Rochdale

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7742 (17%)
Labour: 20961 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 4667 (10.3%)
Green: 1382 (3%)
UKIP: 8519 (18.8%)
Others: 2159 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 12442 (27.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Rochdale council area.

Main population centres: Rochdale, Milnrow, Littleborough, Wardle.

Profile: Contains most of the town of Rochdale, apart from its western suburbs which lie in Heywood and Middleton, and the neighbouring towns of Milnrow and Littleborough, all former mill towns. In the east the seat stretches up into the foothills of the South Pennines, with the Pennine way passing through the eastern edge of the seat. The seat has a large ethnic minority population, with 17% describing themselves as Asian in the 2001 census.

Politics: Rochdale has a strong tradition of Liberal support. For twenty years it was represented by Sir Cyril Smith, but since his retirement it has become more marginal, swapping back and forth between Labour and the Liberal Democrats several times over the last twenty years. In 2010 the seat was the place where Gordon Brown infamously described a member of the public as a "bigoted woman" having accidentally left his microphone on - it did not prevent Labour retaking the seat from the Liberal Democrats.


Current MP
SIMON DANCZUK (Labour) Born 1966. Former labourer for Main Gas and ICI before returning to University and founding a social research company. Blackburn with Darwen councillor 1993-2001. First elected as MP for Rochdale in 2010. Danczuk has a high media profile, originally through his then wife Karen whose hobby of posting buxom selfies on social media made her a tabloid favourite, and later as a reliably vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn`s leadership.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8305 (18%)
Lab: 16699 (36%)
LDem: 15810 (34%)
UKIP: 1999 (4%)
Oth: 3094 (7%)
MAJ: 889 (2%)
2005*
Con: 4270 (10%)
Lab: 16345 (40%)
LDem: 16787 (41%)
BNP: 1773 (4%)
Oth: 1661 (4%)
MAJ: 442 (1%)
2001
Con: 5274 (13%)
Lab: 19406 (49%)
LDem: 13751 (35%)
GRN: 728 (2%)
Oth: 253 (1%)
MAJ: 5655 (14%)
1997
Con: 4237 (9%)
Lab: 23758 (49%)
LDem: 19213 (40%)
Oth: 874 (2%)
MAJ: 4545 (9%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
AZI AHMED (Conservative)
SIMON DANCZUK (Labour) See above.
ANDY KELLY (Liberal Democrat) Former Rochdale councillor.
MASUD MOHAMMED (UKIP) Born Kashmir. Housing officer. Rochdale councillor 2001-2012 for Labour and then the Liberal Democrats.
MARK HOLLINRAKE (Green) Born Rochdale.
KEVIN BRYAN (National Front) Contested Rossendale and Darwen 2010.
MOHAMMED SALIM (Islam Zinda Baad) Teacher and lecturer. Contested Rochdale 2010.
FAROOQ AHMED (Rochdale First) Born Rochdale. Rochdale councillor since 2007, originally elected for Labour.
Links
Comments - 619 Responses on “Rochdale”
  1. POLLTROLL – Completely agree. I also agree that personal lives should generally be out of politics, but in this case there would appear to be a case to answer around harrassment, and a clear power imbalance in the relationship, which should be relevant for a public figure. But yes, in the eyes of the average Rochdale voter (and that is what counts for this election) he is finished. I also predict him getting about 5%.

  2. Danczuk will easily get around 10% – or more – imo. Incumbency and the anti-Corbyn Labour vote will go to him. I see a result like:
    LAB 34%
    CON 37%
    DANCZUK 12%
    LDEM 14%
    UKIP 3%
    I think the Tories could sneak it – their candidate is a strong local woman cllr.

