Putney

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23018 (53.8%)
Labour: 12838 (30%)
Lib Dem: 2717 (6.3%)
Green: 2067 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1989 (4.6%)
Others: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10180 (23.8%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Wandsworth council area.

Main population centres: Putney, Southfields, Roehampton.

Profile: Putney is a residential seat on the south bank of the Thames opposite Fulham. It covers Putney itself, Southfields and Roehampton. Putney is largely affluent leafy, owner occupied suburbia, an area of golf and rowing clubs similar to its neighbour Richmond Park. Southfields is a grid of victorian built terraced housing, now gentrified and popular with commuters. However, there is also a substantial amount of social housing here and a large number of tower blocks in the vast council estate in Roehampton alongside Richmond Park.

Politics: A normally Conservative seat that fell to Labour in 1997. the solid base of Labour support in Roehampton meant it was Labour who garnered the anti-Conservative vote here and held the seat between 1997 and 2005, unlike the rest of south-west London where the Liberal Democrats gained from anti-Conservative feeling in the 1990s. Most general election nights produce a defining result of some sort - in 1992 David Amess`s defence of Basildon symbolised the Conservative victory, in 1997 Michael Portillo`s defeat in Enfield Southgate was a defining moment of history (though the result here in Putney, where David Mellor was barracked by Sir James Goldsmith is also well remembered), in 2001 perhaps Peter Mandleson`s victory speech in Hartlepool gained most attention in a standstill election. In 2005 this was the first Conservative gain and provided in Justine Greening a photogenic symbol of Conservative gains for the media to focus on the next day.


Current MP
JUSTINE GREENING (Conservative) Born 1969, Rotherham. Educated at Oakwood Comprehensive School and Southampton University. Former accountant and former finance manager at Centrica. Contested Ealing Acton and Shepherds Bush 2001. First elected as MP for Putney in 2005. Economic Secretary 2010-2011, Secretary of State for Transport 2011-2012. Secretary of State for International Development since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21223 (52%)
Lab: 11170 (27%)
LDem: 6907 (17%)
GRN: 591 (1%)
Oth: 894 (2%)
MAJ: 10053 (25%)
2005*
Con: 15497 (42%)
Lab: 13731 (38%)
LDem: 5965 (16%)
GRN: 993 (3%)
Oth: 388 (1%)
MAJ: 1766 (5%)
2001
Con: 13140 (38%)
Lab: 15911 (46%)
LDem: 4671 (14%)
UKIP: 347 (1%)
Oth: 185 (1%)
MAJ: 2771 (8%)
1997
Con: 17108 (39%)
Lab: 20084 (46%)
LDem: 4739 (11%)
Oth: 546 (1%)
MAJ: 2976 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JUSTINE GREENING (Conservative) See above.
SHEILA BOSWELL (Labour) Media and communications consultant. Contested Wandsworth councillor since 2010.
ANDY HALLETT (Liberal Democrat)
TRICIA WARD (UKIP) Educated at Leeds University. Tutor and journalist.
CHRIS POOLE (Green)
GUY DESSOY (Animal Welfare) Educated at Maplesden Noakes Secondary and Open University. Chief Operations Officer.
Links
Comments - 336 Responses on “Putney”
1 2 3 7
  1. Interesting interview with Justine Greening in the Sunday Times today arguing why the 0.7% aid target should be maintained.

    I don’t really want any more people drowning in boats off the coast of Sicily TBH.

    (my mother was working in the south of Italy during the time of the 1983 election)

    I also see that UKIP is on 15% in a yougov poll subset in the same article.

    Are any of my statements incorrect………?

  2. And my mother reads the Telegraph BTW and votes LD in Westminster elections and Conservative in Holyrood and local ones.

  3. You seem to have an unhealthy obsession with your mother, for a 25 year old. You mention her in 75% of your posts!

  4. Prediction for 2015-
    Conservative- 49%
    Labour- 32%
    Lib Dem- 11%
    UKIP- 3%
    Green- 2%
    Others- 3%

  5. CON HOLD MAJ: 10%
    CON 43
    LAB 33
    LD 12
    UKIP 7
    GRN 5

  6. 2012 constituency GLA vote

    Con 14027 52.8%
    Lab 7264 27.3%
    Grn 2128 8.0%
    LD 2298 8.6%
    UKIP 478 1.8%
    Ind 204 0.8%
    Soc 184 0.7%

    2015 forecast for Putney

    Con 47
    Lab 33
    LD 10
    Green 5
    Others 5

  7. Why would we do so much worse than 2012? Barnaby is probably the expert on this, but I get the impression that there is pro tory demographic change here. The 2010 result and 2012 results being stronger than expected suggests it.

    I would forecast next to no such swing here.

