Plymouth Moor View

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16020 (37.6%)
Labour: 14994 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 1265 (3%)
Green: 1023 (2.4%)
UKIP: 9152 (21.5%)
TUSC: 152 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1026 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Devon. Part of the Plymouth council area.

Main population centres: Plymouth.

Profile: A maritime seat in Devon. Plymouth is home to the largest naval base in Europe and while the local economy is no longer dominated by the naval base, maritime industries remain important with electronics, engineering and boat building having primary roles. Plymouth Moor View is the northern part of the city and the more working class, containing many council housing developments to the north of the city.

Politics: Plymouth Moor View is the successor to Plymouth Devonport, renamed in 2010 after boundary changes removed the Devonport council ward and the naval base within it. As such it has had several distinguished past MPs - Leslie Hore-Belisha, Michael Foot and David Owen. David Owen stood down in 1992, by that time an Independent MP, and between 1992 and 2015 the seat was held by Labour. UKIP candidates have done well in both the Plymouth seats, holding their deposits in 2005 and 2010 even before their 2015 breakthrough.


Current MP
JOHNNY MERCER (Conservative) Born Kent. Educated at Sandhurst. Former army officer. First elected as MP for Plymouth Moor View in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13845 (33%)
Lab: 15433 (37%)
LDem: 7016 (17%)
UKIP: 3188 (8%)
Oth: 2044 (5%)
MAJ: 1588 (4%)
2005*
Con: 10509 (25%)
Lab: 18612 (44%)
LDem: 8000 (19%)
UKIP: 3324 (8%)
Oth: 1568 (4%)
MAJ: 8103 (19%)
2001
Con: 11289 (27%)
Lab: 24322 (58%)
LDem: 4513 (11%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 637 (2%)
MAJ: 13033 (31%)
1997
Con: 12562 (24%)
Lab: 31629 (61%)
LDem: 5570 (11%)
Oth: 716 (1%)
MAJ: 19067 (37%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Plymouth, Devonport

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JOHNNY MERCER (Conservative) Born Kent. Educated at Sandhurst. Former army officer.
ALISON SEABECK (Labour) Born 1954, Dagenham, daughter of former MP Michael Ward. Educated at Harold Hill Grammar School and North East London Polytechnic. MP for Plymouth Devonport 2005 to 2015. Partner of Nick Raynsford MP.
STUART BONAR (Liberal Democrat) Public affairs advisor. Contested Plymouth Moor View 2010.
PENNY MILLS (UKIP)
BEN OSBORN (Green) Sound designer and composer.
LOUISE PARKER (TUSC) Jazz singer and former nurse.
Links
Comments - 173 Responses on “Plymouth Moor View”
  1. To me the Ashcroft result here (Plymouth generally) serves the Tories right for their kicking in the teeth of the Royal Navy.. That is the danger they face as well in the Portsmouth seats (incl. Gosport)

  2. Stuart Bonar is the LibDem PPC for Plymouth Moor View

    Tweeted:

    Stuart Bonar @StuartBonar · 13m13 minutes ago

    Proud to be the new Lib Dem parliamentary candidate for Plymouth Moor View, in my home city. Mum & Dad promise to vote for me 🙂

  3. Not too many others will, though.

  4. 🙂

  5. Labour Hold. 5,000 maj.

  6. *Facepalm*

  7. This is a disaster for Labour.

  8. Tories gain Plymouth Moor View by 1,026 votes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000879

  9. Another dreadful loss for Labour:

    Con 16,020 37.6%
    Lab 14,994 35.2%
    UKIP 9,152 21.5%
    LDem 1,265 3.0%
    Green 1,023 2.4%
    Other 152 0.4%

    Majority 1,026 : Swing 3.1%

  10. Andrea now we know why this seat had shadow cabinet visitors this week and it wasn’t ukip.

  11. A comparison of the two Plymouth and the Exeter results illustrates Labour’s wwc disaster.

    A similar situation happened in the two Southampton seats.

    Labour is now paying the penalty for assuming that the wwc would remain loyal even whilst it disregarded them in favour of guardianistas and ethnic minorities.

  12. Losing this, alongside a handful of others in England and Wales (Scotland is another kettle of fish) is inexcusable.

  13. Richard does put it in a nutshell.
    I think I would say an openly defiant message about the debt record of the previous Labour Government and
    a lack of connection with those who work in or run businesses – even small business.

    I do feel rather sorry for Alison Seabeck though who does represent the more sensible and pragmatic strand of Labour though.
    For the Tories overall, a great night.

  14. And some opposition to us in the SW is good but I won’t complain about extra seats when it’s still a narrow majority.

  15. I would also add I have come across many people from ethnic minorities in London who have excellent Conservative and business values and feel sure we’re increasing our vote in these groups – but at the same time gradually losing the London battle against Labour by not keeping parity.
    So I didn’t quite agree with that bit although I think it refers to Labour rather assuming those votes are theirs regardless of other policy or record (crudely).

  16. th8s seat was one of my outlandish bets that came in conservative at 8/1

    could not quite believe it myself.

    my theory that the local enterprise deal by the government having a significant effect here seems to be correct

  17. Is that so?
    Perhaps Labour didn’t think they were under threat here, because they reduced the Tory lead in Plymouth Sutton. It seems both main parties could have quite easily won both seats or neither, or one each.

  18. Awful that Labour failed to win this. No clearer result of how Labour failed with the WWC in the south. However Johnny Mercer was a perfect candidate for this maritime seat, certainly he gave an impressive maiden speech.

    I wonder if the Tories would have won David Owens old seat of Devonport? It did not contain the Eggbuckland until 1997 so labour may have just held on there.

