Pudsey

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23637 (46.4%)
Labour: 19136 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 1926 (3.8%)
Green: 1539 (3%)
UKIP: 4689 (9.2%)
MAJORITY: 4501 (8.8%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of the Leeds council area.

Main population centres: Pudsey, Guiseley, Horsforth, Calverley.

Profile: A long spindly seat between Leeds and Bradford, stretching from Hawksworth Moor in the North to include the town of Guiseley (the site of Harry Ramsden`s first restaurant and still home to the largest fish and chip restaurant in the world), the Leeds suburb of Horsforth, the rural village of Calverley and the town of Pudsey itself to the South. The constituency is mostly an affluent residential area for Leeds and Bradford commuters.

Politics: Pudsey has been held by the Conservatives for most of its history, but often by narrow margins - it has never been a safe seat. It fell to Labour in the landslide election of 1997 and was regained by the Tories in 2010.


Current MP
STUART ANDREW (Conservative) Born 1971, Anglesey. Educated at Ysgol David Hughes. Former charity fundraiser. Leeds councillor 2003-2010. Contested Wrexham 1997. First elected as MP for Pudsey in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18874 (38%)
Lab: 17215 (35%)
LDem: 10224 (21%)
BNP: 1549 (3%)
Oth: 1221 (2%)
MAJ: 1659 (3%)
2005*
Con: 15391 (33%)
Lab: 21261 (46%)
LDem: 8551 (18%)
UKIP: 1241 (3%)
MAJ: 5870 (13%)
2001
Con: 16091 (36%)
Lab: 21717 (48%)
LDem: 6423 (14%)
UKIP: 944 (2%)
MAJ: 5626 (12%)
1997
Con: 19163 (36%)
Lab: 25370 (48%)
LDem: 7375 (14%)
MAJ: 6207 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STUART ANDREW (Conservative) See above.
JAMIE HANLEY (Labour) Born 1973, Leeds. Educated at Hull University. Solicitor. Contested Pudsey 2010.
RYK DOWNES (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Leeds councillor.
ROGER TATTERSALL (UKIP) Educated at Allerton Grange and Leeds University. IT professional and engineer.
CLAIRE ALLEN (Green) Born York. Educated at Liverpool University. Mental health worker and former teacher.
Links
Comments - 142 Responses on “Pudsey”
  1. i been trying to put a figure on the impact of public sector workers in seats such as this and have come up with an 0.5% con to lab for every 1% above nat ave. (still i have only looked at a couple of seats so i could be miles out)

  2. “Not sure whether I would count as public sector or not, there must be quite a few people in similar situations. Certainly very borderline. ”

    There are certainly some boderline situations. For ex, in recent years, ONS have moved Further Education Corporations and Sixth Form College Corporations employees in and then out of public employment.

  3. LAB GAIN MAJ : 9%
    LAB 41
    CON 32
    LD 14
    UKIP 9
    GRN 3
    OTH 1

  4. Neil spotted this:

    Seems like Guido Fawkes reported on an issue about Jessica Lee and rent-swapping in 2012:

    http://order-order.com/2012/10/24/exclusive-rent-swapper-tory-shares-with-fellow-mp-jessica-lee-and-stuart-andrews-cosy-rent-arrangement/

    worth repeating here merely for the fact that it shows Guido has his days of kicking Tory MPs too..

  5. The Conservatives carried Pudsey in Thursday’s local elections- a very interesting result.

    The Conservatives carried Guisely as well as Calverley (narrowly). The Lib Dems carried Horsforth with the Conservatives in second a couple of hundred ahead of Labour. Labour carried Pudsey. UKIP managed over a thousand votes in each ward, even liberal professional Horsforth.

    Con 8717 (32.2%)
    Lab 8173 (30.2%)
    UKIP 5530 (20.4%)
    LD 2887 (10.7%)
    Gre 1726 (6.4%)

  6. Incidentally, I would recommend people look at the results in provincial England. I don’t think there has been enough coverage of the elections outside London and it’s a very different ball game.

  7. It’s chaos, every council seems to have gone its own way. One thing that seems clear to me is there was a lot of UKIP ‘zombie’ votes. Non Voters who were inspired by Farage came out for the EU election and cast a UKIP vote in the locals. This probably helps explain why UKIP got 20% in basically every white ward in the country, regardless of the councillor, party or safety of the ward in question.

  8. I didn’t expect the Tories to carry this last Thursday although I don’t have any understanding of local politics.

  9. “This probably helps explain why UKIP got 20% in basically every white ward in the country, regardless of the councillor, party or safety of the ward in question.”

    What’s a “white ward”? Only a very small minority of wards nationwide are have a non-white population greater than that of whites. By this definition the vast majority of wards in London are white wards and in most of them UKIP got significantly less than 20%.

