Salford & Eccles

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8823 (20.4%)
Labour: 21364 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 1614 (3.7%)
Green: 2251 (5.2%)
UKIP: 7806 (18%)
TUSC: 517 (1.2%)
Others: 886 (2%)
MAJORITY: 12541 (29%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Salford council area.

Main population centres: Salford, Swinton, Pendlebury.

Profile: An inner-city seat in Greater Manchester, sandwiched between the river Irwell and the Manchester Ship canal and pushing right up towards Manchester City Centre itself (the boundary between Manchester and Salford is the river Irwell, or parts of the this seat would undoubted be in Manchester). This is a constituency of decline and redevelopment. The towns of Swinton and Pendlebury in the North were once thriving cotton mill and coal mining towns, the factories that LS Lowry (who lived and worked here, and is now remembered by the huge new Lowry arts complex in the redeveloped docks) were there, but had closed by the 1990s. The old Pendlebury colliery and power station have been partially replaced by a business park and a private prison. Between the wars Salford was home to massively overpopulated back-to-back slums, they were cleared in the 1960s, being replaced by housing estates that by the 1990s had in turn also devolved into slums cursed by unemployment, shootings and gang violence. Since then there has been another round of redevelopment: the vacant rows of terraced houses in Langworthy have been redeveloped for young professionals and the old Salford Docks on the ship canal are the core of the massive Salford Quays redevelopment, which as well as the Lowry Centre includes the new MediaCity which has become the home of BBC`s sport and children`s television departments since 2011.

Politics: Generally a very safe Labour seat, in various guises Salford has consistently returned Labour MPs since 1945, although Hazel Blears` majority fell sharply in 2010 after she became embroiled in the expenses scandal and was targetted by a hostile "Hazel Must Go" campaign. Blears retired in 2015 and was replaced by Rebecca Long Bailey.


Current MP
REBECCA LONG-BAILEY (Labour) Educated at Manchester Metropolitan University#. Former solicitor. First elected as MP for Salford & Eccles in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8497 (20%)
Lab: 16655 (40%)
LDem: 10930 (26%)
BNP: 2632 (6%)
Oth: 2819 (7%)
MAJ: 5725 (14%)
2005*
Con: 3440 (15%)
Lab: 13007 (58%)
LDem: 5062 (22%)
UKIP: 1091 (5%)
MAJ: 7945 (35%)
2001
Con: 3446 (15%)
Lab: 14649 (65%)
LDem: 3637 (16%)
Oth: 782 (3%)
MAJ: 11012 (49%)
1997
Con: 5779 (17%)
Lab: 22848 (69%)
LDem: 3407 (10%)
Oth: 162 (0%)
MAJ: 17069 (52%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Salford

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GREG DOWNES (Conservative) Born Lancaster. Educated at Oxford University. Church of England minister.
REBECCA LONG-BAILEY (Labour) Educated at Manchester Metropolitan University#. Solicitor.
CHARLIE BRIGGS (Liberal Democrat) Burnley councillor, former Lancashire county councillor.
PAUL DOYLE (UKIP) Former serviceman.
EMMA VAN DYKE (Green)
SAM CLARK (Pirate) Educated at Sheffield Hallam University. Technology consultant.
MARK "BEZ" BERRY (Reality) Born 1964, Salford. Dancer and percussionist with the Happy Mondays.
NOREEN BAILEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 167 Responses on “Salford & Eccles”
  1. 19% turnout in Weaste by-election. Labour hold. Strong UKIP vote. Looked to be around 25%. Sorry I don’t have the figures to hand. LibDems were 7th of 9 candidates in a seat they almost won in 2010.

