Scunthorpe

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12259 (34.2%)
Labour: 15393 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 770 (2.1%)
Green: 887 (2.5%)
UKIP: 6329 (17.7%)
Independent: 206 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3134 (8.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, Humberside. Part of North Lincolnshire council area.

Main population centres: Scunthorpe.

Profile: Consists of the town of Scunthorpe itself and a stretch of flat countryside and small villages to the south of the M180. Scunthorpe itself is a gritty industrial town, dominated by the steel industry and its support services. Tata Steel are by far the biggest local employer.

Politics: Scunthorpe is a reliable Labour seat, held by the party since 1987. The former MP Elliot Morley was one of those caught up in the expenses scandal, accused of continuing to claim interest on a mortgage after the mortgage itself had been paid off. Morley stood down at the 2010 election and was later prosecuted and sentenced to sixteen months imprisonment for false accounting.


Current MP
NICHOLAS DAKIN (Labour) Born 1955. Educated at Longslade Upper School and Hull University. Former teacher. Leader of North Lincolnshire Council 1997-2003. First elected as MP for Scunthorpe in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12091 (33%)
Lab: 14640 (40%)
LDem: 6774 (18%)
UKIP: 1686 (5%)
Oth: 1843 (5%)
MAJ: 2549 (7%)
2005*
Con: 8392 (26%)
Lab: 17355 (53%)
LDem: 5556 (17%)
UKIP: 1361 (4%)
MAJ: 8963 (27%)
2001
Con: 9724 (29%)
Lab: 20096 (60%)
LDem: 3156 (9%)
Oth: 649 (2%)
MAJ: 10372 (31%)
1997
Con: 10934 (26%)
Lab: 25107 (60%)
LDem: 3497 (8%)
Oth: 399 (1%)
MAJ: 14173 (34%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JO GIDEON (Conservative) Businesswoman and communications consultant. Thanet councillor since 2003.
NICHOLAS DAKIN (Labour) See above.
SIMON DODD (Liberal Democrat) Solicitor.
STEPHEN HOWD (UKIP) Educated at Westminster School and Oxford University. Barrister. Contested Cleethorpes 2001 for the Conservative party.
MARTIN DWYER (Green) GP.
PAUL ELSOM (Independent) Lorry driver.
DES COMERFORD (Independent) Retailler.
Links
Comments - 53 Responses on “Scunthorpe”
  1. Why was Scunthorpe previously in the Brigg & Scunthorpe and then Glandford & Scunthorpe constituencies rather than the Scunthorpe & Brigg and the the Scunthorpe & Glandford constituencies?

    Scunthorpe clearly being the larger and more important place.

  2. Winds of Change 2015

    Green 10,135
    *Lab 10,079
    UKIP 9,984
    Con 7,765
    LD 205

    Green Gain from Lab
    Maj 56

  3. Joe in full silly mode this morning. What brought THAT on?

  4. The Conservatives should have held their conference here.

    Can anyone guess why?

  5. Scunthorpe is surprisingly good for business visitors in terms of hotels nearby etc, so it’s not the stupid idea some might think.

    Tata’s European purchasing is centred here so there is quite a flow of visitors from all over Europe through the town.

  6. i don’t know

  7. Here’s a clue:

    What does Scunthorpe have which Manchester doesn’t.

    Something which would baffle the London media and which could be used to make a political point.

  8. a con council….

  9. Does anyone know what Elliot Morley does know?

  10. Something like sweeping the streets would be appropriate

  11. working in a sewer ha ha

  12. I would definitely go if the conference was here.
    The Council is Conservative mainly because of the Brigg section and the Isle of Axholme.

  13. Is this the least euphonious name for a seaside resort ever?

    Just the name puts one off conferencing there.. it has Two Ronnies overtones

  14. do my eyes deceive me or does this seat have less than 38,000 voters?

    seems ripe for amalgamation..

  15. “Is this the least euphonious name for a seaside resort ever?”

    Its not a seaside resort, its an industrial town.

    “do my eyes deceive me or does this seat have less than 38,000 voters?

    seems ripe for amalgamation”

    Constituencies are based upon the number of voters, not the number who actually vote.

  16. it is a small seat with 64000 voters

  17. Scunthorpe is one of the most industrially scarred towns in the UK- with no shortage of heavy industry eyesores

    It seems amazing that the Tories ever held such a seat in the 1980s – and I wonder how much of the electorate the town itself accounts for

  18. The population of Scunthorpe is 73K, the electorate of this seat is 66K, so its safe to say that the majority of this seat is scunthorpe proper.

  19. “It seems amazing that the Tories ever held such a seat in the 1980s”

    It’s not a surprise to me. We had policies that actually made a difference back then. I cannot see us gaining this seat anytime soon though.

  20. If this seat contained the proper number of voters, presumably more tory hinterland would be included, and the seat would be very marginal.

  21. It was Brigg and scunthorpe in 1979 and glanford and scunthorpe in 1983, both containing rural areas which might have been nearly all tory votes, but I take your point that the policies were right. Not a bad rersult in 2010. I suspect a lot of the lib dem vote could go labour next time even if tories do achieve a rise

  22. This was the proposed change to the seat’s makeup..

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/calcwork.pl?seat=Scunthorpe

  23. Well despite all the comment on here and elsewhere, the Conservatives did seem to do rather well among WWC voters in 2010. Whether they can sustain this – and indeed improve on it further over time, which they need to do – is another matter.

  24. I suspect a lot of the lib dem vote could go labour next time even if tories do achieve a rise – Agreed JJB

    Whether they can sustain this – and indeed improve on it further over time, which they need to do – is another matter – I really do hope so Ruunymede

  25. Well I think it’s inevitably the direction our politics will take, as has been the case in the US. That’s in many ways unfortunate, but unavoidable. UKIP’s recent success is a symptom of it.