  10. Ashcroft Constituency Poll

    LAB: 36%
    CON: 36%
    UKIP: 15%
    LD: 9%
    GRN: 4%

  11. I do expect this one to be close as this poll suggests. I would however, as things stand, be surprised if Labour fails to take it, at least narrowly.

  12. Given how high up Pudsey is on Labour’s target list, that figure will come as a big disappointment to them.

  13. very poor for labour, but we know that seats further down, like Ipswich and Hastings show big labour leads…any schoolchild will know that different seats will have different swings…but, on average, the ashcroft poll shows a decent swing to labour which would translate into a narrow majority…i do expect some tightening but not enough for the tories to hold enough seats (293, say) even to be the largest party.

  14. The local election results were also disappointing for Labour here, so the poll comes as no surprise. It’s likely to go down to the wire.

  15. I am now leaning towards a narrow Tory hold here. If the Tories do hold, I should think it will be the lowest ranked seat on Labour’s target list not to fall- unless James Wharton carries off Stockton South which strikes me as another potential wildcard.

  16. There are other seats which are lower ranked (or rather higher ranked) on Labour’s target list which I think may well not go Labour, notably Morecambe, Stroud and Waveney. Thurrock is a wild card as well but may not be a Tory hold but a UKIP gain. If UKIP don’t gain it however it could well be they disproportionately hurt Labour and enable the Tories to hold on (the same could be true of Waveney)

  17. I can see your logic Pete but incline towards a Labour gain in all of those, although quite narrowly for the most part. A poll did put Labour 8% ahead in Stroud when voters were asked about their own specific constituency so that might end up being rather less close; I have a feeling that Neil Carmichael has been a less than entirely effective constituency MP despite his long experience of the constituency which he’s contested twice before he won it, as well as David Drew being a very strong challenger.

  18. My guess is that it’ll be very close but Labour will just edge it. One of those results where the loser almost deserves to win because they’ve done so well relatively speaking. But winning is all that matters in the end.

  19. tories hold thurrock? dream on buddy..!

    the fact that ashcroft is polling quite deep into the labour target seat category and still finding labour ahead in 9 out of 11 seats is worrying for those who think cameron can cling on…as i have seen loads of times, the winning party (largest party) will need probably at least 290 seats…with polls like this it’s difficult to see, (assuming the tories gain 10 from the lib dems, quite a big assumption i know) avoid losing fewer than 25 seats to labour.

  20. Thurrock is likely to be about 30% Tory, Labour and UKIP with the LDs on 4-5%. So it’s fair to say any of the three could win.

  21. I think Labour will just about scrape a win in Thurrock but are at major risk in 2020 either from the Conservatives or UKIP if they are still riding high which is possible.

  22. This seat like at least 20-30 others – one where the CON/UKIP/right wing split will hand LAB a win.

    Is it possible Nigel Farage will try a rapprochement between the Tories?? and UKIP & decide not to put candidates in seats where there’s a eurosceptic Tory??.

    He did this of course in Clacton and Rochester for GE2010 and has indicated in the past that he may do this nationally (in selected seats)

    Let’s look at 14 ‘eurosceptic’ CON MPs who defied a 3 line whip, in Oct2011, on a motion demanding an EU referendum in 2013 – so they are genuine eurosceptics (at least).

    They face losing their seats to LAB by small margins (predicted 4-10% because of a significant UKIP vote in the seat). These 14 MPs are:-

    ANDREW (PUDSEY)
    DE BOIS (ENFIELD N)
    BYLES (WARWICKSHIRE N)
    JACKSON (POSH)
    MCCARTNEY (COLNE VALLEY)
    MCCARTNEY (LINCOLN)
    MILLS (AMBER VALLEY)
    MOSLEY (CHESTER)
    NUTTALL (BURY N)
    OFFORD (HENDON)
    REES-MOGG (SOMERSET N EAST)
    REEVELL (DEWSBURY)
    VICKERS (CLEETHORPES)
    WALKER (WORCESTER

    So do you think Farage not fielding a UKIP candidate in these seats is:-

    a) very likely
    b) probable
    c) not very likely
    d) c’est impossible

    ty…deepthroat

  23. According to the local paper, the LibDems have selected local Councillor Ryk Downes as their candidate for 2015.

  24. Chris – info as requested…. I’ve done the votes year on year, so first there’s 2011, then 2012 and finally 2014

    Calverley Ward

    Labour – 3158, 2142, 2476
    Tories – 3568, 3436, 2670
    Lib D’s- 685, 218, 256
    UKIP – N/A, 433, 1242

    Guiseley

    Labour – 2853, 2526, 1871
    Tories – 3276, 2750, 2811
    Lib D’s – 778, 397, 389
    UKIP – N/A, N/A, 1444

    Horsforth

    Labour – 2213, 1381, 1644
    Tories – 2680, 1725, 1880
    Lib D’s – 2466, 2636, 2037
    UKIP – 421, 453, 1059

    Pudsey

    Labour – 3669, 3312, 2182
    Tories – 1987, 1147, 1389
    Lib D’s – 262, 320, 205
    UKIP – 636, 811, 1785

    In Calverley the Con vote share has dropped, as has Labours but not as badly.

