Richmond Park

2015 Result:
Conservative: 34404 (58.2%)
Labour: 7296 (12.3%)
Lib Dem: 11389 (19.3%)
Green: 3548 (6%)
UKIP: 2464 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 23015 (38.9%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Richmond upon Thames council area and part of Kingston upon Thames council area.

Main population centres: East Sheen, Mortlake, Richmond, Ham, Kew, Barnes, Petersham, Coombe.

Profile: Richmond Park is a large royal park in south-west London, home to a herd of over 600 deer. The electorate of the Richmond Park consituency consists of the residential areas bordering it - Richmond itself, the riverside communities of Kew and Barnes and, to the south of the park, Kingston upon Thames. It is an affluent, middle-class suburban seat, characterised by desirable period houses, large gardens and huge property prices. The seat also contains Kew Gardens, the National Archives and Kingston University. The majority of planes landing at Heathrow airport descend over Barnes and Kew and the potential expansion of Heathrow airport is an important local issue.

Politics: The Richmond Park seat was created in 1997 from the merger of Richmond and Barnes and part of Kingston upon Thames, leaving the Kingston MP and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont to go on his doomed run up to Harrogate. Along with Twickenham and Kingston and Surbiton it formed part of a wedge of Liberal Democrat strength in South-West London until falling to Zac Goldsmith in 2010.


Current MP
ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) Born 1975, Westminster, son of Sir Jimmy Goldsmith, the founder of the Referendum party. Educated at Eton, where he was expelled for posession of cannabis. Former Environmental activist and editor of The Ecologist. First elected as MP for Richmond Park in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29461 (50%)
Lab: 2979 (5%)
LDem: 25370 (43%)
UKIP: 669 (1%)
Oth: 789 (1%)
MAJ: 4091 (7%)
2005*
Con: 20280 (39%)
Lab: 4768 (9%)
LDem: 24011 (47%)
GRN: 1379 (3%)
Oth: 936 (2%)
MAJ: 3731 (7%)
2001
Con: 18480 (38%)
Lab: 5541 (11%)
LDem: 23444 (48%)
GRN: 1223 (2%)
Oth: 463 (1%)
MAJ: 4964 (10%)
1997
Con: 22442 (39%)
Lab: 7172 (13%)
LDem: 25393 (45%)
Oth: 379 (1%)
MAJ: 2951 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) See above.
SACHIN PATEL (Labour)
ROBIN MELTZER (Liberal Democrat) Born Hammersmith. Educated at Shenfield High School and Cambridge University. Former BBC producer. Contested Kensington 2010.
SAM NAZ (UKIP)
ANDREE FRIEZE (Green) Journalist and editor.
Links
Comments - 2,131 Responses on “Richmond Park”
  1. According to ‘Labour sources’, quoted on the Guardian blog, the LDs have won by 2000-4000.

  2. Apparently Labour sources at the count believe that the Lib Dems will win with a majority of 2,000+

  3. I kinda hope Olney gets 53.6%, exactly matching the turnout.

    Has that ever happened?

  4. Guardian live blog:

    “Those raw figures – Lib Dems 55%, Zac Goldsmith 39% – would give Sarah Olney a majority of about 6,600. But Labour think it won’t be quite that high because those figures do not include postal votes.

    “It should be stressed that these are not official figures – just internal estimates from one party. But at this stage at a count a party with competent counting agents should be able to produce figures accurate to within one or two percent.”

  5. Conservative Estimate: your estimates are — conservatively — very wrong.

  6. I will be astonished if Olnet wins by as much as 2-4k.

  7. BBC’s Vicki Young reports that the Liberal Democrats have won (don’t worry – no declaration for a while yet!)

  8. Olney, correction.

  9. Sky reporter Faisal Islam reports Labour’s sampling model indicates that Zac has won.

  10. lost*** sorry lost***

  11. I don’t know yet.
    I was helping this morning – then had to go to work. My gut feel is this fell flat and has probably not gone well.
    But he may make it.

  12. “Conservative Estimate: your estimates are — conservatively — very wrong.”

    Simon was very right. As his 2015 Scottish “estimates” show us he’s just an optimistic Tory who guessed lucky in 2016.

  13. I think the Returning office said 41,000 + votes have been cast.
    So my guess is
    Labour got about 2,000 and the minor candidates only about 500.
    My gut feel is the Lib Dems have got about 20,000 and Zac about 18,500.
    It could be a box will come from a stronger (con/Ind) area
    I’m not at the count btw

  14. According to Chris Mason:

    53.6% is the highest turnout in a December by election since Enfield Southgate in 1984

  15. Twitter seems to think Loonies have come fourth… Somehow.

  16. Joe James,
    There are no more boxes or we would not have a precise turnout.
    The rumours at present are based on samples from all the boxes (almost certainly including postal votes, which are also verified at the main count)
    Labour and the Lib Dems will have modelled the result based on the same boxes in 2015. Sounds like the Zac team have not been sampling properly…
    Next thing will be the result, rumoured to be quite soon now

  17. Yes, boxes must have been opened a while ago.

  18. Zac’s looking like he’s lost. Latest betfair 89% LD 12% IND

  19. Candidates arriving, declaration “soon”.

  20. Christian Wolmar has arrived.

  21. LDs calling it that they’ve won.

  22. Well it’s December and I genuinely think this is the first piece of good news in 2016

  23. The World Health Organization recently said that Zika is no longer a world health crisis. That was pretty good.

  24. I missed that, more good news! I shall have a gin and tonic to celebrate

  25. The Liberals or LDs have either won or been within 4,215 votes of winning the various Richmond-based constituencies in every election since 1974. 2015 was very much the outlier:

    Feb 1974, Con maj over Lib: 3,827
    Oct 1974, Con maj over Lib: 4,215
    1979, Con maj over Lib: 2,530
    1983, Con maj over Lib: 74
    1987, Con maj over Lib: 1,766
    1992, Con maj over LDs: 3,869
    1997, LD maj: 2,951
    2001, LD maj: 4,964
    2005, LD maj: 3,731
    2010, Con maj over LDs: 4,091
    2015, Con maj over LDs: 23,015

  26. Lib Dem Press Office:

    We’re calling it. We’ve won. We’ve overturned a 23,000 majority.

