Rochester and Strood by-election

Caused by the resignation of Mark Reckless, following his defection from the Conservative party to UKIP on the 27th October 2014 at the UKIP party conference.

Result
Candidates
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Mark Reckless (UKIP) Born 1970. Educated at Oxford University. Former barrister and banker. Medway councillor 2007-2011 for the Conservatives. Contested Medway 2001, 2005 for the Conservatives. Conserative MP for Rochester and Strood 2010-2014, defected to UKIP in 2014 and resigned to fight a by-election.
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Kelly Tolhurst (Conservative) Businesswoman and marine surveyor. Medway councillor since 2011
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Naushabah Khan (Labour) Educated at Fort Pitt Grammar and Birmingham University. PR consultant.
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Clive Gregory (Green) Musician
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Geoff Juby (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954. Educated at East Dereham Boys School. Caterer. Former Gillingham councillor and Medway councillor since 1997. Contested Medway in 2001, 2005, Rochester and Strood 2010
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Jayda Fransen (Britain First) Contested Scotland in 2014 European elections
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Dave Osborn (Patriotic Socialist) Born Huddersfield
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Nick Long (People before Profit) Housing officer
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Hairy Knorm Davidson (Loony) Woodsman and log supplier. Contested Faversham and Mid Kent 2010
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Mike Barker (Independent) Bomb disposal scientist. Awarded the MBE in 1972 for gallantry. Received a suspended prison sentence in 2008 for making threats to kill, imprisoned in 2010 for non-payment of council tax
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Christopher Challis (Independent) Born Medway. Educated at Rochester Math School and Cambridge University. Chartered accountant
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Stephen Goldsbrough (Independent) Lay preacher
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Charlotte Rose (Independent) Sex worker and sexual trainer. Contested Clacton by-election 2014
Comments - 1,059 Responses on “Rochester by-election”
  1. “I don’t think that’s an apt comparison – Beaconsfield is a far wealthier constituency than Wyhtenshawe is a poor one”

    I think it’s a reasonable analogy if not an apt comparison.

    “UKIP managed 27% of the vote in the 2013 council elections”

    Yes – relative percentages – good but not as good as they did in more middling areas.

  2. The government’s failure on immigration, again highlighted by today’s figures, is an issue that will damage their support along a very broad part of the income distribution.

  3. electoralcalculus.co.uk

    Chance of winning:_

    CON 76.7%

    LAB 21.6%

    LIB 0.0%

    OTH 0.0%

    UKIP 1.7%

  4. The immigration figures were, to me, a shock. Much higher than everyone expected.

    Cameron will say “…no benefits for 4 years…etc…” But will this convince significant numbers that this will stop or at least stem the tide of (any) immigration? If not, the Tory party will lose at least what is being polled currently. So a Labour govt looks more likely. I am sticking my neck out here but I am beginning to think that the only hope nationally for the Conservatives is a pre – election pact with UKIP.

  5. You are a fool if you think that an electoral pact with ukip is good for either party.

  6. Why?

  7. David could promise an earlier referendum to Nigel. I know, I know unlikely but I am saying that the Tories are doomed nationally – because of UKIP taking votes from them and simultaneously more Lib Dem voters switching to Labour than will vote CON.

    So the only hope for them is a pact.

  8. @Deepthroat: I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Electoral Calculus prediction for this seat, as the way their model is constructed treats UKIP as if they were coming from essentially a standing start in this and most other seats, and is heavily based on UNS with no local variation. If you fancy having a laugh, go look at their prediction regarding UKIP in Hackney South.

  9. “In my experience a lot of those who are most solidly UKIP today are the sort of people who swung from Conservative to Labour in the mid 90s but went elsewhere or didn’t vote in 2010 – white van man being a topical example. I guess if you wanted to bracket it into defined groups it you would describe it as predominantly C2 (employed and unemployed), as well as a significant chunk of self employed C1 and D.”

    Chris, that may be a valid view in the sout east, but I can assure you that in the north a significant number WWC voters who supported the tories most strongly between 1979 and 1992, and significant numbers did even before that, didn’t swing to Labour much at all in 1997. They just didn’t vote for anyone, and turnout drops across northern seats in those two elections show this to be the case. In 2001 turnout dropped even further in the sort of seat with these voters as even less WWC voters voted for anybody.

    Turnout for elections of any sort in these seats, only stareted to increase as the BNP many to launch its Lib/Lab/CON they’re all the same campaign from about 2003 onwards, and this vote rose steadile until 2006 or 2007. Turnout then started dropping again as the BNP started to implode and they stopped delivering locally targetted leaflets, outside election periods, which they had been managing to do. Between the 2012 and 2014 local election cycles in the north turnout has gone back up agian, as those BNP voters who almost to a person started voting UKIP on this same Lib/Lab/CON they’re all the same campaign theme. It’ll get the lots of second places off the Tories, but no wins.

    This differnce in how various regions votes will change, and the patterns behind it, is why I feel that England just doesn’t have a national political culture these days. It’s really very fragmented not just on a urban/rural basis, but a region to region basis as well. We could end up in a US stye situation or alost no marginal seats at all under a FPTP system, with voters overwhelmingly coralled, though not by gerrymandering, into safe seats for a locally dominat party,

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