Stoke-on-Trent Central
2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)
Category: Safe Labour seat
Geography: West Midlands, Staffordshire. Part of the Stoke-on-Trent council area and part of the Newcastle under Lyme council area.
Main population centres: Stoke, Hanley.
Profile: Stoke-on-Trent is actually an amalgamation of six towns, heavily associated with the industrial pottery industry. The most famous British pottery brands such as Wedgwood and Spode are all based in or around Stoke. This is also a former coal mining area, with the last coal mine in Stoke closing in the 1990s. Stoke-on-Trent Central covers the middle two of the six towns, Stoke and Hanley, which forms the city centre and main retail centre for Stoke as a whole.
Politics: Stoke is a city that is solidly Labour and Stoke-on-Trent Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1950. Tristram Hunt`s select as Labour candidate here in 2010 was controversial, his (even more well-heeled) predecessor Mark Fisher stood down at a late stage due to ill-health meaning a shortlist for the Stoke Central seat was imposed by the national Labour party and did not feature any local candidates. Hunt was returned with a comfortable 17% majority but it is a sign of just how safe this seat was that this was the lowest ever Labour majority here. In 2015 Hunt's majority remained stable, but UKIP replaced the Liberal Democrats in second place.
| Con: | 6833 (21%) |
| Lab: | 12605 (39%) |
| LDem: | 7039 (22%) |
| BNP: | 2502 (8%) |
| Oth: | 3491 (11%) |
| MAJ: | 5566 (17%) |
| Con: | 4823 (17%) |
| Lab: | 14760 (53%) |
| LDem: | 4986 (18%) |
| BNP: | 2178 (8%) |
| Oth: | 1160 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 9774 (35%) |
| Con: | 5325 (19%) |
| Lab: | 17170 (61%) |
| LDem: | 4148 (15%) |
| Oth: | 1657 (6%) |
| MAJ: | 11845 (42%) |
| Con: | 6738 (17%) |
| Lab: | 26662 (66%) |
| LDem: | 4809 (12%) |
| Oth: | 965 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 19924 (50%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
It would be absolutely hilarious if UKIP came fourth
There’s no chance of that, the LDs are starting too far behind on 4%.
Got stuck in wellingborough today, not the day to commute
I think if UKIP’s campaign is, to coin a euphemism, “totally Nuttalled” by the truth economies around Hillsborough and house-dodging, and the LDs get the vote out well, it’s not impossible that UKIP could collapse to fourth. I don’t think it’s *likely*, but I think we’re talking one in twenty not one in a hundred sort of odds at this point.
George Eaton says Lib Dems and Tories predict UKIP are third
Yes- I’m now expecting UKIP to finish 3rd, too.
3rd would surprise me if it reflected a big Labour lead, if I’m honest.
Though not so much if it was through a Thurrock-esque clustering.
Something in me still thinks it’s Labour turnout that will by far suffer the most, and so UKIP will still manage to be a message-sending outlet, enough to be able to scrape a win on 10% or singular digits.
I don’t think it’s yet nailed down.
UKIP in third might reflect a good CON score? If they have a bad day and Brexit voters decide the Tories are a better bet, UKIP could drop to the mid teens and thereby propel the Tories to the high twenties, with Labour in the low thirties and LDs scraping just over 10%, for example. But low turnout could mess things around a very great deal.
Having been out and about in stoke id be surprised if UKIP finished any higher then 3rd. Paul Nuttal has run an absolute shambolic campaign.
Would have loved a UKIP win to shake things up however, Id be very surprised if they came within 1500 votes of labour.
Odds for stoke have recently gone in Labours’ favour, from around 1/2 to 1/4 now and Ukip has gone from 2 to 3. Do the bookies know something we don’t?
