South Shields By election 2013

South Shields By election
The by-election was caused by the resignation of David Miliband in order to take up a job in the USA as the head of International Rescue. Miliband announced his intention to resign on the 27th March and was appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead on the 15th April, vacating his seat. The by-election was held on the 2nd May 2013, the same day as the local elections and was a comfortable Labour hold, with UKIP taking second place, not having previously contested the seat. The TV comedian Simon Brodkin originally announced his intention to contest the seat in the guise of his character "Lee Nelson", but withdrew his candidature after having had his nomination accepted, reportedly because impartiality rules would have prevented the BBC showing his television show during the campaign.

Result
Emma Lewell-Buck (Labour) 12493 50.5% (-1.6%)
Richard Elvin (UKIP) 5988 24.2% (n/a)
Karen Allen (Conservative) 2857 11.5% (-10.1%)
Ahmed Khan (Independent) 1331 5.4% (n/a)
Phil Brown (Independent Socialist) 750 3% (n/a)
Dorothy Brooke (BNP) 711 2.9% (-3.6%)
Hugh Annand (Liberal Democrat) 352 1.4% (-12.8%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 197 0.8% (n/a)
Thomas Darwood (Independent) 57 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 6505 26.3% (-4.1%)
Turnout 39.3% (-18.4%)
Candidates
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Emma Lewell-Buck (Labour) Born 1978, South Shields. Educated at Northumbria University. Social worker. South Tyneside councillor since 2004.
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Richard Elvin (UKIP) Former teacher. Runs a travel company. Contested Houghton and Sunderland South 2010, Middlesbrough 2012 by-election
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Karen Allen (Conservative) Born South Shields. Educated at Harton Comprehensive School and Queen Mary University. Insurance broker. Contested South Shields 2010.
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Ahmed Khan (Independent) Former South Tyneside councillor.
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Phil Brown (Independent Socialist) Born South Shields. Nurse
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Dorothy Brooke (BNP) Contested Tynemouth 2010.
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Hugh Annand (Liberal Democrat) Translator. Contested Hertfordshire North East 2010
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Howling Laud Hope (Loony) Real name Alan Hope. Born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent by-election 2006, Sedgefield by-election 2007, Norwich North by-election 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013
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Thomas Darwood (Independent) Religious publisher. Contested Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008, Barking 2010.
Comments - 22 Responses on “South Shields by-election”
  1. SOPN on this page:-

    http://www.southtyneside.info/article/18140/South-Shields-by-election

    Persons nominated Surname
    Other Names
    (in full) Description
    ALLEN Karen
    The Conservative Party Candidate

    ANNAND Hugh
    Liberal Democrat

    BROOKES Lady Dorothy MacBeth
    British National Party

    BROWN Phil
    The Independent Socialist Party

    DARWOOD Thomas Faithful
    Independent

    ELVIN Richard Peter
    UK Independence Party (UK I P)

    HOPE Howling Laud
    The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

    KHAN Ahmed
    Independent

    LEWELL-BUCK Emma
    Labour Party Candidate

    NELSON Lee
    Independent (candidate withdrew nomination)

    (Apologies for format – tables are not us here)

    BR

  2. Thanks for this! I’m trying to work out Phil Brown is this Mr Monkey blogger who was supposedly going to stand. And also whether Phil Brown is the locally-born Southend football manager (probably not).

    Ahmed Khan is a former local independent councillor. Thomas Darwood stood in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election; according to his profile on the old site, he “claims to be the true Archbishop of Canterbury, Pope and heir to the throne.” The withdrawn Lee Nelson is the comedy character; the potential candidacy got quite a bit of publicity so I guess he felt there was little to be gained by actually standing and taking a handful of votes.

  3. War of dreams – it is Ahmed Khan who has previously faced accusations that he was Mr Monkey

  4. Thanks, Anthony.

    This one is going to be another easy Labour win. To claim a success, in opposition in mid-term, the party will need to increase their share a bit – getting back to 60%, which is roughly what they took in 2005 and 1992, should be an achievable target.

    The Tory share is bound to fall; not a worry in itself in this unwinnable seat, but they really need to beat UKIP to claim any kind of success. In order to do that, they should be getting at least 15%.

    UKIP only stood in 2001, so almost any result will be an advance for the party. I can imagine them taking anywhere from 10 to 20% – the lower end would almost look disappointing after their recent results, but it would still represent enormous progress over the past few years.

    The Lib Dems nearly managed 20% back in 2005; although they fell back in 2010, and are sure to fall back much further now, they should at least be looking to hold their deposit, and to beat all the minor candidates.

    This was one of the BNP’s stronger seats in 2010; they held their deposit, with a 6.5% share. This time, they’re likely to lose their deposit, and they can’t spin that as any kind of success.

