Redcar

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6630 (16.2%)
Labour: 17946 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 7558 (18.5%)
Green: 880 (2.2%)
UKIP: 7516 (18.4%)
Others: 389 (1%)
MAJORITY: 10388 (25.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Cleveland. Part of the Redcar and Cleveland council area.

Main population centres: Redcar, Marske by the Sea, Eston, Grangetown.

Profile: An industrial seat on the southern bank of the Tees estuary. Redcar itself is a Victorian seaside town, but this seat is mostly heavy industry, including the steelworks, Teesport, the former ICI chemical works at Wilton and the Teeside power station, currently mothballed..

Politics: Redcar was previously a safe Labour seat, held by the party since its creation in 1974. Labour MPs Mowlam and Vera Baird enjoyed majories in excess of thirty percent. The closure of the steelworks in 2009 hit the town hard and was the foundation of an immense swing at the 2010 election, when the Liberal Democrats took the seat on a 22 percent swing. The steelworks were reopened in 2012, but it did not help the Liberal Democrats who lost the seat back to Labour in 2015 on a swing that was almost as large.


Current MP
ANNA TURLEY (Labour) Former think tank researcher and former special advisor to David Blunkett. First elected as MP for Redcar in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5790 (14%)
Lab: 13741 (33%)
LDem: 18955 (45%)
UKIP: 1875 (4%)
Oth: 1602 (4%)
MAJ: 5214 (12%)
2005
Con: 6954 (18%)
Lab: 19968 (51%)
LDem: 7852 (20%)
BNP: 985 (3%)
Oth: 3102 (8%)
MAJ: 12116 (31%)
2001
Con: 9583 (25%)
Lab: 23026 (60%)
LDem: 4817 (13%)
Oth: 772 (2%)
MAJ: 13443 (35%)
1997
Con: 11308 (23%)
Lab: 32972 (67%)
LDem: 4679 (10%)
MAJ: 21664 (44%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JACOB YOUNG (Conservative) Educated at Macmillan Academy and Teeside University. Technician.
ANNA TURLEY (Labour) Think tank researcher and former special advisor to David Blunkett.
JOSH MASON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Durham University. Press and campaigns officer. Redcar and Cleveland councillor since 2011.
CHRIS GALLACHER (UKIP)
PETER PINKNEY (Green) Born Saltburn. President of the RMT trade union.
PHILIP LOCKEY (North East Party) Born Teeside. Former serviceman.
Links
Comments - 230 Responses on “Redcar”
  1. Alright so UKIP are going to do really well (!)

    The Tories ahead of Labour? Please don’t make me laugh.

  2. Certainly the chance of a Robin Hood outcome next year is becoming vanishingly remote. The polls are moving to Labour again. Latest Yougov puts Labour on 39%, 7% ahead of the Tories. There is no sign whatsoever of the so-called “swingback”, and we are fast running out of time for it to happen to a significant degree.

    For the first time in quite a while, I’m starting to believe that Labour might manage to get a small overall majority.

  3. I think a small OM of 20 on a bad night and 50 on a good night is a reasonably likely outcome. There has been, relatively speaking, almost no major shift in public opinion since the Omnishambles budget and the rise of UKIP.

    Future historians will look back on the period from 2010-2015 as a gap in this country’s political history, in which society hardly changed at all, and a government of fairly bland politicians didn’t do much except (in the LDs’ case) ruin their own careers. The only chance of this parliament being even remotely interesting is on September 18th.

  4. “Future historians will look back on the period from 2010-2015 as a gap in this country’s political history”

    I think it will be seen as a lull period of political stability and relative prosperity, in between two periods of significant political instability and economic recession (2007-10 and 2015-20). I think that will be the case whoever wins next year, though I think it highly likely that Labour will form the next government.

  5. Right, so any talk of the Tories having the most seats next year, being ahead in votes or anything on that theme needs to be quashed as of now.

    Is it accepted therefore that Labour WILL finish ahead in votes and seats next year, come what may, small majority or none at all?

  6. No of course not, don’t be stupid, nothing is certain.
    Personally I think Labour will win on seats, not sure on votes.

  7. Of course nothing is certain.

  8. ”No of course not, don’t be stupid, nothing is certain.
    Personally I think Labour will win on seats, not sure on votes.”

    I’m not being stupid Iain. I like to call it realistic. I won’t be mistaken, believe me now.

