Salford & Eccles

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8823 (20.4%)
Labour: 21364 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 1614 (3.7%)
Green: 2251 (5.2%)
UKIP: 7806 (18%)
TUSC: 517 (1.2%)
Others: 886 (2%)
MAJORITY: 12541 (29%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Salford council area.

Main population centres: Salford, Swinton, Pendlebury.

Profile: An inner-city seat in Greater Manchester, sandwiched between the river Irwell and the Manchester Ship canal and pushing right up towards Manchester City Centre itself (the boundary between Manchester and Salford is the river Irwell, or parts of the this seat would undoubted be in Manchester). This is a constituency of decline and redevelopment. The towns of Swinton and Pendlebury in the North were once thriving cotton mill and coal mining towns, the factories that LS Lowry (who lived and worked here, and is now remembered by the huge new Lowry arts complex in the redeveloped docks) were there, but had closed by the 1990s. The old Pendlebury colliery and power station have been partially replaced by a business park and a private prison. Between the wars Salford was home to massively overpopulated back-to-back slums, they were cleared in the 1960s, being replaced by housing estates that by the 1990s had in turn also devolved into slums cursed by unemployment, shootings and gang violence. Since then there has been another round of redevelopment: the vacant rows of terraced houses in Langworthy have been redeveloped for young professionals and the old Salford Docks on the ship canal are the core of the massive Salford Quays redevelopment, which as well as the Lowry Centre includes the new MediaCity which has become the home of BBC`s sport and children`s television departments since 2011.

Politics: Generally a very safe Labour seat, in various guises Salford has consistently returned Labour MPs since 1945, although Hazel Blears` majority fell sharply in 2010 after she became embroiled in the expenses scandal and was targetted by a hostile "Hazel Must Go" campaign. Blears retired in 2015 and was replaced by Rebecca Long Bailey.


Current MP
REBECCA LONG-BAILEY (Labour) Educated at Manchester Metropolitan University#. Former solicitor. First elected as MP for Salford & Eccles in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8497 (20%)
Lab: 16655 (40%)
LDem: 10930 (26%)
BNP: 2632 (6%)
Oth: 2819 (7%)
MAJ: 5725 (14%)
2005*
Con: 3440 (15%)
Lab: 13007 (58%)
LDem: 5062 (22%)
UKIP: 1091 (5%)
MAJ: 7945 (35%)
2001
Con: 3446 (15%)
Lab: 14649 (65%)
LDem: 3637 (16%)
Oth: 782 (3%)
MAJ: 11012 (49%)
1997
Con: 5779 (17%)
Lab: 22848 (69%)
LDem: 3407 (10%)
Oth: 162 (0%)
MAJ: 17069 (52%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Salford

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GREG DOWNES (Conservative) Born Lancaster. Educated at Oxford University. Church of England minister.
REBECCA LONG-BAILEY (Labour) Educated at Manchester Metropolitan University#. Solicitor.
CHARLIE BRIGGS (Liberal Democrat) Burnley councillor, former Lancashire county councillor.
PAUL DOYLE (UKIP) Former serviceman.
EMMA VAN DYKE (Green)
SAM CLARK (Pirate) Educated at Sheffield Hallam University. Technology consultant.
MARK "BEZ" BERRY (Reality) Born 1964, Salford. Dancer and percussionist with the Happy Mondays.
NOREEN BAILEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 180 Responses on “Salford & Eccles”
  1. Not a suprise.
    When a by-election was lost in Kersal ward Rebecca Long Bailey blamed it on local factors. I doubt she will admit it now that antisemitism played a massive part.

  2. I believe Long Bailey is one of the bookies favourites to be next Lab leader. A truly sad indictment of the current state of British politics if ever there was one. She comes across as smug, rather clueless and hostile, all in one squinty, scowling little package.

  3. She is corbyn’s chosen successor I believe. Between her and Laura Pidcock. Rayner is Mcluskey chosen one but not as close to Corbyn.

  4. If you think L-B was bad on radio, you should have seen Dawn Butler on the elections programme in the early hours.

    Now replaced by Diane Abbott!

    I prefer it minus Dimbleby, but we did at least used to have Party reps on such as Simon Hughes who were amateur psephologists.

  5. Dawn Butler was just spouting empty phrases the whole time when I saw her on the overnight coverage. Diane Abbott was her usual stubborn self playing mindless tribal politics by time wasting about calling a general election instead of talking about Brexit.

    The party’s sheer unwillingness to even talk about it in any clear way will cost them dearly.

  6. Through Diane Abbott was much more skeptical of a Brexit Deal with the Tories than many other members of the shadow cabinet. Interesting to see.

  7. Some labour members like myself are starting to think if Boris becomes PM seats like this – wwc but with massive Labour majorities will fall to the Tories.
    And this seat mp is Corbyn’s preferred successor.

  8. We’ve been here before. We all thought it was going to happen in 2017 and it didn’t. The Labour core is a lot stickier than you think, and Boris Johnson isn’t the vote magnet he once was. Just take a deep breath, have a herbal tea, light some scented candles, and chill the hell out. Please.

  9. Labour likely to hold this and if they do likely to be the seat of the leader of the opposition.

  10. Labour source here said only 1 in 10 would say they voting labour in Swinton – 4 in 10 wouldnt say – 5 voting tory. In Pendlebury the postal vote is overwhelmingly rumoured to be very tory. They predict Tory majority of 25-30 as the best Labour can get.
    Also said source thinks Rebecca Long Bailey has fallen out with Corbyn and is firmly behind Mcdonnel alone. Apparently she didn’t react well when asked why she was not at a Corbyn appearance nearby.

