Salford & Eccles

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8823 (20.4%)
Labour: 21364 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 1614 (3.7%)
Green: 2251 (5.2%)
UKIP: 7806 (18%)
TUSC: 517 (1.2%)
Others: 886 (2%)
MAJORITY: 12541 (29%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Salford council area.

Main population centres: Salford, Swinton, Pendlebury.

Profile: An inner-city seat in Greater Manchester, sandwiched between the river Irwell and the Manchester Ship canal and pushing right up towards Manchester City Centre itself (the boundary between Manchester and Salford is the river Irwell, or parts of the this seat would undoubted be in Manchester). This is a constituency of decline and redevelopment. The towns of Swinton and Pendlebury in the North were once thriving cotton mill and coal mining towns, the factories that LS Lowry (who lived and worked here, and is now remembered by the huge new Lowry arts complex in the redeveloped docks) were there, but had closed by the 1990s. The old Pendlebury colliery and power station have been partially replaced by a business park and a private prison. Between the wars Salford was home to massively overpopulated back-to-back slums, they were cleared in the 1960s, being replaced by housing estates that by the 1990s had in turn also devolved into slums cursed by unemployment, shootings and gang violence. Since then there has been another round of redevelopment: the vacant rows of terraced houses in Langworthy have been redeveloped for young professionals and the old Salford Docks on the ship canal are the core of the massive Salford Quays redevelopment, which as well as the Lowry Centre includes the new MediaCity which has become the home of BBC`s sport and children`s television departments since 2011.

Politics: Generally a very safe Labour seat, in various guises Salford has consistently returned Labour MPs since 1945, although Hazel Blears` majority fell sharply in 2010 after she became embroiled in the expenses scandal and was targetted by a hostile "Hazel Must Go" campaign. Blears retired in 2015 and was replaced by Rebecca Long Bailey.

Current MP
REBECCA LONG-BAILEY (Labour) Educated at Manchester Metropolitan University#. Former solicitor. First elected as MP for Salford & Eccles in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 8497 (20%)
Lab: 16655 (40%)
LDem: 10930 (26%)
BNP: 2632 (6%)
Oth: 2819 (7%)
MAJ: 5725 (14%)
Con: 3440 (15%)
Lab: 13007 (58%)
LDem: 5062 (22%)
UKIP: 1091 (5%)
MAJ: 7945 (35%)
Con: 3446 (15%)
Lab: 14649 (65%)
LDem: 3637 (16%)
Oth: 782 (3%)
MAJ: 11012 (49%)
Con: 5779 (17%)
Lab: 22848 (69%)
LDem: 3407 (10%)
Oth: 162 (0%)
MAJ: 17069 (52%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Salford

2015 Candidates
GREG DOWNES (Conservative) Born Lancaster. Educated at Oxford University. Church of England minister.
REBECCA LONG-BAILEY (Labour) Educated at Manchester Metropolitan University#. Solicitor.
CHARLIE BRIGGS (Liberal Democrat) Burnley councillor, former Lancashire county councillor.
PAUL DOYLE (UKIP) Former serviceman.
SAM CLARK (Pirate) Educated at Sheffield Hallam University. Technology consultant.
MARK "BEZ" BERRY (Reality) Born 1964, Salford. Dancer and percussionist with the Happy Mondays.
Comments - 167 Responses on “Salford & Eccles”
  1. Not a suprise.
    When a by-election was lost in Kersal ward Rebecca Long Bailey blamed it on local factors. I doubt she will admit it now that antisemitism played a massive part.

  2. I believe Long Bailey is one of the bookies favourites to be next Lab leader. A truly sad indictment of the current state of British politics if ever there was one. She comes across as smug, rather clueless and hostile, all in one squinty, scowling little package.

  3. She is corbyn’s chosen successor I believe. Between her and Laura Pidcock. Rayner is Mcluskey chosen one but not as close to Corbyn.

  4. If you think L-B was bad on radio, you should have seen Dawn Butler on the elections programme in the early hours.

    Now replaced by Diane Abbott!

    I prefer it minus Dimbleby, but we did at least used to have Party reps on such as Simon Hughes who were amateur psephologists.

  5. Dawn Butler was just spouting empty phrases the whole time when I saw her on the overnight coverage. Diane Abbott was her usual stubborn self playing mindless tribal politics by time wasting about calling a general election instead of talking about Brexit.

    The party’s sheer unwillingness to even talk about it in any clear way will cost them dearly.

  6. Through Diane Abbott was much more skeptical of a Brexit Deal with the Tories than many other members of the shadow cabinet. Interesting to see.

  7. Some labour members like myself are starting to think if Boris becomes PM seats like this – wwc but with massive Labour majorities will fall to the Tories.
    And this seat mp is Corbyn’s preferred successor.

  8. We’ve been here before. We all thought it was going to happen in 2017 and it didn’t. The Labour core is a lot stickier than you think, and Boris Johnson isn’t the vote magnet he once was. Just take a deep breath, have a herbal tea, light some scented candles, and chill the hell out. Please.

  9. Labour likely to hold this and if they do likely to be the seat of the leader of the opposition.

  10. Labour source here said only 1 in 10 would say they voting labour in Swinton – 4 in 10 wouldnt say – 5 voting tory. In Pendlebury the postal vote is overwhelmingly rumoured to be very tory. They predict Tory majority of 25-30 as the best Labour can get.
    Also said source thinks Rebecca Long Bailey has fallen out with Corbyn and is firmly behind Mcdonnel alone. Apparently she didn’t react well when asked why she was not at a Corbyn appearance nearby.

  11. I suppose that’s only useful if you know what the postal vote usually is in a borough.

    Postal vote (pre the Blair reforms) used to be Tory, but AFAIK Labour lead the postal vote since it went on demand and not just for the infirm, military and away with work.

    Although I did hear from a friend in Scotland that the Tories were ahead in that in some areas they don’t hold. I think it was Hamilton etc.

  12. Varies by seat.
    Depends if they were ahead in 2017.

  13. Ayrshire was I think the other part where Cons were hopeful ie not just the seat they hold.

    I think they’re fielding an ex-footballer in one.

  14. With Angela Rayner running for deputy this seat is very likely to be the home of the leader of the opposition.

  15. I would say very likely although punter seem to think so. She’s currently odds on.

    But remember that the membership composition might change in the next 3 or 4 months. A number of the NEC have become MPs and the rules and cut off dates etc might be altered and so might give a centrist/remainer a chance of winning.

  16. 2nd word above should read “wouldn’t”.

    Just heard, Leadership meeting is 6/1/2020. Contest will start 7/1/20 and the cut-off date will be 20/1/20

  17. Laying RLB at 1.95 on Betfair imo is good value

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