Sheffield, Hallam

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7544 (13.7%)
Labour: 19862 (36%)
Lib Dem: 22215 (40.2%)
Green: 1772 (3.2%)
UKIP: 3575 (6.5%)
Independent: 97 (0.2%)
Others: 167 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2353 (4.3%)

Category: Marginal Liberal Democrat seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, South Yorkshire. Part of the Sheffield council area.

Main population centres: Sheffield, High and Low Bradfield, Dungworth, Worrall.

Profile: A largely rural seat covering the south-west corner of Sheffield. This is an affluent and wealthy seat, one of the richest outside of the south-east and one of the best educated in the country. The western part of the seat is within the Peak District and is largely desolate moorland, stretching up into the pennines. Below that are small villages like like High and Low Bradfield, Dungworth, Worrall and Ringinglow. The seat then covers the westernmost fringes of Sheffield itself, some of the richest and most affluent suburbs of the city like Ecclesall and the more Conservative Totley and Dore.

Politics: A wealthy, middle-class and mostly owner-occupied seat this was a safe Conservative seat between the first world war and the 1990s. However it fell to the Liberal Democrats` Richard Allen in the anti-Conservative landslide of 1997 and he successfully passed it onto the future Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg in 2005. In 2015 some polls suggested that Clegg could lose his seat to Labour, but ultimately he held on.


Current MP
NICK CLEGG (Liberal Democrat) Born 1967, Buckinghamshire. Educated at Westminster school and Cambridge university. Former speechwriter to Sir Leon Brittan. Contested MEP for the East Midlands region 1999-2004. First elected as MP for Sheffield Hallam in 2005. Europe spokesman 2005-2006, Liberal Democrat shadow home secretary 2006-2007, Leader of the Liberal Democrats 2007-2015. Deputy Prime Minister 2010-2015. Clegg was touted as a possible leadership contender following Charles Kennedy`s resignation, though eventually he backed Sir Menzies Campbell. After Campbell`s own resignation the following year Clegg defeated Chris Huhne to become leader of the Liberal Democrats from December 2007. His performance in the first leaders` debate in the 2010 election produced a huge spike in Liberal Democrat support, which largely faded by the time of the election, but was enough to secure a hung Parliament. Clegg subsequently negotiated a coalition deal with the Conservative party, taking the third party into government for the first time since the second world war.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12040 (24%)
Lab: 8228 (16%)
LDem: 27324 (53%)
UKIP: 1195 (2%)
Oth: 2348 (5%)
MAJ: 15284 (30%)
2005*
Con: 12028 (30%)
Lab: 5110 (13%)
LDem: 20710 (51%)
GRN: 1331 (3%)
Oth: 1248 (3%)
MAJ: 8682 (21%)
2001
Con: 11856 (31%)
Lab: 4758 (12%)
LDem: 21203 (55%)
UKIP: 429 (1%)
MAJ: 9347 (24%)
1997
Con: 15074 (33%)
Lab: 6147 (14%)
LDem: 23345 (51%)
Oth: 125 (0%)
MAJ: 8271 (18%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
IAN WALKER (Conservative) Born 1958, Fulwood. Engineer.
OLIVER COPPARD (Labour) Born Sheffield. Educated at High Storrs school.
NICK CLEGG (Liberal Democrat) See above.
JOE JENKINS (UKIP) Educated at Dundee University. Student.
PETER GARBUTT (Green) English language teacher.
STEVE CLEGG (English Democrat)
JIM STOP THE FIASCO WILD (Independent)
CARLTON REEVE (Independent) Educated at Bradford university. Digital media consultant and lecturer.
Links
Comments - 2,035 Responses on “Sheffield Hallam”
  1. If you look at the wards in Hampstead & Kilburn which are entirely LD-held (Brondesbury Park, W Hampstead & Fortune Green), it’s worth noting that they were all won by Labour on the GLA list vote last year. However, the 2 which are split between the LDs & the Cons (Hampstead Town & Belsize) were won by the Conservatives. This seems to suggest that the LD vote in the constituency is somewhat more Labour- than Conservative-inclined though perhaps more so in the Brent wards than the Camden ones.

