Rother Valley
2015 Result:
Conservative: 10945 (23.3%)
Labour: 20501 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 1992 (4.2%)
UKIP: 13204 (28.1%)
Others: 377 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7297 (15.5%)
Category: Safe Labour seat
Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Rotherham council area.
Main population centres: Dinnington, Maltby, Thurcroft, Wales, Wickersley.
Profile: The southernmost seat in South Yorkshire, to the south of Rotherham itself. The seat is situated in the South Yorkshire coalfield and is mostly made up of small former pit town and villages that grew up with the expansion of coal mining, and which have fallen into decline with its passing. Maltby has the only remaining coal mine in the area, the Maltby Main Colliery.
Politics: Like most coal mining communities this is a solid, safe Labour seat. While the majority has fallen below ten thousand in bad years for Labour, it has been held by the party continuously since its creation in 1918.
| Con: | 13281 (28%) |
| Lab: | 19147 (41%) |
| LDem: | 8111 (17%) |
| BNP: | 3606 (8%) |
| Oth: | 2613 (6%) |
| MAJ: | 5866 (13%) |
| Con: | 7647 (19%) |
| Lab: | 21871 (55%) |
| LDem: | 6272 (16%) |
| BNP: | 2020 (5%) |
| Oth: | 1685 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 14224 (36%) |
| Con: | 7969 (22%) |
| Lab: | 22851 (62%) |
| LDem: | 4603 (13%) |
| UKIP: | 1380 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 14882 (40%) |
| Con: | 7699 (17%) |
| Lab: | 31184 (68%) |
| LDem: | 5342 (12%) |
| MAJ: | 23485 (51%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
Plopwellian Tory,
You might find this article might be of assistance.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
If UKIP are losing about a quarter to a third of their support to the Conservatives, they are unlikely to remain competitive anywhere much.
Of course the squeeze is likely to be greater in Labour/Conservative marginals (or those perceived to be close) and if UKIP runs a weak campaign.
Again it was another Southern Tory PPC parachuted in at the last minute, so no surprise.
What makes it worse is that 5 of the seats where this happened in Jan – March 2015 were winnable (if they’d selected in 2013 or 2014) including Hyndburn and Southport.
The new boundaries would give Kevin Barron a sigh of relief, as they’re quite favourable.
Stat of the day from this article – 48 of 49 council areas with coalfields voted for Brexit.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/10/tories-must-break-dogma-attract-young
I’m tearing my hair out trying to work out what the odd one out is.
HP – I’d imagine he’ll be retiring.
and we have no idea what the boundaries are likely to be like anyway, it’s pure guesswork.
Polltroll
I’m not sure how the NS defines those 49 areas but there were certainly mines in both Leeds and Rushcliffe.
Yes… the Leeds coalfields cut into various parts of the city, in Alec Shelbrooke’s seat and also Morley & Outwood.
Of course the result wasn’t seat based, Elmet & Rothwell I’ve no idea about but Morley & Outwood was clearly for leave, 60%+ from what I saw.
Leeds voted remain by less than 1% but I would be surprised if more than 2 constituencies voted that way.
I’d expect Leeds C, Leeds NW and Leeds NE all voted Remain.
Not sure about the others.
As Richard says, the odd one out is almost certainly Rushcliffe, where Cotgrave colliery lasted into the 80s/90s.
If we’re looking further back some coal mining might have come within the boundaries of councils such as Bath & NE Somerset and Canterbury, in addition to Leeds as Richard mentions.
Canterbury council voted Leave though I think the Kent pits were in Dover and possibly Thanet.
There might have been a pit in maybe Mendip or Stroud in the 1950s.
Forgot Canterbury voted leave. Yes the mining in Kent was mostly in Dover and South Thanet though Canterbury council area is surprisingly large.
There are a couple of very near misses including Rutland, which was 50-50 though Leave won by a whisker (Asfordby colliery there was the last deep mine opened in the UK).
Also plenty of coalfields in Scotland voted Remain as perhaps did a few in Wales. Ironically the largest area of current coal production in the UK voted Remain (Ayrshire).
Constituency estimates show Canterbury constituency, as opposed to district, voted Remain – I think it’s Herne Bay which accounts for the difference.
No mines in Stroud. The mines in Somerset were in what is now Mogg’s seat.
Sir Kevin Barron has announced he is backing May’s Deal.
Another one who could be whipless by the end of the week as their are rumors and pressure such action is going to happen