Rochdale

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7742 (17%)
Labour: 20961 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 4667 (10.3%)
Green: 1382 (3%)
UKIP: 8519 (18.8%)
Others: 2159 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 12442 (27.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Rochdale council area.

Main population centres: Rochdale, Milnrow, Littleborough, Wardle.

Profile: Contains most of the town of Rochdale, apart from its western suburbs which lie in Heywood and Middleton, and the neighbouring towns of Milnrow and Littleborough, all former mill towns. In the east the seat stretches up into the foothills of the South Pennines, with the Pennine way passing through the eastern edge of the seat. The seat has a large ethnic minority population, with 17% describing themselves as Asian in the 2001 census.

Politics: Rochdale has a strong tradition of Liberal support. For twenty years it was represented by Sir Cyril Smith, but since his retirement it has become more marginal, swapping back and forth between Labour and the Liberal Democrats several times over the last twenty years. In 2010 the seat was the place where Gordon Brown infamously described a member of the public as a "bigoted woman" having accidentally left his microphone on - it did not prevent Labour retaking the seat from the Liberal Democrats.


Current MP
SIMON DANCZUK (Labour) Born 1966. Former labourer for Main Gas and ICI before returning to University and founding a social research company. Blackburn with Darwen councillor 1993-2001. First elected as MP for Rochdale in 2010. Danczuk has a high media profile, originally through his then wife Karen whose hobby of posting buxom selfies on social media made her a tabloid favourite, and later as a reliably vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn`s leadership.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8305 (18%)
Lab: 16699 (36%)
LDem: 15810 (34%)
UKIP: 1999 (4%)
Oth: 3094 (7%)
MAJ: 889 (2%)
2005*
Con: 4270 (10%)
Lab: 16345 (40%)
LDem: 16787 (41%)
BNP: 1773 (4%)
Oth: 1661 (4%)
MAJ: 442 (1%)
2001
Con: 5274 (13%)
Lab: 19406 (49%)
LDem: 13751 (35%)
GRN: 728 (2%)
Oth: 253 (1%)
MAJ: 5655 (14%)
1997
Con: 4237 (9%)
Lab: 23758 (49%)
LDem: 19213 (40%)
Oth: 874 (2%)
MAJ: 4545 (9%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
AZI AHMED (Conservative)
SIMON DANCZUK (Labour) See above.
ANDY KELLY (Liberal Democrat) Former Rochdale councillor.
MASUD MOHAMMED (UKIP) Born Kashmir. Housing officer. Rochdale councillor 2001-2012 for Labour and then the Liberal Democrats.
MARK HOLLINRAKE (Green) Born Rochdale.
KEVIN BRYAN (National Front) Contested Rossendale and Darwen 2010.
MOHAMMED SALIM (Islam Zinda Baad) Teacher and lecturer. Contested Rochdale 2010.
FAROOQ AHMED (Rochdale First) Born Rochdale. Rochdale councillor since 2007, originally elected for Labour.
Links
Comments - 619 Responses on “Rochdale”
  1. Interesting titbits on the great Danczuk. Ta.

    BTW. .the best thread to look at posters and expert’s predictions for GE2017 is CONSERVATIVE TARGETS..pages 11 and 12. Fascinating unravelling of opinions.

  2. Secretary of the Rochdale CLP, Sharon MacLean has resigned, citing the Party’s failure to deal with the Knowl View children’s home abuse scandal.

    She says it’s inconceivable that the Labour Council leader in 1990-92 failed to read the report, or it’s incompetent failure if true – either way he has to be suspended.

  3. Cllr Richard Farnell has (at last) resigned as Council Leader.

    Although 2 Cabinet members have also resigned at the choice of his deputy, Cllr Allen Brett, as the new leader.

    Brett is said to be too close to Farnell and backs his side that he didn’t know about the report into CSE at Knowl View.

  4. Council Leader Cllr Allan Brett has been secretly recorded in the Labour Group meeting saying that if an area doesn’t vote Labour next month he won’t spend any money there repairing their pot holes!

    He refused to appear on BBC North West Tonight, but released a statement saying he will be raising the issue of his breach of privacy.

  5. Labour Cllr Alan McArthy has defected to the Brexit Party.

    Former Leader of the Council, Colin Lambert has also joined the Brexit Party here.

  6. LibDem Cllr Kath Nickson has defected to the Brexit Party here, giving them a Group (after a Labour Cllr defected to them here, last week).

    2 ex-Lib Dem City Cllrs in Liverpool have also just joined the Brexit Party.

  7. Cllr Nickson was a Labour councillor 6 months ago before defecting to the Lib Dems, so you wonder where she’ll rock up next.

  8. It shows how some political opportunists have no sense of shame

  9. Lib Dems to the BXP is one hell of a jump. But this is about opportunism and keeping one’s job rather than political beliefs. See also: virtually everything Caroline Flint has said recently.

  10. It’s not like councillors have any influence on Brexit anyway. I don’t think a nationalist would organise bin collections appreciably differently from a socialist.

  11. Defecting to the Lib dems six months ago and now Brexit Party – it was quite clear six months ago that the Lib Dems were an overwhelmingly pro remain party.

  12. Tony Lloyd MP is in hospital with coronavirus (as is a Labour Cllr).

    I understand both are on oxygen, but not ventilators.

  13. Much older than Boris. Good news that he isn’t on a ventilator, but the odds are against over-70s in ICU.

    Seems like we will be very lucky to avoid at least one COVID by-election. I wonder how they will pan out? Opposition parties might stand aside like with Jo Cox?

  14. I don’t agree they should. It was not a deliberate act by someone or a group and not having by elections in these circs could or would stifle criticism (or praise) of the Government’s policies & actions (or by the same token, that of HM Opposition).

    Assassinations are a different matter although even in those circumstances it’s not an automatic or easy call.

  15. I think I agree with that. I thought it was a mistake for the Tories not to fight Batley & Spen at the time. But easy to see the outrage bus bullying opposition parties out of contesting tragic by-elections nowadays.

  16. Lloyd has been moved out of ICU

  17. Beginning to think parliament may avoid any fatalities from this disease. It depends how long this continues for, but not unreasonable to assume we have already had maybe 30% of covid deaths (this number based on the fact that it looks like we are beginning to decline, but that the decline will be much slower than the growth was). So, therefore, maybe 50,000 to 60,000 deaths total? (Plus uncounted care home deaths – call it 100,000).

    Since there’s one MP for every 100,000 citizens, you’d therefore expect an average of one MP covid death. But there are good a priori reasons to expect MPs to be less susceptible, on average, than the general public – they are not key workers risking exposure every day. They are wealthier, which probably provides a small benefit at the margin, as wealth is typically correlated with other lifestyle factos such as a healthy weight. Their age profile probably has an overall average risk compared to the baseline, with the couple dozen septuagenarians in parliament being counterbalanced by the younger go-getters who made their way into parliament last December. The only demographic factor I can think of that tilts MPs towards being susceptible to covid deaths is that they are still disproportionately male. Overall, I think it’s probably fifty-fifty whether any MPs are killed by covid.

  18. HH was right. It was very touch and go by all accounts.

    Lloyd was placed in an induced coma and ventilated for 10 days.

    He looked rough today in his first interview.

  19. Cllr Kath Nixon has now defected to the Conservative Group here.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)