Sheffield South East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7242 (17.4%)
Labour: 21439 (51.4%)
Lib Dem: 2226 (5.3%)
Green: 1117 (2.7%)
UKIP: 9128 (21.9%)
TUSC: 185 (0.4%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12311 (29.5%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, South Yorkshire. Part of the Sheffield council area.

Main population centres: Sheffield, Beighton, Mosborough.

Profile: The post-industrial eastern part of the city, this has seen massive redevelopment over recent decades as the coal mining and steel making industries have declines, from massive council and private housing developments in the south-east of the city around Halfway and Waterthorpe to the building of the Meadowhall shopping centre, Don Valley Athletics Stadium and the (currently mothballed) Sheffield Airport in the eastern part of the city. Sheffield South-East also has a significant Muslim population, concentrated in the Darnall area.

Politics: This is the successor to the old Sheffield Attercliffe seat, renamed for the 2010 election. It is a safe Labour seat, represented by the party since 1935.


Current MP
CLIVE BETTS (Labour) Born 1950, Sheffield. Educated at King Edward VII School and Cambridge University. Former economist. Sheffield councillor 1976-1992. Contested Louth 1979. First elected as MP for Sheffield Attercliffe in 1992. Government whip 1997-2001.
Past Results
2010
Con: 7202 (17%)
Lab: 20169 (49%)
LDem: 9664 (23%)
BNP: 2345 (6%)
Oth: 2028 (5%)
MAJ: 10505 (25%)
2005*
Con: 5329 (14%)
Lab: 22250 (60%)
LDem: 6283 (17%)
UKIP: 1680 (5%)
Oth: 1477 (4%)
MAJ: 15967 (43%)
2001
Con: 5443 (15%)
Lab: 24287 (68%)
LDem: 5092 (14%)
UKIP: 1002 (3%)
MAJ: 18844 (53%)
1997
Con: 7119 (16%)
Lab: 28937 (65%)
LDem: 6973 (16%)
MAJ: 21818 (49%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Sheffield, Attercliffe

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATT SLEAT (Conservative)
CLIVE BETTS (Labour) See above.
GAIL SMITH (Liberal Democrat) Contested Sheffield South East 2010.
STEVEN WINSTONE (UKIP)
LINDA DUCKENFIELD (Green)
MATTHEW ROBERTS (English Democrat)
JEN BATTESBY (CISTA)
IAN WHITEHOUSE (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 96 Responses on “Sheffield South East”
  1. The two holds the other night were not exactly good news (as Jack pointed out). Labour may have held their two seats but were down in every bye election on Thursday night.

    Down 3.0% in Barrow
    4.5% in Mansfield
    8.3% in Maidstone
    9.2% in Sheffield

    Since August 11th, where Labour has stood a candidate previously, they have only been up in 3 out of 21 council bye elections (Tooting, Bournemouth and Fife).

    Results up to the 11th of August were better.

  2. James
    “Down 3.0% in Barrow
    4.5% in Mansfield
    8.3% in Maidstone
    9.2% in Sheffield”

    Sheffield has obviously been discussed but in Barrow UKIP stood for the first time, in Maidstone a reasonably successful independent stood for the first time and in Mansfield UKIP, another independent and the Tories all stood for the first time.

  3. Council bye election results do show a tangible decline in the Labour vote over the last month. It’s not one election, it’s 18/21 (with the death of the Communist councillor in Fife, the increase of 0.7% in the Labour vote appears disappointing, even if it was a gain).

    I’m not going to speculate about the reason for this trend, but this should be of real concern to the Labour Party.

  4. Polltroll – I thought that initially, but then recalled that Labour are at rock bottom in Barrow, having had one of the largest swings against them in 2015.

    ie the sitting MP just withstood the tide there. With Corbyn as Leader it’ll be almost impossible.

  5. @Maxim Barrow can only get worse for Labour as it is completely surrounded by areas hostile to them. Copeland will likely vanish with the safely Labour part of the seat (Whitehaven) getting combined with Workington town to create a safe Labour seat with the rural Tory bits of both seats farmed off into other constituencies. Carlisle will get significantly worse for Labour too.

