Spelthorne

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24386 (49.7%)
Labour: 9114 (18.6%)
Lib Dem: 3163 (6.4%)
Green: 1724 (3.5%)
UKIP: 10234 (20.9%)
TUSC: 228 (0.5%)
Independent: 230 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 14152 (28.8%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey. The whole of the Spelthorne council area.

Main population centres: Staines, Ashford, Stanwell, Sunbury, Shepperton.

Profile: A suburban seat on the northern edge of Surrey, almost wholly within the M25. It consists of several suburban commuter towns, set between a collection of large reservoirs. While it is an affluent and Conservative area, it is does not quite reflect the leafy detached wealth of most of Surrey - thereare working class neighbourhoods here in Stanwell. The seat is just to the south of Heathrow Airport which is a major factor in the local economy, both as a direct source of employment and in attracting various company headquarters that have based themselves locally. The seat also contains Kempton Park Racecourse and the Shepperton Film Studios.

Politics: Conservative held like all of Surrey, though less monolithically so than some other seats, Spelthorne has been represented by the party for most of the seats history, the only exception being a brief Labour victory in their 1945 landslide..


Current MP
KWASI KWARTENG (Conservative) Born 1975, London. Educated at Cambridge University. Former Investment analyst and author. Contested Brent East 2005, Londonwide list 2008 London elections. First elected as MP for Spelthorne in 2010. Former Chairman of the Bow Group.
Past Results
2010
Con: 22261 (47%)
Lab: 7789 (16%)
LDem: 12242 (26%)
UKIP: 4009 (8%)
Oth: 1003 (2%)
MAJ: 10019 (21%)
2005
Con: 21620 (50%)
Lab: 11684 (27%)
LDem: 7318 (17%)
UKIP: 1968 (5%)
Oth: 239 (1%)
MAJ: 9936 (23%)
2001
Con: 18851 (45%)
Lab: 15589 (37%)
LDem: 6156 (15%)
UKIP: 1198 (3%)
MAJ: 3262 (8%)
1997
Con: 23306 (45%)
Lab: 19833 (38%)
LDem: 6821 (13%)
Oth: 462 (1%)
MAJ: 3473 (7%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
KWASI KWARTENG (Conservative) See above.
REBECCA GEACH (Labour)
ROSIE SHIMEL (Liberal Democrat)
REDVERS CUNNINGHAM (UKIP) Barrister.
PAUL JACOBS (Green)
JULIET GRIFFITH (No description)
PAUL COUCHMAN (TUSC) Contested Spelthorne 2010.
Links
Comments - 88 Responses on “Spelthorne”
  1. Just seen Lancs Observer’s post about Asif Ayub. I used to play Cricket with him, I had no idea he was even involved in politics! Didn’t strike me either as being the sort who’d assault women, but then you never know what goes on behind closed doors.

  2. A Southwark councillor. The LD advance of recent years is set to go into sharp reverse and I would expect them to fall to fourth place here next year

  3. He even retweeted something with a number to a domestic abuse helpline 2 months ago. shocking really.

  4. “The LD advance of recent years is set to go into sharp reverse and I would expect them to fall to fourth place here next year”

    agreed, I think UKIP could even get second here and in Epsom and Ewell too.

  5. Paul Couchman has been reselected for the TUSC. He polled 176 votes last time.

  6. Conservative Hold. 13,000 maj.

  7. In the historical county of Middlesex I have Labour on 22 seats and the Conservatives on 11.

    By historical county, I mean the boundaries prior the creation of the County of London in 1888, so it included Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Kensington & Chelsea RBC, Westminster City Council, Camden LBC, Islington LBC, Hackney LBC and Tower Hamlets LBC.

    The 1888 to 1965 County of Middlesex included Enfield LBC, Barnet LBC (except Barnet), Haringey LBC, Brent LBC, Ealing LBC, Harrow LBC, Hillingdon LBC, Hounslow LBC and the Twickenham part of Richmond Upon Thames LBC. It also included the Spelthorne Borough Council area that is now in Surrey CC.

  8. Kwasi Kearteng has just appeared in the BBC’s Sunday Politics programme where the forthcoming EU Referendum was debated. He said he attended a street party on Saturday for the Queen’s 90th birthday in his constituency. He mentioned that out of 20 people he spoke to regarding the referendum, “the vast majority intended to vote LEAVE”!

    If most residents in an affluent, leafy Surrey seat such as Spelthorne are in favour of LEAVE, then REMAIN are in big trouble!

  9. I think by definition, those at a Royal Street Party would be more patriotic and so this isn’t surprising or representative.

  10. I wouldn’t read much into that personally. Spelthorne is an MOR Middlesex seat rather than Surrey stockbroker territory. If the Leave campaign is cutting through in Surrey Heath et al then Remain certainly does have problems.

  11. Leave certainly is cutting through in East Surrey and Reigate. They aren’t the stockbroker seats of Esher or Mole Valley certainly, but much posher than Spelthorne. Leave is going to do very well in Surrey and Sussex IMO (except Brighton & Hove)

  12. *Kwarteng

    Just realised I spelt Kwasi’s surname incorrectly in my previous post. Sorry.

  13. I happen to be in this constituency today. I would expect it to vote leave because it is a mix of working class blue collar voters in Staines and an elderly population in the better off towns like Sunbury. Partly because it is off the main train route it attracts less wealthy commuters than other parts of Surrey.My Grandma is leaning Leave and I imagine that reflects the views of many well off pensioners here.

