Sheffield, Hallam

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7544 (13.7%)
Labour: 19862 (36%)
Lib Dem: 22215 (40.2%)
Green: 1772 (3.2%)
UKIP: 3575 (6.5%)
Independent: 97 (0.2%)
Others: 167 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2353 (4.3%)

Category: Marginal Liberal Democrat seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, South Yorkshire. Part of the Sheffield council area.

Main population centres: Sheffield, High and Low Bradfield, Dungworth, Worrall.

Profile: A largely rural seat covering the south-west corner of Sheffield. This is an affluent and wealthy seat, one of the richest outside of the south-east and one of the best educated in the country. The western part of the seat is within the Peak District and is largely desolate moorland, stretching up into the pennines. Below that are small villages like like High and Low Bradfield, Dungworth, Worrall and Ringinglow. The seat then covers the westernmost fringes of Sheffield itself, some of the richest and most affluent suburbs of the city like Ecclesall and the more Conservative Totley and Dore.

Politics: A wealthy, middle-class and mostly owner-occupied seat this was a safe Conservative seat between the first world war and the 1990s. However it fell to the Liberal Democrats` Richard Allen in the anti-Conservative landslide of 1997 and he successfully passed it onto the future Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg in 2005. In 2015 some polls suggested that Clegg could lose his seat to Labour, but ultimately he held on.

Current MP
NICK CLEGG (Liberal Democrat) Born 1967, Buckinghamshire. Educated at Westminster school and Cambridge university. Former speechwriter to Sir Leon Brittan. Contested MEP for the East Midlands region 1999-2004. First elected as MP for Sheffield Hallam in 2005. Europe spokesman 2005-2006, Liberal Democrat shadow home secretary 2006-2007, Leader of the Liberal Democrats 2007-2015. Deputy Prime Minister 2010-2015. Clegg was touted as a possible leadership contender following Charles Kennedy`s resignation, though eventually he backed Sir Menzies Campbell. After Campbell`s own resignation the following year Clegg defeated Chris Huhne to become leader of the Liberal Democrats from December 2007. His performance in the first leaders` debate in the 2010 election produced a huge spike in Liberal Democrat support, which largely faded by the time of the election, but was enough to secure a hung Parliament. Clegg subsequently negotiated a coalition deal with the Conservative party, taking the third party into government for the first time since the second world war.
Past Results
Con: 12040 (24%)
Lab: 8228 (16%)
LDem: 27324 (53%)
UKIP: 1195 (2%)
Oth: 2348 (5%)
MAJ: 15284 (30%)
Con: 12028 (30%)
Lab: 5110 (13%)
LDem: 20710 (51%)
GRN: 1331 (3%)
Oth: 1248 (3%)
MAJ: 8682 (21%)
Con: 11856 (31%)
Lab: 4758 (12%)
LDem: 21203 (55%)
UKIP: 429 (1%)
MAJ: 9347 (24%)
Con: 15074 (33%)
Lab: 6147 (14%)
LDem: 23345 (51%)
Oth: 125 (0%)
MAJ: 8271 (18%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
IAN WALKER (Conservative) Born 1958, Fulwood. Engineer.
OLIVER COPPARD (Labour) Born Sheffield. Educated at High Storrs school.
NICK CLEGG (Liberal Democrat) See above.
JOE JENKINS (UKIP) Educated at Dundee University. Student.
PETER GARBUTT (Green) English language teacher.
STEVE CLEGG (English Democrat)
CARLTON REEVE (Independent) Educated at Bradford university. Digital media consultant and lecturer.
Comments - 2,155 Responses on “Sheffield Hallam”
  1. According to Business Insider Westmorland is at threat from the Tories, Sheffield Hallam to Labour

  2. I dont think Link’s are allowed here but its on UK Business Insider and is written by Adam Payne

  3. Links are allowed, just not more than one at a time.

    Here is the link, if anyone else is interested.

    To me, this seems a load of drivel. It’s the typical “party sources are confident” diatribe.

    I could see either result in an upset, but I don’t think an article that claims that Labour is “confident” in Hallam or the Tories in Westmoreland can be seen as credible. In fact, I think the idea of Labour gaining any seats at all is somewhat absurd.

  4. I agree. And if Labour did gain any seats it be East Lothian in Scotland.

  5. Yes, I suppose you’re right that they have an outside chance there.

    I just can’t see a struggle Labour party — particularly a Corbynite one, which probably won’t appeal to the better off sort of leftist voters who live in Hallam — pulling off a victory here now that Clegg is less toxic and the Lib Dems are a bit on the rise.