  3. Alex
    How when Danczuk is supposedly taking the “anti Corbyn vote” and the Libs are advancing a further 4% are the Tories more than doubling their vote to 37% You give the Tories ALL of the UKIP vote (minus the 3% you’ve left them) and that only gets them to 33%

    Does the anti Corbyn vote amount to more than 12% here, i.e more than 25% of Labs vote share in a very Muslim, working class constituency? If that were the case Lab must be losing 40% or more of their vote eleswhere which even the worst polls for Lab show is clearly NOT happening.

    Sorry dude the maths just don’t add up. In a weird way the better Danczuk does the less chance the Tories have of winning since their fishing in the same pond.

  4. Rivers10 – that’s also incorrect (to claim SD is avidly pro-EU). Indeed it can’t have been that well known, as the local paper mistakenly said he was pro Leave as he was still one of the 40 MPs undeclared either way with a fortnight to go last year.

    EcoW is right about one thing though – most Labour
    members hate Danczuk. But then polls show whose views are more in common with the public’s.

    Incidentally, Three Girls airs this week, beginning tonight on BBC1.

    Perhaps if you watch that you’ll both realise why hatred exists in Rochdale but it’s directed against Labour Cllrs and Officers here as well as the police and not Danczuk.

    Indeed the ex-police detective who was one of the whistleblowers speaking today has confirmed she’ll back Danczuk.

  5. Darn it! I thought for a minute that the “one thing” I was right about was you being Danczuk!!!!

  6. LD gain 5000 najority

  7. The chronology of events:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/daddy-rochdale-grooming-three-girls-13035665

    The Council have since admitted negligence and paid compensation to victims for their failure to act even after evidence of abuse of the girls was provided to them. GMP and the CPS have also apologised, but deny the whistleblower and Danczuk’s assertion that they failed to act as the perpetrators were all Asian men aged 33 – 56 and the victims were all white girls aged 12 – 15.

  8. RIVERS…I am presuming a big amount of switchers LAB>CON. The CON PPC is a personality as well as being a good local.

  9. Alex
    But as I said Danczuk and the Tories will be fishing in the same pool of disgruntled Lab voters, their is only so many of them, certainly not enough for Danczuk to poll 12%and the Tories to take a good chunk too. Either the Tories poll well or Danczuk does I don’t think we can have both.

  10. I think you’re being optimistic about the Labour vote turning out and sticking with the official Lab candidate. Also you assume I think, that the Muslim population will stay loyal to Labour – there’s evidence that this link is being broken and the election comes 2 two weeks into Ramadan and, particularly for those involved in campaigning, the timing may be unwelcome. The devout & the orthodox embrace the holy month with piety, prayer and fasting. For most of the Muslim communities…. Ramadan is usually a time to step back, a time of reflection and family.

    I can see the Tories getting around 15,000 – 16,000 & that might well be enough to win.

  11. Ladbrokes’ Odds for Rochdale:

    Labour 2/5
    Danczuk 3/1
    Cons 6/1
    LD 33/1

  12. LANCS OBSERVER – I think Labour will be very relaxed about those odds. Labour winning is definitely the “boring” result in this seat, and I can’t imagine it attracting many people betting on instinct and wishes. In the same way that one can always get value odds against horses called “Lucky 7” or “Mummy’s little helper” or something, the value odds here are probably with the least “interesting” result. 2/5 for Labour is generous.

  13. Simon Danczuk 1.8%.

    Oh…..isn’t that brilliant????

  14. Eco
    Agree, I said Danczuk would be having a brilliant night if he held his deposit to much criticism from some who seemed to believe he was in with a shot of winning, it was apparent to me that Danczuk was a total liability for Lab here and his derisory result seems to have proven so, hope that’s the last we ever hear of him.

  15. RIVERS10 – Yes, I predicted he’d get about 5%, so I slightly underestimated Rochdale. I looked at the declaration on Youtube, but unfortunately Danczuk’s face isn’t in shot!

    LANCS OBS – Now that Rochdale have soundly rejected your candidacy, will you be relaunching your political career with another party?