  2. Brondesbury Park is no longer entirely LD held as Carol Shaw has defected back to the Conservatives. She was originally elected as a Conservative in the ward in 2002 (having previously represented Crickelwood) and defected to the LDs around the time of Sarah Teather’s election but recently defected back (not at all opportunistic I’m sure). It does seem to me that a large amount of the LD vote there in recent years has been a Tory tactical vote although no doubt Labour can win in that area. The other two wards, particularly Fortune Green have a much longer LD pedigree and its not so clear where their vote has come from although in West Hampstead (originally West End) the initial LD victory came about by squeezing the Tory vote down to nothing so I should think there are a few potential votes to be had there as well

  3. quite true, Pete – I should have said “wards which were won outright by the LDs in 2010”.

  4. It is entirely possible for Sheffield Tories to gain Dore & Totley at next year’s Local Election (the required swing is roughly 3.5% – nearly the same as Eastleigh). This however, is only possible if the local party gets it finger out – starts campaigning and selects a decent candidate (no more “Janet Chapmans”). Sadly, I don’t see this happening; the organisation is simply incapable of electioneering and lacks a sense of purpose. Sheffield UKip is in far better position and will be the one to watch.
    Regarding the General Election, I am reliable informed that the local Tories won’t be seriously fighting Clegg – the party’s main office (CCO) has explained that under no circumstances is there to be any attempt made to unseat Clegg (of course the Tories won’t win in Hallam). To “help” matters the local party will see a return to the ridiculous ‘city seats initiative’ project which guarantees failure.

  5. Martin Day must be ecstatic as Clarkson is now pretending he’s going to stand here in 2015.

    Boris showed his attention to detail again:

    “Right idea, Jezza – wrong seat. I hope fervently that the great man can be persuaded to stand against Cleggers in Sheffield, where his majority (unlike Ed’s) is very frail indeed.”

    Doncaster North maj 10909
    Sheffield Hallam maj 15284

    Add on that Clarkson would be likely to reduce EdM’s majority slightly while he would likely increase Clegg’s majority and that demographic trends will do likewise.

  6. Jezza needs a hand.

  7. Yes I saw that excellent article in the Telegraph but raised an eyebrow over the majority.
    I think Richard you are saying that Clarkson would just eat into the Tory vote in Hallam.
    Does anyone have Harry Scott-Parker’s email address? – he might not be aware of the new site – we need him to start posting again
    or even better to stand.

  8. Didn’t Peter Stringfellow threaten to stand in Sheffield Hallam, some months ago? I think it was something to do with Clegg’s views on wealthy pensioners.

  9. Dearie me just look at Clegg’s majority- enviable for a Liberal Democrat.

    He may not stay in five figures majority wise come 2015 but I suspect his majority will remain solid here no matter what happens to his party nationally surely.

  10. ‘Didn’t Peter Stringfellow threaten to stand in Sheffield Hallam, some months ago?’

    That would only help Clegg if he did

    Why is it the most revolting people in showbiz are always keen to identify themselves as Tories – Paul Daniels, Jim Davidson, Bill Roache etc

  11. Why do you find them revolting?

  12. “Yes I saw that excellent article in the Telegraph but raised an eyebrow over the majority.”

    Don’t you find it worrying that someone who aspires to the leadership of the Conservative party has such a poor grasp of detail, a lack of conscientiousness to check things before he blurts out publicly and such an unawareness of the electoral changes which have taken place during the last generation?

    The Conservatives have already suffered from having a leader with these faults in 2010.

