Nuneaton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 20827 (45.5%)
Labour: 15945 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 816 (1.8%)
Green: 1281 (2.8%)
UKIP: 6582 (14.4%)
TUSC: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4882 (10.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Warwickshire. Most of the Nuneaton and Bedworth council area and part of North Warwickshire council area.

Main population centres: Nuneaton, Hartshill.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) Born 1974, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School. Former Conveyancing manager. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2005-10, Leader of Nuneaton and Bedford council 2008-09. First elected as MP for Nuneaton in 2010. Junior local government minister since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18536 (42%)
Lab: 16467 (37%)
LDem: 6846 (15%)
BNP: 2797 (6%)
MAJ: 2069 (5%)
2005*
Con: 17665 (39%)
Lab: 19945 (44%)
LDem: 5884 (13%)
UKIP: 1786 (4%)
MAJ: 2280 (5%)
2001
Con: 15042 (35%)
Lab: 22577 (52%)
LDem: 4820 (11%)
UKIP: 873 (2%)
MAJ: 7535 (17%)
1997
Con: 16540 (31%)
Lab: 30080 (56%)
LDem: 4732 (9%)
Oth: 628 (1%)
MAJ: 13540 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) See above.
VICKY FOWLER (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Personal tutor. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2011-2014.
CHRISTINA JEBB (Liberal Democrat) Hypnotherapist. Staffordshire Moorlands councillor. Contested Nuneaton 2010.
ALWYN WAINE (UKIP)
KEITH KONDAKOR (Green) Born 1965, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School and Birmingham University. Businessman and electronic engineer. Warwickshire councillor since 2013 and Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor since 2012.
STEPHEN PAXTON (English Democrat)
PAUL RILEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 248 Responses on “Nuneaton”
  1. For information I am standing for the Green Party in Nuneaton in 2015.

  2. Do you think you’ll save your deposit?

  3. Thanks Keith. If you know of any Green selections that aren’t on my list I’d be grateful to know about them. A link is on my Twitter page = AndyJSAJS.

  4. The Greens have county councillors in Numeaton now, so they may well save their deposit.

  5. They didn’t stand in 2010. Labour will not be over the moon over the Greens’ decision to stand this time.

  6. The last time we stood in all the wards in Nuneaton was the 2013 county council elections. We averaged 11% across the borough of Nuneaton and Bedworth and that was 16% in just the Nuneaton Divisions.

  7. The Tories being only 5% behind Labour is quite encouraging for them I think. It could have been a lot worse.

    Ashcroft poll:

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    UKIP 14%
    Green 8%
    LD 4%
    Oth 1%

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/nuneaton-2/

  8. Christina Jebb reselected as Lib Dem candidate.

  9. It’s is 01:00 on Friday 8th May and Nuneaton is expected to be the first crucial marginal to be declared (Lab’s No 38 target). If the Tories win they would expect to be the largest party. If Labour gain it should ensure a fairly good night for them. Of course it could go to a recount.

  10. Labour Gain. 2,000 majority.

  11. LAB gain but only by about 1000-1500

  12. Given the general accuracy of predicted result times from previous general elections, it would be no surprise if Nuneaton doesn’t come in until 5am.

  13. Lab gain, majority 1400.

  14. This should be the 1st Con/Lab marginal to declare.

    If the Exit poll is correct the Conservatives will probably hold it or only lose very narrowly.

    Declaration due circa 1.30am.

  15. Extremely poor if Labour doesn’t pick this up. Nuneaton is a seat which even Kinnock won in 92!!

  16. CON HOLD – INCREASED MAJORITY.

  17. Christ, Labour is truly fucked!!

  18. Now we believe the Exit Poll

  19. Labour have not gained this- Jones has increased his majority to over 5000.

  20. The Basildon of 2015,

  21. It looks like game over for Labour now it really does the Basildon of 2015.

  22. Exit wrong, Tory majority

  23. The exit poll could be wrong, could be a CON majority comfortably if this continues

  24. A seat KINNOCK won in 1992!!! Something very very very ugly has happened to Labour.

  25. Dear Christ how have they done this well.

  26. This is fantastic for the Tories. I don’t think many people would have predicted this.

  27. Results: Great minds think alike!

    3% swing to Conservatives

  28. It’s so eerily similar to 1992 it’s weird!

  29. I think Labour can kiss even their London Tory target seats goodbye, bar Hendon.

  30. And H. Hemmilig’s view about this not being a repeat of 1992 has been blown away…

  31. A Tory majority.

  32. They’ll gain more than 10 seats for certain I think…

  33. As you all said on election night, Ed Balls was a ‘Portillo’ moment, and Nuneaton was a ‘Basildon’ moment. In fact SKY was interviewing Alex Salmond when this seat was called..he was looking very smug until he saw the result and then he referred to ‘Labour being unable to win Tory held marginal with a sulk on his face – !!