  16. The former Labour Group Chief Whip Cllr Peter Joinson has accused Rochdale Council Leader Cllr Farnell of lying to the public inquiry on historic CSE.

    Farnell was also council leader until April 1992 and it was just weeks before that date that the report highlighting Cyril Smith’s abuse at a children’s home here was circulated.

    Joinson gave evidence confirming that Farnell mentioned the report to him in 1992; but, yesterday Farnell said under cross examination that he had never been given the report even though it was sent to him and all heads of directorate’s of Rochdale Council.

  17. Just seen Alex F’s prediction. Wonder why we haven’t heard from him since. Not one of the more intelligent ones I’ve seen here & that’s saying quite a bit.

  18. Ha…I admit I made some stupid predictions in May 2017, notably LEICS EAST, CON gain! – but around end of May I completely changed my mind on CON doing well and I ended up placing the following bets towards end of May – 8 June

    Here’s most of the bets placed:

    Large bet UKIP < 10% vote share 1/3 WON
    Large bet UKIP zero seats 2/5 WON
    Medium bet Lib Dems < 14.5 seats 2/1 WON
    Small bet Lib Dems < 10.5 seats 5/1 lost
    NO OVERALL MAJ 7/2 WON

    Constituency bets
    LAB to win -winners
    HAMPSTEAD 11/4
    KENSINGTON 33/1
    HARROW W 11/4
    CROYDON C 2/1
    HAMMERSMITH 8/13
    BATTERSEA 3/1
    E LOTHIAN 11/4
    GOWER 4/1
    HENDON 7/2 lost

    CON to win
    COPELAND lost
    LEICESTER E lost
    VAUXHALL lost
    TOOTING lost
    ROCHDALE lost

    These last 5 were placed at start/mid of May

  19. & actually I was one of the few ppl who predicted a no overall majority. See LAB DEFENCE LIST thread.

    “PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 50
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    SURREY POLITICS:

    Twitter Predictions: CON MAJ
    @MattSingh_ 98
    @TSEofPB 106
    @paulmotty 82
    @IainDale 122
    @Election4castUK ([email protected]) 82
    Nigel Marriott 1002/ Predictions:
    @LordAshcroft (2017 MRP) 78
    @ElectoralCalculus (Martin Baxter) 72
    @RoadTo326 122
    @electiondata 124
    @DPJHodges 1103/ Predictions:
    @Andrew_Lilico 158
    @KeiranPedley 60 (midpt)
    @JantaLipinsky 80
    @MSmithsonPB 56 (midpt)
    @colinrtalbot 744/ Predictions:
    @StephenDFisher (combined) 66
    Fisher (polls-based) 48
    @GoodwinMJ (implied) 80
    @britainelects 60″

    Posted 8th June on LABOUR DEFENCE LIST

  20. (All the above were FINAL predictions, all on polling day 8/6/17)

  21. To be fair to Alex, there are plenty of threads filled with hilariously wrong predictions out there.

    My favourite was on Bristol West “Labour vote will slump here and it will emerge as a close Green / LD contest.”

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-17/#comments

  22. Good one.
    It’s just amazing how all the “experts” got their final predictions so wrong.

  23. @James E

    I enjoyed the Gorton by-election discussion full of wishful thinking from right-wingers who had very obviously got absolutely no idea about the place and were fondly imagining that the seat was in play.

    They were all completely, hilariously wrong, of course. Afzal Khan got 76% of the vote and now has a majority of nearly 32,000.

  24. It might have been closer had the GE never been called

  25. Andrew Lilico and Iain Dale were hilariously wrong. Good to see.

  26. In 2015 Iain Dale updated his predictions in 2017 he did it and then settled idk why.

    Matt Singh, Guido Fawks and Election Data were horribly wrong.

    No one got it as wrong as Labour Uncut though a tory maj of 250 was on the cards. Turns out Labour Uncut and Matt Singh were right about 2015 by chance

  27. “Andrew Lilico and Iain Dale were hilariously wrong. Good to see.”