  13. But that is only seeing a majority on the basis of a single general election. On the basis of the 2010 election Walsall North has a smaller (and therefore more ‘frail’) majority than Cannock Chase, but which seat is more likely to change hands at the next election?
    Comparing Sheffield Hallam with Doncaster North, neither seat is likely to change hands, but Hallam is likely to see a big decline in the majority and Doncaster North a fairly substantial rise, notwithstanding any long term trends away from Labour in the latter. On that basis there are perhaps more votes up for grabs in Hallam than in Doncaster North and crucially more coming from the incumbent (in Doncaster North they would be from other small parties who did well in 2010).
    A more pertinent point to make though than the relative size of the majorities is the demographic makeup of the two seats. Clearly Doncaster North contains more of the kind of demographic who might be susceptible to Jeremy Clarkson than does Sheffield Hallam

  14. “”Why is it the most revolting people in showbiz are always keen to identify themselves as Tories – Paul Daniels, Jim Davidson, Bill Roache etc!”

    Cyril Smith…oh wait1

  15. ”Why is it the most revolting people in showbiz are always keen to identify themselves as Tories – Paul Daniels, Jim Davidson, Bill Roache etc!”

    I don’t really see what Cyril Smith has to do with this diuscussion – he was in politics, not showbizz

    The three I mentioined are just examples of the type of much-loathed B-list celebrities the Tories always seem to attract to endorse them at election time – completely unaware that such characters will pose them far more votes then they will gain

    It has nothing to do with the allegations against the latter two (although if they are proved it merely reinforces my point)- which i presume is how Cyril Smith got mentioned

    Of course there are a handful of decent celebrities who support the Tories too – Carole Vorderman, Bob Geldoff, Trevor MacDonald to name a view – but as so often seems the case they are knocked out the limelight by the mad and the bad who have a tendency to flock to the Conservatoive cause come election day

  16. Lib Dems are so nice

  17. Why is it the LIb Dems are allowed to write this kind of gossipy vicious bile on here?

    If you look at my posts, I do hardly ever attack anyone personally atall – apart from Ed Balls admittedly – only point out that the Lib Dems
    use this kind of tactic, and it affects political trends – which is true and valid.

    But feel free to delete my post
    and leave the above posts instead.

  18. I should add – I find most of Tim’s posts very interesting – so this is unfortunate.

  19. Judging by the viewing numbers they received Tim Jones’s list of the ‘much-loathed’ and ‘revolting’ also had no shortage of fans.

  20. Pete

    But the comment by Boris was related to the likelihood of Clarkson winning.

    And as we know the chances of Clarkson getting any sort of reasonable vote in Hallam are zero, in fact Clarkson standing as an Independent would probably increase the size of Clegg’s majority as Clarkson would be more likely to take Conservative and Labour votes than LibDem.

    Whereas it is conceivable that Clarkson might reduce the size of EdM’s majority if he was able to hoover up all the non-Labour votes in Doncaster North.

  21. Tim, I wrote that comment simply to write something as equally babyish as yourself.

  22. Babyish and online – not face to face.

  23. What was the comment that RobberButton referred to?

  24. Nick Clegg will hold on I believe, but with a halved majority.
    LD HOLD MAJ: 14.8%
    LD 38
    LAB 23
    CON 21
    UKIP 9
    GRN 6
    OTH 3

