Stoke-on-Trent Central
2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)
Category: Safe Labour seat
Geography: West Midlands, Staffordshire. Part of the Stoke-on-Trent council area and part of the Newcastle under Lyme council area.
Main population centres: Stoke, Hanley.
Profile: Stoke-on-Trent is actually an amalgamation of six towns, heavily associated with the industrial pottery industry. The most famous British pottery brands such as Wedgwood and Spode are all based in or around Stoke. This is also a former coal mining area, with the last coal mine in Stoke closing in the 1990s. Stoke-on-Trent Central covers the middle two of the six towns, Stoke and Hanley, which forms the city centre and main retail centre for Stoke as a whole.
Politics: Stoke is a city that is solidly Labour and Stoke-on-Trent Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1950. Tristram Hunt`s select as Labour candidate here in 2010 was controversial, his (even more well-heeled) predecessor Mark Fisher stood down at a late stage due to ill-health meaning a shortlist for the Stoke Central seat was imposed by the national Labour party and did not feature any local candidates. Hunt was returned with a comfortable 17% majority but it is a sign of just how safe this seat was that this was the lowest ever Labour majority here. In 2015 Hunt's majority remained stable, but UKIP replaced the Liberal Democrats in second place.
| Con: | 6833 (21%) |
| Lab: | 12605 (39%) |
| LDem: | 7039 (22%) |
| BNP: | 2502 (8%) |
| Oth: | 3491 (11%) |
| MAJ: | 5566 (17%) |
| Con: | 4823 (17%) |
| Lab: | 14760 (53%) |
| LDem: | 4986 (18%) |
| BNP: | 2178 (8%) |
| Oth: | 1160 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 9774 (35%) |
| Con: | 5325 (19%) |
| Lab: | 17170 (61%) |
| LDem: | 4148 (15%) |
| Oth: | 1657 (6%) |
| MAJ: | 11845 (42%) |
| Con: | 6738 (17%) |
| Lab: | 26662 (66%) |
| LDem: | 4809 (12%) |
| Oth: | 965 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 19924 (50%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
It’s too early to be making that kind of call, but I expect Labour will win.
Early days but lots of hints that Labour have held on here. According to David Dimbleby’s “information” Labour have won the seat.
Well UKIP are bound to win now!
Carswell says he thinks labour have won again
What channel is Dimbleby on?
Carswell is being very assertive on question time in writing this one off.
Sky News: turnout in Stoke could be as low as 25%.
Is Angela rayner really a leadership hopeful!
I agree she’s not leadership material…..but actually compared to Rebecca Long-Bailey…….need I say more…..
Thanks to Quint and Thorshammer3 for their updates today
Apparently the postals breakdown as 31% Labour 29% UKIP 29% Conservative
Blimey that’s close
That’s a lot closer than I’d expect, UKIP have done well to mobilize postal support
If postals are that close then differential turnout could scupper Labour.
I didn’t think postals were counted separately though.
This is where the US and Canada do Election Night better with partial results declared and the drama of the numbers changing as the evening goes on
If true that looks very worrying for Lab to me… but I haven’t seen that reported.
they tend to verify the postal votes before election day
@ NTY, what is your source for postal breakdown?
LDs saying Lab, Kip, Con here
Matt, verify, but not count.
Normally the postal votes should not be counted separately, but a good scrutineer can tell how they are falling -though not to that degree of accuracy.
parties do tend to tally up postal votes when they are being verified
“@ NTY, what is your source for postal breakdown?”
Labour councillor Sam Stopp on twitter.
38% turnout
Only if they open them face up
UKIP usually do better with votes cast on the day as opposed to postal votes. For example they got most votes on the day in the Eastleigh by-election and only lost the seat because of postals.
If that was the case (that this PV % tally was made from verification occurring yesterday), why wasn’t this info leaked yesterday (or at least spread in dampened expectations), and publicly shared in % form as soon as polls closed today?
That turnout figure is quite high – decline on the GE only 12%.
Stoke-on-Trent twitter:
“The voter turnout for the #StokeCentral by-election is confirmed at 38.16% total votes 21,200, postal 4,335 & poll 16,865 votes”
Who would have guessed turnout in Stoke Central would be higher than at Sleaford & North Hykeham?
Sleaford and North Hykeham was always going to be a Tory Hold.
Apparently Labour’s majority in Stoke will be a ‘few thousand’
a few thousand on this turnout could be around 14% majority
Matt,
8-5-5-2 + others?
I thought UKIP and Tories might be around 5k it would be in line with the fall in the turnout
Stoke Sentinel reporter there says it’s a 2 horse race (Labour v UKIP), Brereton out of it. Labour just ahead by the looks of it.
So Matthew Hancock didn’t know the Tory candidates name
declaration might be soon
I’m probably going to bed now I’m knackered I’ll leave the radio on
Stoke is about to declare!
Clearly not in recount territory then. . .
Nuttal – “If I haven’t won it’s because I didn’t get enough votes.”
Now THAT’S the sort of insight we need from our MPs!
Lol. Well at least he’s honest about one thing…
Actually sounds like quite a good answer to shut a journalist up. Hard to argue with!
And let’s not reopen discussion on Nuttall’s honesty / dishonesty vs smears etc. . .
Solid hold with a 12.4% majority. Maybe the Tories will be ruing that they didn’t try harder earlier; they could easily have taken 2nd and maybe run Labour close if they had.
Labour knew what was going on, diverting resources to Copeland late on.
Nutall was nearly beaten by the Tories lol.
Still a pretty pathetic result for Labour. There was a Lab to Con swing when the latter didn’t even really try.
Stoke-on-Trent Central – Labour HOLD
Gareth Snell (Labour Party): 7,853 (37.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UK Independence Party): 5,233 (24.8%)
Jack Brereton (Conservative Party): 5,154 (24.5%)
Zulfiqar Ali (Liberal Democrats): 2,083 (9.9%)
Adam Colclough (Green Party): 294 (1.4%)
Barbara Fielding (Independent): 137 (0.7%)
The Incredible Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party): 127 (0.6%)
David Furness (British National Party): 124 (0.6%)
Godfrey Davies (Christian Peoples Party): 109 (0.5%)
Mohammad Akram (Independent): 56 (0.2%)
Majority: 2,620 (12.4%)
Valid votes: 21,061
Poor result for Labour.
Change:
Liberal Democrats +5.7
UK Independence Party +2.1
Conservative Party +2.0
Labour Party -1.7
Green Party -2.2
4% swing Lab to LD
Otherwise smaller swings to Ukip and Tory but surprisingly little happening
In my opinion the only parties who can really be pleased with their performances are the Tories and the Lib Dems.
Bye plopwell, you did promise you’d leave us forever. BYE.
A decent result for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems. It does little to change the current political position of these three parties. Labour held on, the Conservatives did very well for a party in government, and the Lib Dems gained the most, but not enough to claim a breakthrough. Given expectations, none of them lost out.
A big lost opportunity for UKIP. Where do they go from here? And the Green campaign did not take hold.