    Essentially the notional seats will likely be:
    Tory: 3 (+1)
    Labour: 1 (-2)
    Lib Dem: 1 (=)

  6. Cumbria will indeed be one of, if not THE worst area for Labour in the BR.

    For Barrow its a case of “how” bad will it be for Labour. Barrow will certainly become a notionally Tory seat but how big depends on how the boundaries are drawn. The most Lab friendly option would result in a notional Tory majority of about 400 so even smaller than Labs current majority or we could see the Tory gerrymander option which involves cramming as many rural wards in as you can which would knock it up to about 2,600. Likelihood is though we’ll see something in the middle which would result in a Tory notional about the same as Labs current majority of about 800.

  7. Actually just realised, the max the Tory notional majority in Barrow can be is about 1,500

  8. Maxim
    “In terms of seats that could “expand into Tory countryside” the North Wales seats are examples, all basically border Tory rural areas (Clwyd S, Wrexham, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn)”

    In North Wales I think the Tories are going to lose just as badly as Labour. It depends on what the BC come up with but the two Powys seats (Brecon and Montgomeryshire) are so undersized there’s going to be vast changes. Brecon will probably expand northwards and take in most of Montgomeryshire meaning Montgomeryshire has to go even further northwards into Southern Denbighshire taking in most of the Tory voting rural areas from seats like the Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd West and Clwyd South and maybe even Aberconwy. If I had to guess I’d say Lab would go from 4 seats to 3 and the Tories will go from 4 seats to 2.

  9. Maxim
    Re Pembrokeshire its another Welsh area that’s bad for the Tories. Pembrokeshire is too big for just the one seat so I think we’ll see a repeat of what the BC proposed last time. a “Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North” which would still be a reliable Lib Dem seat with Plaid as the challengers and a more compact “South Pembrokeshire” which while still notionally Tory would be a more promising Lab target having shaved off much of the rural areas and added Labour leaning towns like Milford Haven and Haverfordwest.

    As for Powys again too big for just the one seat, the Northern parts of Montgomeryshire not added to Brecon will have to dip up into the Tory voting parts of Denbighshire which happen to provide the bulk of Tory votes in seats like Clwyd West and the Vale of Clwyd.

  10. @rivers I was under the impression thst the Tory vote came from the retirement towns along the coast in seats like Clwyd West (I could be wrong though). Nevertheless adding the north of Montgomeryshire to parts of Clwyd and a coastal seat would create two seat that the Tories would be favoured in so hardly too bad for them there.

  11. Yes I am right I think about the coastal bits of Clwyd West being more Tory than the inland bits. At the last review I believe they tried to combine the coastal bits of Aberconwy and Clwyd West and I believe the notionals had it as reliably Tory. While the North Mongomeryshire/South Clwyd seat was a Tory seat on a low vote share (Lab in South Clwyd/ Lib Dem in Montgomeryshire)

  12. The fairly reliably Tory seat on the North Wales coast I believe was called Conwy and Colwyn (or something like that) and I would not be shocked at all if they tried this arrangement again but we’ll find out what they want to do Monday I guess.

  13. Rivers10

    Yes, Powys is too big for one seat. The previous draft Boundaries added the southern (more Lib Dem) parts to Brecon and Radnorshire and the northern (more Tory) parts to Clwyd South. The western parts were added to Ceredigion. I would expect something similar this time.

  14. Pepps
    The Tories obviously have big strength in the coastal retirement towns but that’s where all of Labs strength is too, in the southern rural wards Lab get nowhere while the Tories are often battling Plaid.

    The “Conwy and Colwyn” seat was a reliable Tory seat but a better prospect for Lab than the current Clwyd West and certainly not unwinnable. While the other two Tory seats Aberconwy and Vale of Clwyd are carved up completely. As I aid I think the Tories will go from 4 seats to 2 while Lab will go from 4 to 3.

  15. @rivers you are probably right
    Here is my guess at what the commission will do for Wales, we will find out how wrong I am tomorrow haha.

