Peterborough

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18684 (39.7%)
Labour: 16759 (35.6%)
Lib Dem: 1774 (3.8%)
Green: 1218 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7485 (15.9%)
Liberal: 639 (1.4%)
Independent: 516 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1925 (4.1%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Cambridgeshire. Part of the Peterborough council area.

Main population centres: Peterborough, Eye, Thorney.

Profile: Peterborough was a victorian industrial town that has grown massively since the 1970s after being designated as a newtown in 1967. It is an economically successful city with strong service and distribution industries on the back of good transport links (there are intercity trains to London and it sits just off the A1(M)). It is an ethnically diverse city - there is a significant Asian Muslim population, but also many Italian immigrants (due to recruitment for the brickmaking industry in the 1950s) and more recent Eastern European immigration. The seat also contains an area of Fenland to the east including the villages of Thorney and Eye.

Politics: A key marginal between the Conservatives and Labour, Peterborough fell to Labour in 1997 and was regained by the Conservatives in 2005.


Current MP
STEWART JACKSON (Conservative) Born 1965, Woolwich. Educated at Chatham House Grammar and Royal Holloway. Former bank manager and business development manager. Ealing councillor 1990-1998. Contested Brent South 1997, Peterborough 2001. First elected as MP for Peterborough in 2005. PPS to Owen Paterson 2010-2011. Resigned as a PPS after rebelling over the issue of an EU referendum.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18133 (40%)
Lab: 13272 (30%)
LDem: 8816 (20%)
UKIP: 3007 (7%)
Oth: 1699 (4%)
MAJ: 4861 (11%)
2005*
Con: 17364 (42%)
Lab: 14624 (35%)
LDem: 6876 (17%)
UKIP: 1242 (3%)
Oth: 1098 (3%)
MAJ: 2740 (7%)
2001
Con: 15121 (38%)
Lab: 17975 (45%)
LDem: 5761 (14%)
UKIP: 955 (2%)
MAJ: 2854 (7%)
1997
Con: 17042 (35%)
Lab: 24365 (50%)
LDem: 5170 (11%)
Oth: 926 (2%)
MAJ: 7323 (15%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEWART JACKSON (Conservative) See above.
LISA FORBES (Labour) Peterborough councillor.
DARREN FOWER (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Walton Comprehensive and De Montfort University. Media development officer. Peterborough councillor since 2004.
MARY HERDMAN (UKIP)
DARREN BISBY-BOYD (Green) Born Belfast.
JOHN FOX (Independent) Educated at Queens Boys Secondary Modern, Wisbech. Former police officer. Peterborough councillor since 2002.
CHRIS ASH (Liberal) Peterborough councillor 1986-1994 and since 2000.
Links
Comments - 923 Responses on “Peterborough”
  1. For all his big talk, Farage has chickened out of two by-elections now which were a very good shot for him winning (here, and Eastleigh in 2013, where UKIP only lost very narrowly).

  2. “No more than a fraction of people in this kind of seat will vote for “an independent pro-EU candidate” – certainly nowhere close to 35%.”

    Perhaps not. Although 48% of them did vote for a pro-EU Labour candidate only two years ago.
    Galloway is now out, of course – I don’t think he ever stood a chance in Peterborough. I’ve personally never heard of Mike Greene until now.
    Jeremy Corbyn was in the city yesterday. Labour’s Lisa Forbes still looks like the strongest candidate.

  3. “Although 48% of them did vote for a pro-EU Labour candidate only two years ago.”

    Well people vote Labour for a whole host of reasons, not just because they are pro-EU. My point is that if your party label is “pro-EU candidate” then that becomes their defining single issue – I think in this kind of seat their potential vote is quite low.

  4. Yes. Fair point.
    The idea of a single independent pro EU candidate seems to have been dropped now anyway.

  5. Crazy shenanigans going on in the run-up to the deadline for registration.

    So, following a week or so of inter-party haggling, with several reports of what was going on at any one moment in direct contradiction with one another, the “remain alliance” had reached a point earlier today where they would stand down in and support the independent candidate Femi Oluwole, the charismatic and high-profile leader of the campaign group Our Future, Our Choice. Oluwole then bottled it at the last moment, announcing that he himself would be standing down to avoid splitting the vote with the Labour candidate and letting the Brexit Party through the middle. This despite the fact that Oluwole has been highly critical of Labour’s Brexit prevarications over the last three years. The farcical upshot is that, in an election which was supposed to be a totemic test of whether the second-voters have made any headway into the Brexit heartlands, the people of Peterborough are going to be given a choice at the ballot box between Brexit, hard Brexit and very hard Brexit. And this is somehow the result of a tactical decision by all the anti-Brexit candidates to stand aside for one another to fight the pro-Brexit forces in unison.