  27. LIb Dem gain.

  28. If Olney has indeed won it will probably be tight again at the next election. If Goldsmith had stayed a Tory it was probably his for as long as he wants, even with Brexit.

  29. Apparently majority of around 3000

  30. 23000 lib dem votes

  31. Lib Dems on over 50%, Zac on around 45%

  32. Zac: 18,638
    LDEM: 20,589
    LAB: 1,015

  33. LD 20,502
    Goldsmith 18,638
    Lab 1,515
    Loony 184
    CPA 164

    LD maj 1,864

  34. 50.0 LD
    45.5 IND
    3.7 LAB
    0.4 LNY
    0.4 CPA

  35. Is it 20,502 or 20,589?

    Either way, wow.

  36. I would like to draw attention to this comment made the other day by Con Estimate

    “There is not a chance of Zac being beaten here, looking forward to Friday morning immensely when you’re proved incorrect (again in NTY UK’s case).
    You may not like Goldsmith, but don’t project that onto loony predictions of a yellow gain here”

    And that ladies and gentleman is why you don’t make bold predictions of certainty. Now I’d ask Con Estimate to learn from this, lest it happen again.

  37. Also, Conservative Estimate said he was positive Goldsmith would win by 30%. HA.

  38. Alright Rivers there’s no need for that.

  39. Change:
    +30.7 Liberal Democrat
    -12.7 Goldsmith
    -8.6 Labour

  40. Big upset here.

    Andy JS’s figures say it all…this is an area where the LD’s have been strong for an awfully long time, with 2015 very much an anomaly. This is still a huge shock given the Tories huge lead nationally and the stagnating LD position. However, this is very much an idiosyncratic result that is unlikely to play out in very many other constituencies.

  41. Liberal Democrats just edge over the 50% mark

  42. I wonder what parts of the constituency went for the Lib Dems and what part went for Goldsmith? Does anyone have any idea?

  43. @ Matt –

    Conservative Estimate made a mockery of anyone who he disagreed with because he believed his supposed “estimates” were superior to everyone else’s: he actually said once that his opinion was superior to mine because he was always right and I wrong (which is completely untrue, as he conveniently likes to forget he was completely wrong about Scotland in 2015). This is still present in his more recent posts, such as the one Rivers pointed out:

    “There is not a chance of Zac being beaten here, looking forward to Friday morning immensely when you’re proved incorrect (again in NTY UK’s case). You may not like Goldsmith, but don’t project that onto loony predictions of a yellow gain here”

    I don’t have any sympathy for him because of his constant mockery of everyone who he disagrees with.

  44. LDs actually got 20,510 not 20,502 as I posted before. It was difficult to hear the returning officer amid all the cheering.

  45. Matt
    It’s not meant to be personal it’s just he’s been making an awful lot of very bold proclamations and my repeated hints that in these tumultuous times said predictions are of highly dubious quality have for the most part fell on deaf ears.

    Thus i want him knocked down a notch cos generally I find that the more modest peeps here are the most insightful. Maxim talks a lot of sense when he isn’t in full on young Tory mode. Most here myself included have ended up with egg on our face at one point or another, it’s whether you learn from it.

  46. NTY UK is completely right, Conservative Estimate was unnecessarily rude and arrogant in his predictions, and I certainly hope he’s eating some humble pie tonight.

  47. Completely disagree with Tristan. This a a very good result for the Libdems and fits a pattern of large swings in council byelections for them. Remember Richmond Park was moving away from the demographically. Tory MPs in seats like Bath, Oxford W & Abigdon, Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheltenham, Lewes etc. should be very worried. The Cameron majority was built on gobbling up the LDs and I still believe he is a more natural politician than May and that she shouldn’t assume that she will get a majority just because Labour under Corbyn are hopeless.

    Lesson for Tories is don’t think you can move to the right and become UKIP lite and push Hard Brexit without consequences to your left. There are lots of affluent, moderate small L Liberal votes for the Tories to lose.

    When it comes to the LDs ignore the national polls and focus on results they will rise as they gain profile closer to a general election as in the past.

  48. I would like to add that having read NTY’S post I don’t share his animosity towards Con Estimate in the slightest, whatever beef excists between those two is their business but personally I actually like Con Estimate, this was just a perfect opportunity for a frequent poster to hopefully have an epiphany and become all the better for it, I’m a lefty I always live in hope 🙂

  49. I don’t mind some friendly teasing, but Con Estimate got pretty uppity about the validity of his predictions — and then he was proven completely and utterly wrong. He deserves a bit of mockery, to be honest. Although I doubt we’ll see him posting for a little bit.

  50. I don’t dislike Conservative Estimate I just find him unnecessarily rude. I have no sympathy for him at the moment because he constantly mocks others when they are in his current position: how is that deserving of any kind of sympathy when he’s usually the one doing the mocking? Worse still, I detest personal insults (they do not belong on this website – most of us do it in one way or another but I don’t welcome those who do it on a daily basis). I hope that he learns from this and starts treating others on here with more respect on here.

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