Sedgefield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11432 (29.5%)
Labour: 18275 (47.2%)
Lib Dem: 1370 (3.5%)
Green: 1213 (3.1%)
UKIP: 6426 (16.6%)
MAJORITY: 6843 (17.7%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Durham. Part of County Durham council area and part of the Darlington council area.

Main population centres: Newton Aycliffe, Sedgefield, Ferryhill, Trimdon.

Profile: A former mining seat in County Durham. Sedgefield itself is a small town of 5000, from where the Conservatives draw what little strength they have in the constituency. The rest of the seat is made up of former coalfields and mining villages, now diversifying into light engineering, and the countryside surrounding Darlington. The main population centre is the new town of Newton Aycliffe, built in 1947.

Politics: Sedgefield is a rock solid Labour seat, and had been held by Labour since its creation in 1983, most notably by Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair who represented the seat from 1983 until 2007. Tony Blair retired to become a Middle Eastern peace envoy in 2007 and Labour held the seat on a reduced, but still solid, majority.


Current MP
PHIL WILSON (Labour) Born 1959, Durham. Educated at Trimdon Secondary Modern. Former shop assistant, clerical worker and aide to Tony Blair, instrumental in originally selecting Blair in 1983. First elected as MP for Sedgefield in 2007 by-election.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9445 (23%)
Lab: 18141 (45%)
LDem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5%)
Oth: 2528 (6%)
MAJ: 8696 (22%)
2005*
Con: 5972 (14%)
Lab: 24429 (59%)
LDem: 4935 (12%)
UKIP: 646 (2%)
Oth: 5501 (13%)
MAJ: 18457 (44%)
2001
Con: 8397 (21%)
Lab: 26110 (65%)
LDem: 3624 (9%)
UKIP: 974 (2%)
Oth: 1153 (3%)
MAJ: 17713 (44%)
1997
Con: 8383 (18%)
Lab: 33526 (71%)
LDem: 3050 (6%)
Oth: 474 (1%)
MAJ: 25143 (53%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SCOTT WOOD (Conservative)
PHIL WILSON (Labour) See above.
STEPHEN GLENN (Liberal Democrat)
JOHN LEATHLEY (UKIP)
GREG ROBINSON (Green)
Links
Comments - 93 Responses on “Sedgefield”
  1. I am not sure where he thinks this mysterious ‘power base’ is going to materialise from. I doubt it will be from within the current Labour party.

  2. Even in Blair’s old seat Labour are slowly losing their grip

  3. “He thinks there’s a massive hole in British politics…”

    He’s right about that…

    “…that he can fill.”

    …but not about that.

  4. How many other seats are there where?

    a) the Conservative vote has doubled since 2005
    b) the Conservative share is up 15% since 2005

  5. *Seats where a) OR b) apply

  6. Seats where the Conservatives are up 15%+ since 2005:

    Kingswood – 16.2%
    Sedgefield – 15.3%
    Brigg & Goole – 15.1%

  7. A bridge to far this election
    Narrow hold

    LAB 42
    CON 36
    UKiP 13
    LD 7

  8. Probably, but I think this’ll be alarmingly close for LAB if they hold.

    Though I think UKIP will be lower than that.

    This would be a shock gain for the Conservatives, Bishop Auckland and Darlington are more likely.,

    I have ramped this one until the cows come home so have no choice but to predict…

    CON GAIN

  9. I’d be surprised if the Conservatives gained this- I think Labour will hold by about 7-8% or so. However, I think they could well take both Bishop Auckland and Darlington.

  10. That’s my thinking as well, Tory. Sedgefield is not quite within reach for the blues just yet but Darlington and Bishop Auckland certainly are.

  11. 59% Leave vote here suggests this is at least in play if double-digit poll leads for the Tories hold.

  12. If we have a 20 point lead goimg into the final few days we can take this seriously, but it does need to be up around that level.

    Personally I think we are more likely to see a 13 to 16 point lead.

  13. The fact that we’re even talking about the possibility of this going Tory says much for the sort of landslide people expect to happen…

    My grandparents live here, and it still has that rock-solid Labour feel, and even I (in all my optimism) find it hard to see the majority being anything less than 8-10% for Labour.

  14. With a 13-16 point lead nationally (4-5% swing), and unusually varied swings across the country, it would be surprising if a handful of seats in the 15-20% range (requiring 7-10% swing) didn’t fall.

  15. I agree.

    I guess there could be a few shock gains just like there were in 1983

    I’d have seats like Bassetlaw, Birmingham, Erdington; Mansfield, Stoke-on-Trent North, Walsall South and Stocksbridge & Penistone on the list as potential shock Con gains.

