Shrewsbury & Atcham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24628 (45.5%)
Labour: 15063 (27.8%)
Lib Dem: 4268 (7.9%)
Green: 2247 (4.2%)
UKIP: 7813 (14.4%)
Others: 83 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9565 (17.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Shropshire. Part of the Shropshire council area.

Main population centres: Shrewsbury.

Profile: The seat is coterminous with the former council area of Shrewsbury and Atcham, now subsumed into Shropshire unitary authority. It consists of the town of Shrewsbury itself and the small villages of the surrounding countryside. Shrewsbury is a historic market town, now a retail centre for much of Shropshire and Mid-Wales.

Politics: Shrewsbury was held by the Conservatives between 1924 and the Labour landslide of 1997 when it was narrowly won by Labour on an 11% swing. The Labour MP Paul Marsden was a rare example of an MP who managed, in Churchill`s phrase, to "re-rat". He defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2001 citing heavy-handed whipping over his opposition to the Afghanistan war, but rejoined Labour in the run up to the 2005 general election. Marsden did not contest his seat and it was regained by the Conservatives.

Current MP
DANIEL KAWCZYNSKI (Conservative) Born 1972, Warsaw. Educated at St Georges College and Stirling University. Former account manager. Contested Ealing Southall 2001. First elected as MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham in 2005. PPS to David Jones 2012-2014. Kawczynski is over six and a half feet tall, and is thought to be the tallest ever MP.
Past Results
Con: 23313 (44%)
Lab: 10915 (21%)
LDem: 15369 (29%)
UKIP: 1627 (3%)
Oth: 1821 (3%)
MAJ: 7944 (15%)
Con: 18960 (38%)
Lab: 17152 (34%)
LDem: 11487 (23%)
UKIP: 1349 (3%)
Oth: 1348 (3%)
MAJ: 1808 (4%)
Con: 18674 (37%)
Lab: 22253 (45%)
LDem: 6173 (12%)
UKIP: 1620 (3%)
Oth: 1189 (2%)
MAJ: 3579 (7%)
Con: 18814 (34%)
Lab: 20484 (37%)
LDem: 13838 (25%)
Oth: 862 (2%)
MAJ: 1670 (3%)

2015 Candidates
DANIEL KAWCZYNSKI (Conservative) See above.
CHRISTINE TINKER (Liberal Democrat) Born 1957, Liverpool. Educated at Warwick University. Former executive director of the British tennis coaches association and army officer. Contested Stone 2010, West Midlands European Region 2014.
STIRLING MCNEILLIE (Children of the Atom)
Comments - 136 Responses on “Shrewsbury & Atcham”
  1. You’re right. Even in exceptionally dangerous jobs, everybody is totally pissed 24-7.

  2. It’s absolutely terrifying seeing people in charge of large vehicles/excavation equipment etc. in that kind of state.

  3. At 6ft8, Daniel Kawczynski is, by miles the tallest ever MP in the House of Commons, never mind at the moment. I think the tallest MP for ages at Westminster before him was long-time minister Archie Hamilton, who was 6ft6. I personally am a mere 6ft in comparison!

  4. Easy Con hold. Expect a strong performance by Suzanne Evans for UKIP though.

    Con – 40
    Lab – 27
    LD – 18
    UKIP – 13
    Others – 2

  5. Conservative Hold. 8,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

  6. Suzanne Evans (UKIP candidate here) is apparently the party’s interim leader now. She comes across fairly well on TV. I think she was previously a Conservative.

    If Farage stands again for leadership, wouldn’t it reinforce the idea that UKIP is a one man band, rather giving a fresh face a shot? Unless the party elects someone else. Evans, Diane James, John Bickley and Steve Crowther have all been decent in their media appearance and none exude any of the UKIP stereotypes.

  7. This seat has moved up Labour’s target list from no. 136 to no. 99. Swing required was 11.7%, now 8.8%.

  8. How is this seat likely to be redistributed, if at all, for 2020? Call me cynical, but I don’t think boundary changes here are likely to be particularly helpful for Labour. Ther is also the point that Shrewsbury is increasingly a nice middle-class town for long-distance commuters and for [people who are not tied geographically..

  9. There was a very big LD vote here. Now thats mostly gone and there is a still a big tory lead. This isn’t a labour trending seat.

  10. There was a reasonably sizeable UKIP vote in this seat which also needs to be taken into account, althugh I would at present hardly put this seat on a UKIP target list for 2020.

  11. The abandoned proposals had Shrewsbury and Atcham and North Shropshire staying the same (although Atcham was to be dropped from the name). The real changes were in the other seats (see Telford thread) with Ludlow loosing Bridgnorth to Telford South but taking in a vast swathe of west Herefordshire to create a geographical leviathan called Ludlow and Leominster.