    If a minister screwed up that badly, they’d have to completely rebuild their career. But pundits can just brush it off like it’s nothing, no matter how many times they get it wrong. Iain Dale’s stock in particular has never been higher than now, following that headline-grabbing interview with the PM.

  28. I’ve made my opinion on the political punditry very clear so I wont go another tirade about them.

    What I will do though is suggest to peeps that if nothing else they totally ignore Lab Uncut as nothing more than a doomsayer of Labs upcoming apocalypse. People give it far too much credibility cos it called 2015 right, what people don’t realise is that Labour uncut always and without fail predict an upcoming electoral test will be an utter disaster for Labour. They happened to get 2015 right, they’re more often than not wildly over pessimistic and in 2017 they fell flat on their face. To make matters even worse their follow up article after the result were in wasn’t in the slightest bit humble in admitting its owns failings, it instead tried to spin the result as a disappointment, claiming Lab should have been on course for an easy win… the site is a complete waste of bandwidth..

  29. @Matt Wilson

    ‘Closer’, arguably. But it was never going to be anything other than a massive Labour win. The only thing that could possibly have even slightly jeopardised it would have been Labour infighing over the nomination. When that didn’t happen the only remaining interest was to see who kept their deposits.

  30. @Tristan

    “Andrew Lilico and Iain Dale were hilariously wrong. Good to see.”

    Isn’t that a sentence you can use on pretty much any topic whatsoever though?

  31. On the subject of awful election punditry, this contribution from Andrew Neil in the week before the General Election is a fine example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3lx2oopccI

    It’s worth listening very carefully to what the man from Survation says here, although that’s difficult because of the interruptions from Neil and the other guests. .

  32. Let’s be fair. EVERYONE making a snap prediction on the day the general election was called got it wrong, except a handful on the left guilty of wishful thinking. That the latter group were right does not justify their thought process – they were merely right for the wrong reasons (their reasoning generally being along the lines of “Jeremy Corbyn will appeal to voters because he is a good person, unlike all those horrible Tories”, which has of course not stopped the Conservatives winning dozens of elections before.)

    It is true that some on the right were equally guilty of wishful thinking as the polls narrowed over the course of the campaign, to the point that by polling day the likelihood a Tory majority was, if you read the data properly, a fifty-fifty. The people who, at that point, still believed there was going to be a three-figure majority were living in cloud cuckoo land – especially considering many pollsters looked suspiciously like they were overcompensating for 2015.

  33. Polltroll
    While its true that most everyone called 2017 wrong some got it more wrong than others, as you rightly point out the signs where there that the election might not be the blow-out that the Tories were hoping for and some (myself included) factored that in and massively revised down the scale of the Tory win. Some though (including the vast majority of the punditry) refused to budge and were still hyping up a Tory landslide and refusing to process new information, ICM’s last poll showing a 12 point Tory lead was accepted by the pundits without question, Survation’s poll showing a one point Tory lead and YouGov’s mode showing a hung parliament though were dismissed as the pollsters making the same mistakes all over again…

    More so than any election I remember this one betrayed the pundits own biases and inability to look at things objectively. I distinctly remember some highlights that in retrospect seem frankly farcical such as the pundits claim that Labs manifesto leak was embarrassing (it was actually a masterstroke whether it was intentional or not) or the claim that May’s response to the terror attacks made her seem strong and stable when it actually just highlighted the severity of the cuts and gave birth to Labs “you can’t protect the country on the cheap” line which in my experience was very effective. Most comical of all though where the claims from some quarters that Mays “nothing has changed” speech after the dementia tax U turn made her seem decisive…give me strength.

