Peterborough
2015 Result:
Conservative: 18684 (39.7%)
Labour: 16759 (35.6%)
Lib Dem: 1774 (3.8%)
Green: 1218 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7485 (15.9%)
Liberal: 639 (1.4%)
Independent: 516 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1925 (4.1%)
Category: Marginal Conservative seat
Geography: Eastern, Cambridgeshire. Part of the Peterborough council area.
Main population centres: Peterborough, Eye, Thorney.
Profile: Peterborough was a victorian industrial town that has grown massively since the 1970s after being designated as a newtown in 1967. It is an economically successful city with strong service and distribution industries on the back of good transport links (there are intercity trains to London and it sits just off the A1(M)). It is an ethnically diverse city - there is a significant Asian Muslim population, but also many Italian immigrants (due to recruitment for the brickmaking industry in the 1950s) and more recent Eastern European immigration. The seat also contains an area of Fenland to the east including the villages of Thorney and Eye.
Politics: A key marginal between the Conservatives and Labour, Peterborough fell to Labour in 1997 and was regained by the Conservatives in 2005.
| Con: | 18133 (40%) |
| Lab: | 13272 (30%) |
| LDem: | 8816 (20%) |
| UKIP: | 3007 (7%) |
| Oth: | 1699 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 4861 (11%) |
| Con: | 17364 (42%) |
| Lab: | 14624 (35%) |
| LDem: | 6876 (17%) |
| UKIP: | 1242 (3%) |
| Oth: | 1098 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 2740 (7%) |
| Con: | 15121 (38%) |
| Lab: | 17975 (45%) |
| LDem: | 5761 (14%) |
| UKIP: | 955 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 2854 (7%) |
| Con: | 17042 (35%) |
| Lab: | 24365 (50%) |
| LDem: | 5170 (11%) |
| Oth: | 926 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 7323 (15%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
This forum seems to have died a death.
TCTC but incumbent Lab slightly favoured
Tories and Brexit Party vote split. Might well be a narrow win for Lisa Forbes.
I think this will be a big Tory win – 5000 or so.
Exit poll suggests a large Tory majority nationwide, probably in the 80s.
Peterborough may well fall to the Conservatives now.
Quite clearly. Fourth MP in three years here.
In 4.5 years, yes. If it happens.
Paul Bristow is Peterborough’s new Conservative MP.
RESULT:
Paul Bristow (Conservative) – 22,334
Lisa Forbes (Labour) – 19,754
Beki Sellick (Liberal Democrats – To Stop Brexit) – 2,334
Mike Greene (Brexit Party) – 2,127
Joseph Wells (Green Party) – 728
Luke Ferguson (independent) – 260
Tom Rogers (Christian Peoples Alliance) – 151
The Very Raving Mr P (Monster Raving Loony Party) – 113
Turnout: 66%
Apologies Polltroll. The fourth Mp in 3 years. Perfectly correct.
This forum is dead. Anyone know any better ones around?
The 3.3% Lab>Con swing here was much in line with the national trend – as was the 2017 result.
Peterborough continues to be competitive between the two lain parties, as it has been for decades. It seems to be unique amongst English seats in staying marginal for decades, whereas most marginals from the 60s and 70s have moved firmly towards either the Tories or Labour.