Stalybridge & Hyde

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11761 (28.7%)
Labour: 18447 (45%)
Lib Dem: 1256 (3.1%)
Green: 1850 (4.5%)
UKIP: 7720 (18.8%)
MAJORITY: 6686 (16.3%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Tameside council area.

Main population centres: Stalybridge, Hyde, Mossley, Hollingworth, Mottram.

Profile: A collection of traditional working class mill towns on the eastern edge of the Greater Manchester conurbation, stretching up into the Pennines to the east. Since the second world war several large overspill council estates have also been built here including the large Hattersley estate (now partially demolished and redeveloped), changing the seat from a Labour-Conservative marginal to a safe Labour seat.

Politics: Between the wars this was a Conservative area, and post war in the early 50s and 60s it was an extremely close marginal, though Labour consistently won the seat on sometimes tiny majorities. Since then it has become an increasingly safe Labour seat. Until 2010 it was represented by former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions James Purnell, who resigned from the cabinet in protest at Gordon Brown`s continuing leadership and stood down from Parliament at the subsequent election.


Current MP
JONATHAN REYNOLDS (Labour) Born 1980, Sunderland. Educated at Manchester University. Former solicitor. Tameside councillor 2007-2011. First elected as MP for Stalybridge & Hyde in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13445 (33%)
Lab: 16189 (40%)
LDem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (6%)
Oth: 2021 (5%)
MAJ: 2744 (7%)
2005*
Con: 9187 (26%)
Lab: 17535 (50%)
LDem: 5532 (16%)
BNP: 1399 (4%)
Oth: 1661 (5%)
MAJ: 8348 (24%)
2001
Con: 8922 (28%)
Lab: 17781 (55%)
LDem: 4327 (14%)
UKIP: 1016 (3%)
MAJ: 8859 (28%)
1997
Con: 10557 (25%)
Lab: 25363 (59%)
LDem: 5169 (12%)
MAJ: 14806 (34%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARTIN RILEY (Conservative)
JONATHAN REYNOLDS (Labour) See above.
PETE FLYNN (Liberal Democrat)
ANGELA MCMANUS (UKIP)
JENNY ROSS (Green)
Links
Comments - 44 Responses on “Stalybridge & Hyde”
  1. Since no one has commented on this seat, I shall kick things off.

    The Conservatives had a good result here in 2010, with Rob Adlard coming very close to Labour Councillor Jonathan Reynolds who had to deal with the fallout from James Purnell.

    The seat is made up of Hyde Godley, Newton and Werneth wards, Stalybridge North and South, Dukinfield/Stalybridge and Longdendale wards, the latter is very similar to the High Peak villages which it neighbours on to. Labour have made strong progress in Tameside since 2010 and appear to be winning everything in front of them including knocking out the Tory Councillors in Dukinfield/Stalybridge and Stalybridge North and in 2012 they won the Tory stronghold of Hyde Werneth.

    Interestingly the BNP vote was quite high in 2010, I’d imagine UKIP and Labour to mop up most of that support. I also note the Lib Dems did not put up a single candidate in Tameside in 2011 and 2012, could they lost their deposit here?

  2. A very interesting post. From what you say, this seat includes more of the rural peak fringe than I realised. Perhaps that is why the Tories are still surprisingly strong in the seat. Is Guide Bridge in this seat or is it in Denton & Reddish?

  3. I think Guide Bridge is in Ashton under Lyme constituency, even though most people consider it part of Audenshaw which is indeed in Denton and Reddish.

  4. OK thanks. It looks a very grim place from the train, partly due to the derelict rail depot and yards which were demolished in the early 1980s.

  5. Audenshaw is very nice, my son used to play Rugby at Aldwinians when he was younger. I don’t know Ashton that well apart from Ikea!

    Audenshaw used to return Tory and Lib Dem Councillors here throughout the 80s, 90s and 00s. Labour appear to have finished them off here, although a Labour Councillor did defect to the Conservatives after he was deselected a few months back….

  6. Prediction for 2015-
    Reynolds (Labour)- 50%
    Conservative- 31%
    Liberal Democrats- 7%
    UKIP- 6%
    Green- 2%
    Others- 4%

  7. Longdendale is really the only ward with semi-rural characteristics. It isn’t a poor area & seems to give Labour consistent but generally fairly narrow wins, & I’m pretty sure it was held by Reynolds until he was elected to Parliament. The rest of the seat is a mixture of generally pretty working-class terraces & interwar semis for the most part. I have visited this seat in order to visit some extremely satisfactory licensed premises including a pub tied to my beloved Holts of Manchester in the middle of Hyde.

  8. Longdendale includes a large part of Hattersley which is very deprived and made this one of the safest Labour ward s in this seat. It has become less safe over recent years partly as a consequence of the demolition of much of that estate

  9. Longdendale was indeed Jonathan Reynolds seat, it was also Roy Oldham’s seat whilst he was the Council leader for 30 odd years.

    After he died in 2010 his seat was held by Labour in the byelection.

  10. This is an interesting seat.

    Hattersley is not really characteristic of Longdendale. The rest of it consists of three villages: Mottram; Broadbottom; and Hollingworth. These are heavily Pennine in character, right down to the Methodist chapels and grey stone cottages.

    Stalybridge South also has some well-heeled semi-rural neighbourhoods (with some new-build executive type housing). You see properties there in Cheshire Life from time to time (at the risk of mounting a familiar hobby horse, the area is part of traditional Cheshire). As such, it doesn’t surprise me that Stalybridge South is a reasonably reliable Tory ward (even in 2012 they carried it by 16% over Labour).