  25. Thats actually quite sensible as a prediction for a change WOC. Still think both UKIP and Green are high.

  26. It is a big university seat! 🙂

  27. List of seats at the October 1974 General Election contested by the Liberals where the Liberals had not stood candidates in February 1974-
    1. Aberavon- S Cutts, 5, 178 (10.96%)
    2. Aberdare- G Hill, 2, 118 (5.54%)
    3. Angus South- H Will, 2, 529 (6.49%)
    4. Ayr- N Tosh, 2, 611 (6.33%)
    5. Ayrshire Central- J Watts, 2, 640 (5.62%)
    6. Ayrshire South- R Mabon, 2, 130 (5.36%)
    7. Barnsley- P Tomlinson, 8, 753 (16.72%)
    8. Bassetlaw- A Wilkinson, 7, 821 (14.65%)
    9. Belper- JJ Wates, 9, 017 (15.53%)
    10. Berwick and East Lothian- CF Lawson, 2, 811 (5.89%)
    11. Birmingham Edgbaston- P Davies, 7, 770 (17.53%)
    12. Birmingham Hall Green- I Powney, 8, 532 (18.14%)
    13. Birmingham Northfield- D Hains, 7, 851 (14.91%)
    14. Birmingham Small Heath- D Caney, 4, 260 (14.39%)
    15. Birmingham Sparkbrook- C Williams, 2, 920 (9.77%)
    16. Blackpool North- G Mulholland, 7, 750 (18.63%)
    17. Blaydon- P Barker, 7, 439 (17.94%)
    18. Bolsover- M Taylor, 5, 176 (13.39%)
    19. Burton- K Stevens, 7, 969 (15.07%)
    20. Bury And Radcliffe- A Benson, 10, 463 (16.64%)
    21. Caerphilly- NH Lewis, 3, 184 (7.46%)
    22. Carlisle- F Phillips, 5, 306 (12.88%)
    23. Coatbridge and Airdrie- A Smith, 1, 446 (3.24%)
    24. Coventry North East- R Dredge, 6, 846 (15.38%)
    25. Coventry North West- P Newnham, 5, 798 (15.66%)
    26. Dagenham- G Poole, 7, 564 (16.63%)
    27. Derbyshire North East- C Cook, 10, 336 (20.44%)
    28. Don Valley- E Simpson, 10, 161 (15.60%)
    29. Dudley East- G Hopkins, 5, 003 (12.14%)
    30. Dudley West- A Martin, 7, 259 (12.91%)
    31. Dunbartonshire West- JD Murricane, 2, 029 (4.99%)
    32. Dundee East- C Brodie, 1, 302 (2.81%)
    33. Dundee West- R Hewett, 2, 195 (4.62%)
    34. Easington- NJ Scaggs, 7, 005 (15.91%)
    35. East Kilbride- D Miller, 2, 644 (5.08%)
    36. Edinburgh Leith- AJH Squair, 1, 836 (6.22%)
    37. Fylde North- A Perry, 11, 254 (21.06%)
    38. Glasgow Cathcart- H Wills, 1, 058 (2.77%)
    39. Glasgow Craigton- R McIntyre, 1, 728 (5.15%)
    40. Glasgow Garscadden- MR Kibby, 1, 915 (4.94%)
    41. Glasgow Kelvingrove- S Glasgow, 1, 735 (6.42%)
    42. Glasgow Maryhill- E Attwooll, 1, 063 (3.13%)
    43. Glasgow Pollok- MC Todd, 2, 274 (5.29%)
    44. Glasgow Queen’s Park- M Aitchison, 966 (3.72%)
    45. Glasgow Shettleston- RJ Brodie, 690 (2.80%)
    46. Glasgow Springburn- T Marshall, 865 (2.71%)
    47. Goole- JT Clarkson, 5, 285 (11.80%)
    48. Grantham- WT Bailey, 10, 752 (18.47%)
    49. Hamilton- J Calder, 1, 559 (4.01%)
