Rotherham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 4656 (12.3%)
Labour: 19860 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 1093 (2.9%)
BNP: 225 (0.6%)
UKIP: 11414 (30.2%)
TUSC: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8446 (22.3%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, South Yorkshire. Part of the Rotherham council area.

Main population centres: Rotherham.

Profile: A gritty working class, industrial town to the north-east of Sheffield. Historically Rotherham was a steel making town and it remains a major part of the economy, though the drop in demand for steel for cars in the economic downturn has put pressure on the local industry. Other local factory closures, such the Burburry clothing factory and Hovis`s flour milling factory have had further negative effects on employment. The town centre of Rotherham has suffered from its proximity to Sheffield and the Meadowhall shopping centre, though has undergone major redevelopment over the last decade.

Politics: An extremely safe Labour seat, held by the party since 1933. The seat has had no fewer than four by-elections since the second world war, the most of any seat in Great Britain (though beaten by Mid Ulster`s five). The most recent was caused by the resignation of Denis MacShane, the the victor of the 1994 by-election, who stepped down after being censured by the Standards and Privileges Committee for making expenses claims intended to deceive. The subsequent by-election was easily held by Labour, but saw a strong performance by UKIP, who came second, and the BNP who came third.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in LAB HOLD. For full details see here.


Current MP
SARAH CHAMPION (Labour) Born 1969. Educated at Sheffield University. Former chief executive of a childrens hospice. First elected as MP for Rotherham in 2012 by-election.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6279 (17%)
Lab: 16741 (45%)
LDem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10%)
Oth: 4586 (12%)
MAJ: 10462 (28%)
2005*
Con: 4966 (17%)
Lab: 15840 (53%)
LDem: 5159 (17%)
BNP: 1986 (7%)
Oth: 2027 (7%)
MAJ: 10681 (36%)
2001
Con: 5682 (19%)
Lab: 18759 (64%)
LDem: 3117 (11%)
UKIP: 730 (2%)
Oth: 1066 (4%)
MAJ: 13077 (45%)
1997
Con: 5383 (14%)
Lab: 26852 (71%)
LDem: 3919 (10%)
Oth: 364 (1%)
MAJ: 21469 (57%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SEB LOWE (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University.
SARAH CHAMPION (Labour) See above.
JANICE MIDDLETON (Liberal Democrat) Headteacher.
JANE COLLINS (UKIP) Born 1962. Contested Scunthorpe 2010, Barnsley Central 2011 by-election, Rotherham 2012 by-election. MEP for Yorkshire since 2014.
DEAN WALKER (English Democrat)
ADAM WALKER (BNP) Former teacher, banned from teaching for life in 2013 after a conviction for dangerous driving. Contested Bishop Auckland 2010. Contested North East region 2009 European election, Yorkshire 2014 election.
PAT MCLAUGHLIN (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 320 Responses on “Rotherham”
  1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVKXneNMvho

    Looks like Britain first have built up very large support in Rotherham.

  2. UKIP: at Ladbrokes. ..
    Dudley North…4/1….20% chance
    Rotherham……9/4….31%
    Grt Grimsby….7/4… 36%

    If we believe that bookies do their homework & their opinions (through their advertised odds) are often correct – then those odds/% chances above, to me, are very surprising and should be shocking to any LAB activist.

  3. The Conservative candidate is Seb Lowe.

  4. Lol you joking britian first are a pariah – their 60 votes in Rochester by-election shows people have no appetite for them

  5. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/13/labour-mps-sue-ukip-mep-jane-collins-rotherham-child-sex-claims

    “Rotherham’s three Labour MPs are taking legal action against the UK Independence party MEP Jane Collins for saying that they knew about widespread child sex abuse in the city.”

    “The three MPs are also bringing libel proceedings against a Ukip councillor in Rotherham, Caven Vines, for remarks he made in an interview to Sky News on 5 January.”

  6. What a stupid thing to do. That will only help UKIP, by enabling them to portray themselves as being victimised, and with all the dirty linen that is going to have to come out in court about the case.

    You would have thought MPs would have learned from Archer, Aitken, Mitchell, and all their other colleagues who have been ruined in the libel court.

