St Albans

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25392 (46.6%)
Labour: 12660 (23.3%)
Lib Dem: 10076 (18.5%)
Green: 2034 (3.7%)
UKIP: 4271 (7.8%)
MAJORITY: 12732 (23.4%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Hertfordshire. Part of St Albans council area and one ward from the Three Rivers council area.

Main population centres: St Albans, Chiswell Green, Bricket Wood, London Colney.

Profile: An affluent commuter town to the north of London. About a fifth of the population commute daily into London, but there is also substantial local employment in the financial industry and distribution. Outside the historic centre of St Albans it is largely leafy suburbia. As well as the city of St Albans itself the constituency includes the countryside to the south and the villages along the M25, including Chiswell Green, Bricket Wood and London Colney.

Politics: Historically St Albans has been a reliable Conservative seat. It was won by Labour in their 1945 landslide but was then Conservative from 1950. The seat was represented by cabinet minister Peter Lilley until 1997 when after boundary changes he followed the town of Harpenden into the new Hitchin and Harpenden constituency. On the new boundaries the seat was won by Labour in 1997, managing a towering swing to take the seat from third place (possibly helped by a well publicised constituency poll in the Observer newspaper during the campaign that showed that Labour was better placed to defeat the Conservatives than the Liberals). The seat was regained by the Conservatives in 2005.


Current MP
ANNE MAIN (Conservative) Born 1957, Cardiff. Educated at Swansea Universiy. Former English and drama teacher. First elected as MP for St Albans in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21533 (41%)
Lab: 9288 (18%)
LDem: 19228 (36%)
UKIP: 2028 (4%)
Oth: 758 (1%)
MAJ: 2305 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16953 (37%)
Lab: 15592 (34%)
LDem: 11561 (25%)
UKIP: 707 (2%)
Oth: 649 (1%)
MAJ: 1361 (3%)
2001
Con: 15423 (35%)
Lab: 19889 (45%)
LDem: 7847 (18%)
UKIP: 602 (1%)
MAJ: 4466 (10%)
1997
Con: 16879 (33%)
Lab: 21338 (42%)
LDem: 10692 (21%)
Oth: 277 (1%)
MAJ: 4459 (9%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNE MAIN (Conservative) See above.
KERRY POLLARD (Labour) Born 1944. Educated at Thornleigh Salesian College and Open University. Former director and chairman of housing associations. St Albans councillor 1982-1997, Hertfordshire councillor 1989-1997. MP for St Albans 1997-2005.
SANDY WALKINGTON (Liberal Democrat) Born Scotland. Educated at Cambridge University. Former director of public affairs for BT and Transport for London, former head of research for the Liberal party. Herfordshire county councillor. Former St Albans councillor. Contested St Albans 1983, 1987, 2010.
CHRIS WRIGHT (UKIP) Retired army officer.
JACK EASTON (Green) Chartered accountant. Contested St Albans 2010.
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Comments - 309 Responses on “St Albans”
  1. @Matt I presume easy Lib Dem hold. They haven’t been seriously challenged here for years. The Tories probably should do better here locally than they do but I imagine you get a lot of local Lib Dem, nationally Tory voters in this ward. I imagine Main was ahead in Clarence last year by a wide margin with the Lib Dems in second and Labour in third.

  2. I too am predicting an LD hold here

  3. Surprised to see no comments here thus far. While I expect the Tories to hold here, I similarly expect both a slight fall in their share and a large increase for the LDs. It’s one that has cropped up from multiple people on the LD target page.

    Heavily remain constituency, staunchly leave MP, and prior to 2015 was trending away from Labour and towards LD at a pace.

    Again, not one I personally think is actually going to fall, but unlike some of the other wild suggestions being banded about, one where you can see where the votes to make it happen would come from.

  4. I’m surprised the LDs are targeting this kind of seat. I’d expect emphasis on seats that have been recently LD, have a high profile incumbent they can get media interest in removing or have a high proportion of metropolitan liberal elites.

    I don’t know much about about personally but perhaps if it has lots of commuting city workers it fulfils the latter condition.

  5. I disagree. If you play the game the same way and never raise the stakes, results will rarely improve.

    If the Lib Dems genuinely believe that the referendum and Brexit process have presented opportunities that did not exist previously, this is precisely the sort of seat they should be going after.

    If they’re wrong then they’re wrong, but what on earth is the point of being a political party if you have convictions about the future and do not act upon them?

  6. Of course, but they have limited resources and are standing in 650 constituencies. I would be starting on making sure the easy goals got put away first before concentrating on harder possibilities.

    Now perhaps they have private polls that tell them the seats they lost 2 years ago are all coming back anyway or perhaps they have some other reason to think it’s worth chasing but to me putting it in their top 4 targets (assuming the torygraph is correct) seems very ambitious.

    But good luck to them.

  7. Its a fair point. But I think their formerly held seats split quite evenly into the three categories of “will fall into their laps”, “contests” and “gone for the time being”.

    On the other hand, this election is probably their only chance to change the landscape in seats where in every respect other than their 2015 performance, the circumstances are conducive to a good result.

    For me, the debate is not “should they be going after such seats?” but “does St Albans fall into that category?”.

  8. I think the Lib Dems will get a good 2nd here, maybe cut the Conservative majority to below 10k

  9. Local share across the constituency Lib Dems 45% Tories 30% Labour 16%

  10. I wouldn’t underestimate the potential Lib Dem swing here. A lot of voters very unhappy with Anne Main.

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