    50. Hartlepool- L Tostevin, 6, 314 (13.35%)
    51. Hayes and Harlington- C Lyon, 6, 336 (16.29%)
    52. Hemsworth- R Taylor, 5, 607 (11.45%)
    53. Houghton-le-Spring- W Robson, 9, 298 (21.43%)
    54. Hull Central- N Turner, 7, 810 (18.24%)
    55. Hull East- J Adamson, 10, 196 (18.61%)
    56. Ince- J Gibb, 8, 436 (15.12%)
    57. Jarrow- L Ormston, 5, 818 (14.89%)
    58. Kirkaldy- F Young, 2, 788 (6.11%)
    59. Lanark- F McDermid, 1, 374 (3.45%)
    60. Lanarkshire North- AP Brodie, 1, 899 (4.41%)
    61. Leicester East- W Capstick, 5, 668 (12.27%)
    62. Leicester West- J Windram, 5, 135 (11.61%)
    63. Mansfield- D Chambers, 9, 358 (18.55%)
    64. Meriden- D Minnis, 12, 782 (17.49%)
    65. Middlesbrough- C Wood, 5, 080 (13.78%)
    66. Midlothian- P Wheeler, 4, 793 (6.94%)
    67. Moray and Nairn- K Schellenberg, 2, 814 (9.15%)
    68. Motherwell and Wishaw- DP Young, 1, 126 (2.90%)
    69. Neath- D Owen, 3, 759 (9.23%)
    70. Newark- IGM Jones, 8, 116 (14.61%)
    71. Newcastle upon Tyne Central- A Ellis, 1, 716 (11.68%)
    72. Newcastle upon Tyne East- T Symonds, 4, 391 (13.40%)
    73. Newcastle upon Tyne West- H Devereux, 7, 945 (14.99%)
    74. Normanton- W Whitaker, 7, 384 (17.79%)
    75. Paisley- D Thompson, 3, 116 (6.53%)
    76. Pontefract and Castleford- S Galloway, 5, 259 (12.26%)
    77. Redcar- N Clark, 7, 101 (16.48%)
    78. Rother Valley- G Reid, 9, 828 (14.80%)
    79. Rutherglen- RE Brown, 2, 424 (6.30%)
    80. Sheffield Attercliffe- G Broadhead, 5, 282 (12.30%)
    81. South Shields- L Garbutt, 8, 106 (17.26%)
    82. Stalybridge and Hyde- DF Burden, 7, 725 (15.89%)
    83. Stepney and Poplar- F Alexander, 3, 181 (10.22%)
    84. Stirling Falkirk and Grangemouth- D Angles, 1, 477 (2.89%)
    85. Stirlingshire East and Clackmannan- D Shields, 1, 268 (2.48%)
    86. Strilingshire West- I MacFarlane, 1, 865 (4.36%)
    87. Stockton- N Long, 6, 906 (11.68%)
    88. Stoke-on-Trent Central- A Thomas, 6, 313 (15.80%)
    89. Stoke-on-Trent North- M Smith, 6, 239 (14.96%)
    90. Swansea East- R Anstey, 5, 173 (12.35%)
    91. Wallsend- P Hampton, 10, 453 (16.34%)
    92. Walsall North- W Gill, 6, 377 (13.39%)
    93. Warley East- R Smith, 4, 664 (12.08%)
    94. Warley West- D Owen, 6, 363 (15.51%)
    95. West Bromwich East- JPT Hunt, 5, 442 (13.78%)
    96. West Bromwich West- DJ Corney, 3, 619 (9.65%)
    97. Western Isles- N MacMillan, 789 (5.54%)
    98. West Lothian- H MacAulay, 2, 083 (3.41%)
    99. Whitehaven- M Gilbert, 5, 563 (14.16%)
    100. Widnes- A Turner, 7, 067 (13.27%)
    101. Wigan- J Campbell, 5, 548 (13.18%)
    102. Wolverhampton North East- J Porter, 7, 156 (15.55%)
    103. Workington- J Burns, 4, 728 (11.75%)