  7. @H.Hemmelig

    Watch from around the 10min mark, they have more than a leg to stand on in taking legal action. If UKIP members have no qualms in calling the police on you if you fact-check their statements, they really shouldn’t squeal if they get sued for making (hitherto) unfounded statements in front of TV cameras.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtQDp7YzZj4

  8. I’d be surprised if any members of the Labour hierarchy did actually know that anything was/is going on, and certainly not to the extent that it was, however, it must surely raise questions about their competence and how in-touch they are with what’s going on around them (not just the candidates, but the extended party machine in the town).
    If such questions aren’t asked, it speaks volumes about the tribal nature of Northern English politics.

  9. Labour could have really done without today’s news.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750

  10. (PS – I know it’s council and not Westminster, but the timing could not be much worse for them)

  11. Sarah Champion’s vigorous denunciation of those who needed to be denounced should help her to withstand much of the UKIP effort.

  12. Yeah it will help massively through UKIP will have a good slogan to use.
    ‘Champion is a champion of rape’ even if its extremely inaccurate. Labour can use her surname as well as positive slogan through. It may still have an effect through as you said to me elsewhere the polls in November showed no real threat of seat being lost.

  13. I was surprised the BBC said the entire Cabinet had “resigned.” They have been removed due to negligence and the National Crime Agency are also investigating criminality.

  14. Technically they have resigned through rather than been dismissed. They published a statement of resignation Official proceedings to remove cabinet officials take some time( otherwise Tower Hamlets council would be gone now)

  15. Well they showed the media a letter just before Pickles announced Commissioners were being sent in to run the Council until May 2016. ITV News was accurate.

  16. http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-02-04/rotherham-abuse-council-leader-and-cabinet-to-resign-after-damning-report. This is from ITV and said they resigned.
    Pickles spoke in the commons saying he would like that they resigned and arranged the commissioners to take over.

  17. I only saw the Regional News on ITV.

  18. From an article I read on the MP here she says she will stand down after two terms, presumably 2020. Therefore if she does then could it be a potential UKIP gain in 2020 If they still exist or have had a BNP still collapse.
    I cant see her losing to UKIP after I’ve read about her as it seems she is willing to denounce the council and the police Heavily critical of the leader who resigned last week for example. Having only been a Labour member since 2010 and MP since 2012 she wont have be able to be accused of being involved in the any cover-ups.

  19. She through does think she can lose through. UKIP may take the majority of the council seats up for election in May and be the party in control after the commissioners leave next year through if Labour win the seat then there is not likely to be much split ticket voting here.

  20. Remember that Rotherham constituency is not the same as Rotherham borough. The borough also includes Rother Valley and Wentworth, where the Asian population is much lower. Most of the borough’s Asian population is concentrated in Rotherham town itself which will give Labour a strong vote no matter how bad the scandal gets, as indeed we saw in the by-election here.

  21. The Asian community is only 9% even in this seat so at most would make up 11-15% voters there. Not nowhere near enough to secure the seat for Labour.
    What by-election do you mean. The 2012 one where the scandal had not really started or the PPC election with a very low turnout through Labour did do well in it( A much higher turnout among the Asian community and other’s fundamentally opposed to UKIP may have occurred because of the perceived threat of UKIP winning it. That advantage may be cancelled out in a general through UKIP inclined voters are still not as likely to vote as others in this seat I suspect)

  22. “The Asian community is only 9% even in this seat so at most would make up 11-15% voters there. Not nowhere near enough to secure the seat for Labour.”

    That’s not what I said….I said it would give Labour a strong vote, which given that Labour will always get some WWC votes no matter what, is undeniable.

    I happen to think it’s unlikely UKIP will win Rotherham, though they’ll undoubtedly do quite well, and indeed they are perhaps more likely to do better in the whiter Rother Valley seat.

  23. If the UKIP candidate is worth their salt they’ll have a field day with that.

  24. Should be a fairly safe Labour hold, no doubt UKIP will have a field day with the poppy wreath claim, but Champion has done plenty to stand against child abuse and indifference to it. This seat also has slightly less UKIP potential than the other Rotherham seats. I predict Champion will take at least 40% of the vote, with at least a 5% majority over UKIP, and others not featuring strongly.

  25. Is this the only seat with a BNP candidate at this election?

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/2006/statement_of_person_nominated_and_notice_of_poll_-_rotherham_constituency

    Also, seven candidates, none with a local address(!)

  26. No, there are a few others (e.g. Boston & Skegness), not many though.

  27. Also Braintree has one.

  28. Labour Hold. 8,000 majority. UKIP 2nd.

  29. I think there are 8 BNP Candidates, plus a few former members standing for the English Democrats and one as an Indy. The BNP had their minority Party slot on the BBC Daily Politics today.