  16. Nana and Grandad have lived in this seat since 1989 and both have voted Labour since the 1955 election, I wonder how they’re voting on 8 June.

  17. Could see a shock Conservative gain in this seat actually, it would be something like this

    CON 39
    LAB 38
    UKIP 10
    LDEM 9
    GRN 4

    Maybe? I think LAB will hold here but who knows

  18. Do you know how they voted in the referendum Plop?

  19. Both Leavers I think, read the Daily Mail religiously as well.

  20. Imagine Dimbleby saying that on the morning of 9 June:

    “Tony Blair’s old seat has been won by the Conservatives…”

  21. Tories won’t even come close in seats like this. For all that the polls are showing, they have a natural ceiling in a lot of areas that will limit the swing and their ability to advance

  22. @PAUL D

    Did you ever think they’d shave 5% of the Labour majority here in 2015 or get nearly 30% of the vote?

    I doubt it.

  23. Paul D @ Many people argued that Labour could not lose ultra safe Labour seats to the SNP….contary to the polls….but they did.

  24. I wonder what the LDs do here. Do they even bother? That 1300 votes could be very useful to someone.

  25. Tory 39%

    Labour 38%

    tory gain.

  26. CON GAIN 400 maj.

  27. Didn’t thatchers constituency go labour in 1997?

  28. It did, but there were boundary changes in 1997 and I think the old Finchley seat was notionally Tory.

    Even today it’s still semi-marginal, but since it has the greatest number of Jews of any seat in the country it’s probably unlikely to go red again any time soon.

  29. I’d say there’s a good chance of a Tory gain here… Maybe a four-in-ten shot.

  30. Yep. Plopwellian’/Con Estimate/Maxim’s long-held fantasies about a Con gain in Sedgefield may be about to come true sooner than even he thought was possible.

  31. I’m no sure what planet Polltroll is on re Finchley. The 1997 boundary changes made the seat far better for the Tories yet they still lost it until 2010. On Thatcher’s boundaries Labour might have just about held Finchley in 2010 but most likely not in 2015.

  32. In a recent council by-election in a Sedgefield ward the Tory candidate got zero. Nothing. Nada. Not a single vote. She didn’t live there so couldn’t vote. Her cousin lived in the ward and didnt vote for her. Rock solid Labour hold. 4k Maj at least. Let’s be realistic here shall we.

    http://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/no-vote-tory-i-m-not-surprised-1-1019229

  33. That happened again? I know it happened about 10 years ago here.

  34. That article is from May 2007, so not exactly ‘recent’. Tony Blair was still the MP for Sedgefield at the time.

  35. ”On Thatcher’s boundaries Labour might have just about held Finchley in 2010 but most likely not in 2015.”

    @H.Hemmelig

    Surely it would be the other way round? Finchley and Golders Green had a small Labour swing in 2015 and it is highly likely that the Finchley part of the seat had a fair swing to Labour while the Golders Green part of the seat (gained from Hendon South in ’97) swung Tory by a similar amount thus almost cancelling each other out. The bits of Finchley lost to Chipping Barnet in ’97 would certainly have swung Labour in 2015 too. So I’m pretty sure Labour would have done better in Thatcher’s old Finchley in 2015 than they did on 2010 and I think it looks like they probably would have won it both years anyway.

  36. Yes, on reflection that’s probably right.

    Actually when you do the numbers it would have been mighty close in both years, too close to call definitively.

    Finchley has become more similar to neighbouring Haringey whilst Golders Green and the Garden Suburb have remained much more solid for the Tories.

  37. This one of those ones that might be worth putting a fiver on you’d get really good odds I would imagine

  38. Cons are actually bookies’ favourites here

    Con 4/7
    Lab 6/5

    So that’s £2.85 profit for your fiver.

  39. I’m always mindful of how white Hornsey & Wood Green is, relatively speaking. It’s not that different to Enfield, Southgate in ethnic makeup.

  40. The fact that Tony Blair’s old stomping ground is even being mooted as a possible Tory gain says it all!

  41. I saw an election prediction site (not a particularly reputable one) that was forecasting Labour to hold this with a majority of 6!

    Maxim, if you’re watching, you only need to persuade your grandparents and two other people in this seat to change their allegiances to swing the seat 😉

  42. Quite a shift in the bookies’ odds for this seat since my post 4 days ago (per Paddy Power). As of today:

    Lab 8/11 fav
    Con evens

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