I was in this seat on Saturday and Sunday visiting a friend. There was absolutely no sign whatsoever that a by-election was imminent. No activists campaigning, no posters in shops or homes…… absolutely nothing apart from one middle-aged woman wearing a small Lib Dem sticker on her coat looking as miserable as sin walking along Trinity Street in the city centre on Saturday. If I wasn’t abreast of current affairs, I wouldn’t have known a by-election was about to take place in this seat!
Labour could lose this by-election due to sheer apathy rather than another reason such as the unpopularity of Corbyn or Brexit! The result will come down to which party is able to ethuse people to make a trip to their nearest polling station.
Labour hold. Been out all day. Volunteers believe they’ve got it.
Do you have a rough estimate for the Labour share of the vote? Higher or lower than last time when it was 39%?
JAMES BAILLEE –
“UKIP in third might reflect a good CON score? If they have a bad day and Brexit voters decide the Tories are a better bet, UKIP could drop to the mid teens and thereby propel the Tories to the high twenties, with Labour in the low thirties and LDs scraping just over 10%”
That’s certainly what one might expect, based on national polling- Labour dropping a little, and UKIP losing a good chunk to the tories.
The truth of it is, nobody’s got a clue.
ITN reporting Labour hoping to edge this. Not a good situation for a party defending a by-election after 7 years in opposition.
Did the most marginal ward today. Labour were ahead there. The storn has really affected things. Lots saying it’s too cold. I couldn’t possibly walk 250 yards down the road and take seven minutes out of my day haha
Having been campaigning today. Labour will win, and it won’t be close. This talk of Tories coming second is nonsense though.
Dimblemby says he has heard labour have won stoke
It’s too early to be making that kind of call, but I expect Labour will win.
Early days but lots of hints that Labour have held on here. According to David Dimbleby’s “information” Labour have won the seat.
Well UKIP are bound to win now!
Carswell says he thinks labour have won again
What channel is Dimbleby on?
Carswell is being very assertive on question time in writing this one off.
Sky News: turnout in Stoke could be as low as 25%.
Is Angela rayner really a leadership hopeful!
I agree she’s not leadership material…..but actually compared to Rebecca Long-Bailey…….need I say more…..
With Lab set to hold both seats it looks like it will be quieter on here without Maxim’s incessant spamming
Thanks to Quint and Thorshammer3 for their updates today
Apparently the postals breakdown as 31% Labour 29% UKIP 29% Conservative
Blimey that’s close
That’s a lot closer than I’d expect, UKIP have done well to mobilize postal support
If postals are that close then differential turnout could scupper Labour.
I didn’t think postals were counted separately though.
This is where the US and Canada do Election Night better with partial results declared and the drama of the numbers changing as the evening goes on
If true that looks very worrying for Lab to me… but I haven’t seen that reported.
they tend to verify the postal votes before election day
@ NTY, what is your source for postal breakdown?
LDs saying Lab, Kip, Con here
Matt, verify, but not count.
Normally the postal votes should not be counted separately, but a good scrutineer can tell how they are falling -though not to that degree of accuracy.
parties do tend to tally up postal votes when they are being verified
“@ NTY, what is your source for postal breakdown?”
Labour councillor Sam Stopp on twitter.
38% turnout
Only if they open them face up
UKIP usually do better with votes cast on the day as opposed to postal votes. For example they got most votes on the day in the Eastleigh by-election and only lost the seat because of postals.
If that was the case (that this PV % tally was made from verification occurring yesterday), why wasn’t this info leaked yesterday (or at least spread in dampened expectations), and publicly shared in % form as soon as polls closed today?
That turnout figure is quite high – decline on the GE only 12%.
Stoke-on-Trent twitter:
“The voter turnout for the #StokeCentral by-election is confirmed at 38.16% total votes 21,200, postal 4,335 & poll 16,865 votes”
Who would have guessed turnout in Stoke Central would be higher than at Sleaford & North Hykeham?
Sleaford and North Hykeham was always going to be a Tory Hold.
Apparently Labour’s majority in Stoke will be a ‘few thousand’
a few thousand on this turnout could be around 14% majority