    Myself (and to this sites credit most peeps here) could see all this was nonsense, the fact that the “experts” were so asinine though beggars belief and the fact that they still clog up our TV screens and newspaper pages is ridiculous hell Janan “Corbyn supporters are thick as pigs**t” Ganesh has even been shortlisted for the political pundit of the year award, I mean this is frankly a joke

  34. To be fair there was one bloke on YouTube that got the Labour number almost exactly right

  35. Matt
    I’d be curious to know who?

    Not saying I doubt you or anything like that rather that I wouldn’t be at all surprised if an amateur pundit or political anorak (like us here) called it right, my criticism is for the “professional” pundits employed by the broadcasters, papers and parties who are so stuck in the Westminster bubble they can’t tell a marginal from their elbows and are thus in the ironic position of being paid to do something they are uniquely incapable of doing.

  36. “I distinctly remember some highlights that in retrospect seem frankly farcical…”

    “Retrospect” being the key word. I don’t think many people disagreed at the time (though of course there is a certain level of establishment groupthink). I must admit I thought at the time the terror attacks would be good for the Conservatives, or rather they would be bad for Labour since defence has never been Corbyn’s strong suit, and the timing of attacks could have punctured his momentum. Maybe they still were a net plus to the Conservatives, maybe without them Corbyn would now be prime minister…

    ““Corbyn supporters are thick as pigs**t” Ganesh has even been shortlisted for the political pundit of the year award.”

    If I were in charge of “political pundit of the year”, I’d pretty much alternate it year-on-year between Tim Shipman (best understanding of the corridors of power) and John Harris (best understanding of the national mood). If you’re pressed for time and want to understand modern Britain, those are the two you need to read.

    And they both thought the Tories were heading for a landslide, by the way 😉

  37. His youtube handle is CaptainSwitzerland. His first prediction was Corbyn wpuld be the PM which clearly didn’t happen but then he did a breakdown of the seats in which he gave Labour 261 seats which he said was less than he thought when he made the video but after being through all the seats thats the number he came up with.

    Its entirely possible that he got lucky and his optimism worked well for him as LabourList and Matt Singhs pessimism worked for them in 2015. He got the smaller parties like the snp wrong. He never released a detail of his breakdown so maybe he thought Labour would win seats like MK South and Thurrock like the BBC Exit Poll did rather than Canterbury and Kensington.

    I actually love John Harris. I am currently binging all his 2010 election material. I particularly enjoyed the episode he filmed on the 8th of June it really summed up how i think the day felt. I met him once he is a nice bloke

  38. Thanks for explaining it Alex. I guess in a way Polltroll is right but some predictions bore no relation to what even the start-of-election-campaign opinion polls were saying including that one.
    The Bristol W prediction was indeed very seriously wrong – far from the Labour vote collapsing, it was one of the very highest numerical Labour votes in the entire nation at over 47,000, a staggering figure for a constituency which includes an area like Clifton.

  39. Bristol W – 37770 majoriy….incredible.

    Thangam Debbonaire, LAB 47,213
    Annabel Tall, CON 9,877
    Molly Scott Cato, GRN 9,216
    Stephen Williams, LD 5,201
    Overall turnout for Bristol West was 77.19 per cent, up from 70.4 per cent in 2015.One can safely assume Greens went back to Lab and students and working class voted in higher numbers.

    BARNABY M..do you think Lab can win in lower mc / middle class Tory seats with an obvious Leftist / Corbynite?

  40. Depends on the seats. In some, Labour is already winning. With the message correctly put across, discipline and work on the ground, in many cases yes.

  41. Re Bristol West I didn’t find the result all that surprising, it was obvious to me that the Libs were a busted flush in the seat and they’d fall further back, the question was would their votes go to the Greens (who thus might challenge Labour) or would the Greens themselves go backwards in which case ex Greens would defect en masse to Lab and Labs vote share would explode, it happened to be the latter.

    As for Clifton I think Barnaby your information is a bit dated, I don’t know Bristol but according to locals here like Pepps Clifton is not at all what it once was, its gone the way of many once affluent inner city areas and the large houses have been broken up into flats for students and young professionals, indeed Pepps argued that the only affluent thing about Clifton these days is its reputation, in reality Bristol’s money is in Stoke Bishop or Westbury in the Bristol NW seat.