  8. Putney’s always been a pretty prosperous area but much of the seat is making a transition from prosperous to super-wealthy. Labour only started to contend when the Roehampton estate was built in the early 60s; before that it was a safe Tory seat, even in 1945. The terraced houses (for the most part always a bit more upmarket than those in Battersea next door) have become pretty posh now. Perhaps what’s happened in Richmond has also happened here – the intellectual middle-class, once a major factor in the constituency, has been priced out & the wealthy city workers have replaced them. Against that, the big swings to Labour that took place in the council by-elections in Thamesfield & Southfields wards (though both were still quite comfortably held) is a quiet warning to the Tories not to take the area totally for granted yet. Only Roehampton & Putney Heath ward (as it’s been renamed) has remained largely demographically unaltered – it’s going to be tight again there in 2014 I expect. Some even of the council flats have fallen into private hands, and often have S African residents, but there’s still a large working class vote in the ward, including a large black community.

  9. “Only Roehampton & Putney Heath ward (as it’s been renamed) has remained largely demographically unaltered – it’s going to be tight again there in 2014 I expect.”

    It’s also the only part of the constituency where Labour has any realistic chance of gaining council seats. Winning the ward outright is going to be tough but a split result as in 2010 is fairly likely IMO.

  10. As awful as the 2012 GLA results were for Labour in Wandsworth, I don’t think they are a completely reliable guide to what will happen in 2015. IIRC the Tories do tend to overperform in sub-general elections there. Thus I think there will be a Tory to Labour swing here, albeit a rather small one. Similarly, I doubt that there will be a 4% swing from Labour to the Tories in Battersea, despite the fact that there was one between 2010 and 2012.

    Putney prediction

    CON 50
    LAB 30
    LIB DEM 11
    Green 4
    UKIP 2
    Others 3

  11. Excluding postal votes, Roehampton and Putney Heath is the only Putney ward Labour carried in the GLA elections. It was also the only Putney ward to register a really significant Tory to Labour swing from 2008 to 2012 (one could also make a case for West Hill but the rest of the wards saw very small swings). Indeed as far as the Mayoral election was concerned, it was the only Putney ward to swing to Labour full stop. So I think Barnaby is right that Labour is still going to be very competitive there.

  12. I wouldn’t be that surprised to see a very small labour to Tory swing n Battersea. We saw numerous swings against the grain in 2010 and I expect something similar this time around.

  13. If it’s going to happen anywhere, it would be one of the likeliest candidates yes. I think Tory’s prediction for Putney is quite likely.

  14. Joe- agree re Battersea. I can see a swing Labour to Tory swing there of maybe 1- 2% there against the grain. I suspect there will be a few other other anomalous Labour to Tory swings in 2015. They seem to happen in most elections, even ones with fairly decisive national swings.

  15. Almost always. Even in 1997 Bethnal Green & Bow, and Bradford W, swung from Labour to the Conservatives, and I think there may have been one or 2 more where Labour was tactically squeezed.

  16. IN Dorset South the Tories hung on in 1997 and yet in 2001 and 2005 Labour took the seat. It just goes to show that any marginal can switch sides no matter who is in government. Watch out Ed Balls, that is what I say.

  17. Could you stop playing that particular broken record please. Trust me – your dream will not come true.

  18. Adjusted Prediction CON HOLD MAJ : 12%
    CON 45
    LAB 33
    LD 12
    UKIP 6
    GRN 4

  19. I have just made my first property purchase in this seat. ( East Putney Ward) To celebrate i will make a prediction.

    Con 52
    Lab 32
    Lib 11
    Ukip 3
    green 1
    Bnp 1

  20. Congratulations Joe.
    Must have knocked you back a bit ££ so well done.

  21. I’d be surprised if the BNP even stood a candidate here. Otherwise it’s fair enough. Perhaps the Tory majority will be very slightly smaller than that, but I’d have thought at least 18% which is close to what you have predicted.

  22. UKIP 3 looks a little low although I’ll concede it’s London. That the populist right managed 2.2% in 2010 though makes me think they’ll be up nearer 5% given their growth since then.

  23. Doubt it. Read Barnaby’s posts about the demographic changes in Roehampton. UKIP won’t have any base elsewhere in the seat.

  24. I think the C vote should edge up here aswell as Labour.
    The LD (17% last time) and BNP votes will surely retreat.

  25. Nick Clegg spent £1,050,000 on his family house in this seat.

  26. And here was me wondering why Clegg only wants houses worth more than £2 million to be subject to the mansion tax…

    I know someone in Putney who lives across the street from Clegg as it happens. Apparently he insists on a level of round the clock security which would put the US President to shame. To say that it seriously pisses off his neighbours would be the understatement of the year. I would not expect a very strong Lib Dem vote here.