  6. Tbf Femi has endorsed Labour in the EU elections saying that only they can stop Farage

  7. I find all this language round who is pro Brexit and who is pro Remain rather alienating. The irony is the Brexit has turned me into a Lib Dem. I don’t identify as a remainer or a bexitier. I find myself in the middle of all this desperately depressed that the debate is so polarised and because I don’t find myself passionately wanting to stay in the EU or wanting to leave that’s some how spineless. Brexitiers call you a remoaner and remainers call you a hard brexitier

  8. Everyone and his wife seems to be being suggested as a Brexit Party candidate for Peterborough.
    They then, officially deny it.

  9. Matt: fair enough, I can see how incredibly frustrating it must be to have politics totally overwhelmed by a single issue that you’re personally not to bothered about either way.

    Keep banging the drum on the issues that do matter to you. Whether we agree with you or not, we could all do with focusing a bit more on the bread-and-butter issues where government has ground to a halt.

  10. There is no Change UK candidate.

    There is, however:

    Common Good: Remain in the EU

    Renew

    LD & Green (from the Remain side)

    Brexit, UKIP, SDP & EngDem (Brexit side).

    Objections have been made to a nomination, but not heard which one yet.

    The only oddity is the Green PPC has 12 nominees.

    The Labour candidate does not provide her address (but that is now allowed as discussed previously).

  11. The Brexit Party are now favourites with at least one bookie.

    I don’t see it. If I were a betting man I’d be putting a tenner on Labour, who are widely available at evens.

  12. Yes, Brexit will win here on EU elections day, but I doubt they will on the Parl By-election day.

  13. I think they have a fair chance. Labour’s best hope is that Farage’s rhetoric pushes up turnout in the substantial ethnic minority electorate here. In Stewart Jackson’s interesting article on ConHome today he states that antipathy from the Asian and Black community was a key reason for his defeat in 2017 (I advanced that theory on here and numerous people pooh-poohed it). If they are sufficiently riled up by the Brexit party, that may be the decisive factor.

  14. I can see Farage tacking right in the gap between the Eu elections and the by-election to give a message which will do better in Peterborough.

  15. I’ve never heard of Greene myself but apparently he was on the Secret Millionaire – a tv show where millionaires with a social conscience go incognito into impoverished communities and agree to give away tens of thousands of pounds

    I’ve never seen the one with Greene on it – or at least I don’;t think I have – but all the millionaires in the shows I did see seemed thoroughly good eggs as it were, and perhaps suggests that not all hardcore Brexiteers are the animals liberals (like myself) see them as

  16. I think antipathy from the white community was also a key factor in Jackson’s defeat! He was generally unpopular by 2017.
    Hmmm. A right wing millionaire made famous by a reality TV show? Is Greene Peterborough’s own Donald Trump?

  17. Nick Boles, of all people, has endorsed Greene.

    If his profile can pull in moderate votes despite being a hard Brexiter he has a very good chance indeed.

  18. We really are through the looking-glass, aren’t we?

  19. Boles has gave a qualified endorsement.
    Can Farrage resist the urge to be moderate here when an unmodreate campaign might actually succeed more.

  20. Farage hasn’t had any trouble resisting the urge to be moderate in the past.

  21. Surprised how little discussion there is on here about the by-election. Has the campaign not going yet?
    Is there a more up to date version of this forum I don’t know about? 2015 was a long time ago now!

  22. Everyone is fixated on the European vote. The outcome there will change the odds here substantially.

    If the Brexit Party can end up with around 35% in Brussels and 30 MEPs then I think they are favourites here. For the moment I would still make Labour the favourites, but not as comfortably as I had previously imagined.

  23. The Brexit Party are now 4/7 fav here.

    Labour 11/8

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