Ogmore

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5620 (15.9%)
Labour: 18663 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 1072 (3%)
Plaid Cymru: 3556 (10.1%)
Green: 754 (2.1%)
UKIP: 5420 (15.4%)
TUSC: 165 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13043 (37%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Wales, Mid Glamorgan. Part of the Bridgend council area and part of the Rhondda Cynon Taf council area.

Main population centres: Maesteg, Pontycymer, Pencoed, Aberkenfig, Nant-y-moel, Llanharan.

Profile: A traditional, working class mining and ironworking seat in the Welsh valleys, based around the Garw valley and Ogmore Vale.

Politics: An utterly safe Labour seat.


Current MP
HUW IRRANCA-DAVIES (Labour) Born 1963, Swansea. Educated at Gowerton Comprehensive and Crewe and Alsager College. Former university lecturer and sports centre manager. Contested Brecon & Radnor 2001. First elected as MP for Ogmore in 2002 by-election. Born Ifor Huw Davies, his unusual name is from hythenating his name with that of his Italian wife, Joanna.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5398 (16%)
Lab: 18644 (54%)
LDem: 5260 (15%)
PC: 3326 (10%)
Oth: 2022 (6%)
MAJ: 13246 (38%)
2005*
Con: 4243 (14%)
Lab: 18295 (60%)
LDem: 4592 (15%)
PC: 3148 (10%)
MAJ: 13703 (45%)
2001
Con: 3383 (11%)
Lab: 18833 (62%)
LDem: 3878 (13%)
PC: 4259 (14%)
MAJ: 14574 (48%)
1997
Con: 3716 (10%)
Lab: 28163 (74%)
LDem: 3510 (9%)
PC: 2679 (7%)
MAJ: 24447 (64%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JANE MARCH (Conservative)
HUW IRRANCA-DAVIES (Labour) See above.
GERALD FRANCIS (Liberal Democrat)
GLENDA DAVIES (UKIP)
LAURIE BROPHY (Green)
TIM THOMAS (Plaid)
EMMA SAUNDERS (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 129 Responses on “Ogmore”
  1. Like it was supposed to be in Oldham you mean

  2. The demographics of Oldham are rather different to Ogmore. Demographics are everything as far as politics these days is concerned.

  3. Labour will of course hold this easily, but if it is indeed woth less than 50% of the vote, I think that would be a worrying result for them.

  4. This by-election has received hardly anything in the way of press coverage, compared to Brightside and Hillsborough.

  5. It will be interesting to see how much the Assembly and by-election results differ from each other. Probably not by that much in this case, but might some voters decide to experiment with one of their votes?

  6. Final candidate list:

    Glenda Davies – UKIP
    Janet Ellard – Liberal Democrat
    Chris Elmore – Labour
    Abi Thomas – Plaid Cymru
    Alex Williams – Conservative

  7. The same Janet Ellard who previously stood in Monmouth in 2011 and North Swindon in 2015.

  8. The by-elections here and in Sheffield are extremely quiet. Not surprising, I guess, given how safe the two seats are and the competing pull of the devolveds, locals and the EU ref.

  9. My contact who’s doing a lot of work in the B&H by-election tells me that opposition activity seems pretty minimal (though Farage was there today). UKIP don’t even have a full slate of candidates for the concurrent locals in those wards.

    Don’t rule anything out, but I can’t see where an upset would come from.

  10. It is interesting how almost none of Labour’s safe seats are as safe as they once were.

    Whether due to Labour voters staying at home or going to UKIP etc.

    I realise it’s different in different areas of the UK (Scotland, Yorkshire, the Valleys) but it’d be interesting how much canvassing goes on in safe seats. I recall after D Miliband retired there was apparently only 2% voter ID for the Roll ie just members, Cllrs and their families.

    Labour also seemed unaware of what was happening in the Heywood & Middleton, Bradford Westby-elections even when polls had closed.

    I don’t know whether it’s more a problem for Labour (ie when an Indy or whoever pops up they’re not in a position to repel them); whereas Tories in safe seats tend to turn out.

    Although we have started to see Inds pop up (Hugo in Devon was run close in parts of his seat by an Ind) and of course there was Tatton.

  11. M P-R – hardly.

    There were swings against Labour (to UKIP) in every Labour held seat in By-elections during the 2010-2015 Parliament. I think there were 6 of them.

  12. Maybe. I wasn’t so much suggesting Labour’s safe seats were vulnerable to the other main Parties.

    It just seems that they’re vulnerable to almost anyone else who pops up locally to challenge them, ie UKIP, Ind, Respect, SNP, Plaid, etc depending where the seats happen to be.

    A Valleys’ seats has been lost before of course over an imposed Labour candidate a decade ago.

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