Pudsey

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23637 (46.4%)
Labour: 19136 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 1926 (3.8%)
Green: 1539 (3%)
UKIP: 4689 (9.2%)
MAJORITY: 4501 (8.8%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of the Leeds council area.

Main population centres: Pudsey, Guiseley, Horsforth, Calverley.

Profile: A long spindly seat between Leeds and Bradford, stretching from Hawksworth Moor in the North to include the town of Guiseley (the site of Harry Ramsden`s first restaurant and still home to the largest fish and chip restaurant in the world), the Leeds suburb of Horsforth, the rural village of Calverley and the town of Pudsey itself to the South. The constituency is mostly an affluent residential area for Leeds and Bradford commuters.

Politics: Pudsey has been held by the Conservatives for most of its history, but often by narrow margins - it has never been a safe seat. It fell to Labour in the landslide election of 1997 and was regained by the Tories in 2010.


Current MP
STUART ANDREW (Conservative) Born 1971, Anglesey. Educated at Ysgol David Hughes. Former charity fundraiser. Leeds councillor 2003-2010. Contested Wrexham 1997. First elected as MP for Pudsey in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18874 (38%)
Lab: 17215 (35%)
LDem: 10224 (21%)
BNP: 1549 (3%)
Oth: 1221 (2%)
MAJ: 1659 (3%)
2005*
Con: 15391 (33%)
Lab: 21261 (46%)
LDem: 8551 (18%)
UKIP: 1241 (3%)
MAJ: 5870 (13%)
2001
Con: 16091 (36%)
Lab: 21717 (48%)
LDem: 6423 (14%)
UKIP: 944 (2%)
MAJ: 5626 (12%)
1997
Con: 19163 (36%)
Lab: 25370 (48%)
LDem: 7375 (14%)
MAJ: 6207 (12%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STUART ANDREW (Conservative) See above.
JAMIE HANLEY (Labour) Born 1973, Leeds. Educated at Hull University. Solicitor. Contested Pudsey 2010.
RYK DOWNES (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Leeds councillor.
ROGER TATTERSALL (UKIP) Educated at Allerton Grange and Leeds University. IT professional and engineer.
CLAIRE ALLEN (Green) Born York. Educated at Liverpool University. Mental health worker and former teacher.
Links
Comments - 142 Responses on “Pudsey”
  1. I think you can file Pudsey under the same heading as Gedling, Broxstowe, and the Wirrals: middle-class, edge of conurbation seats which have moved increasingly towards Labour in recent years. I wonder what the percentage of public sector workers living in this constituency is?

    Labour are clearly favourites to gain this in 2015.

  2. I have never been to this constituency. I get the impression – so please correct me if I’m wrong – that Labour is very heavily reliant on the town of Pudsey itself, and therefore depends on getting its vote out there. I’m sure there are other areas such as Guiseley where there are Labour voters, but the rest of the seat seems to be consistently more Tory than Pudsey itself

  3. This is a seat where the Tories need all of the UKIP and BNP vote to move over to them if they are to hold on.

  4. ‘I think you can file Pudsey under the same heading as Gedling, Broxstowe, and the Wirrals: middle-class, edge of conurbation seats which have moved increasingly towards Labour in recent years’

    It used to be even more Tory that the seats you mention – maybe not Wirral West – but in the 1970s and 80s – when the left-leaning Giles Shaw was MP – it was the Liberals who were the main challengers to the Tories

    The Tories have never had great majorities here though

  5. The 1945 candidate here (the seat was Pudsey & Otley at the time) was a Major Denis Healey. A rare survivor out of those who were candidates in that election. He lost by about 1,000.

  6. Good swing in 2010 though unlike most of the rest.

  7. IIRC Denis Healey has said that he would have won in 1945 had it not been for the difficulty of transporting poor and/or elderly voters to the polling stations.

  8. Barnaby: you’re right- Labour probably carried the Pudsey ward by about 1500 in 2010. The Tories led elsewhere but not by all that much. Labour must have done well among middle-class voters to be just 3000 behind outside Pudsey itself.

  9. ‘I think you can file Pudsey under the same heading as Gedling, Broxstowe, and the Wirrals: middle-class, edge of conurbation seats which have moved increasingly towards Labour in recent years. I wonder what the percentage of public sector workers living in this constituency is?’