    In Guiseley, UKIP clearly took from Labour, as they did in Pudsey.

    As for Horsforth, a swing away from the Lib Dems, but there’s no obvious destination for it, or an explanation for where UKIP got theirs from.

  25. The Pudsey majority is deceptive. The Labour vote isn’t rock solid anywhere despite returning councillors to Pudsey ward. Unless there’s likely to be split ticket voting as in Birmingham Edgbaston (and it’s been mentioned for Wirral West too).

    However, the Ashcroft poll late last year makes it a dead heat.

  26. Thanks Luke, that’s interesting. I’ll look at it later.

  27. I’d love to sit with 100 people in each of the constituencies in Leeds, who voted UKIP, and to ask them why, and who they previously voted for, and why.

    You’d probably find a ridiculous variation of answers.

  28. If you had Ashcroft’s money may be you could do!

  29. It is difficult to put together the numbers because I believe they were all for different seats. I have therefore put all the results together – Lab 29,427 and Con 29,319 which if correct shows what a tight seat this is.

    I have three things to say.

    1. It is easy to see why Ashcroft found a dead heat last time, certainly it seems unreasonable to say it is outside the MoE.
    2. As Anthony has said above Pudsey is the largest and the only area that favours Labour. However, the 2014 seats were particularly bad. Was that due to the seats that were fought or is it purely UKIP?
    3. Labour have been working so hard here which you would surely help lead to more votes. Of course I do not know how much effort the Tories have been able to put in to support Stuart Andrew.

    Labour are obviously campaigning everywhere but for me I think it will come down to the majority Labour hopes to get in Pudsey to be greater than Tory majorities in the other three areas. I started going into tactics, but I think they move away from this site.

  30. It’s clear that Labour’s vote share in Pudsey ward was impacted primarily by UKIP, though clearly there will have been a few Labour that stayed at home, and a few new voters who came out to vote UKIP.

    Pudsey ward is about as ideal as you’d get for UKIP really – there’s a mix of left behind council areas, there’s those who have voted Labour and Conservative before but aren’t particularly loyal voters and fancy letting someone else have a go.

    Somewhere like Beeston could go purple but for differing reasons. The ward boundaries are absolutely perfect, the Tories and Lib Dems have got no local presence what so ever, and the local Labour councillors, one in particular, are unpopular.

    Though I must add that feeling doesn’t apply to Hilary Benn, who most people are quite neutral on. Very few actually dislike him, though not many say ‘what a great bloke, look what he’s done for us’.

  31. Labour candidate has been entrenched in the area since last election.

    If the tories could only get 19k in 2010, you wonder how they can win again.

    Like in 2010, when the tories and punters were saying things like ellesmere port, copeland would fall, I expect disappoint in many tory seats north of northampton.

    Any tory with a majority of 5k is vulnerable. 2k impossible

    CERTAIN LABOUR GAIN.

  32. Darkarts,

    is your other name bob?

  33. I wonder if Darkarts is aware that the ASHCROFT poll in Nov14 had both parties at 36%? Perhaps I have not studied this seat as closely as he has but I have this down as a CON gain.

    Is there a chance he can give his reasons behind such a cocky prognosis?

    electionforecast.co.uk agree as their vote share prediction is
    CON 38%
    LAB 35%

    Bookies PPOWER & BET365 rate LAB 8/11 favourites – Ladbrokes have had constituency betting suspended for the last 3 days

  34. I think much depends on how strongly the Lib Dem vote holds up – it could in Horsforth, but I don’t see it happening elsewhere… and where that goes.

    And where the UKIP share – whatever that might be, comes from. In Guiseley and Pudsey it’s come from Labour, whereas in Calverley it was off the Cons.

    I’d stick my neck out and say a Tory hold, reasonably confidently.

    Contrary to popular belief, and the lines pushed out by the media, in many areas UKIP is hitting Labour far harder. The issue is that in these areas Labour are picking up Lib Dem votes, and their majorities are so big the impact is negligible.

    I’d expect stronger UKIP showings in the working class seats of Leeds West, East, Central and also Pudsey, rather than Elmet & Rothwell, or Harrogate & Knaresborough.

  35. My confidence is simple.

  36. Tories beat labour by 10 pts in 2010.

    Labour vote has gone up. Tories down.