  28. Interesting progress polling on what has happened to the LD vote since 2010

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/11/01/stuck-in-the-middle-3/

    It shouldn’t take a genius to understand why I am excited about the future of British politics.

  29. Interesting article.. the writer lauds firstly the Milliband attack on energy companies.. and I admit they are fair game… however I am hearing a lot of people who don’t usually think about the subject now wondering aloud whether the recent outsized hikes in tariffs were in fact brought on by the threat of Milliband’s tariff freeze… sort of “get in while the going is good”…

    Curiously the government parties are gearing up to blame him for the preemptory hikes…

  30. I do think Miliband is on to something here, regardless of whether the price freeze in itself is a gimmick or not.

    As a bare minimum Labour should also consider nationalising the English monopolised water companies.

  31. the problem is its too narrow just to attack energy companies esp as he has plans that will increase the cost of living i.e what effect will building 200000 homes have on gas,Electic,land and food prices.

  32. At the end of the day, the tories have reduced council tax more than labour would have done, which balances things out. Other costs like food are probably even bigger dents to a family’s budgets.

    It’s a desperate tactic to avoid talking about the economy. The tories will carry on going back to it over and over again as long as it is doing well.

    It was a timely and thought provoking intervention by Miliband, but he can’t overplay his hand on this and will have to change track ASAP.

  33. And of course the GE will be in May, when we won’t be thinking about energy as much as now, with the long summer months to look forward too.

  34. Posted this in the main thread, but probably worth recording here:

    I went street campaigning in Crookes Ward on the energy price freeze this morning, sort of by accident. What I found is only qualitative, but it’s food for thought.

    – We had to stop early, not because we weren’t getting any support or the weather turned, but because we ran out of petition sheets. Given that we had 30 printed, that’s 390 signatures in an hour and a half – that’s fairly impressive I think.

    – Very negative reception to any mention of Nick Clegg. We had several people wavering before Oliver Coppard, the Labour PPC, told them he was trying to unseat Nick Clegg, at which point you’d think they were going to burst into ‘The Red Flag’.

    – The Sheffield Hallam CLP seem very confident in their chances. This seems odd, because they’re trying to come from 16% to overturn a majority of 19,000 over the Labour Party. I asked them about it, and they told me their internal polling has them currently getting ~35% of the 2010 Lib Dem vote – enough to put them roughly level with Clegg. I haven’t actually seen their figures though, so I couldn’t verify it.

    – The Energy Price Freeze seems to hit home very well with voters. Several people looked dismissively at the leaflet until they saw what it promised, at which point they came over and signed the petition. We had very high participation in the petition, actually – probably 30% or so of people we asked came and signed, which is way above my previous experience.

    – UKIP supporters, although they say they won’t vote Labour, still signed the petition. Cost of living could be a major source of UKIP-returners to Labour.

    Of course, that’s from one morning’s campaigning in one ward of the seat – I would think out in Fulwood etc., the results might be different. But it’s a view of what’s happening on the ground, and it’s rather different from what I would have expected.

  35. It’s extraordinary to think that there’s a very real chance of the Tories coming third in this seat, given that just twenty years ago it was a reasonably safe seat for the party and there hasn’t been the sort of demographic shift that accounts for their collapse in places like Withington and Yardley that they also held in the early 90s

  36. When Richard Allan first won this seat for the Lib Dems in 1992 though, it was quite incredible. The swing was 15.3% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat and was one of the largest that the Tories suffered against them anywhere in the UK, which really does say a lot given it WAS 1997. In fact, Irvine Patnick’s vote only fell by 12.4% compared to Richard Allan’s mighty increase of 18.2%, but what was just as striking IMHO about the result was that in an election where Labour were making huge gains off the swingometer, this seat was actually one of a select few tactical gang-ups against the Tories were Labour fell by a significant amount to help the Lib Dems win- 6.6% to be exact. A similar thing happened in another Yorkshire seat also won by the Lib Dems from the Tories on a large swing, Harrogate and Knaresborough, though the Labour decrease wasn’t as dramatic I don’t think.

    Allan went on to increase his majority again in 2001, with another increase in vote share of 4.1%, and the Tories since they have lost his seat have gone on to fall by 2.1% in 2001, 1.3% in 2005, and 6.6% in 2010. So the seat is definitely moving away from them and it is conceivable that if Labour have a good enough night they might just be able to snatch second place off them here.

    One final point is this- When Nick Clegg was first elected here in 2005, the result was pretty much static on 2001. Obviously as we know when a lot of incumbent Lib Dem MPs stand down, they take a good chunk of the vote in the constituency for the party with them, be it down to personal popularity, hard work or whatnot. Anyhow, the vote fell by 4.3%, but so did the Conservatives, and here’s what happened to the numerical votes compared to 2001 in 2005 for reference that may look interesting-

    Lib Dem- -493
    Con- +172
    Lab- +359
    UKIP- +9

    Majority- -665

    So although Allan’s incumbency was lost here for the Lib Dems in 2005, Clegg still scored a solid result with over 50% of the vote with very little change in the majority.