  27. At least that’s a problem the residents of Sheffield Hallam don’t have.

    Clegg’s never there.

  28. lol. It’s many years since I’ve been to Clegg’s Putney local, the unusually-named Arab Boy – I wonder if he ever drops in for a glass of white wine & soda.

  29. On google maps there is one policeman outside the house.

    The current value is estimated at 1.7m, so getting close to the mansion tax.

  30. Only one policeman outside the house maybe, but the security services get paranoid about every delivery, tradesman and visitor who happens to be visiting someone in the street as a potential security risk. It causes a lot of annoying hassle for residents and their visitors. The Deputy PM should ideally make his main home somewhere much easier to secure.

  31. Nick Clegg is probably the sort who wouldn’t be seen dead in a pub unless it was for some type of photo opportunity.

  32. I wonder if long term the lb deems could get into secon here?

  33. Very doubtful. Roehampton will be enough to give Labour a reasonable second.

  34. I’ve always thought of this as one of the most boring seats in London. The LD vote is always between 10 and 20% no matter what’s happening elsewhere and minor parties always do badly. In other words nothing seems to dent the popularity of the main two parties.

  35. It’s a very sensible seat.

  36. I’d agree with Andy. This seat may well provide one of the most static results in the country next election. Con52, Lab31, Ld10, Ukip3, oth4,

  37. When it was held by Labour though before 2005, it was a Labour seat with no Labour councillors, which does make it a bit interesting.

  38. …and it was Labour from 1964 to 1979…

  39. yes, the construction of the Alton estate at a stroke turned this seat into a marginal in the early 60s. It wasn’t until 1987 that it became a clearly Tory-inclined seat (though of course that didn’t stop Labour from winning twice after that). Maybe some of it had already been built by 1959 – there was a swing to Labour against the national trend that year.

  40. The further swing to David Mellor in 1992 really seemed to confirm Putney’s direction of travel- people were talking about it as a potential Labour gain on Election Night (albeit as a long shot) and he increased his majority both numerically and in percentage terms.

    Justine Greening’s majority in 2010 was the highest Conservative majority in this constituency in any general election since 1935.

  41. Barnaby- remember also that the Liberals intervened in 1959, and appeared to take more votes off Sir Hugh Linstead than they did off Labour candidate, who was a certain Dick Taverne.

  42. *off the Labour candidate

  43. yes indeed. What a contrast between the rightist Taverne and Hugh Jenkins, the Tribunite who succeeded him & won in 1964. He was still alive at the time of the 2001 election, well into his nineties, when he spoke at Tony Colman’s adoption meeting. By this time however he was actually living in Kew, a few minutes’ walk from my house, where he ended his days.

  44. Incidentally Dick Taverne’s actual real name is Dick – it isn’t short for Richard.

  45. Off/topic:

    Official South African election results page:

    http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/

  46. “people were talking about it as a potential Labour gain on Election Night”

    Well I know the Labour candidate from 1992 quite well and she certainly never thought it was possible for Labour to win, so presumably the party nationally accepted this also. Who was talking about Putney as a potential gain?

    In 1997, when Labour had a good chance of getting the seat, Judith was unceremoniously dumped for someone the national party wanted as an MP (similar story in lots of seats Labour won in 97).

  47. I’m not sure that many people saw Putney as a Labour gain even in 1997. The seat had been trending Tory for several elections before that and I distinctly remember a lot of talk that Mellor’s majority might be reduced to 2 or 3 thousand – no less. 1997 and 2001 can now be seen as abnormal aberrations in a seat that is completing the cycle to safe Tory banker: probably now even in an exceptional Labour year.

  48. “Who was talking about Putney as a potential gain?”

    The media – UNS and all that.

    Though I think Labour were predicting over 20 gains in London in 1992.

  49. London was probably Labour’s best region in 1992. They gained 12 seats and same close in Hayes&Harklngton, Edmonton, Brentford&Isleworth, Erith&Crayford.

  50. I don’t think the Labour gain in this constituency came as that much of a surprise by the time polling day dawned in 1997. Although the Labour troops were mobilised in the must-win seats such as Brentford & Isleworth and Mitcham & Morden, the swing required to win Putney was well within what the polls were suggesting would happen & the Tories would have needed to keep the swing to well below the national average to hold on (a swing of slightly less than 8% was needed). There was some residual doubt both here and in Battersea (though the swing required there was very modest) but the polls were consistent & the wins came as no surprise once the initial results were in confirming the nationwide 10% swing to Labour. The gains in Enfield Southgate, Wimbledon & Brent N were more of a surprise of course, and really there was hardly a seat anywhere which was expected to be gained which in the end wasn’t.

1 2 3 7
Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)