  2. You might have said ‘in a seat they almost held in 2010’. Up until that point the LDs held all three seats in this ward

  3. I love Hazel Blears!!

  4. Will UKIP be disappointed at not winning the seat?

  5. Labour 785 (44.4%)
    UKIP 401 (22.7%)
    Con 260 (14.7%)
    Green 80
    BNP 74
    Ind 64
    LD 58
    TUSC 30
    Ind 15

    Turnout: 19.9%

  6. Does anyone know what happened to the Tory PPC here? He was an unusual, jolly Alan Carr type candidate (and no, I’m not being homophobic). He was listed as standing in the locals in Lancaster, Wigan, Liverpool, Manchester and Trafford most recently.

  7. I can’t stand Blears, but she managed to survive 2010 so will probably see her majority go back up in 2015. It’s one of those times where the MP is actually a local to the constituency from an ordinary background, but her record in government was one of appalling sycophancy that it possibly managed to turn off a lot of Salfordians.

  8. Lancs, do you mean Matthew Sephton? Last I heard of him he stood as Tory candidate in the M/cr Central by-election about a year ago.

  9. Neil, as someone who lives in the neighbouring constituency, I can confirm that Blears is pretty unpopular here. Having survived the expenses scandal amongst other things in 2010, she is set fair to remain MP here for just about as long as she wants. This seat is effectively the borough of Salford with a bit of Eccles tacked on the edge. I am pretty sure its been Labour for 70+ years.

  10. By-election in the Weaste & Seedley ward tonight. LAB HOLD.

    Lab 803
    UKIP 280
    Con 240
    Ind 96
    Green 42
    BNP 29
    Socialist 21.

    No LD candidate I believe. Also this same ward had a by-election in June and the LD candidate polled 58 votes! Startling really considering that this ward has been a Lab/LD marginal during the 2000s and was a LD seat in consecutive local elections from 2004 to 2009 before Lab regained in 2010. The LD vote has seriously collapsed up here!

  11. Nigel Farage was filmed campaigning in this by-election. There was also a by-election in Manchester last night in which UKIP were (a distant) second.

  12. I cant say I bumped into him…nor the posse of cameras that would follow him!

  13. My 2015 forecast here:

    Lab 49
    UKIP 17
    Con 17
    LD 11
    Others 6

  14. Labour will do better than that, I think they will go back over 50%. The Liberal Democrats will have a hard night here, perhaps falling back to their 1997 vote share.
    UKIP may well do okay as the ‘anti-politics’ party and I would not be surprised to see them pip the Tories for second place.

  15. I don’t agree that Blears is unpopular. I don’t actually like her uber-Blairite stances but she’s a very good constituency MP. I have friends here and they both vouch that she’s responsive and quite willing to challenge the powers that be.

  16. I’m sure she does provide a good service for her constituents in that sense Mike, however I live close by and the expenses issue (and the way she tried to wriggle out of any wrongdoing) does not play well up here [hence the 18% drop in vote in 2010] However she seems to have ridden that storm and should be returned with a thumping majority.. Lab53, Con 20, LD10, UKIP12. UKIP not as strong here as in many parts. I hardly recall seeing a UKIP poster or a UKIP leaflet being pushed through my letterbox…

  17. Bill Cash’s daughter Laetitia contested the Salford seat in 2005 for the Conservatives.

  18. Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV · 10m

    BREAKING: Granada Reports can confirm Hazel Blears is to stand down as an MP at the next General Election.Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV · 10m

  19. There’s a resignation I won’t be losing any sleep over.

  20. I’m in two minds. She’s a local, not a former SPAD, and is a superb constituency MP. However her expenses violations were pretty unforgivable.

  21. 69% to 40% takes some doing…

  22. Bob will be weeping. I shan’t be.

  23. “69% to 40% takes some doing…”

    An expenses row does that. Had the seat been a marginal like Redditch (where the then-MP was also caught up in one as well) there’s a great chance it might have fallen to an opponent.

  24. HH is right about her constituency work – she helped sort an issue for a friend of mine.

    Given that getting Balls and Blears was such a high profile aim, and that the LD’s were undergoing a localised revival which has utterly collapsed, it wasn’t such a surprising result.

    I honestly don’t care about the expenses. I do care about the way she destabilised the party.

