Stoke-on-Trent Central

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands, Staffordshire. Part of the Stoke-on-Trent council area and part of the Newcastle under Lyme council area.

Main population centres: Stoke, Hanley.

Profile: Stoke-on-Trent is actually an amalgamation of six towns, heavily associated with the industrial pottery industry. The most famous British pottery brands such as Wedgwood and Spode are all based in or around Stoke. This is also a former coal mining area, with the last coal mine in Stoke closing in the 1990s. Stoke-on-Trent Central covers the middle two of the six towns, Stoke and Hanley, which forms the city centre and main retail centre for Stoke as a whole.

Politics: Stoke is a city that is solidly Labour and Stoke-on-Trent Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1950. Tristram Hunt`s select as Labour candidate here in 2010 was controversial, his (even more well-heeled) predecessor Mark Fisher stood down at a late stage due to ill-health meaning a shortlist for the Stoke Central seat was imposed by the national Labour party and did not feature any local candidates. Hunt was returned with a comfortable 17% majority but it is a sign of just how safe this seat was that this was the lowest ever Labour majority here. In 2015 Hunt's majority remained stable, but UKIP replaced the Liberal Democrats in second place.

Current MP
TRISTRAM HUNT (Labour) Born 1974. Educated at University College School and Cambridge University. Former Historian, journalist and broadcaster. First elected as MP for Stoke on Trent Central in 2010. Shadow Education Secretary 2013-2015. Declined to serve under Jeremy Corbyn.
Past Results
Con: 6833 (21%)
Lab: 12605 (39%)
LDem: 7039 (22%)
BNP: 2502 (8%)
Oth: 3491 (11%)
MAJ: 5566 (17%)
Con: 4823 (17%)
Lab: 14760 (53%)
LDem: 4986 (18%)
BNP: 2178 (8%)
Oth: 1160 (4%)
MAJ: 9774 (35%)
Con: 5325 (19%)
Lab: 17170 (61%)
LDem: 4148 (15%)
Oth: 1657 (6%)
MAJ: 11845 (42%)
Con: 6738 (17%)
Lab: 26662 (66%)
LDem: 4809 (12%)
Oth: 965 (2%)
MAJ: 19924 (50%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
LIAM ASCOUGH (Conservative)
TRISTRAM HUNT (Labour) See above.
ZULFIQAR ALI (Liberal Democrat) Cardiologist. Contested Stoke on Trent South 2010.
MARK BREEZE (Independent)
Comments - 1,425 Responses on “Stoke-on-Trent Central”
  1. Polltroll

    You could do plenty worse. I find the old have more depth to them on the whole, and often make the best company.

    Segregation of the generations is a significant cause of society’s ills IMHO.

    And it’s not like you went to your local knitting club. . .

  2. POLLTROLL – you made me laugh thanks.

    As for Gloy, surely LD should seek an alliance with UKIP? For e.g; Clegg, and Nuttall are so similar in personality.

  3. Joe

    What is this reference to ‘calling out for paper’? I never quite get it, guess there’s a story behind it from a count or something?

  4. BT..he’s calling out for loo rolls.

    BT..did you have any bets on the by elections?

  5. Thanks, and no I didn’t have any bets. If anything I would have bet on Labour holds, but wasn’t enough genuine news from the ground to get much certainty.

    Did you?

  6. Yeah. .lost on turnout in Stoke <34%. Had a good amount on CON in Copeland in early January and the CON/LAB dbles.

    Just a word about the betting. .. betting odds have been criticised here lately but actually in these two by elections they've been quite a good guide.

    Conservatives went off 73% favourites in Copeland and Labour went off 68% favourites in Stoke. Both winners were big favourites in each of their seats from 2-3 weeks ago

  7. BT: I wholly agree that the generation gap is the biggest division in British society – and the problem is that there are so many different causes of this that no single action can heal it.

    We don’t spend our money on the same things. We don’t share the same cultural reference points. We don’t talk about the same things, or even in the same language. We don’t fill our spare time in the same way, or have the same amount of spare time to fill. We don’t communicate in the same way, and the isolating effect of different communication platforms means we end up not speaking to each other at all. We don’t think the same way, or act the same way, and we certainly don’t vote the same way – which causes election results to be very highly divisive. Then who ever wins looks after their own voters, creating further resentment, and the cycle continues…

  8. Next time (2020) this seat will be going. ..
    – not Con – sorry Plop;
    – not UKIP – not even if Farage returns as Leader;
    – definitely not LD – sorry original plop;
    – not even Lab – Gareth Snell will be looking for a new job;
    ….in the history book.