  26. Pete

    Would it be possible to please reconstruct how the 1979 seat of Brigg and Scunthorpe voted in 2010?

  27. “Well despite all the comment on here and elsewhere, the Conservatives did seem to do rather well among WWC voters in 2010.”

    Only by default.

    That was an anti-Labour vote rather than pro-Conservative.

    Gordon Brown’s trip to Rochdale probably gave the Conservatives another five MPs.

    The great irony of 2010 was that the Conservatives targeted one group of voters, failed to get them but were saved by their undeserved success among a different group of voters whom they had shown no interest in.

  28. Ohh very funny JJB- I’m sure this is a dead cert Tory gain actually! I will provide a considered estimate for this seat unlike yourself 😉
    Lab 45
    Con 29
    LD 13
    UKIP 9
    GRN 4

  29. @ JJB
    my guess using local data as a guide the 1979 seat of Brigg and Scunthorpe would have voted in 2010 is
    con 28575
    lab 25325
    maj 3250

  30. Tata Corus is making 500 people redundant – approx. 350 in Scunthorpe, 100 in Teeside and 50 in Workington. They are rationalising their construction steels business.

    Of all steels, those used in construction have fared worst during the recession.

    Since 2007, UK consumption of construction steels has declined by 50%.

  31. Tata steel is in a lot of trouble.

  32. In Europe yes, in India they are doing fine.

  33. My 2015 forecast here:

    Lab 44
    Con 25
    UKIP 18
    LD 9
    Others 4

  34. I’ve been here a few times now so here’s a prediction-

    Lab- 43%
    Con- 27%
    UKIP- 19%
    Lib- 8%
    Green- 3%

  35. Labour: 45%
    Conservatives- 25%
    UKIP- 21%
    Lib Dems- 6%
    Others- 3%

  36. Straightforward Labour hold IMO, but a tricky seat to do a full prediction for.

    On like-for-like boundaries I think the Lib Dems would have gone up by more than 1% in 2010. My presumption is therefore that the boundary changes hurt them, and their vote only held up because Elliot Morley enticed a larger proportion of Labour voters to go that way in protest than would have been the case than in other seats where it was “just” the economy. I therefore think this will be one of the LD’s higher share 2010 seats in which they go on to lose their deposit.

    Normally in urban seats the boundary changes don’t help the Tories, they simply make

    Also looking at the 2010 results I suspect UKIP will be a closer third, though I openly admit to not having specific knowledge of the area. My resulting prediction is:

    Labour 48%
    Con 24%
    UKIP 21%
    Lib Dems 4%
    Others 3%

    Although I’m torn on the UKIP vs Con prediction. UKIP did very well in the Euros in the region, and a combination of 8.5% UKIP + BNP in 2010 and the fact that I think the size of the LD protest vote here was particularly large last time leads me to think that 21% is realistic. But they lack any sort of local foothold – albeit the local elections were three and a half years ago.

  37. (partly deleted paragraph continues… they simply make the overall picture better in neighbouring constituencies. That doesn’t appear to have been the case here, where I believe outlying wards were added, which if correct suggests that 2010 wasn’t as strong as it could have been for them and therefore a lot of the right-leaning vote could be tempted by UKIP)

  38. I know there was a particular set of circumstances in 2010 but you’d have thought given the 7% gap the Tories would have had a candidate selected ages ago

  39. UKIP have suspended their candidate due to a “workplace incident”.

    https://twitter.com/RadioHumberside/status/578907288544632832

  40. Labour Hold. 5,000 majority.

  41. probably somewhat more. The Labour majority was surely depressed last time by the Elliott Morley expenses-fiddling scandal.

  42. Both main parties up. I’d like to think the Tories would have a chance although Labour have a substantial 9% lead.

    Again, look how the UKIP vote has basically replaced the LD vote of 2005/10.
    As elsewhere, there will be
    Unless the swing is LD > Lab/C and Lab/C > UKIP.

    I think this looks rather too Labour a seat for it to just top over the edge should the Tories remain in a strong position.
    The large swing in the Brigg and Goole constituency doesn’t really apply to here. There are some Tory wards and also some countryside still included.

  43. A lot will depend on redistribution in this area.

  44. Very much so.
    I’d have thought anything based around a core Scunthorpe is too much for the Tories though – even if they continue to do well.

  45. ‘I think this looks rather too Labour a seat for it to just top over the edge should the Tories remain in a strong position.’

    Scunthorpe itself is one of the ugliest towns in the UK, with its giant steelworks dominating the skyline

    I’d say the Tiries have done well to get within a few thgoudsand votes of Labour

  46. This was a pretty bad result for Labour, increasing their majority by just 600 votes. I thought they’d win by at least 5,000.

  47. Sorry I never thanked Myth11 from October 2013.

    This is a very interesting post – I wonder what 2015 would have been –

    myth11


    @ JJB
    my guess using local data as a guide the 1979 seat of Brigg and Scunthorpe would have voted in 2010 is
    con 28575
    lab 25325
    maj 3250

    October 21st, 2013 at 1:16 am “

  48. The Tories still select/impose too many candidates from hundreds of miles away months before a General.

    I think they could have won half a dozen seats they failed to with an early selection and/or local candidate.

  49. Going back to my post of 9th July where I refer to Myth11’s useful estimate of the 2010 result in Brigg and Scunthorpe boundaries, it does suggest the Tories would have won it by about 8,000 in 2015.
    The majority was about 400 in 1979.

  50. Tata Steel to cut 1,200 jobs here, according to the BBC.

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