  34. I knew it was all over for Labour when this result came through.

  35. I also thought the Tories would hold Warwickshire North since the two seats usually move together, but oddly the BBC continued to have it down as a Labour gain after the Nuneaton result came through.

  36. The Midlands, save for Wolverhampton SW (and that’s trending to Labour anyway) was utterly dire. Despite the situation in Scotland, both W and E Mids gave the party so many opportunities for easy gains. Nuneaton, N Warwickshire, Cannock Chase….these were seats even Neil Kinnock won (although the last one was Cannock and Burntwood).

    Then you had Sherwood, Broxtowe, Lincoln and on a push Northampton North which a better leader would’ve walked. The Tories even took back Corby.

  37. Something went wrong but I don’t quite know what. All I can think of off the top of my head is that in this region Ed Miliband didn’t go down very well with swing voters at the very last minute when they went to vote?

  38. those of us who were convinced ed miliband simply have to admit we were badly wrong.

    from now, i will take polling with dollops of salt…those of us who rely on data and analysis obviously require that data to be at least broadly accurate. This was simply not the case in the instance of the last election. I’m very pleased with the actual outcome. I was living in dread of a socialist govt.

  39. This was the point I knew C would get a majority. Swindon N was the first indication but this confirmed it wasn’t aberrant. I basicslly think we won the economic arguments and this election was actually a bit like 1987 in middle England in the sense the swing away from the third party previously actually often came more to con.

  40. I have to admit the Tories won’t have too many problems with a majority of 8 over the course of the Parliament unless they lose several by-elections and some MPs defect.

  41. As a Londoner where the Ed view of things is better received I feel very relieved that fellow countryman and women elsewhere have such common sense. They may not be signed up tory members but they do seem to see the gvt has a plan that makes broad sense.

  42. I’m not so sure of that. John Major started the 1992-1997 parliament with a 21 seat majority and by the time of the election it had gone and he was leading a minority government.

  43. Save for the few gains they did make, Labour’s only comfort was that they managed to shore up the vote in some of their English marginals/semi-marginals. Even then it doesn’t excuse how they lost a few of them like Plymouth Moorview and Bolton West. Of course Labour ousting Galloway in Bradford is comfort to voters of all parties. I actually think some Tories voted tactically for Labour to get rid of him (their own vote share fell significantly).

  44. The polls weren’t that wrong actually because many of them had figures of 34% each with a 3% margin of error. If you apply that margin of error, it’s possible to get 37% and 31% which is very close to the result. The problem is people often forget about the 3% margin of error.

  45. Major lost many of his by-elections to the LDs. It’s difficult to see the LDs winning many by-elections at the moment.

  46. The election was a victory for provincial England and Wales. They didn’t accept the metropolitan view of Ed Miliband. Labour’s vote went up in trendy areas like Hackney and Islington.

  47. Labour’s performance in small town England was even more appalling than in 2010 and that is saying something.

  48. The more I look at the results the more I reach this conclusion:

    UKIP’s new voters were ex Labour wwc or in former LibDem seats ex LibDem wwc.

    In Scotland the SNP’s new voters were of the same types but on a much greater magnitude.

    The Conservatives through the fear factor managed to keep their wwc voters. Their fall in votes since 1992 has been in middle class urban areas.

    The strategic worry for the Conservatives (and opportunity for UKIP) is what will happen to their wwc voters without that fear factor and the inevitable economic and social problems gloabalisation will continue to cause.

    Labour is either hated or discredited to Conservative wwc (a feeling likely to increase as Labour becomes ever more metropolitan dominated).

    The LibDems are effectively destroyed.

    So which party will scoop up the Conservative wwc voters as concerns about immigration, inequality etc grow ?

  49. Maybe that’s because, whatever his faults, Gordon Brown wasn’t a trendy London liberal. He was the sort of person who wore a lounge suit most of the time. Brown probably went down slightly better in the small towns than Miliband.

  50. This seat was one of my “surprise ” CON holds that I kept banging on about (see page 29/30 of LABOUR TARGETS).

    Loads of reasons why this stayed blue:

    Support for the conservatives benefits cuts.
    Reward for giving people EU vote but mostly:-

    Miliband didn’t convince – didn’t look prime ministerial
    TORIES led massively on the economy

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