  14. As others have said, Spelthorne and Tandridge are leave’s strongest areas in Surrey and had well above average UKIP votes. Guildford is remain’s best area followed by Woking, with the other seven boroughs not having a huge deal between them. But with Scotland, NI and big cities likely to go remain quite comfortably, remain don’t necessarily need to carry Surrey, just get to about 47-48%. If remain won the referendum by a single vote I think they’d do so only carrying Guildford and possibly Woking.

  15. “Leave is going to do very well in Surrey and Sussex IMO (except Brighton & Hove)”

    If Leave cuts through into “winner” areas (such as Surrey) it has probably won IMO.

  16. If only one council area in Surrey votes Leave you’d expect it to be Spelthorne due to the demographics and also the local MP is a Brexit supporter.

  17. Somewhere like Solihull may be a good bellwether. A mixture of very posh areas and council estates in Chelmsley Wood, with everything else in between.

  18. “What is the ultimate bellwether area in this referendum”

    @Maxim Parr-Reid and @Andy J S

    My personal ultimate bellwether for this referendum will be Watford. If LEAVE win in Watford, I think it’ll be game over for REMAIN!

  19. Of the early declaring council in England, Hart and Malvern Hills are projected to be close to the UK outcome.

    Lancaster has also been mentioned as a good pointer.

  20. If Leave win Watford Remain have lost badly. Hanretty’s estimates give it an 8.7% Remain lead.

  21. The demographics would suggest both Watford and Hart will be better than average for Remain. Hart for example is often voted the number one place in the country to live which suggests extreme affluence which is good for Remain.

  22. Imagine the constitutional fall-out if, say, Scotland, Wales and NI all voted remain by something like 53-47 while England voted leave by the same margin leading to a Brexit victory.

    It would get rather entertaining.

  23. ‘which suggests extreme affluence which is good for Remain.’

    I;m not sure if that’s true

    People have long assumed that wealthy, upper middle class places in the UK, particularly in the South East, will be strongly supporting staying in the EU, but I’ve been struck by how many Leave posters there are when I visited such places

    London is entirely different, but outside London the stockbroker belt is considerably more Eurosceptic than many give it credit for

  24. True, especially since the oil price is so low and the SNP don’t have a majority anymore.

    Polls in NI show almost record low %s for joining the Republic.

    I suspect DC thought this fear might work (and it undoubtedly will on some Unionists in both Scotland & NI).

  25. 100% agree with Tim. This has been my observation recently as well.

    No offence at all to Andy JS, but he is suffering the same problem he had on the London mayoral election, namely trying to understand what is going on in the south east whilst sitting in the west midlands. This supposed strong wealthy support for Remain just doesn’t seem to be there, at least in the relatively wealthy areas around me.

  26. Guido Fawkes has an excellent “quote of the day” today, from an unnamed Labour front bencher-

    “It’s like the general election – the polls say it’ll be fine, but on every doorstep someone tells you to f*** off”

    If this really is the state of play in much of the Labour north, then this plus a disappointing Remain vote in the stockbroker belt could easily push Leave over the line.

  27. Let’s not pretend a post-referendum UKIP surge would only hurt Labour. Large numbers of Tory seats in the East of England, East Midlands and South East would be under threat as well.

    It’s very tricky to call. We’ll have to wait and see.

  28. Labour are vulnerable to the fallout of the referendum (whichever way the result is) because of how committed the vast majority of the their members and parliamentarians are to the EU. Post-Brexit it would be much harder for them to accept the Leave decision/the form that the leavers believe Brexit should take than it would be for the Tories. Having said that I agree with MrNameless that the Tories certainly have much to worry about themselves.

  29. And whilst I can see Labour dropping a few points there is a key difference with Scotland which is that Brexit doesn’t unite the Labour-voting coalition in the way Scottish independence did. So whilst they could lose some votes to UKIP/Leave-led Tories the other part of their core vote (young and liberal-minded people) are unlikely to desert them in the near future. In Scotland the SNP were attractive both to working class ex-Labour voters and many younger middle class Labour voters.

  30. Indeed. I don’t think the change in voting patterns will be as drastic as post-indyref but there is certainly a danger that a Remain vote causes some leakage of Tory votes to UKIP, at least until a leaver becomes leader.

  31. Losing more MPs to UKIP is a real possibility if the hard-line right fail to get rid of Cameron but I’d be astonished if the big names you mentioned were prepared to go that way. More likely people like Nadine Dorries, Andrew Bridgen and Stewart Jackson – but all would have to consider public opinion and the chance of winning by-election given the precedent Carswell and Reckless set.

  32. Jackson and Bridgen could have a decent shot of taking their respective seats as UKIP, but only if they could get large chunks of their Association to come with them. Less sure about Dorries.

  33. Kwasi Kwarteng has been appointed a parliamentary under secretary of state in the Brexit department.

  34. Mr Nameless’ comment from 2 and a half years ago hasn’t aged well has it. Jackson couldn’t even hold his seat as a Tory.

  35. To be fair, virtually every comment in (for example) the run up to the 2017 election is a stinker. Including many of my own, it must be said.

  36. Well there were varying degrees of stinker.

    I don’t think anything was stinkier than the vast pile of comments from Maxim Parr Reid. It’s a pity they aren’t here any more. I made many crap predictions myself but laughing at Maxim’s posts about how Brexit would be forgotten by 2019, having created a Tory majority of 200, wasn’t one of them.

  37. Ah Maxim. Thanks for the reminder. He may be deluded, but he’s pushy and spirited. I predict great things.

  38. Kwasi Kwarteng – who had apparently switched his phone off and gone awol – has been – at gone midnight- being appointed a minster in the Business department – with an attending cabinet role.

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