  37. I of course meant to say that Allan first won this in 1997.

  38. That’s all correct. If this seat had followed the pattern shown in some other seats, including the vaguely similar Bristol W, Labour would have won here in 1997 & not the LDs. Had they actually done so, Nick Clegg might not even in Parliament nbw, let alone be deputy PM.

  39. Well it’s strange isn’t it, because really you would have thought if you weren’t a political person that Sheffield would look like the sort of city where Labour would win all over- But we can all take a deep, deep look here and see that the countryside in parts of this seat have more in common with neighbouring rural Derbyshire, and indeed teeters on the edge of the Peak District- We know there has always been affluence here of significance, therefore I don’t know if perhaps the livelihoods of a lot of people in this constituency has maybe made them more prepared to vote Lib Dem than Labour if they don’t like the look of the Tories?

  40. Joe – I don’t think any of those arguments work. Council tax hasn’t gone down, it’s just been frozen and you can’t get plaudits for the raises you didn’t make. In any case, an increasingly large number of councils have been ignoring the freeze and that’s been particularly common with Tory-run county councils. It’s understandable they’ve done so given the pressure on the social care budget, but it makes it a very difficult issue for the Tories to run on this time round.

    Food does cost more than energy for most households, but there is no easy way to impose price controls there. So I doubt the electorate will actually complain about Labour not proposing things that can’t be done.

    And energy prices are a part of how people view the economy more generally. It’s a bit of the economy that’s more profitable for Labour to talk about than the deficit, but no sensible party focuses the conversation upon the issues they perform worst on.

  41. The Conservative decline here is a bit to the way Labour has declined in a few southern seats where they were once in a strong position some decades back. Both are presumably down to demographic changes to an extent but also possibly because of a changing mindset of voters. Hallam is still quite middle class in suburbs like Dore and Fulwood.

    Going under 30% in 2010, when they were once very dominant here is weird.

    You have to go back to the pre-80s to see that Labour usually finished in second place here. Interestingly it was when Irvine Patnick took over from John Osborn in 1987 that the Tory vote began to dip. He had a 7k+ majority which was decent, but down from previous times.

    Have the Tories selected a candidate here? Or if not, whether there’s a timetable for selection in place?

    Clegg will hold because the student ‘backlash’ will come predominantly from the Crookes ward. A lot of people online seem to think that he’ll be turfed out easily, but don’t look at the boundaries of Hallam. Except for Crookes, the other student wards are mainly located in Sheffield Central. Hence why the latter almost fell to the Lib Dems in 2010.

  42. Yeah, Broomhill was lost to Central, which is a bit rubbish for Anti-Clegg sentiment because that’s where the Ranmoor and Endcliffe villages are.

    It must be said though that most of the anti-Clegg sentiment I found today came from the elderly and parents.

  43. I don’t know Sheffield but I think it’s fair to say that crudely speaking this constituency is like Cheadle (which I know inside out) without the students/university effect.

    The aggregate change from a large Tory majority in 1992 to a LD one in 2010 is actually only slightly bigger than Cheadle here.

  44. MRNAMELESS –

    The Endcliffe and Ranmoor student villages are both in Fulwood ward.

  45. I’m getting a bit muddled here (no university effect in Cheadle) but my general point is clear.

    Anyway 2015 IMO

    LD 40
    Lab 26
    Con 21
    Others 13

  46. Oops, got that a bit wrong then. Thanks for clarifying that, David Ashforth.

  47. I think that almost all this constituency is middle-class, not just one or two wards. Only a few enclaves could really be described as anything else. I think A Brown’s comparison of this seat to Cheadle is pretty apt. In my opinion, in this seat just as in Cheadle, it’s not demographic change which has damaged the Conservatives – it’s a political decision by important sectors of the professional & educated middle classes to switch from them to the LDs. The Tories are however doing rather better in Cheadle though I still doubt whether they will retrieve that seat.

  48. David Ashforth

    Did not know that, was wrongly informed. Thanks for clarifying!

  49. People don’t like their bills rising shocker 😉

  50. It’s funny to think this seat only saw the Liberals come into play in 1987- in a lot of seats they currently hold they had tended to be more longterm targets than that.

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