Southampton, Itchen

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18656 (41.7%)
Labour: 16340 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 1595 (3.6%)
Green: 1876 (4.2%)
UKIP: 6010 (13.4%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2316 (5.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire. Part of Southampton council area.

Main population centres: Southampton.

Profile: Southampton is a large container and cruise port on the south coast. This is the eastern of the two Southampton seats, covering the city centre itself and the post-war council and private housing developments in the east of the city. The seat is named after the river Itchen, which runs through Southampton and forms part of the western boundary of the seat.

Politics: Both the Southampton seats have traditionally been marginals, but Itchen was traditionally seen as the more Labour of the two, only having been won by the Conservatives at the height of their power in the 1980s. In recent years the position has reversed, Itchen was the more marginal seat in 2010 and in 2015 it fell to the Conservatives.


Current MP
ROYSTON SMITH (Conservative) Former PR consultant and RAF engineer. Southampton councillor since 2000, former leader of Southampton council. Contested Southampton Itchen 2010. First elected as MP for Southampton Itchen in 2015. Received the George Medal in 2012 for disarming a gunman on board HMS Astute during a visit.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16134 (36%)
Lab: 16326 (37%)
LDem: 9256 (21%)
UKIP: 1928 (4%)
Oth: 768 (2%)
MAJ: 192 (0%)
2005*
Con: 11569 (27%)
Lab: 20871 (48%)
LDem: 9162 (21%)
UKIP: 1623 (4%)
MAJ: 9302 (22%)
2001
Con: 11330 (27%)
Lab: 22553 (55%)
LDem: 6195 (15%)
UKIP: 829 (2%)
Oth: 466 (1%)
MAJ: 11223 (27%)
1997
Con: 15289 (28%)
Lab: 29498 (55%)
LDem: 6289 (12%)
Oth: 1122 (2%)
MAJ: 14209 (26%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ROYSTON SMITH (Conservative) PR consultant and former RAF engineer. Southampton councillor since 2000, former leader of Southampton council. Contested Southampton Itchen 2010. Received the George Medal in 2012 for disarming a gunman on board HMS Astute during a visit.
ROWENNA DAVIS (Labour) Born 1985, Lewisham. Educated at Hampstead School and Oxford University. Journalist. Southwark councillor since 2011.
ELEANOR BELL (Liberal Democrat) University administrator.
KIM ROSE (UKIP) Jeweller. Contested Southampton Itchen 1997 for Socialist Labour Party, 2001, 2005 for UKIP.
JOHN SPOTTISWOODE (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Former Suffolk councillor. Contested Southampton Itchen 2010.
SUE ATKINS (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 354 Responses on “Southampton Itchen”
  1. Green candidate is John Spottiswoode, according to http://yournextmp.mysociety.org/person/433

  2. Major party candidates are:
    Labour Rowenna Davis
    Conservative Royston Smith
    LD David Goodall
    UKIP Kim Rose
    Green John Spottiswoode

  3. Con 38
    Lab 37
    UKIP 12
    LD 9
    G 4

  4. You’re living in fairyland.

    Have you not noticed that the Tories are 5-7% down from 2010 in the most recent polls? So what’s their 2% increase based on?

    And you’ve collapsed the Lib Dem vote yet not given any of it to Labour…and moved no votes from the Tories to UKIP.

    You represent Tory complacency perfectly and you’ll get a big shock next May.

  5. H. Hemmelig is right. The result will be more like

    Lab 36
    Con 30
    LibDem 27
    UKIP 7

  6. Personally, I wouldn’t put the LDs share as high as 27 – their vote across the entire City has collapsed, and they have no cllrs left.

  7. HH you are right. Teddy stop being silly LD’s will be lucky to get to 10%

  8. With respect, KIM ROSE!!!! You must be joking. I was thinking of voting UKIP, but Kim Rose, definitely NO!!. I know of his delusions of grandeur of making a quick buck in other schemes which have failed , A “World Renowned Celebrity Jeweler “, does not work from the back of a trailer in the Wednesday Bitterne local market., I always thought, London, Paris, New York, Rome etc was the place to be in this field of enterprise. The top \jewelers I have spoken to, have not even heard of him. Oh dear UKIP you are doing the other parties,, like them or hate them,, a great favour,

  9. “Green candidate is John Spottiswoode, according to http://yournextmp.mysociety.org/person/433

    Looks like it doesn’t say he’s candidate in 2015, just that he was candidate in 2010.