  11. I suppose that’s only useful if you know what the postal vote usually is in a borough.

    Postal vote (pre the Blair reforms) used to be Tory, but AFAIK Labour lead the postal vote since it went on demand and not just for the infirm, military and away with work.

    Although I did hear from a friend in Scotland that the Tories were ahead in that in some areas they don’t hold. I think it was Hamilton etc.

  12. Varies by seat.
    Depends if they were ahead in 2017.

  13. Ayrshire was I think the other part where Cons were hopeful ie not just the seat they hold.

    I think they’re fielding an ex-footballer in one.

  14. With Angela Rayner running for deputy this seat is very likely to be the home of the leader of the opposition.

  15. I would say very likely although punter seem to think so. She’s currently odds on.

    But remember that the membership composition might change in the next 3 or 4 months. A number of the NEC have become MPs and the rules and cut off dates etc might be altered and so might give a centrist/remainer a chance of winning.

  16. 2nd word above should read “wouldn’t”.

    Just heard, Leadership meeting is 6/1/2020. Contest will start 7/1/20 and the cut-off date will be 20/1/20

  17. Laying RLB at 1.95 on Betfair imo is good value

  18. Wrong Daily sacked for endorsing Maxine Peake’s anti-Semitic comments.

    Long Bailey denies that she endorsed it.

  19. Don’t think Starmer had much choice. Long Bailey is no asset to Labour anyway so imagine senior people within the party are pretty glad to be rid of her. She’s been seriously pushed and over promoted on the basis of doing virtually nothing. Bye bye chuck.

  20. Just as I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Boris Johnson’s new agreeable temperament as PM, I also think Starmer has started well in his new role too. As I thought at the time, he’s not the socialist he claimed to be when running for the leadership and seems determined to return Labour to the centre ground – the only position they can win an election from

  21. Given Starmers office saw RLB tweet before it was posted why waa she sacked after it was posted

  22. V tough by Leader, savage almost. But entirely expected. And if thousands of Corbynites leave the party I’m certain the new Leadership will not be unhappy by this.

    There’ll be more Corbyn statue toppling before long Red lines for Lefties being crossed notably on Pal/Israel. I think it may soon come to a CLP being suspended for allowing a local pro Pal / anti Israel govt motion in the CLP meeting.

  23. I’m not leaving

    What strikes me as strange is unlike this there have been issues raised by the Campaign Against Anti semitism, Labour Against Anti semitism and Board of Deputies around some of the other Labour MPs sharing platforms with expelled members like Jackie Walker and Tony Greenstein. Starmer accepted their apologies but these groups critised Starmer for not doing enough there.

    Maxine Peake is still a Labour member, the interview in the Independent was edited because of these very concerns, RLBs post was run by Starmers office and yet it’s RLB whose punished and not the MPs who shared a platform with Tony Greenstein and Jackie Walker

  24. Can’t help but feeling that RBL’s sacking was largely about optics. Starmer has to demonstrate that zero tolerance means exactly that. Pour encourager les autres.

    Politically, it was the right thing to do. Morally? I’m not so sure…

  25. It appears Starmers attempt to demonstrate zero tolerance of anti semitism has increased the pressure on him by CAA to do something about these Labour MPs after he agreed to meet with them concerning RLB sacking. Initially he wasn’t going to meet with them but changed his mind

  26. The best thing to come out of this is it has showed air-headed “celebrities” that there are consequences to writing or tweeting controversial statements that you know absolutely nothing about. The days of “your celebrity profile will benefit from putting you name to anything as long as it’s Corbynite enough” are happily coming to an end. Apparently Maxine Peake, whose glittering TV career “peaked” 20 odd years ago when she played a dinnerlady in support of Victoria Wood, has received far more criticism than praise for this, certainly I doubt she expected that.

  27. That’s pretty harsh. She’s most well known for recent crime drama Silk.

    The irony is her interview largely argued that people should back Starmer and the Independent cited line about police restraint from a 2016 article by AmnestyUSA which Amnesty have since denied but you can still find the article online

  28. Perfectly fine for us to debate police restraint techniques, though what qualifies a mid-ranking actress to know any more about that than you or me is a bit of a mystery. I wouldn’t feel confident to speak in a national newspaper interview about anything other than my professional expertise…why do celebrities think they know so much about everything that they can lecture us all about it?

    As you well know, the controversial bit was associating the topic with Israel, for no apparent reason other than that sections of the left want to blame Israel for everything. The idea that the US police forces, with two hundred years’ experience policing segregation and the biggest policing resources in the world, need or would accept lessons from Israel on this kind of thing is absolutely barking mad.

  29. Having read the interview i understand the point Maxine Peake was making was that the restraint techniques that have led to the death of a black man wasn’t limited to the US and there is evidence that it’s international. I get why people could not understand why this was her example when there are plenty other examples.

    Yes there are very few topics I could confidently say I know enough about to give a good analysis of and perhaps we should be more like you, sometimes caution is wise when discussing something publicly you don’t know a great deal about. Certainly I hadn’t read the 2016 AmnestyUSA article until today and didn’t even know it existed until RLB was sacked.

    On the flip side in one sense Maxine Peake now knows she was ill informed on conflating the knee on neck as policing techniques used in Israel. Had this never happened she may have continued to believe this was the case

  30. “I get why people could not understand why this was her example when there are plenty other examples.”

    Indeed, plenty of those other examples are in countries where most of the police are black, eg South Africa. Not advisable to mess with the SA police if you want to stay alive, black or white.

    I agree with your last sentence, that’s kind of what I was getting at.

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