    I dont think you can get a precise measure – but a rough estimate from the 2011 census can be had by adding up those working in health/social services, education and public admin/social security/defence sectors.

    On that basis I get 30.3% of those in employment for Pudsey – compared to UK average of 28.2% – so higher than typical – but not massively. Certainly not like Birmingham Edgbaston – another seat trending Labour- where the figure was 38.8% – annoying really – the evidence was there even before 2010 for Labour to hold on and to take advantage of the good odds!

  10. Interesting- thanks for that, David. Could I ask what the figures are for the two Wirral seats? Is there a link to where you found the information?

    You are right to raise Edgbaston as another of those middle-class suburban seats in which the Tories now struggle. You will notice that in pretty much all the seats mentioned the Conservatives are stuck in the late 30s.

  11. how much is down to labours move to the right i.e a lot more pro middle class and much is it Demographics? meaning how would a more left wing labour party do in this type of seat?

  12. It probably wasn’t a very representative sample, but I recall Frank Skinner interviewing some Pudsey residents on election night 1997 and almost none of them expressed enthusiasm for Labour.

  13. You can check whether that’s correct on my YouTube election uploads: the username is ajs41. I can’t immediately recall Skinner being in Pudsey in 1997.

  14. Thanks; the moment I was referring to occurs during part 34. It was a dance event at the local town hall. He spoke to less people than I thought – just two couples. The result of this *ahem* opinion poll was Conservatives – 75%, Labour – 25%. 😀

  15. ‘Interesting- thanks for that, David. Could I ask what the figures are for the two Wirral seats? Is there a link to where you found the information?

    You are right to raise Edgbaston as another of those middle-class suburban seats in which the Tories now struggle. You will notice that in pretty much all the seats mentioned the Conservatives are stuck in the late 30s’.

    Wirral West is much higher than average – one of the highest at 37.8% – I wonder if the tag ‘affluent public sector’ would be an appropriate label for that seat now. Wirral South is also higher than average at 33.5%. When I said the UK average was 28.2% – I should have said England/Wales as the Scottish census data on industry of employment isn’t out yet.

    Sheffield Hallam has the highest percentage of people working in education / health / public admin and defence of all seats in England Wales at 43.4%. Cardiff North was second at 40.8%. – a seat that was a whisker away from being a very impressive Labour hold in 2010. At first sight Richmond Yorkshire is also suprisingly high at 39.5% – presumably because of many defence related jobs (Gosport and Dorset South are other conservative seats in this category).

    At the other end of the scale, those seats with the lowest proportions are mostly in London and practically all in the South. I wonder how much that is to do with public sector wages not being enough to live in central London? (lowest seats are Chelsea and Fulham, Kensington, Westminster North, Cities of London and Westminster, Poplar and Limehouse, Battersea).

    If interested in the data – you can download a search from the NOMIS website – which is maintained by the Office of National Statistics – its an advanced query – where you search for industry of employment (2011) by parliamentary constituency – a good wealth of data to review in advance of the next election!

  16. 37.8%? Goodness me. No wonder Wirral West is trending Labour.

  17. And yes, I very much agree with the label ‘affluent public sector’. One could also apply it to Hallam, Wirral South, Cardiff North, Edgbaston, Sefton Central etc. As class becomes a less effective predictor of voting behaviour, alternative shorthand like this will become more and more useful.

  18. It will be interesting to see the electoral effect among the affluent public sector when the Eds introduce public sector pay cuts in 2017-18.

    Or perhaps there will only be one Ed in government by then.

  19. Using the Annual Population Survey, the constituencies with the highest % of public employment out of the total people in employment are

    1) Cardiff West 39.6%
    2) Na h-Eileanan An Iar 39.5%
    3) Gower 38.8%
    4) Cardiff North 38.2%
    4) Pontrypridd 38.2%
    6) NE Fife 38%
    6) Ceredigion 38%
    8) Birmingham Northfield 36.9%
    8) Glasgow SW 36.9%
    10) Birmingham Edgabasto 36.7%

    Cardiff Central, Sheffield Central, South Cambridgeshire, Oxford East, Carshalton and Wallington, Swansea East, Cambridge, Exeter, Swansea West and Sedgefield follow.