    I’d say Clegg has a better chance of breaking 50 percent of the vote than he has of being unseated, to be honest.

  6. I do see some Labour gains Derby North, Brighton Kemptown, Bury North, etc. Hallam isn’t the likeliest I’d chose

  7. I highly doubt most of those, frankly.

  8. Having campaigned in Derby North I think Chris Williamson is in with a good chance

  9. Labour are a best price 15-2 to win Derby N (equates to an 11.8 per cent chance). I think those odds are about right.

  10. Yes, I’d expect a Con hold in all the seats mentioned there — especially Kemptown and Bury North (I’d think they’d gain a seat in Bury, not lose one, if anything).

  11. If the polls are correct and the Tories are heading for a 1997 type victory, then I seriously doubt that Labour will be gaining seats, no matter rhe regional or local factors in play (except for perhaps in Scotland). In 1997 the Conservatives didn’t gain anything and only 2 seats even swung towards them at all. Plus, they were of course, safe seats; I see no reason why this election should be any different.

  12. Even with the Greens standing aside in Kemptown?

  13. Yeah, but UKIP aren’t fielding a candidate at either; they got 9.8% of the vote which was higher than the Greens. While I don’t for a second believe that the Tories are going to receive all of it, I think it’s probable they’ll get the lions share of it, balancing out any gains for Labour by the Greens.

    Now, I don’t know whether Kirby was a remainer or not, but I still think this principle applies. Most new Tory voters say, for instance, “I’m voting for Theresa May” not “I’m voting Conservative”. So unless the MP is an arch remainer (Ken Clarke style) I doubt that’ll affect the flow of UKIP votes in a way that will alter the outcome of the seat.

  14. I think the Greens stood down in Kemptown in the LDs favor, not Labour (obviously, actual votes may flow differently).

  15. Yes, you’re right, my mistake. However, my point still stands; Labour will not gain this seat!

  16. Don’t hold your breath on Hallam. Also can’t see where a gain in Derby North would come from

  17. Currently, the New Statesman’s election forecast has this for Hallam:

    CON 36
    Lab 33
    LD 18
    UKIP 9
    GRN 4

    And LD at the exact same percentage in Sheffield SE.

    Am I wrong, or is that entirely insane?

  18. Nameless, does Clegg still look quite safe to you? As I recall, you’re the most local person here.

  19. If Clegg loses he only has himself to blame.

  20. That was my reaction, too, PT.

  21. I’m also in Hallam now. The LDs are definite favourites.

  22. I suspect the New Statesman is being a trifle mischievous, presumably ramping up the Conservative vote in order to mobilise Labour support?

  23. Perhaps, yes.

    And Iain, I’d be interested to hear more detailed thoughts, from both you and Nameless.

  24. A local Labour contact has told me that they are doing well from their returns and expect to go v close.

  25. Plopwellian Tory – interesting thought. How do you measure this? Would some of the inner London seats be running it close? Or the wealthier areas of Liverpool?

  26. Hampstead & Kilburn, Holborn & St Pancras and Islington South surely hold more wealth, Westminster North too. Even Hornsey and Wood Green will have tremendous wealth too as it has a decent chunk of Highgate. But in terms of median wealth many of those areas are more diverse.

  27. I used to live in Marylebone, which of course is in Westminster North. Quite a wealthy area. Hampstead is very posh, too.

    Would expect Hallam might be their overall wealthiest on average if they won it… I don’t know, now Labour are polling so well I suppose it is possible.

  28. Evening. Had election addresses through from the Greens and SDP today. Green one just an A5 card with a bit of policy and a rather bad photo (I know the candidate a little bit and it doesn’t do him justice).

    The SDP one is rather interesting. It’s a nicely produced glossy booklet with fairly decent design work and a poster on the back. They’ll obviously get 200 votes and come last, but I’m interested in who’s funding this mini-relaunch.

    I still expect Nick Clegg to increase his majority, though I expect both the Lib Dems and Labour to drop votes. Labour are putting up a bigger fight than I perhaps expected here, with visits from the ASLEF leadership and John Prescott, but this is nothing on 2015.

    One thing though, there’s no chance of a Tory gain. Their position in Ecclesall and Crookes is just too weak, they’d need to absolutely storm it in Dore, take back ground in Fulwood and exploit the Leave vote in Stannington and there’s no evidence of that.