  9. Of course it is stupid to say “Is it accepted therefore that Labour WILL finish ahead in votes and seats next year, come what may” and that “any talk of the Tories having the most seats next year, being ahead in votes or anything on that theme needs to be quashed as of now”

  10. They will. Whether you like it or not.

  11. I’ll be right next year. I know it.

  12. There is enough variety in the polls at present for almost anyone to project their prejudices on to – Populus has the parties neck and neck for example, ICM the Tories a point ahead.

    On the basis of last night’s local election results you could even talk up the Lib Dems’ chances.

  13. Whilst I stop short of saying that outcome is “certain” we are very near the point ( say after the Indy Ref?) where if the polls don’t start moving in the Tories direction then only some extreme/unpredictable Falklands War type event would save them – not utterly impossible the way the world is at the moment but very unlikely.

  14. I know anything could happen between now and next May.

    I just think that if the Tories are to even think about finishing ahead of Labour, things will have to drastically change for David Cameron and his party between now and then.

  15. Well those posts more or less prove my point I think

  16. My current prediction for 2015-
    Labour- 46%
    Liberal Democrat- 31%
    Conservative- 11%
    UKIP- 10%
    Others- 2%

  17. Without Swales, that might be high for the Lib Dems. Low for UKIP, too, I think.

    Mine would be:

    Labour 48%
    Lib Dem 27%
    UKIP 13%
    Conservative 11%
    Others 1%

  18. Labour will definitely win here, it’s just a matter of by how much. A win by 21% is actually quite realistic.

  19. “I just think that if the Tories are to even think about finishing ahead of Labour, things will have to drastically change for David Cameron and his party between now and then.”

    The Russia / Ukraine situation might provoke such a change, in either direction.

    Now that so many Europeans and Americans have been killed, the west is now stuck between the political need to be seen to do something about Russia and its arming of east Ukrainian rebels, and the uncomfortable hold which Russia has over oil and gas supplies, to Europe in particular. No doubt that an oil price spike would kill the recovery, just at the time interest rates are going to start going up anyway.

    Or conversely, in the face of renewed Russian threat it might make the voters think that they would prefer statesmanlike Cameron in charge rather than the geeky and inexperienced Miliband (whose father’s Russian sympathies could be expected to re-emerge in the Mail and the like).

  20. I think the lib dems will hold, I mean 12% is a decent gap and the rise of UKIP will not really hurt the lib dems , but it will damage labour.

    prediction for 2015-

    Lib- 38%
    Lab- 36%
    UKIP- 13%
    con- 10%
    BNP- 2%
    TUSC- 1%

  21. I disagree with that prediction. And I’ll tell you why-
    1. Ian Swales is standing down, and any personal vote he might have carried as well as possible incumbency factor will be lost, and with it the seat for the Lib Dems back to Labour.
    2. The Lib Dems locally have fallen right back in local elections, and this is exactly the kind of seat that won’t have taken too kindly to the Lib-Con coalition.
    3. This was a safe Labour seat for a very long time- the result last time was a bit of a Ludlow in 2001 type scenario, I can’t see it being repeated next time, sorry.

  22. Yes, this is one that is a dead cert LD loss. I could have seen Swales possibly––and I mean POSSIBLY, as in a remote chance––holding on, but without him, the seat is lost. The Lib Dems should sink into the mid-20s, I’d guess. Now that the local issues that helped Swales get in have subsided somewhat, I think the Lib Dems will come crashing back down to earth.

    Here’s my prediction:

    Lab 45
    Lib Dem 25
    Con 17
    UKIP 11
    Oth 2

  23. I think Swales would have held, but without him we are toast :/
    However, The Results
    ‘The Lib Dems locally have fallen right back in local elections’
    This is incorrect, the 2011 elections showed a miniscule swing, I can’t remember which way, and we held a by-election in a very marginal ward on the same day as the disastrous Euro elections.

  24. But Labour are still the largest party locally I think.

  25. Currently, the makeup of the Redcar & Cleveland Council is:

    Labour/Labour Co-op: 32
    Liberal Democrats: 16
    Conservative: 6
    East Cleveland Independents: 3
    Independents: 2

    Not altogether horrid for the Lib Dems, really.