    At the other end, we find Bosworth (10.8%) followed by Chelsea & Fulham, Northampton North, Poplar & Limehouse, Wellingborough, Battarsea, Somerset & Frome, Kensington, Runnymede, Faversham and Mid Kent, Saffron Walden and Burton.

    However, the Annual Population Survey overestimates public employment compared to other sources. A possible reason is that it is based on the replies to a question and some people hired by a contractor to work on public sector premises may reply “public sector” even if they are not actually part of it using a restrictive definition.
    Some may argue that their jobs depend from the state/authority/university anyway even if they are not directly hired by them.
    Some of them are not particularly affluent (for ex cleaners) though.

  20. Carshalton & wallington is a surprising one. Hospital workers (St Helier) would account for some of those I suppose.
    Cardiff North was one of those I bet on a Labour hold with odds of 5/1 which was very good value as it turned out

  21. how is the incidence of fixed term contracts on public employment compared to permanent contracts? I guess they are widespread in school sector and maybe also NHS while they are probably less common in local authority and government department staffs

  22. I agree with Tory about the label ‘affluent public sector’ to describe the majority of these areas, but the likes of Sedgefield and the Swansea seats do not really fit this description at all. Generally low-paid workers in hospitals/councils/DVLA are obviously not the same demographic as the majority of Hallam and Cardiff North residents.

  23. That list does show the dominance of the public sector in the Welsh economy with 6 of the top 11 being Welsh constituencies.

    All the lowest public sector constituencies are in England.

    Which is the lowest Welsh and Scottish public sector constituency and how many English constituencies are lower than them?

  24. Glasgow Central 14.7% (608th overall)
    Banff & Buchan 16.4% (583th)
    North Ayrshire & Arran 18.6% (521th)
    Aberdeen South 19.3% (503th)
    Aberdeen North 20.1% (476th)

    Aberavon 20.9% (444th)
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd 21.3% (427)
    Alyn and Deeside 22.5% (367)
    Montgomeryshire 23.2% (337)

    20 Welsh constituencies are in the top 100
    Wrexham 23.3%

  25. Glasgow Central looks odd – lots of students, yuppies and shop/bar workers at a guess?

    But I’m not surprised to see the oil and fishing areas being low.

    Likewise I don’t know why Aberavon is so much less than the other Valleys constituencies.

    Dwyfor and Montgomeryshire are both very rural while Alyn is still very industrial.

  26. T Dan Smith- ‘I agree with Tory about the label ‘affluent public sector’ to describe the majority of these areas, but the likes of Sedgefield and the Swansea seats do not really fit this description at all. Generally low-paid workers in hospitals/councils/DVLA are obviously not the same demographic as the majority of Hallam and Cardiff North residents.’

    Absolutely- I agree. I wouldn’t include Swansea and Sedgefield either- nor the Birmingham seats other than Edgbaston. But somewhere like North East Fife would undoubtedly be a good example of one.

  27. “Glasgow Central looks odd – lots of students, yuppies and shop/bar workers at a guess?”

    A considerable proportion of Asians and Asians are not much employed in the public sector? I don’t know public employment stats by ethnicity.

    But as a stereotype, I think of the black nurses (so dear to Diane Abbott) but I don’t picture many Muslims in that types of jobs (also because public employment is much more female than average)

  28. That’s a good point and would also partly explain Poplar’s low number (yuppies being the other partial explanation there).

    What is the public sector employment in other constituencies with high numbers of Muslims?

  29. Swansea has the DVLA so would have a greater proportion of public sector lower middle class compared with the hospital and university constituencies which would have higher amounts of professional middle and working class public sector workers.

  30. Barnaby

    IIRC Pudsey ward (or Pudsey South as it was) has been Labour constinuously since the 1970s with only a single exception (1982 I think).

    Pudsey was originally a small mill town whereas the rest of the constituency is mostly middle class Leeds suburbia.

    But electorally significantly without the students of Leeds NW and the non-whites of Leeds NE.

  31. “Likewise I don’t know why Aberavon is so much less than the other Valleys constituencies.”

    Probably the Port Talbot steel complex – which has a very uncertain future.

  32. Not sure whether I would count as public sector or not, there must be quite a few people in similar situations. Certainly very borderline. 

    (Paid PhD student with some teaching responsibilities)

  33. As the Tory share fell 7-8% here in 1997, a better than average result (although Labour did extremely well with a 13% swing, mostly from the LDs)
    but then fell in 2005,

    this means the C share is down about the national average against 1992 here.