    I can’t see Shrewsbury going Labour without the stars aligning again like they did in 1997.

  12. One wonders how leafy Shrewsbury ended up with an MP who is so vociferous in his support of the Saudi regime. Even yesterday’s Telegraph seemed pretty horrified by his performance in the House when the prison contract was cancelled.

    As he can’t have more than a handful of Saudi constituents.. who wouldn’t be able to to vote anyway then one wonders why he “dost protesteth so much”?

    The other parties should be able to find a ready target in our “tallest MP”.. I would start by looking at the activities of the Saudi APPG in which he is a bigwig.

  13. ‘One wonders how leafy Shrewsbury ended up with an MP who is so vociferous in his support of the Saudi regime.’

    Tristan Blunt is the same

    It’s quite odd given that both he and Kawczynski would be in prison for their homosexuality if either of them lived in the country they seem so fond of

  14. He would probably be stoned.. rather than in prison…!

  15. That’s one way to generate a by-election..

  16. Oddly decent result for Labour here.

  17. Yes I hadn’t noticed that. The MP a bit marmite?

  18. The leanings of the 2010 Lib Dem vote seem to have varied across the country. Maybe here they were more Laboury.

  19. I’m not sure there’s much evidence of the MP being ‘a bit marmite’ and holding back the potential Tory vote here.
    Both the Conservative and Labour vote shares are very similar to the 1992 result.
    Labour clearly has a respectable base of support in this seat, and the Conservatives seem to have a ceiling of support in the high 40s. They didn’t quite hit 50% in either of the Thatcher landslides.

  20. ‘I’m not sure there’s much evidence of the MP being ‘a bit marmite’ and holding back the potential Tory vote here.’

    I’d agree with that although to be fair Kawcynskik doesn’t come over as being very effective whenever I’ve seen him speak in Parliament and its not entirely down to the fact he speaks in a foreign accent

  21. Well, there are some very deprived wards in the north and east corner of Shewsbury where Labour have a firm base- they got 86% in Castlefields in 2013 in a three-cornered contest with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

  22. Is there anyone else posting here who has actually been to Saudi?

    Have to say I really hated the experience and I say that as someone who usually likes visiting unusual places. But economically we have to engage with the Saudis….of course, whether that stretches to profiting from their notorious prisons is another matter, personally I’d steer clear.

  23. This is now a stronger target for Labour than North Warwickshire or Dudley South which were both held in 2005 with decent majorities.

  24. Says everything really. Tells you a lot about change in demographics and voting patterns in different areas of the Midlands.

  25. The swing here was just over 3% from Con to Lab, so really much in line with the average for English seats.

    Con 50.0 (+4.4%)
    Lab 38.6% (+10.7%)
    LD 7.3% (-0.6%)
    UKIP 2.3%
    Green 1.8%

  26. Unless the Tories really screw up over the next parliament I don’t think Lab will be able to take this seat back, an 11% majority and I can’t help but think Lab are probably close to their ceiling here these days. Regardless that wont stop me hoping, Kawczynski really does seem like a truly awful character (and I really don’t use that term lightly) one of the hard right nutcases from the Tories 05 intake but seemingly with a bizarre collection of political interests and a serious attitude problem to go with it He wouldn’t be a loss to the Tory party.

  27. On top of all that he’s some 6ft 8 inches y’all!

  28. This man is a prize muppet and is not fit to be an MP.

  29. ‘This man is a prize muppet and is not fit to be an MP.’

    It’s certainly one of the most ineffective MPs in the House – so its a bit of a surprise that he’s done relatively well – and his thick Polish accent doesn’t do him many favours either

  30. Shrewsbury itself has Labour support and they did hold the seat for a couple of terms when they were in government last time. The town council is quite mixed in terms of party representation. Labour, Conservatives mainly, a few Lib Dems and I think a Green.

  31. Daniel Kawczynksi has resigned from the ERG because of opposition to their blocking efforts against MV4.
    But MV4 itself is probably dead without some sort of Labour deal which will probably be unacceptable to him.

  32. Wasn’t this the man who lobbied Law and Justice to veto our request for an Article 50 Extension? Seemed back then he wanted to leave with no deal.

  33. Yeah it was him.

  34. Belle Vue by election 25 April

    Lab Hold

    LAB: 47.1% (+4.1)
    LDEM: 31.5% (+3.2)
    CON: 11.9% (-12.3)
    GRN: 5.1% (+0.6)
    UKIP: 4.5% (+4.5)

  35. Seems a bit strange to be holding a by-election just one week before the locals.

  36. No Local elections in the Shropshire Council Area.(Shropshire is an unitary which elects whole every four years – next in 2021.)
    Others areas with no local elections include London, Bristol, Birmingham, Cornwall and Oxford.

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