    I don’t think a future Tory win here is inconceivable but it would have to be in the context of a pretty large win nationally. And two out of the three Hyde wards look very solid for Labour, even in 2010-style conditions.

  11. … and as KingTut quite rightly remarks, Labour have made a very good comeback since the rather poor 2010 general election result.

  12. My forecast for 2015 here:

    Lab 45
    Con 27
    UKIP 14
    LD 6
    Others 8

  13. The LDs have failed to put up any candidates in the Tameside local elections. The council area has a population of about 220,000.

  14. Mess up of nominations or just unable to find candidates?

  15. Unable to find candidates, combined with poor prospects.

  16. “my beloved Holts of Manchester ”

    Aren’t you a MU fan as well Barnaby?

    Have you ever thought of relocating to this area?

  17. Prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 41%
    Con- 31%
    UKIP- 17%
    Lib- 6%
    Green- 4%
    BNP- 1%

  18. Just seen Richard’s comment from months ago. The answer Richard is yes, many times, but as long as I’m married to my present wife – and we’ve just celebrated 25 happy years together – it’s out of the question. She loves London & doesn’t care for Manchester.

  19. Could the Tory vote collapse towards UKIP in northern seats such as this (as it did at the Heywood & Middleton by-election) leaving Labour run precariously close?

  20. Yes the remaining Tory vote in the postindustrial urban north may collapse towards UKIP, but of course it isn’t going to run Labour “precariously close” in any more than a handful of seats, if that. Certainly not here.

  21. The received wisdom at present is that 2020 will be the breakthrough for UKIP if they can take a large number of strong second places next year leaving them the challenger to Labour in their northern seats and to the Tories in much of the south.

    As part of this it must be possible that UKIP could give Labour a fright in a few seats.

  22. I don’t disagree with that, but it would be a brave man to predict 2020 from this far out.

  23. What’s the reckoning we could see the first Green Party candidate to say something stupid and have to resign? Surely it’s not THAT implausible…

    http://order-order.com/2015/03/23/green-party-candidate-in-sick-nazi-cancer-slur/

  24. Labour Hold. 5,000 majority.

  25. http://labourlist.org/2015/06/if-labour-doesnt-take-itself-seriously-no-one-else-will/

    In light of Corbyn’s nomination, Stalybridge & Hyde MP Jonathan Reynolds responded to it on LabourList.

  26. I enjoyed that article. Seems like this guy is one of Labour’s more sensible thinkers.

  27. I thought that aside from the penultimate paragraph, which came across as something of a “eureka” moment, it was a very embittered piece.

  28. l don’t share Robberbutton’s positive views about this particular MP.

  29. I’d never noticed the chap before now Barnaby. What I liked about the piece he’d written was that asking about why we have to spend tens of billions per year on interest, means there is an embryonic trace of someone on the Labour benches beginning to wonder if spending masses of cash is a solution to all our problems.

  30. There was a camp guy with a beard on Newsnight and I only just realised it was James Purnell.

    It seems he now as a top BBC job.

  31. I think he’s been in that job for about 2 years. He resigned his Labour membership. Definite signs of aging in a few years.

  32. Purnell (Lab) 17,016
    Rifkind (Con) 11,263
    Mountshaft (UKIP) 10,841
    Ike (Green) 2,239
    Shipman (SF) 147
    McGuinness (LD) 145

    Lab hold 5,753

  33. Being beaten into 6th by a dead local serial killer really would be humiliation for the LDs

  34. The Tories did quite well here in 2010 and I had some hopes it would chip away further.
    Didn’t work out very well in 2015 though despite being generally up elsewhere.

  35. Jonathan Reynolds was promoted to shadow economic secretary yesterday.

  36. Born and grew up in this constituency.. Usually its a pretty dull Labour hold. I’m interested to hear what think people could happen here given the current polling..

    The Tories seem to have a very solid 30% base and there is a big (19%) UKIP vote to eat in to. In 2010 there was less than 3000 votes in it but then the candidate seemed to get a good bounce in 2015 – possibly due to incumbency. (met him once and he comes accross well in person).

    I’m thinking Labour will hold this but with a slim (<1500) majority.

    Lab – 42%
    Con – 38%
    UKIP – 10%

  37. No Kipper here. This means you will probably need at least 42% of the vote to win here. I can’t see the tories being able to pull that kind of vote.
    The Tory candidate is very young I notice. Would be their Mhairi Black he may actually be even younger!

  38. I know the Tories’ candidate in Sedgefield is very young as well, not sure if she is younger than the candidate here.

    Both of these seats are at most 10% shots for the Tories. Just enough to cause the Labour MPs sleepless nights, but in the end they should be fine.

  39. Not sure why they picked that candidate for Sedgefield. May have thrown away a winnable seat. She seems nice enough though.

    To be fair to Tom Dowse he managed to get himself elected to Stockport council in a ward Marple South which is usually very strong for LD’s. It was the tories only gain on Stockport BC 2016 actually so he must have something about him. Unfortunately it’s hard to imagine he’ll be up to debating the great repeal bill, NHS crisis and pension reform. Sorry Tom.

    The American congress has age limits I think to stop such young candidates running.

  40. This isnt winnable without UKIP taking a chunk of the Labours working class core vote.
    Unless 2017 is another 1931.

  41. I’m thinking it will be 1959 actually.

  42. Estimated 61% Leave vote in this seat to add to Mr Reynold’s concerns.

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