Richmond Park

2015 Result:
Conservative: 34404 (58.2%)
Labour: 7296 (12.3%)
Lib Dem: 11389 (19.3%)
Green: 3548 (6%)
UKIP: 2464 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 23015 (38.9%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Richmond upon Thames council area and part of Kingston upon Thames council area.

Main population centres: East Sheen, Mortlake, Richmond, Ham, Kew, Barnes, Petersham, Coombe.

Profile: Richmond Park is a large royal park in south-west London, home to a herd of over 600 deer. The electorate of the Richmond Park consituency consists of the residential areas bordering it - Richmond itself, the riverside communities of Kew and Barnes and, to the south of the park, Kingston upon Thames. It is an affluent, middle-class suburban seat, characterised by desirable period houses, large gardens and huge property prices. The seat also contains Kew Gardens, the National Archives and Kingston University. The majority of planes landing at Heathrow airport descend over Barnes and Kew and the potential expansion of Heathrow airport is an important local issue.

Politics: The Richmond Park seat was created in 1997 from the merger of Richmond and Barnes and part of Kingston upon Thames, leaving the Kingston MP and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont to go on his doomed run up to Harrogate. Along with Twickenham and Kingston and Surbiton it formed part of a wedge of Liberal Democrat strength in South-West London until falling to Zac Goldsmith in 2010.


Current MP
ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) Born 1975, Westminster, son of Sir Jimmy Goldsmith, the founder of the Referendum party. Educated at Eton, where he was expelled for posession of cannabis. Former Environmental activist and editor of The Ecologist. First elected as MP for Richmond Park in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29461 (50%)
Lab: 2979 (5%)
LDem: 25370 (43%)
UKIP: 669 (1%)
Oth: 789 (1%)
MAJ: 4091 (7%)
2005*
Con: 20280 (39%)
Lab: 4768 (9%)
LDem: 24011 (47%)
GRN: 1379 (3%)
Oth: 936 (2%)
MAJ: 3731 (7%)
2001
Con: 18480 (38%)
Lab: 5541 (11%)
LDem: 23444 (48%)
GRN: 1223 (2%)
Oth: 463 (1%)
MAJ: 4964 (10%)
1997
Con: 22442 (39%)
Lab: 7172 (13%)
LDem: 25393 (45%)
Oth: 379 (1%)
MAJ: 2951 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) See above.
SACHIN PATEL (Labour)
ROBIN MELTZER (Liberal Democrat) Born Hammersmith. Educated at Shenfield High School and Cambridge University. Former BBC producer. Contested Kensington 2010.
SAM NAZ (UKIP)
ANDREE FRIEZE (Green) Journalist and editor.
Links
Comments - 2,317 Responses on “Richmond Park”
  1. I know predictions like that are not very scientific, but if that was the result, it would of course highlight the wisdom of Labour joining the Progressive Alliance.

  2. The difficulty with the Progressive Alliance is the assumption that the views of party leaders and membership on the one hand and party voters on the other hand are pretty much identical. But 32% of LD voters were for Leave and, bizarrely, 5% of UKIP were for Remain. The West Midlands Mayoral election should have been won by the Labour candidate as there was a clear ‘Progressive’ majority on first preference votes. But that didn’t happen. On another post someone has calculated that LD second preference votes only split 2/3rd to 1/3rd in favour of the Labour. Admittedly a lot of second preference votes were wasted, being given to other minor parties, and the Tory clearly had an appeal beyond the core Tory vote. Nonetheless it is possible to over hype the Progressive majorit, especially when the tide is running so firmly in the Tories’ direction.

  3. I carried out a straw phone poll over the week-end and it would appear the LD will hold on to this seat, the result I found was;
    CON 43%
    LAB 5%
    LD 50%
    UKIP 2%

  4. My uncle lives in this seat. He’s always voted green but this time hell hold his nose and vote LD. Wouldn’t think hed be the only one.

  5. How many people did you call in your straw poll, Paul?

  6. Let’s not forget how accurate Paul Way’s straw polls were in 2015.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/rossskyeandlochaber/comment-page-6/#comments

    PAUL WAY
    Did a straw phone poll for this seat at the weekend, contacted 15 votes from each of the following, Dingwall, Portree, and Beauly, THE POLL RESULTS ARE;
    LD———44%
    SNP——-35%
    CON——8%
    LAB——-8%
    OTHERSS—5%
    April 6th, 2015 at 5:30 pm

  7. In all seriousness this site belongs to YouGov and they should ban fake illegal polls from the site. Who knows, some poor mug might use them as the basis for a bet or somesuch.

  8. I made straw phone polls and a few street straw polls in 2015. I am first to accept not all were correct but about 95% were correct. I won’t have as much time to do as many straw phone polls this year but I hope to get about 18 seats straw polled and a couple of visits to certain seats in the next two weeks to carry out street straw polls.
    I hope to include 1 from N.Ireland, 2 or 3 from both Scotland and Wales and about a dozen English seats. As soon as I complete each I’ll put up the results.

  9. Thanks Paul 🙂 🙂

  10. ”I carried out a straw phone poll over the week-end and it would appear the LD will hold on to this seat, the result I found was”

    How many voters did you survey? If it was only a handful the margin of error is huge and basically 50-43 split is too close to call.

  11. Plus did you control for vote last time, age, class etc.?

  12. 90% of people will slam the phone down and/or tell him to f-off. So to get 30 bona fide responses he needs to make 300 calls. And to get them he needs to call at least double the amount of numbers as at least half aren’t in or won’t answer. 600 phone calls for a worthless sample of 30? Expensive and illegal, under nuisance phone call legislation. Surely you can’t believe he’s telling the truth guys…a more obvious pile of horseshit you won’t find on here. As I said, shame on YouGov for not deleting fake polls from here, that is against the polling council guidelines I believe.

  13. @ Paul Way

    “…about 95% were correct”

    No they weren’t. Your Ross Skye and Lochaber ‘poll’ was 21% out, and here’s another where the margin between the parties finishing first and second in the last GE was out by 20% (Greens getting 27%, as opposed to 6%).

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-9/#comments

  14. Don’t feed the troll mate

  15. Ignore Paul Way. Hemmelig is right. Just let him be and it’ll go away when it gets bored.

  16. Actually, in spite of apparent lack of Science it did tickle me greatly that a lot of Paul Way’s ‘straw polls’ were just as / more accurate (or no more inaccurate) than a lot of posters’ strongly made predictions / assertions on here.

    Some were way out, as has been pointed out, but some were much closer to the result that most people were saying. And at the end of the day, it was a lot cheaper than Ashcroft’s equally / more inaccurate constituency polls outside of Scotland! – so if you want someone to blame for wasting money on bets, blame Ashcroft.

    Paul is harmless, not a troll. I find it very amusing. Also, for those of you inclined to take it too seriously still, please note that his predictions are not favourable in one direction / biased towards anyone, they are all over the place.

    Us conceited ‘experts’ as we like to think, need to take a chill pill. Paul’s not posting 100 times a day (he couldn’t get that many phone calls done!), and you don’t have to take any notice of his tiny number of posts if you don’t want to. 🙂

  17. HH: “90% of people will slam the phone down and/or tell him to f-off.” I find that assessment incredible. Surely it would be a minority? Asking seriously as I believe that the response rates for polls are around only 35-45% and some can be as low as 20%.

  18. Response rates for cold calls are very low, even for reputable pollsters.

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