    1)Powys (B&R expanded North)
    2)Wrexham (expanded into eastern parts of Clwyd S)
    3)Denbigh and Welshpool (rest of Montgomeryshire, rest of Clwyd S, southern part of VoC)
    4)Flintshire East (A&D plus Mold and environs)
    5)Flintshire West and Ryhl (rest of Delyn, northern part of VoC)
    6)Conwy and Colwyn (coastal bits of Clwyd W and Aberconwy)
    7)Ynys Mon and Bangor (what it says on the tin. Notionally Plaid)
    8)Gwynedd and South Conwy (remainder of Gwynedd and Conwy authorities)
    9)Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire (what it says on the tin)
    10)South Pembrokeshire (rest of Pembrokeshire and 4 wards from Carmarthenshire)
    11)Carmarthenshire (rest of Carmarthenshire except Llanelli town)
    12)Llanelli (takes area to the north of Swansea like Pontarddulais and Gorseinon)
    13)Swansea West and Gower (notionally Lab by 1,000-1,500 assuming my maths is correct lol)
    14)Swansea East
    15)Neath and Aberdare
    16)Ogmore and Aberavon
    17)Bridgend (moves north a bit gaining bits of Ogmore)
    18)Vale of Glamorgan (gains 2 wards)
    19)Rhondda (stretches south into the eastern parts of Ogmore)
    20)Pontypridd (takes the leftover bits of Cynon Valley and 3 wards from Western Cardiff)
    21)Cardiff West and Penarth
    22)Cardiff East
    23)Cardiff North (notionally Tory by ~500 although Tory vote would have been squeezed by Lib Dems in two wards)
    24)Newport (urban core united in one seat)
    25)Monmouthshire (all of Monmouthshire council area 2 rural wards from east Newport)
    26)Blaenau Gwent and Pontypool
    27)Cwmbran (southern parts of Torfaen, Risca and environs)
    28)Caerphilly
    29)Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (picks up areas around and including the town of Blackwood)

    Note this is the notionals for Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire. Lib Dem on a horrendously low vote share, Tories now somewhat competitive:
    Lib Dem: 14,195 (26.6%)
    Plaid: 11,832 (22.1%)
    Tory: 11,070 (20.7%)
    Labour: 6,832 (12.8%)
    UKIP: 5,503 (10.3%)
    Green: 2,659 (5.0%)
    Other: 1,348 (2.5%)

    So overall seat count for Wales
    Labour: 20 (-8)
    Tory: 5 (-3)
    Plaid: 3 (=)
    Lib Dem: 1 (=)

  16. Pepps
    Probably something in that ballpark yes, the exact wards used in many cases really makes a difference though.

    The only thing I’d say is the Ynys Mon and Bangor seat I’d expect to be notionally Lab if not reliably Lab. I’m not doubting your maths though, I’ve just had a look at Electoral Calculus’s notional results for the seat and in my humble opinion they make no sense. I actually know the Arfon seat very well (visited there as a kid a lot and have friends in Bangor Uni who I often visit) and EC have Plaid running Lab very close and in many cases beating them in the Bangor wards, that strikes me as lil bit odd but I’d be willing to accept it (Plaid do have councillors there after all) but then to get the 2015 result they have Lab opening up some quite impressive leads in some of the rural wards that I really can’t imagine have much in the way of Lab support (extremely remote in nature, everyone speaks Welsh etc)

    It was my understanding Lab strength was concentrated in Bangor and the rest of the seat was dominated by Plaid, EC have the vote much more evenly spread than I would have thought and consequently have gave you the notionals you quoted. I might be totally wrong though.

  17. Pepps
    Also is it just Wales reporting tomorrow or is England and or Scotland reporting as well? I know NI have already reported.

  18. England and Wales both reporting on Tuesday (13th). The Scottish commission website just says “September”

  19. Paul
    Ah thanks much

  20. Its also probably worth pointing out we probably shouldn’t get too excited by these proposals. Usually the BC’s first set of proposals are modified beyond all recognition during the consultation period and what the house ends up voting on is totally different, just look at the changes in the last review between what the BC proposed initially and post consultation.

  21. I’ve just made a few alterations as I realised I added part of Penarth to VoG and Cardiff can have exactly 3 seats no need to cross boundaries so I think this makes more sense:

