to see if the Corbyn project could work once he’d been elected leader, are now just as much in the anti-Corbyn camp as 2015 Kendall supporters. Whilst I can foresee some divisions within the PLP on the question of whether or not to split, and what form the split should take, I think those people on the non-Corbynite left who gave JC a chance but have been badly disappointed by his leadership are just as likely to consider to be involved in any split as people on the ‘right’ of the party.

    I would also reiterate what I’ve said before – that Labour MPs from all wings are very tribal, very attached to the party’s history and brand. That is as much true of Mike Gapes as it is of Owen Smith. A split will only happen with very deep reluctance from people on any wing of the party, with the possible exception of the odd maverick going it alone.

  37. I think you are right about the tribal nature which is why I find the split unlikely. I wouldn’t leave no matter who led the party, come what may through thick and thin. Why should anyone else be any less committed to the cause.

  38. Jack
    The main premise of your post is correct that the main camps consist of the Corbyn supporters and the anti Corbyn group but its fatally wrong to presume (as many have but you admittedly have not) that the anti Corbyn group are in anyway united.

    Two issues divide this group, firstly what methods should be taken and how far should one go to oust Corbyn. The moderates I mentioned never have and never will accept Corbyn, he could lead Lab to a landslide victory and they’d still try and return to Blairism first chance they could. There is no such thing as “going too far” to oust Corbyn, to them Corbyn is an existential threat to the party, they would risk destroying the party to get rid of Corbyn because in their minds the party will be destroyed if he stays . For those in the centre and the soft left though this is melodramatic, they have and will try to make it work if no other option presents itself. Worse case scenario from these individuals I believe is to sit on the backbenches for the duration of Corbyn’s leadership, I don’t envisage them ever splitting.

    This leads onto the second issue why there is a big division in the “anti Corbyn camp” The Blairite/Brownite moderates see the issue as much as Corbyn as it is his politics and they actively desire to drag the Lab party rightwards. Those in the centre and soft left though definitely don’t hold this view, pretty much all of them are of the opinion the issue is Corbyn and his team not his policies. Part of the reason they would be very nervous about splitting is many (particularly those of the Kate Green variety) would not be hugely comfortable in a party that thinks Socialism is a dirty word and that Gordon Brown is the furthest left one can go. I fervently believe they’d sooner take up the mantle of the Corbyn Lab parties far right than the “New Labour” parties far left.

    It is for these reasons that I feel that if there is a split it will be limited. I may turn out to be embarrassingly wrong though.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)