  10. An unpopular opinion, maybe, but I still think this seat could still be a toss-up come May. Southampton has to a degree felt the effects of the economic recovery. John Denham is standing down, leaving a majority of 192 to Rowenna Davis, who may be seen as young and inexperienced in comparison (plus I don’t know how well the image of London-based Guardian journalist will go down here). Royston Smith, on the other hand, is a local boy like John Denham, and was formerly the leader of Southampton City Council, and this could just play into the hands of undecided voters.

    I’m certainly not saying hands-down this is going to be a Tory gain, or that a Tory gain is the most likely outcome at this time. I’m just saying that if the Tories take just one seat from Labour this year, it will be this one.

  11. I think Southampton Itchen will be the only Conservative gain from Labour this year. Rowenna Davis was a bad choice of candidate for this kind of seat. She would have been a far more appropriate choice for a London seat or a Guardianista seat (Oxford East, Manchester Withington etc). Royston Smith will probably win this by a 1,000 or so.

  12. Whilst Davis might be not the ideal candidate for a tough southern working class seat like this, she has been working fairly hard bedding herself in with the local community since her selection

    Her biggest worry must be that this looks like one of those seats where UKIP might harm the Labour vote every bit as much as they will harm the Tories

    I think we could be into recount territory again

  13. Smith is an ideal Tory candidate for this seat. He is an extremely good speaker and fits the profile of the electorate here like a glove.

  14. Many voters here could see the Labour candidate as to remote and posh.

  15. Too not to

  16. Possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition won’t help the Labour candidate here.

  17. I believe that people can change their entry on the electoral register until April 20th. in order to vote in the May elections.

    So, theoretically, what if somebody hires a cruise ship and berths it at Southamptom docks fom April 19th. until after the election. Then they could register about 3,000 voters for the consitutency in which the liner is berthed. Assuming that cruise passengers tend to vote Tory, this could easily be enough to change the result in this seat.

    Admittedly, it takes far longer than a couple of weeks to hire a liner and book a berth for it. But in terms of the electoral system this does not feel right at all.

  18. Surely anyone registering needs an abode to register from?

    I suspect suspicions may be aroused were 3,000 people to suddenly register, giving their address as “A line moored in the docks”!

  19. Plenty of Hyacinth Bucket UKIP types on cruise ships. Maybe they would choose to berth in Tilbury instead.

  20. They’d have to register via a “declaration of local connection”. They’d have to give an address within the constituency with which they had some connection. Apparently for homeless people this “address may be, for example, a park bench, a bus shelter or the doorway to a high street store”.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0011/43958/Part-F-Special-category-electors-March-2010.pdf

  21. How ridiculous. No-one without a proper fixed address should be on the register, otherwise the possibilities for fraud are enormous.

  22. ‘Plenty of Hyacinth Bucket UKIP types on cruise ships.’

    Absolutely – I remember one of my father’s parisioners went on a cruise in the 1980s of the Carribean where she meet an absolutely horrebndous woman who refused to be seved by anyone non-white and had no hangs up letting ebveryone know this

    She spent the whole time talking about how immigration had tirned trhe Uk into a third world country althpugh one of the handul of people she did soeak very highly of was Margaret Thatcher

    Back to Itchen, I have to say this is one of the seats I want Labour to win – even if my my reasons aren’t entirely political

    Have to say if you google image Rowemna Davis most of the pictures that come up don’t do her much justice – she’s considerably nicer that that

  23. you are very odd in this respect tim………

    seriously though, in my constituency i think quite a few heterosexual women vote for zac goldsmith because they fancy him…….

  24. ‘seriously though, in my constituency i think quite a few heterosexual women vote for zac goldsmith because they fancy him…….’

    I wouldn’t go that far but there is definite evidence that Labour have – albeit belatedly – recognised the sad reality that the mote atttractive the candidate the more votes they are likely to get

    I thought Harriet Harmann’s comments to Simon Danziuk’s wife were quite frankly ludicrous

  25. Rowena Davis will likely win here in May but her majority will be nothing to shout home about. If Labour forms the next government, as seems likely at present, then she is probably a goner come the next election.

  26. Rowena Davis will likely win here in May but her majority will be nothing to shout home about. If Labour forms the next government, as seems likely at present, then she is probably a goner come the next election.

    I was convinced miliband would get to no. 10 in may, by hook or crook. Now, tbh, I am not sure…for the first time in 3 years I think the tories might creep back in!

  27. Unless of course there are boundary changes which are heavily favourable to Labour here.

  28. Rowena Davis as well as those Labour candidates likely to gain marginals very narrowly would probably be better off in opposition for five years and a Tory-led coalition. A shaky Labour-led government would absolutely gut the party’s chances in seats like this in 2020.

    Opposition probably buys them some security. A better leader than Miliband could carry such seats into 2020 with less fear of losing them.