  42. I admit it’s been a long while since I’ve been to Bristol. I wonder if people in Bristol & Bath still add an L to the end of words? (That’s how the city came to be called Bristol.)

  43. No.

    Similarly no more East enders say ‘Pony’ for £25 or ‘apples’ when they mean a flight of stairs or ‘syrup’ when talking about about a man’s wig.

    Do you think BARNABY that the current ruling left wing of the Labour party have a problem relating to the English working class and their culture?

  44. You’ll still hear plenty of people talking about a syrup or a pony in the likes of Canvey Island and Dartford. A few even here in East Grinstead, on the rougher side of town 🙂 But you’re right, the only time you hear them now in London proper is on repeats of Minder and the Sweeney.

  45. Don’t forget Danny Dyer on EastEnders HH (although I appreciate you don’t watch it anymore). It’s like he exists just to keep these hoary old phrases/ words going. He’s truly ‘avin a bubble.

  46. ‘Pony’ for £25 is actually very widely used, because in casinos those gambling sometimes say to the croupier, “I’ll have a pony on…”

    Similarly at the Races, although with all of the dog tracks having closed in London, I agree with HH that 80% of those characters will now be found living in Essex or Kent.

    Doesn’t Danny Dyer in fact say that – or something similar – to mean going to the loo?

    He actually did a half-sensible interview with a guy from the Clear English campaign in which they were both asked for words to use for those learning ESOL.

    In that, Danny explained that a chav/chavvy wasn’t a derogatory term to him – although it in fact meant a small child to Eastenders and not how rough they were.

  47. My best mate Kevin uses rhyming slang, both well-known expressions like going for a hit & miss and ones he makes up himself, like silly sod & chips for example.
    He grew up in a council estate in South Wimbledon and now lives near Leatherhead, Surrey.
    I’m sorry that Bristolians & Bathonians now longer add the L at the end of words, it was rather nice.

  48. And in answer to Alex F no more than any other politicians.

  49. Incidentally, both then Cllr Karen Danczuk & her ex-husband appeared in yesterday’s episode of BBC2’s ‘The Planners’ as did new MP Vera Hobhouse. I think it was filmed in 2012.

    Mrs Danczuk & Vera Hobhouse sat on the planning committee. An Islamic Centre proposed a huge expansion, which was recommended for refusal by planning officers, as 150 parking spaces were needed and yet only three would be provided.

    However, Mr Danczuk turned up with around 30 Muslim men and the (Muslim) chair of the planning committee proceded to rush to a vote and ignore the head of planning. Needless to say Hobhouse and two other cllrs were aghast and afterwards the head of planning admitted there was no valid reason to approve what would be a H&S hazard, but that Cllrs play politics with what is meant to be a quasi-judicial function.

    So it was a clear example – on film – of both Danczuks playing politics.

    Although before I please EcoW too much with the above, I should perhaps point out that Mr Danzcuk recently revealed that he intends to pursue a career in the media amongst other things.

  50. Alex F – incidentally, I’m told by a colleague in Rochdale that your Danczuk prediction was spot on a month before polling day, so you shouldn’t feel too bad.

    In fact 10% is what the local radio showed and was what I expected had a freepost leaflet gone out.

    However, here’s what I was told happened:

    I’m told that once Danczuk saw how poor the postal vote was, he decided not to bother with the full leaflet, ie it’d be a waste of good money after bad if he was likely to lose his deposit. Indeed a maverick Cllr from Merseyside who offered to help him tells me that he received no response, which he took to mean that Danczuk was only standing in order to receive the severance pay defeated MPs receive – whereas the reality is that Danczuk was prepared to fight a campaign ’til he realised he stood no chance as a spoiler to stop the Labour retread. I very much doubt even Danczuk believed he could ever have won.

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