Oxford West & Abingdon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 26153 (45.7%)
Labour: 7274 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 16571 (28.9%)
Green: 2497 (4.4%)
UKIP: 3963 (6.9%)
NHA: 723 (1.3%)
Others: 66 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9582 (16.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Oxfordshire. Part of the Oxford council area, part of the Cherwell council area and part of the Vale of White Horse.

Main population centres: Oxford, Abingdon, Kidlington.

Profile: The larger and much more rural of the two Oxford seats. Oxford West contains some of the northern suburbs of Oxford and a few colleges on the outskirts of the city centre but not much else of it - the vast majority of the city`s residential population sits in Oxford East. Instead this seat contains the rural hinterland to the west of the city, the large village of Kidlington and the town of Abington. Oxford airport lies in the north of the seat.

Politics: A marginal contest between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, up until 1997 it was held by the Conservatives, though on only modest majorities. In the historic Tory defeat of 1997 it fell to Liberal Democrat Dr Evan Harris, who was a high profile voice in favour of abortion rights, euthanasia and secularism within Parliament and, after his defeat in 2010, has been a high-profile supporter of press regulation from outside Parliament.


Current MP
NICOLA BLACKWOOD (Conservative) Born 1979, Johannesburg. Educated at home and Oxford University. Former researcher for Andrew Mitchell MP. First elected as MP for Oxford West and Abingdon in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23906 (42%)
Lab: 5999 (11%)
LDem: 23730 (42%)
UKIP: 1518 (3%)
Oth: 1327 (2%)
MAJ: 176 (0%)
2005*
Con: 16653 (32%)
Lab: 8725 (17%)
LDem: 24336 (46%)
GRN: 2091 (4%)
Oth: 795 (2%)
MAJ: 7683 (15%)
2001
Con: 15485 (30%)
Lab: 9114 (18%)
LDem: 24670 (48%)
GRN: 1423 (3%)
Oth: 876 (2%)
MAJ: 9185 (18%)
1997
Con: 19983 (33%)
Lab: 12361 (20%)
LDem: 26268 (43%)
Oth: 1326 (2%)
MAJ: 6285 (10%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICOLA BLACKWOOD (Conservative) See above.
SALLY COPLEY (Labour) Head of UK Campaigns at Oxfam.
LAYLA MORAN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Imperial College. Maths and physics teacher. Contested Battersea 2010, West Central 2012 London election.
ALAN HARRIS (UKIP)
LARRY SANDERS (Green) Born New York, brother of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Retired social worker, lecturer and lawyer. Oxfordshire councillor 2005-2014.
HELEN SALISBURY (NHA)
MIKE FOSTER (Socialist Party GB)
Links
Comments - 311 Responses on “Oxford West & Abingdon”
  1. Not even close, this seat is thought to have been 62% remain. Even Abingdon itself must have been pretty pro-remain, if not quite 62%. I guess a lot of folk who live there are professionals who commute to Oxford?

  2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39794410/man-tackles-farron-over-leave-voters

    Is it bad that when I heard that a leave voter in Oxfordshire had confronted Tim Farron I immediately thought it might be a certain poster on this forum?

  3. Lol!

  4. So, Oxfordshire stayed in no overall control as Labour kept its hold in the city of Oxford and the Lib Dems held their own in the surrounding countryside. Of course the fact that there is no longer a local Prime Minister probably doesn’t help the Conservatives here.

    Looking relatively promising for the Lib Dems’ chances in this particular seat. The Tories are probably still favourites here just because of the size of their majority, but it’s no foregone conclusion.

  5. Surely this must have been the Libs’ best result in 2015 in a seat that didn’t vote for them in 2015.

    Followed by Montgomeryshire and Maidstone IIRC? Probably a few others with similar scores to Maidstone that I can’t think of right now.

    The reason that was mildly interesting (Maidstone) was because that was a seat they hadn’t even held before.

    This seat, though, is the one full of passionate Remainers that might give the LDs a glimmer of hope.

  6. Sorry, first sentence meant to say “. . . that didn’t vote for them in 2010”.

  7. Be interesting to know that with the County Council election being fought on the Local Government Register to find out how many EU citizens actually voted. With the University and some High Tech industries, there must be a good number If they did vote, its more likely for the LDs who want to stop Brexit. As it is it may have slightly skewed the result to the Lib Dems but the problem for them is that they can’t vote in the General Election

  8. Theresa May confronted here by a voter who has had her disability benefits cut. Same seat as Tim Farron got heckled, coincidentally.

    Makes you wonder why the Tories even bother with stage-managed members-only events.

  9. CON HOLD 3k maj. The 2015 result was an aberration here.

  10. It’ll definitely be closer. The question is how much closer.

  11. From what I can see TM handled it well enough- unlike Gordon Brown in Rochdale.

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