    Which explains why predicting results for 2020 on existing boundaries is a complete waste of time.

  9. PAUL H-J – Ah…..I see you haven’t ruled out a shock Green victory?

  10. I liked Poll Troll’s interesting, if somewhat gloomy post about the generation gap. I am an exception to the rule in that I am a millennial by birth but not by lifestyle or outlook (I am a young fogey and a mortgagor). Therefore whilst I can understand some of my generation’s gripes, I tend to make common cause with older people on most issues.

  11. I thought it was a pretty feeble whinge really, which could have been indulged in by anyone in a younger age group at any time over the last century or so.

    Probably longer.

  12. “I thought it was a pretty feeble whinge really…”

    Hear, hear!

    Though, in all serious, my point was not the whole “baby boomers have ruined my life” rant you would get from some of my “progressive” peers, who seem to think that demonising old people is fine. It is merely that we are very different – society is delineated by age more than by any other demographic marker.

    Indeed, it is this stratification by age that leads to the cognitive dissonance whereby young people who are generally so inclusive can be so dismissive of the old. A century ago white people didn’t mix with black people and that meant most white people were racist. Now young and old don’t mix and that leads to intergenerational grievances.

  13. Is it really any different from say the 1960s?

  14. Yes. In the 1960s there was less mixing across all identity and class divisions. The working classes, for example, had a social life based largely around their work – after a day down t’ pit they would retire to a union-sponsored drinking establishment – and this kept the working classes siloed away from the middle classes. Immigrant communities often had a poor grasp of English and hence kept to each others’ company. Integration is far from perfect nowadays but it is certainly better, and Facebook & friends are accelerating its development (at least among youths).

    But the one area where this is not true is age. Family no longer defines us in the way that it used to – indeed one of the failures of traditional conservatism over the last fifty years is the collapse of the nuclear family as a basis for the growth of society. (It says something that people barely even think of the family as a conservative ideal any more.) As families have grown ever more distant, with most millennials now only seeing their elder relatives at occasional family get-togethers, which they attend out of a sense of obligation rather than enthusiasm – and when they do appear, elderly people present to the younger generation a test of endurance (“Sorry, what did you say?” “I SAID I THINK YOU NEED TO TURN YOUR HEARING AID ON!”), rather than a source of wisdom. As a result, young people treat the elderly as an “other”, in much the same way that white, working-class communities treat immigrants – in both cases it’s because they never actually see them in real life.

  15. Nah.

    When my father was in his 20s in the 1960s he didn’t hang out with old people. Nor did I when I was in my 20s. I often got bored visiting older relatives as well. I get bored with my father’s deafness now as well.

    None of this is new.

  16. “PAUL H-J – Ah…..I see you haven’t ruled out a shock Green victory?”
    In terms of “Swing required” technically Stoke Central is/was Green target number #12..

  17. I learnt to sign but then my brothers were born Deaf

  18. Polltroll – the only observations I’d make on your thoughts are:

    there were hardly any (we didn’t mix with black people 100 years ago);

    pensioners only make up 15% (the only reason they exert more political power is that they’re 3 times more likely to vote than young people).

    segregation has actually increased in some areas.

    Where young people do have a tough time is reality: ie all of the things OAPs fear (crime, terrorism and so on) are in fact far more likely to be inflicted upon young people.

  19. No UKIP candidate here. Think it may help labour actually, doubt the core UKIP vote who were planning to cast a ballot for them on June 8th will be that favourable to tories at all.

  20. Apparntley that is not actually true and UKIP are standing here

  21. Yes I was mislead by Election Data tweets. It’s Stoke North and South where they aren’t standing.

  22. This is too good not to share:

    Mad woman is mad. Manifesto pledges 28 (“Israeli terrorist Karl Marx”) and 35 (“The death penalty for anyone using a radio signal to kill or control another human being”) are particularly bonkers. But, in a way, I’m proud that we have an electoral system that doesn’t sneer at such people, that allows them to stand up for what they believe in, and seek to win public support for their platform at the highest level of government.

  23. Barbara Fielding-Morris (who I mentioned at the time of the by-election) has been jailed for 6 months for inciting Anti-Semitic racial hatred.

  24. The likes of Gareth Snell may well deeply regret not voting for May’s deal when a no deal occurs.

  25. The BBC visited Stoke and said only North and South are marginals. The most likely outcome is all three seats are going tory with stoke south having a good chance of a five figure majority.

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