    I can’t see any of the independents doing well; Ahmed Khan may have some support, but lost his seat on the council last year – will be lucky to hold his deposit. No idea who Phil Brown is, and Thomas Darwood is likely to be behind the Loonies.

  5. UKiP success does not necessarily reduce the BNP vote – In the Rotherham by-election the Conservative and LibDem votes were affected more, resulting in a 3rd place finish for the BNP.

    Probably the BNP takes votes primarily from Labour supporters, whilst UKiP picks up Conservative voters.

    On this basis it can be argued that the BNP cost Labour at least 9 seats in 2010: the seats where Labour lost the seat, and the winning margin was less than the margin of the BNP (votes taken from Labour) over UKiP (votes taken from Con/LD):
    Amber Valley, Bradford East, Burnley, Corby, Dewsbury, Nuneaton, Sherwood, Thurrock, Warwickshire North (7 Conservative gains, 2 Lib Dem).

    Eg., in Amber Valley (Con gain) the winning margin was 536, but the BNP had 2289 more votes than UKiP.

    With 7 more seats relative to the Tories, a Lab/LD coalition would have been more feasible (322 seats).

  6. A gross over-simplification.

    In certain parts of the country the BNP have primarily taken votes from the Conservatives….notably in West Yorkshire and in parts of outer east London and Essex. From your list, Bradford and Dewsbury will probably be in that category, maybe Thurrock as well. Midlands seats like Amber Valley fit more easily into your argument as the BNP tapped into mostly Labour votes there.

  7. I entirely agree with H.Hemmelig here.

  8. Whereas Labour will hold the seat, UKIP will yet again come second. I can see them getting 25%.

    All other candidates in single figures

  9. UKIP’s target is probably to get their highest share so far in a by-election, which means beating the 27.8% they polled in Eastleigh.

  10. Have UKIP been seriously trying then, if so it’s got no attention?

  11. Mark Ferguson at LabourList:

    “Rumour from South Shields. It’s entirely possible that the Lib Dems are trailing the Monster Raving Loony Party”:

    https://twitter.com/Markfergusonuk

  12. When the sdp trailed the loonies in the 1990 bootle by election, they got the message that it was time to pack up and go away.

    If the lib ems were to indeed be behind the loonies here, should they take a similar mesage from the electorate?

    It wpuld certainly be a pundits dream come true.

  13. I noticed that in the last election a third of the votes cast here were postal votes. Given the short campaign, this may be enough for Labour to be home here. PV’s will have been cast a week ago, before the final push in the campaign. UKIP will need to crack this kind of organization to make a break through nationally.

    The last round of county elections were held on the same day as the Euro elections in 2009. This helped the Conservatives in the euro poll as its shire county voter had more reasons to vote than the urban Labour voters. It is surprising UKIP did not get more county seats, since they did well in the Euro elections. Perhaps they did not nominate enough candidates or some voters split the ticket between the two polls.

  14. Andrea reported in another place that 12,125 postal votes were returned.

  15. Constituency turnout Electorate Votes Turnout
    In person 41171 10349 25.1%
    Postal 21808 14431 66.2%
    Overall 62979 24780 39.3%

    from here:- http://www.southtyneside.info/applications/2/elections/detail.aspx?id=302

    Overall turnout 39.3%

    (Postal returns: sent out 21,808, returned = 14,431).

    BR

  16. Turnout in South Shields: 39.3%.

    That would be 24,873 votes using the 2010 electorate of 63,289.

  17. I would bet the liberals will triple the loonies vote.

  18. Well it’s a good result for UKIP, but not as spectacular as they were predicting on Twitter during the day. “Giving Labour a bloody nose” it certainly wasn’t. Solid enough Labour win though not awe-inspiring.

  19. The LDs easily beaten by the independent socialist as well as (by a mile) the Tories.

  20. It certainly isn’t awe-inspiring to be stuck on 2010 levels of support.

  21. But a very poor result for the Conservatives of course.

  22. A good result for UKIP; although it wasn’t as high as some of the wilder predictions elsewhere, it’s a very high share to achieve from a standing start and not far off their best result ever.

    Labour are sounding relieved, but to drop vote share from 2010 in mid-term isn’t a good result. If much of the UKIP vote returns to the Tories at the next election, Labour need to be doing considerably better in order to win.

    Not an area where the Conservatives need to win, but losing nearly half their vote and finishing way behind UKIP is poor.

    The BNP vote fell by more than half, no surprise as it’s symptomatic of the party’s infighting, and the rise of UKIP.

    Terrible result for the Lib Dems – losing roughly 90% of their vote share, coming seventh and taking around 1.4%, their worst ever share and the worst Liberal share in a by-election since 1948!

    Other than UKIP, only two of the independents have reason to be happy – Mr Monkey holding his deposit, and the independent socialist beating both the BNP and Lib Dems.

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