    I’m still curious about the Brexit effect. Being in Crookes (which was 70% remain even with the student population away) we’re getting all the anti-Brexit, anti-Corbyn literature for Clegg. I’d like to see what’s going out in 1) the Leave voting bits, Loxley and Totley, and 2) the Tory-leaning areas like Dore and Whirlow.

  29. Nameless, that’s interesting to hear. So you think Labour are over-hyped here now?

  30. @ Mr Nameless

    Lab 50-1 at the start and now 11-8. Is that just guesswork by the punters or something on the ground to justify this?

    At the start of the campaign I was struggling to see where the LD vote was going to come from if they had to borrow Lab votes in 2010 backwards and then borrow Tory votes in 2015. It didn’t feel to me any reason why Lab voters would return to Clegg and why Tory voters would see the same tactical reasons this time around for voting LD. Maybe if the election gets close they would?

  31. I do think Labour’s chances are worse than the odds suggest. In 2015 I had money on at I think 7/1 and that seems about right for now too. This seat seems to be attracting a lot of betting attention (I think Ladbrokes have it as their third most bet upon seat) and that could be changing the numbers.

    There isn’t anything to suggest Clegg’s coalition of wealthy homeowners in Fulwood, Ecclesall and Dore has gone anywhere. But as Shevii says, there’s less of a push for natural Conservative voters to go Lib Dem, particularly if they voted Leave. Without them in 2015, Clegg would have lost.

    So it hinges on whether the Coppard coalition stays together. I would expect some unwind, but with the polls as they are that might be patched up with gains from the Greens and direct LD-Lab switchers.

    For now expect no change.

  32. I had started out, with Corbyn in the mid-20s in polls, thinking Clegg would probably be safely home with a vote around 45-48%. Now I think he’ll be hovering around 40 again, maybe a bit lower. Depends if Labour can get way higher.

    I would say my suspicions are about the same as Nameless’s, though he has much stronger local knowledge (I don’t think I’ve even been in Sheffield in four years, to be perfectly honest).

  33. Mike Smithson of Political Betting has had Tory squeezing literature sent out in his name here:

  34. A fool and his money are easily parted!

    The Lib Dems must be in trouble if someone is doing that.

    I suspect most people receiving the letter will wonder who on earth has sent it.

    Nice try all the same but a bit desperate.

  35. It seems like more and more people are thinking Clegg will lose… I still have doubts (surely if they were to lose, it would’ve been 2015?) but I suppose it’s possible.

  36. What could cost Clegg is seat is a mass tide of young voters going Labour on a wave of social media gossip. This is far from impossible. Don’t forget that nearly 20% of the voters in this seat are in higher and further education.

  37. Will that be true at the time of the vote, though, Frederic? Term ends; some will stay/vote here by post, but not all. Not even close to it.

  38. I agree Mr. Pitt. That is a great unkown in this seat and many others.

  39. Yes, it could save the LDs in quite a few.

  40. I get the impression that there has been a surge of postal yotes by younger electors. Around the country, that will tend to be god for Labour.

  41. What gives you that impression?

  42. I live in a student area of Hallam (and indeed live with two students) and the vast majority are still here. Exam season doesn’t end until next Friday.

  43. I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Given how much some people are complaining about the state of education it implies that most young people won’t be able to spell X in order to vote

  44. Are you still thinking LD hold though, Nameless?

  45. Questions in the recent leadership debates suggest to me that younger voters have got their gander up about things like the NHS and the unaffodrability of housing. They are not as interested in Brexit as the likes of May and Clegg might like.

  46. Mr Pitt,

    Yep. In 2015 student turnout was enormous and Labour couldn’t manage it. It’ll be lower (if still high) now.

    Frederic, you’re quite right. Most young people votes remain and I suspect the plurality of students would still like to stay in the EU if that were an option, but apart from those directly affected (science students concerned about research funding) it isn’t as high on the agenda as I might have thought.

  47. I know it’s disappointing form your end, but personally I’m glad to hear you think so. Clegg is one of my favorite modern politicians, truth be told. I like the Clegg/Cameron/Laws type much more than May or Farron or the like.

  48. My Facebook and YouTube today have been plastered with “VOTE LIB DEM TO STOP LABOUR HERE” videos.

    As a communications person I cannot express how idiotic it is not to exclude 18-25s from that message.

  49. Rumours flying around that Clegg has lost his seat!!!!

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