  29. Some Tories are secretly hopeful Miliband gets in, as it would be the best chance of a tory, or right of centre, majority in 2020

  30. Labour should hold — unless the Tory lead starts going beyond 5% in the polls.

  31. “Labour will get close to 20k. Labour can’t get any lower than 2010.”

    Why ?

  32. yet again the tories are doing better in the polls on monday & tuesday than the rest of the week! there must be some actual reason for this phenomenon, which is now recurring for several weeks.

  33. bm,

    what could be the reason….? i notice their vi is higher on yougov, lots of 33s and 34s for the tories now on yougov, when there were 32s and 31s….labour seem to be more volatile.

  34. Yes a weak Labour government propped up by the SNP would make a Tory government very likely in 2020 and they would have a very good shot at a majority. It would probably give the Lib Dems much needed breathing space to recover from the coming electoral disaster. In this scenario seats like this one will probably fall to the Tories like dominoes. It has been my belief for a while now that forming the next government (whichever party does it) will not be in the long term interest of said party.

  35. Maybe Tories are more likely to answer online polls during the first half of the week for some as yet unknown reason. And Labour voters more towards the end of the week.

  36. anthony has mentioned that phone polls tend to be conducted at the weekend & reported early in the week. perhaps that’s creating some of this. you could be right too.

  37. Biggest disappointment of the night going to be here for the Tories.

    Tories not going to outperform 2010 vote.

    Labour hold by around 5000.

  38. “yet again the tories are doing better in the polls on monday & tuesday than the rest of the week!”

    What’s the betting Cameron tries to get the election moved to a Monday!

  39. ‘Yes a weak Labour government propped up by the SNP would make a Tory government very likely in 2020 and they would have a very good shot at a majority’

    I think if Labour lead a government in any shape or form come 2015, the next election is virtually in the bag for the Tories

    Even in the unlikely event of Labour actually governing with a fair degree of competence, they won’t get any credsit for it as the press will portray everything they do as a complete failure, and who knows we could see actions that make practices such as phone hacking seem benign

    You’d be tempted to say that it might be in the long-terms intreests of either of the two main parties to actually lose in 2015 – but of course for Labour the implications would be dire

  40. Darkarts yes it is likely that the Tories will not take this in May however the swing to Labour in this seat will be well under average. My prediction is a Labour hold by less than 1,000 votes. As I have said before though if, as seems likely, Rowenna Davis is probably doomed come 2020 (or before if a weak Miliband government falls before then) unless she gets some very favourable boundary changes.

  41. Pepper
    Strongly disagree with your statement.

    Southampton itchen hasn’t voted tory since 1992. The council has swung back since 2010. Labour got 29 per cent of vote tories beat them by 10pts in England yet didn’t win here.

    Fantasy land that they can win here with tory vote down labour vote up nationally.

  42. As seats in the South go, Southampton Itchen is one of the most Labour-looking of all, but these sorts of places seem to be swinging away from the Labour Party at a very fast rate and it’s only the steady increase in the non-white population that keeps Labour top of the poll

  43. “Southampton itchen hasn’t voted tory since 1992.”

    To be pedantic it hasn’t voted Tory since 1987.

  44. Tim

    You need get out of leafy Twickenham and go to Southampton itchen. Bitterne bitterne park woolston pear tree Shirley have no black asians.

    Labour do win places with white people. Such a racist narrow minded view.

  45. I’ve been to southampton far more times than i’ve been to Twickenham

    Of course Labour win places with white people but of all groups it’s the WWC – which was once Labour’s core vote – that have been deserting Labour in droves, primarily to UKIP, but even before their surge the Tories were taking of these votes from Labour – in 2010 most of the biggest swings from Labour to Tory were in seats with a high proportion of wwc voters

  46. one can accuse tim of one or two things, but not of being from twickenham. he is entirely innocent of this heinous crime.

  47. here is the missing profile detail for eleanorbell our Itchen candidate ,;
    Eleanor Bell is married with two grown-up children, she has spent 12 years in local government as a Parish and District Councillor, including a period as Portfolio Holder for Environment, Planning and Transport.. A career in Further and Higher Education brought Eleanor in 1980 to LSU College on the Avenue. As European Projects Director she worked closely with the City Council and Chamber of Commerce on international projects.
    adrian ford , chair sourhampton liberal democrats

  48. Told you this is going to be a blowout, but you just don’t want to listen.

    Labour will win easily. Tories have a ceiling here.

    Tories bet on politics thats why prices are short and wrong.

  49. Rowena Davis and Labour can breathe (for now) a sigh of relief, as Ashcroft’s return poll here sees them leading by 8 points.

  50. Back to the 8 point lead shown in the first Ashcroft poll here.

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