  26. Well there’s got to be SOME opposition party here, I guess.

  27. IIRC, there have been quite a few defections, from both LD and Labour (though the LDs have been hit harder).

  28. Labour are still the dominant party, and that’s a fact. It can’t be denied.

  29. 2011 Election (changes from 2007):
    Labour – 10,415 – 41.02% (+4.22%)
    Liberal Democrats – 9,889 – 38.95% (+3.17%)
    Conservatives – 1,729 – 6.81% (-5.18%)
    Eston Independents – 855 – 3.37% (-0.77%)
    Teesville Independents – 779 – 3.07% (n/a)
    Independents – 771 – 3.04% (-7.21%)
    Normanby Independents – 614 – 2.42% (n/a)
    South Bank Independents – 338 – 1.33% (n/a)

    Part of Labour’s increase is due to fielding a full slate of candidates

    Remember the council area is more than the constituency

  30. Next year, the Lib Dems will do badly in Redcar, both here and in the local elections, just you wait…

  31. I already said that if you bother to read my posts

  32. Do you think the Lib Dems will hold up well here in the future or do you think they will fade away locally?

  33. ‘I think Swales would have held, but without him we are toast :/’
    A direct quote from me earlier.

    TBH, I have no idea. A lot will depend on the state of the local party, and probably on who is in government come 2015.

  34. I’d think they’ll build back a respectable second, but never win it again.

  35. I’ve only just seen Ian Swales is standing down.
    I’d have thought that makes a Labour gain certain.
    The LDs were pretty likely to lose but not by the kind of margin as Man Withington, Burnley or Brent Central.
    It may still be closer than that because I think there were genuine economic reasons for this result and not so much to do with any of the candidates, hence, less of a factor either way
    but without the incumbency they’ll find it impossible now IMO.

  36. Ashcroft (In Your Constituency):

    Labour 44%
    UKIP 24%
    Lib Dem 17%
    Conservative 12%
    Green 2%
    Other 1%

    It seems the Lib Dems’ 2010 “Bugger Off” vote has buggered off to UKIP. One to watch in 2020.

  37. I struggle to imagine someone voting lib dem in 2010 and UKIP in 2015.

  38. Well if that poll happened for real in May, that would be an absolutely disastrous result for the Lib Dems here- though it probably won’t.

    Labour will still gain this without a doubt, but if their vote share decreased and UKIP took second, that would make them still having to treat this as a marginal seat if UKIP made progress in the North against Labour in 2020.

  39. More bloodletting in Redcar Labour…? Tweets du jour..

    David Rhodes @_davidrhodes · 2h2 hours ago

    Sheelagh Clarke the Deputy Leader of #Redcar Council has also been deselected. It’s understood two other cabinet members deselected as well

    David Rhodes @_davidrhodes · 2h2 hours ago

    I can confirm that the leader of the #Labour Council in #Redcar, George Dunning has been deselected by his own party

    I guess this frees them up to campaign for the Labour PPC… or not…

  40. In light of this BBC tweet:

    @_davidrhodes

    Joint statement from @annaturley & @TomBlenkinsop they say “It is time for change. Today members have begun choosing a fresh new team”

    One might suspect the Redcar PPC (and the Middlesbrough South MP) also wanted them gone..

  41. This won’t save the LDs from defeat here though.

  42. Do I detect some clutching at straws here?

  43. https://www.facebook.com/bbcdailyandsundaypolitics

    Daily politics video on Labour at Redcar. Labour party have imploded.

  44. Redcar Lab 32%
    Official Lab 30%
    LD 14%
    UKIP 11%
    Con 10%
    Green 3%

  45. And another twist, as the Greens select the President of the RMT union to fight Redcar.

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/rmt-union-president-im-standing-8598307

  46. Aren’t the RMT affiliated to TUSC?

  47. Mr__________

    I think he is standing and fighting as a Green Party member who also (like me) happens to be a member of his union (albeit one of the most prominent in his case), so it is perfectly possible RMT could be simultaneously supporting TUSC.

  48. I don’t think the RMT are formally affiliated, but up to Bob Crow’s death they certainly were closely associated with TUSC. The new General Secretary, however, is a Labour Party member, and there could in time be a rapprochement between the union and the party – something of which I’d be strongly in favour.

  49. Although RMT have indeed been closely linked to TUSC, they gave a sizeable donation to Caroline Lucas’s election campaign in Brighton Pavilion, while Bob Crow was still leader, on the back of her support for renationalizing the railways.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)