Orpington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28152 (57.4%)
Labour: 7645 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 3330 (6.8%)
Green: 1732 (3.5%)
UKIP: 8173 (16.7%)
MAJORITY: 19979 (40.7%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Bromley council area.

Main population centres: Orpington, Petts Wood, Farnborough, Chelsfield, Biggin Hill, St Mary Cray.

Profile: Geographically the largest seat in London, Orpington is the south-eastern corner of London and large parts of it are open Kent countryside between Farnborough and Biggin Hill aerodrome , though the electorate is mostly leafy suburbia. It covers Orpington itself, Petts Wood, Farnborough, Chelsfield, Biggin Hill and the more industrial St Mary Cray, dominated by retail parks and only area in the seat to consistently return non-Conservative councillors..

Politics: As an affluent area with a high owner occupier rate and little social housing this might be expected to be solidly Conservative territory, Orpington though holds a special place in the traditions of the third party. Eric Lubbock`s famous victory for the Liberal party in the 1962 by-election saved the Liberal party from what had seemed like an inevitable slow death. It returned to the Conservative party in 1970 (Lubbock inherited a peerage shortly afterwards as Lord Avebury), but remained a Liberal target for many years afterwards. In the 1990s and 2000s Chris Maines of the Liberal Democrats fought this seat four times on the trot, in 2001 narrowing the Conservative majority to only 269. In 2010 though Maines went to fight pastures new in Lewisham East and the Liberal Democrats appeared to turn their attention elsewhere, allowing new Conservative candidate Jo Johnson to acheive a towering majority.


Current MP
JO JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1971, London, brother of Boris Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former Journalist. First elected as MP for Orpington in 2010. Government whip 2012-2014, Minister of State at the Cabinet office 2014-2015. Head of the Downing Street Policy Unit since 2013, Minister of State for Universities since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 29200 (60%)
Lab: 4400 (9%)
LDem: 12000 (25%)
UKIP: 1360 (3%)
Oth: 1951 (4%)
MAJ: 17200 (35%)
2005*
Con: 26718 (49%)
Lab: 4914 (9%)
LDem: 21771 (40%)
UKIP: 1331 (2%)
MAJ: 4947 (9%)
2001
Con: 22334 (44%)
Lab: 5517 (11%)
LDem: 22065 (43%)
UKIP: 996 (2%)
MAJ: 269 (1%)
1997
Con: 24417 (41%)
Lab: 10753 (18%)
LDem: 21465 (36%)
Oth: 1211 (2%)
MAJ: 2952 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JO JOHNSON (Conservative) See above.
NIGEL DE GRUCHY (Labour) Born 1943, Jersey. Educated at De La Salle College and Reading University. Former General Secretary of the NASUWT.
PETER BROOKS (Liberal Democrat)
IDHAM RAMADI (UKIP) Born 1978. Educated at St Marys CoE High School, Hendon. Local government officer.
TAMARA GALLOWAY (Green) Born 1967, Farnborough. Contested Orpington 2010.
Links
Comments - 163 Responses on “Orpington”
  1. ‘I recall a study about a year ago that named Ceredigion and St Albans the most pro-EU parts of the country.’

    Outside London and Scotland that’s not a bad call

    St Albans must be one of the most pro EU towns without a university in it and despite being in the middle of Wales, Ceredigion is actually one of Wales most middle class seats with a thriving public sector

  2. To be fair the old law school used to be in St Albans

  3. Labour candidate for GE2017 is Nigel de Gruchy.

  4. Jo Johnson has resigned from the government – as he is unable to support the government over Brexit.

  5. A sign perhaps that many on both wings of the Tory party find the current Chequers plan unpalatable. Johnson Jr also came out strongly in favour of a second referendum.

  6. I was just wondering earlier today whether Theresa May has the votes of the Soubry squad locked in for whatever deal she comes back with. With the amount of support she is going to get from Labour seemingly shrinking as grassroots pressure to oppose her grows, this really could be the final nail in the coffin.

    It’s a highly unpredictable vote, but the direction of travel is clear (and not good for May).

  7. I can’t see a deal being actually defeated in a commons vote – if defeat looks likely the deal will not get voted on.

  8. I disagree. There’s been a lot of talk about an exhaustive process. So it may be voted down but after alot of twoing and throwing the deal will be accepted. Bit like the US bailout

  9. I think that’s right.

    When we really are staring right down the barrel of no-deal I think enough MPs on both sides will blink.

    Chaotic no-deal Brexit would make the winter of discontent look like a walk in the park and would ruin the Tories’ electability for a generation, exactly as those few months in 1979 destroyed Labour for almost two decades.

    Labour moderates with strongly Remain seats would not easily be able to look their electorates in the eye having effectively voted to enable no deal. Also in reality they might not be very enthusiastic to precipitate the hard left Corbyn government that would become almost inevitable in such an eventuality.

    Labour MPs in Leave seats might not be very popular were their vote to lead to a second referendum and “Remain after all” winning.

    I think a few Lib Dems may in the end vote for the deal, Stephen Lloyd already indicated he probably will, others in Leave-leaning seats like Norman Lamb may be under pressure to do likewise.

  10. Not sure about remain seat Labour moderates backing it – their comments yesterday don’t suggest they will.
    The most likely Labour backers will be the moderates in Leave seats, Mp’s like Caroline Flint and Gareth Snell.

  11. I don’t think I can remember a parliamentary vote where so many factions could go either way for so many different reasons.

    The pro-chequers coalition spans Michael Gove and Lisa Nandy. The anti-Chequers coalition is even more politically diverse. It’s likely to come down to a handful of complete wildcards. Who knows how Frank Field will vote? What about Lady Sylvia Hermon?

  12. Frank Field tends to vote the same way as Kate Hoey who is opposed to the deal so I will predict he might vote to reject it.
    Lady Sylvia Hermon is a hard one to predict she leans for the deal I suspect but might be worried about how her constituents will react to it.

  13. Is Lisa Nandy pro chequers? Michael Gove is rumoured to rejected Brexit Sec and might resign

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