    So if you win England by 10 yet win here with under 2k majority how do you expect to hold on??

    Its not defying physics. But its defying probability.

    On betting if 10 tories walk in and bet 200 at evens and three labour bet 50 at evens tories will be favourites. Doesn’t make it fact.

    Ellesmere port in 2010 you got even money on labour hold. Lol

  37. Darkarts – UKIP will take chunks out of Labour in Pudsey ward particularly, and also in Guiseley.

    Labour taking this wouldn’t surprise me as much as it would taking Elmet & Rothwell, where I’d put my house on a Tory hold, but I still think it’s unlikely.

  38. I live in Horsforth … It is historically a Lib Dem/Tory council fight with the Lib Dems squeezing the Labour vote… Labour will be fairly happy with their performance in this ward in 2014 against a long-standing Lib Dem councillor. Lib Dem votes will go more to Labour than Tory here in the general election.
    Pudsey is an unusual place, fiercely independent and distrustful of Leeds. An Independent won here for many years. I am not surprised at the “plague on all your houses” UKIP vote here. It will mainly go back to the main parties next month in the GE, I expect, but they may be campaigning for the council seat – there is no sign whatsoever of a UKIP campaign in Horsforth but Labour are trying much harder than last time. The Lib Dems will try and win the Horsforth council seat, but no more… I think the key thing here in Pudsey is where the residual UKIP vote that did not exist in 2010 comes from. Looking at the figures Luke Senior has kindly supplied it seems to be coming from different places in different wards, with councillor incumbency and variable intensity of Labour campaigning confusing the issue, probably

  39. I predict Labour will win here… They had quite big majorities up to 2005 and the boundary changes were relatively minor. I think the Lib Dem vote will be squeezed further compared to Ashcroft and will break to Labour, and the same will probably happen to the UKIP vote (which has mainly come from Labour/LD in local elections at least)

  40. Stuart Andrew was of course a Labour member and Cllr for years, as much as he’s tried to erase it from any biographical details online.

  41. Ashcroft has this seat as a dead heat. If Labour get more votes than the Tories nationally, personally l think they’ll end up squeaking home here, but it still looks extremely close.

  42. And they were only 3% ahead in 2010. It should be a fairly straightforward Labour gain if they want to win the election.

  43. Junk poll.

    Not a chance can labours vote go up to 35% nationally and they dont take seats in the 30-50 territory.

  44. If I had to put money on the closest seat in the election (which seems silly as there are 650 of them) I would put it on Pudsey. Both dead heats tend to be roughly what I expect it to be like. I live in Morley just around the corner from this seat and Labour are working particularly hard for this seat.

  45. Fascinating : Ashcroft continues to show a dead heat with the “also runs” being remorselessly squeezed since October (UKIP -7, Lib Dem – 4).

    This could be the only seat with a Conservative majority of less than 4% to be retained,

  46. Con hold, majority 200.

  47. Never expected this to be the most knife edge seat of the entire election (or looking that way).

  48. Well im not suprised. If pushed very hard I would err just to a Lab gain though.

  49. Closest finish: my vote goes to HARROW EAST.

  50. I have moving back to Con hold here due to the lacklustre Labour campaign…. In 2010 I remember thinking “don’t Labour want to hold this seat???” The thing they totally failed to do then was put up sufficient posters, not even on Horsforth Broadway, which is part of the Leeds ring road (and therefore of regional significance) and runs partly through a council estate heavily squeezed by the Lib Dems in local elections. Once upon a time the Lib Dems and Labour had about 30 poster sites in this stretch between them, and many more in the back roads of the estate.

    Sure enough, in 2010 they lost the seat of an 8% swing to the Tories, and allowed the Lib Dem vote to increase 3% in a marginal seat where the Lib Dems had no chance… This time they have to make sure that the Lib Dem vote is driven as low as possible, and that it goes to Labour not UKIP. Plastering the council estates with posters is absolutely key to this.. I thought Labour were getting their act together over Easter when a smattering of posters appeared in Horsforth, but since then they have not been added to, even on the major roads…They delivered plenty of leaflets in the long campaign but since parliament dissolved they have disappeared in Horsforth and all I have received is a generic leaflet delivered with the pizza adverts and pretty scrunched up in the process…

    If the Pudsey Labour party want to see what to do they should drive down Killinghall Rd in Bradford E, where dozens of Labour posters have suddenly appeared, completely swamping the Lib Dem “winning here” ones. But will this effort in Bradford E deliver a pyrrhic victory that is virtually certain anyway, while leaving ultramarginal Pudsey in Tory hands??

    well, I was considering voting Labour here for the first time in my life, but at this rate I may just abstain!

    Andrew

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