    I know Calverley is usually Tory and semi rural but I’ve not been there, alhough I knew a firm there.

    I’m not sure how low the LD vote would go here – at a guess about halved.

  34. Wasn’t Peter Bone the Tory candidate in 1997? Whoever it was did a good job at keeping the fall to 7-8%.

    Pete will correct me if I’m wrong but I reckon the Conservatives carried Calverley by 800-1000 in 2010 so it’s not analogous to somewhere like Harewood for example. The Conservatives seem to do better there in local elections- perhaps there is an element of differential turnout. I daresay Calverley will have been considerably more Conservative before 1997.

  35. It was Peter Bone – A fall that small is certainly a very good result for the time
    but he still had the standard fare 13% against in a marginal – the Lib Dem vote collapsed.

    The Con share did stagnate though and drift down a bit more in 2005.

    I like Peter Bone, He calls a spade a shovel.

  36. I hope he doesn’t.

    A spade and a shovel are different things.

    One is used for digging and the other for err shovelling.

    For example you would be advised to use a shovel rather than a spade for clearing snow.

  37. Peter Bone for PM!

  38. “Pete will correct me if I’m wrong but I reckon the Conservatives carried Calverley by 800-1000 in 2010 so it’s not analogous to somewhere like Harewood for example.”

    I won’t correct you. I have the Conservative lead as just over 800 in that ward. It would have been too close to call in all three elections from 1997-2005 (It was called Pudsey North then, but the boundaries were virtually identical)

  39. Pete

    There’s a comment from me on the Leeds NE page which might interest you.

  40. I have replied

  41. Pete- when it is convenient for you, I was wondering if you could possibly do the same for Pudsey as you did for Leeds NE? I know you receive a lot of these requests and that your time is finite but the data is absolutely fascinating.

  42. Con lead over Labour

    1992
    Aireborough 15%
    Horsforth 31% (LDs a close-ish 2nd)
    Pudsey N 18%
    Pudsey S – 9%

    1997
    Aireborough -10%
    Horsforth -4%
    Pudsey N -1%
    Pudsey S – 35%

    2001
    Aireborough -16%
    Horsforth -4%
    Pudsey N +2%
    Pudsey S – 34%

    2005
    Aireborough -17%
    Horsforth -2%
    Pudsey N 0%
    Pudsey S – 34%

    2010
    Guiseley & Rawddon 11%
    Horsforth 8%
    Calverley & Farsley 7%
    Pudsey -14%

  43. Some interesting data on public sector employment by constituency in this thread. I wonder which London seats have the highest rates? Seats like Lewisham West and Hornsey and Wood Green must be among them. Oxford East and Exeter being the clear winners in the rest of the south is certainly no surprise. I’d have thought Brighton Pavilion would have quite high rates as well.

  44. In London the latest Annual Population Survey (October 2011 to September 2012) gives

    Carshalton and Wallington 35.8%
    Chingford and Woodford Green 33.0%
    Erith and Thamesmead 31.0%
    Dagenham and Rainham 30.7%
    Eltham 28.4%

    ….
    Hornsey is in the top 5 in term of absolute numbers but as overall employment is higher than some of the above areas, the public sector weights less (25.2%). Lewisham East is at 24.3%

    Compared to previous years, Enfield North collapsed. Erith and Thamesmead raised from nothing (and Old Bexley went in free fall)

  45. All places where the Tories hit the buffers in 2010 in terms of swing.
    One or two of those are surprising.

  46. I find all five of them surprising

  47. The first thing I thought was that they looked like constituencies with low property prices, at least by London standards.

    Which constituency in the north-west (Middlesex) quadrant of London is the highest?

    I’ll have a guess at Ealing North.

  48. Re the Pudsey splits it looks like the swings were bigger in 2010 at the more working class northern and southern wards rather than the more middle class middle two.

    Guisely & Rawdon perhaps acting like the similar Shipley towns and Pudsey maybe like Morley.

  49. Yes, I noticed that too, Richard- no doubt indicative of Labour’s problems with the C2s and the Tories’ failure to make much headway with the ABC1s. The long-term decline of the Tory position relative to Labour is especially striking in Horsforth.

  50. Maybe the ONS should adjust its sample for the Labour Force Survey! 🙂

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