    1)Powys (B&R expanded North)
    2)Wrexham (expanded into eastern parts of Clwyd S)
    3)Denbigh and Welshpool (rest of Montgomeryshire, rest of Clwyd S, southern part of VoC)
    4)Flintshire East (A&D plus Mold and environs)
    5)Flintshire West and Ryhl (rest of Delyn, northern part of VoC)
    6)Conwy and Colwyn (coastal bits of Clwyd W and Aberconwy)
    7)Ynys Mon and Bangor (what it says on the tin. Notionally Plaid)
    8)Gwynedd and South Conwy (remainder of Gwynedd and Conwy authorities)
    9)Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire (what it says on the tin)
    10)South Pembrokeshire (rest of Pembrokeshire and 4 wards from Carmarthenshire)
    11)Carmarthenshire (rest of Carmarthenshire except Llanelli town)
    12)Llanelli (takes area to the north of Swansea like Pontarddulais and Gorseinon)
    13)Swansea West and Gower (notionally Lab by 1,000-1,500 assuming my maths is correct lol)
    14)Swansea East
    15)Neath and Aberdare
    16)Ogmore and Aberavon
    17)Bridgend (takes two Ogmore wards and 4 from VoG. Becomes notionally Tory by ~1,500)
    18)Barry and Penarth (rest of VoG authority. Notionally Tory by ~3,000.)
    19)Rhondda (stretches south into the eastern parts of Ogmore)
    20)Pontypridd (takes the leftover bits of Cynon Valley and 3 wards from Western Cardiff)
    21)Cardiff West
    22)Cardiff East
    23)Cardiff North (notionally Tory by ~6,100. Picks up the 3 rural wards in outskirts of Cardiff West and Cyncoed.)
    24)Newport (urban core united in one seat)
    25)Monmouthshire (all of Monmouthshire council area 2 rural wards from east Newport)
    26)Blaenau Gwent and Pontypool
    27)Cwmbran (southern parts of Torfaen, Risca and environs)
    28)Caerphilly
    29)Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (picks up areas around and including the town of Blackwood)

    Obviously Bridgend and Cardiff North now becomes significantly worse for Labour but the successor seat to Vale of Glamorgan (Barry and Penarth) is significantly better.

    So overall seat count is:
    Labour: 19 (-9)
    Tory: 6 (-2)
    Plaid: 3 (=)
    Lib Dem: 1

  22. Pepps
    Re V of G and Bridgend that’s what I did but I named the “Barry and Penarth” seat “East Glamorgan” instead.

    Also differed quite a bit in Cardiff, you do know there are a couple of more minimalist changes that can be made?

  23. Also out of curiosity how is it you only have Tories down 2? Even on your boundaries by my count their down three.

  24. @rivers sorry I had the number of seats that they had in the first place wrong (I think I was thinking pre 2015):

    It would be
    Labour:17 (-8)
    Tory: 8 (-3)
    Plaid: 3 (=)
    Lib Dem: 1 (=)

    Well the smallest amount of ward movements I can see in Cardiff is 6 (excluding the removal of Penarth). But it makes sense to switch Pentyrch and Craigiau with Llandaff North and Gabalfa because if the former two remained in West they would be completely isolated from the rest of the seat. Plus it makes sense to have 2 ‘urban core’ constituencies and one suburban one.

  25. Sorry 7 moves is the minimum.

  26. Pepps
    I don’t see how Pentyrch and Creigiau are isolated, unless you remove Radyr from West without removing the former for some reason which of course you don’t need to, just add Grangetown to Cardiff West then leave it alone.

    The issue then becomes what do you do with the rest of Cardiff, a couple of options all of which are acceptable to one degree or another.

    I just don’t see the need to have such a complete re-jig of Cardiff except for partisan reasons.

  27. Given the very large size of most Scottish council wards (in some cases in terms of population in other cases area in many cases both) I imagine the Scottish review will be a bit trickier and there will be an abundance of ward splitting which obviously makes the whole thing more complicated.

  28. @Maxim I think you have to have a Kent-East Sussex one as West Sussex is perfectly sized for 7 seats while East Sussex and Kent both have bits of seats which don’t fit into any of their other ones thus a Kent-East Sussex seat is effectively mandatory.

  29. Maxim
    Blame the Tories and their +/-5% quota

  30. Yes they are necessary (in my view they should be done decadely or thereabouts) but if it was me I would have given each county a certain amount of seats and then applied a quota level to the seats within said county (putting Rutland with Leicestershire and Herefordshire with Worcestershire). Sure you will get more variation in electorate size but you wouldn’t get any odd ‘county hopping’.

  31. Pepps
    I like that idea, I obviously would prefer if we just had straight PR but if we have to have FPTP (or some variant of PR that includes constituencies) then that seems the way to go about it.

  32. Scots apparently due to report on October 8th

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