    A nice safe seat for someone I think….maybe Rosa Battle will finally get a chance?

  25. Ah yes, I’d forgotten about her Rocking the Boat badge.

  26. Ted Knight – you’ve been rehabilitated.

  27. Not sure what the relevance is, but I understand Ted Knight is still alive and still as unreconstructed as ever, although he must be in his 80s now.

  28. Bez has said he’s considering contesting Salford at the General Election.

  29. I find that hard to believe, Lancs Observer, as Ted Knight is indeed 80 going on 81 and in any case was active in Lambeth, London, a long way from Salford! I wonder what he is doing these days…

  30. From this report it sounds like Bez does intend to stand, rather than just “considering” it:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-26601873

  31. Lotus White apparently believes Bez and Ted Knight are the same person…..can I have a puff of what he’s smoking?

    Much as it would have been fun to see Ted Knight in the Happy Mondays.

  32. Bez looked quite ill on NW News. Incoherent, toothless and sadly his brain/memory must be damaged by drugs.

  33. To H. Hemmelig regarding that mistaken post of mine (unfortunately you cannot delete your own posts on this site for some reason) -that was just a slight bit of confusion there when I was not concentrating properly. I do not smoke any substance,by the way.

  34. Perhaps you are too young to remember the Happy Mondays? Bez hasn’t been a household name since about 1990, and as Lancs says he looks a bit worse for wear.

  35. Surely you’re forgetting that he was the winner of the 2005 Celebrity Big Brother

  36. Oh yes how could I forget that.

  37. Was that the series before or after Jade Goody won it? LOL

  38. Hazel Blears is positive with a sense of humour though, and does seem to be more in tune with swing voters, bar the 2009-10 position. Quite different from a stone faced islington type.

  39. How many swing voters would go Labour in a general election if Hazel Blears was the party leader? Just being a Blairite doesn’t mean someone can be the man himself.

  40. Johnson could have been a good post-Blairite leader (pun intended).

    Blears was one of the better Labour ministers IMO.

  41. Johnson is still Blairite & his views are not favoured that widely any more on certain issues. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a late retirement in 2015.

  42. Blears was one of the better Labour Ministers – agree.

    Johnson – I’m sorry I just cannot say the same after Staffs, even on the sofa chat show.

  43. This seat has something in common with another seat. What is it?

  44. 3 former Salford LibDem Cllrs have defected to stand for UKIP. They admit it’s a better chance of being elected! 2 of them joined the Greens after the LibDems. Joe O’Neill faces a Labour Cllr who himself defected (from the Tories) after losing his seat.

  45. I don’t think it’s totally impossible for Bez to do quite well here.
    https://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/is-bez-going-to-be-the-next-mp-for-salford/

  46. Salford & Eccles Labour selection. 7 applications according to Manchester Evening News:

    Rebecca Long Bailey (solicitor, suppored by Unite and Ian Stewart, finished third in Weaver Vale selection last year)
    Sarah Brookes (secretary of Langworthy ward branch)
    Sara Hyde (party activist now based in London)
    Sophie Taylor (Trafford Cllr, shortlisted for Wythenshawe)
    Angela Pober (Camden Cllr)
    Sue Pugh (Cllr, wife of NEC member Peter Wheeler, chair of NW Labour regional board, finished 4th in Weaver Vale selection)
    Jacqueline Robinson (shortlisted for Ellesmere Port & Neston last month)

  47. Sophie Taylor is an NHS physiotherapist and lectures for MMU. Seems well qualified. Hope one of the locals wins it.

  48. I’d imagine an endorsement from the Mayor of Salford could be a feather in the cap of a would-be candidate. Something for the CLP to consider, alongside what she’s like at the final hustings?

    The Unite support risks being savaged by Guido Fawkes, etc if Rebecca Bailey Long is selected.

  49. LAB 44
    LD 17
    CON 17
    UKIP 14
    GRN 4
    OTH 4

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