  19. In a historical context, this was IMO the Tories’ best result of the election.

    The last time the Tories won all the parliamentary seats in Plymouth was 49 years ago. In 1966, David Owen gained Plymouth Sutton from the Tories and from that date until 2015 at least one other Plymouth seat was held by Labour or the SDP.

  20. H Hemmelig, this seat is surely trumped by Gower, which had been in the Labour column for over a century until a month ago…

  21. Arguably yes, though at least there are some very nice parts of Gower. The idea of a Tory representing the universally grim side of Plymouth would have been considered ridiculous even in a landslide year like 1983.

  22. I felt a bit sorry for Alison Seabeck as she is not an annoying politically correct Metropolitan type,
    but more pragmatic and sensible.

    It must have been a shock.

  23. Is the explanation for the seat changing hands likely to be as simple as this is one of the constituencies where UKIP hurt Labour more than the Tories?

  24. It could be.
    Or perhaps Labour didn’t see themselves at risk.
    Somebody further up referred to some re-generation in the area.

  25. Yes 9,000 for UKIP – that is one of the higher votes but not unexpected.
    Although I think quite a lot of that is interchangeable with the LD vote.

  26. Ben Bradshaw was canvassing here, making quite a long trip from his own constituency, so probably a threat was seen, even if some thought wrongly it came from UKIP rather than the Tories.

  27. I never thought UKIP would win here and thought Labour would push their majority up to around 4,000

  28. Not many Lab/Con marginals have a higher white British percentage than this one. That may have been one of the main factors why they lost.

  29. Most of the strong UKIP areas have low levels of immigration. Fear of the unknown I suppose.

  30. Totally logical. If you see something going on elsewhere that you don’t approve of, it’s perfectly understandable why you wouldn’t wait for it to happen in your area before protesting about it.

  31. The Green/TUSC vote was larger than the majority.

    Not taking away from what was an impressive gain, however.

    I see the new MP here modelled in a shower for Dove in a TV commercial recently. That must be a first for a new Member!

  32. The beautiful Mhairi Black had an extensive modelling career before entering Parliament.

  33. The commitment to spending on defence announced today might help in seats like this come 2020.

  34. “The beautiful Mhairi Black had an extensive modelling career before entering Parliament.”

    LOL.

    I believe Johnny Mercer’s appearance in the Dove advert is only in the US.

  35. ‘I felt a bit sorry for Alison Seabeck as she is not an annoying politically correct Metropolitan type’

    She’s not. I always thought she was quire a good fit for this seat

    That Labour can’t win what is arguably the grimmest seat in the entire South West, shows what a dire srate they are in

  36. An investigation into alleged over-spending by the Tories in this seat (and Labour next door).

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-33444137

  37. Neil – yes, Andrew Neil just showed it on the BBC Daily Politics.

    Esther McVey also had more risqué photos taken before she was an MP.

  38. I saw the ad online and it was hardly racy or risqué. Just a brief closeup of him lathering his upper body with whatever Dove product was being advertised. Not sure why some reports are getting all hot and bothered. The Daily Mail’s headline made it seem more than it really was.

  39. I suppose it’s just not something an MP would do.

    Or rather in the past. After all, we’ve had MPs in the Jungle and on ITV’s Splash! In the last Parliament.

  40. Useless fact- The Lib Dem candidate here Stuart Bonar appeared on Fifteen To One and won his episode with a score of 112- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6zO-Gqq4Q0

  41. That was dramatic. This is what I love about local politics. It can make a huge difference to people’s lives and it can feel like an episode house of cards.

  42. This might help to explain the holds – and gains – for the Tories:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy/crowded-unaffordable-london-giving-old-overspill-towns-new-lease/

    C2s moving out of expensive London to Harlow is well known, but this article also mentions Swindon & Plymouth.

    (Equally, we wait to see whether any of the London benefit claimants moving or being sent out/up to Wolvs, Birmingham etc by some London boroughs due to the new Cap or non-availability of stock will affect those seats. Although many won’t be registered or vote.)

  43. ” I could go on”

    You frequently do.

  44. CE – I assume you just mean the ward?

    Whilst that’s true, the Tories were closer to winning Brooklands than the City Centre ward. Indeed, I think in 2007 or 2008 they only missed Brooklands by 100 votes, but unfortunately the Manc Cons decided to target City Centre and so won neither.

    As I’ve pointed out previously, the only polling district the Tories win in Liverpool is the CBD one, but the turnout is so low there (4% – 6%) that it’s never going to result in them wining that ward. The polling station locations were designed years ago before the influx of apartment dwellers. Plus unlike Manc’s city centre ward, Liverpool’s central ward includes housing estates in parts of Vauxhall and L8 which vote 80% Labour.

  45. YouGove have the Conservatives marginally ahead for the Conservatives; but it is definitely within reach for Labour.

  46. The UKIP Group of 3 Cllrs have defected to the Conservatives in Plymouth.

  47. Presumably in anticipation of the BNP-ification of what remains of UKIP when Anne-Marie Waters takes over?

  48. AMW is a lot more dangerous than the BNP. She’s NOT anti-semitic, anti-LGBT, anti-black, anti-Asian, and her background is with Humanist organisations rather than fascist organisations… She would take UKIP in more of a Marine Le Pen direction, which is much more dangerous, because that has a much higher ceiling than BNP-style politics in the UK.

    Under the right (wrong) circumstances, AMW could lead UKIP to quite a lot of success and influence Britain in a terrible direction, precisely because her secular and liberal (in some respects) brand of politics fits in with the attitude of a lot of Britons today, who are very anti-Islam but otherwise not very socially conservative or even outright socially liberal.

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