Peterborough
2015 Result:
Conservative: 18684 (39.7%)
Labour: 16759 (35.6%)
Lib Dem: 1774 (3.8%)
Green: 1218 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7485 (15.9%)
Liberal: 639 (1.4%)
Independent: 516 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1925 (4.1%)
Category: Marginal Conservative seat
Geography: Eastern, Cambridgeshire. Part of the Peterborough council area.
Main population centres: Peterborough, Eye, Thorney.
Profile: Peterborough was a victorian industrial town that has grown massively since the 1970s after being designated as a newtown in 1967. It is an economically successful city with strong service and distribution industries on the back of good transport links (there are intercity trains to London and it sits just off the A1(M)). It is an ethnically diverse city - there is a significant Asian Muslim population, but also many Italian immigrants (due to recruitment for the brickmaking industry in the 1950s) and more recent Eastern European immigration. The seat also contains an area of Fenland to the east including the villages of Thorney and Eye.
Politics: A key marginal between the Conservatives and Labour, Peterborough fell to Labour in 1997 and was regained by the Conservatives in 2005.
| Con: | 18133 (40%) |
| Lab: | 13272 (30%) |
| LDem: | 8816 (20%) |
| UKIP: | 3007 (7%) |
| Oth: | 1699 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 4861 (11%) |
| Con: | 17364 (42%) |
| Lab: | 14624 (35%) |
| LDem: | 6876 (17%) |
| UKIP: | 1242 (3%) |
| Oth: | 1098 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 2740 (7%) |
| Con: | 15121 (38%) |
| Lab: | 17975 (45%) |
| LDem: | 5761 (14%) |
| UKIP: | 955 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 2854 (7%) |
| Con: | 17042 (35%) |
| Lab: | 24365 (50%) |
| LDem: | 5170 (11%) |
| Oth: | 926 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 7323 (15%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
According to Micheal Crick the law covers speculating as well – the rules are more like how the media treats election day.
That may be true of broadcast media, but newspapers can run live blogs etc on election day and I’ve read a couple of pieces today which ‘speculate’ on the likelihood here.
But it’s hardly difficult to do, ie merely pointing out that 7,000 is an easy threshold to reach in light of what has gone on.
But yes, you cannot reveal or have a running commentary re GOTV etc.
She has posted a video, claiming to be innocent (but doesn’t say why she believes this to be the case).
I assume she wants to stand in a by-election and not be struck off as a lawyer either.
Yes. That video makes it likely that should the recall petition succeed as expected she would stand as an independent.
I can’t imagine she’d retain her deposit if she did. The target for her would be to beat Simon Danczuk’s 2017 performance.