    There’s a record number of over 300 Independent candidates standing at this GE.

  30. Labour hold…reduced majority despite BNP and ED taking both Labour and UKIP votes…

    UKIP should gain Council seats here though…

  31. Comfortable Labour hold with UKIP 2nd sounds about right. Sarah Champion’s distance from and campaigning on the CSA scandal will help her.

    I actually think Rother Valley is a better long-term (and even short-term) prospect for UKIP than Rotherham itself. I expect UKIP to hit about 25-30% here, but for them to get 30-35% in Rother Valley.

  32. Suppose Jeremy Corbyn splits the Labour vote down the middle, and half the voters leaving Labour go to UKIP. This would put Labour here on 26% and UKIP on 43%, an easy UKIP win. A personal vote for Sarah Champion would be unlikely to be sufficient to overcome such a swing.

    Ideal4Radio is right. The first priority for UKIP is to build up its base of councillors, making sure to pick people who will be sound on a very fraught council. UKIP probably needs a national organiser behind the scenes in this seat will will lead with tight discipline.

    UkIP candidates, including council candidates, need to be more tightly vetted than they were between 2010 and 2015. And there is no need any more for UKIP to accept recent entrants to the party as candidates.

  33. Richard Body stood here in 1950; he must now be one of the very few candidates from 1950 still living. I wonder who the others are? So far as I am aware, nobody who has been an MP stood in 1950, and Jeremy Hutchinson, who stood in 1945, didn’t stand in 1950.

  34. Sarah Champion has unresigned from her post as Shadow Home Office minister. Not sure why – whether she’s changed her mind on Corbyn (I doubt that) or just on the merits of resigning. There are several frontbenchers openly supporting Smith so it doesn’t seem to be a bar to serving.

  35. I dont think she was ever that opposed to Corbyn. She hasnt endoresed smith. I suspect she will soon endorse Corbyn through.

  36. Jack
    Its quite obvious really, it was about shock and awe, big numbers of resignations to make JC’s position seem untenable and hopefully get him to resign, when it became apparent that he wasn’t going to and all the resignations did is shut down the functioning of the opposition many more pragmatic MP’s will have come to the conclusion that sitting on the backbenches sulking is pointless, they might as well do their jobs.

  37. If this is the prelude to another round of MPs agreeing to try and make it work if Corbyn wins again in September I think that would be a bad mistake on the part of the PLP. Most likely it would lead to the same outcome again within a few months. They tried to make it work and saw it couldn’t work.

  38. She confirms to me a split is coming. Those who can tolerate Corbyn staying and mostly serviing. Those opposing Corbyn publically at the moment more likely or not leaving.

  39. Especially as a source tells me the NEC elections are virtually game over and will be full victory for the momentum slate.

  40. BM11
    Considering the deadline to vote in the NEC elections hasn’t passed yet and votes cannot be pre determined until after the deadline the source claiming to know the outcome of the NEC elections is pretty dodgy.

  41. The £3 rule and OMOV (the latter rather ironically) will go down as two of the most fatal mistakes Labour made in its history if a split happens. The speed at which they called the leadership election last year was such bad timing. Should’ve let things settle and kept an interim shadow cabinet on for longer.

  42. Well they dont know the outcome but from canvassing and also the candidates own beliefs in the result’s most in the know think it will be a the momentum backed full house.

  43. I must say, Sarah Champion is one of the last people I would expect to be fiddling her expenses.

  44. Considering what south Yorkshire Labour is willing to turn a blind eye to I’d say a little creative accounting would be pretty timid.

  45. Sarah Champion MP has admitted assaulting her husband.

    She was arrested and received a caution, according to the Huffington Post.

    Corbyn has asked her to continue as Shadow Minister for the Prevention of Domestic Violence.

    Although the details may prove more damaging here: they were arguing over the sale of their £500k Derbyshire pad, when she took a watercolour off the wall and hit him with the frame!

  46. My first reaction was to laugh but if it were the other way round Mr Champion certainly wouldn’t have been let off with a caution nor would he be able to continue as “shadow minister for the prevention of domestic violence”.

  47. Sarah Champion was promoted to shadow minister for women and equalities

  48. . . . advising women how best to beat up their husbands / employers and get away with it, no doubt.

  49. Corbyn better not get her angry in a shadow cabinet meeting, he’ll end up with a painting smashed over his head.

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