Nuneaton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 20827 (45.5%)
Labour: 15945 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 816 (1.8%)
Green: 1281 (2.8%)
UKIP: 6582 (14.4%)
TUSC: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4882 (10.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Warwickshire. Most of the Nuneaton and Bedworth council area and part of North Warwickshire council area.

Main population centres: Nuneaton, Hartshill.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) Born 1974, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School. Former Conveyancing manager. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2005-10, Leader of Nuneaton and Bedford council 2008-09. First elected as MP for Nuneaton in 2010. Junior local government minister since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18536 (42%)
Lab: 16467 (37%)
LDem: 6846 (15%)
BNP: 2797 (6%)
MAJ: 2069 (5%)
2005*
Con: 17665 (39%)
Lab: 19945 (44%)
LDem: 5884 (13%)
UKIP: 1786 (4%)
MAJ: 2280 (5%)
2001
Con: 15042 (35%)
Lab: 22577 (52%)
LDem: 4820 (11%)
UKIP: 873 (2%)
MAJ: 7535 (17%)
1997
Con: 16540 (31%)
Lab: 30080 (56%)
LDem: 4732 (9%)
Oth: 628 (1%)
MAJ: 13540 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) See above.
VICKY FOWLER (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Personal tutor. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2011-2014.
CHRISTINA JEBB (Liberal Democrat) Hypnotherapist. Staffordshire Moorlands councillor. Contested Nuneaton 2010.
ALWYN WAINE (UKIP)
KEITH KONDAKOR (Green) Born 1965, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School and Birmingham University. Businessman and electronic engineer. Warwickshire councillor since 2013 and Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor since 2012.
STEPHEN PAXTON (English Democrat)
PAUL RILEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 248 Responses on “Nuneaton”
  1. Tories have gained a seat in the Arbury ward from Labour. Apparently it was an extremely low turnout.

    Nonetheless, very bad result for Labour. Shouldn’t be losing in a place that’s high up their target list in 2015.

    The English Elections blog said that this by-election was triggered by the disqualification of a Labour councillor.

  2. Con 395, Lab 369, UKIP 109, Grn 56, BNP 35, TUSC 8, ED 6

  3. LAB GAIN MAJ : 8%
    LAB 42
    CON 34
    LD 10
    UKIP 8
    GRN 3
    OTH 3

  4. Prediction for 2015-
    Labour- 44%
    Jones (Conservative)- 40%
    UKIP- 9%
    Liberal Democrats- 7%

  5. I think TheResults is closer. I wouldn’t completely rule out a Tory hold here, not yet, but I suspect Labour will narrowly take this as things currently stand.

  6. I think this will be pretty tight. First time incumbency and a long term tory shift.

  7. Long-term but very gradual.

  8. If I had to stick my neck, I would go for a labour gain too – but by less than 2%.

  9. I think Marcus Jones’ first-time incumbency will probably restrict any Tory decrease here to about 1-2% if that, but he could still lose if Labour pick up enough tactical Lib Dem votes to win the seat back.

  10. Labour gain- the 2013 CC results suggested they’ll be able to get out their core vote in the town itself, which will probably be enough.

  11. Lab 42
    Tory 40
    UKIP 8
    LD 7
    Others 3

  12. Popular vote:

    Lab 13,069 (41.46%)
    Con 9,411 (29.85%)
    UKIP 5,882 (18.66%)
    Green 2,064 (6.55%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab -3.66%
    Con -11.28%
    UKIP +18.66%
    Green +3.71%
    BNP -6.66%
    LD -2.81% (not standing this time)

    Swing, Con to Lab: 3.81%

    Labour need a swing of 2.32% to take Nuneaton at the general election.

  13. Worth noting that in 4 years the Conservatives have gone from controlling the local council to holding just 3 of 34 seats. This time the Tories also lost Arbury, which they’d won at a by-election last December.

  14. Nuneaton constituency:

    Conveniently there was a by-election on 22nd May in Hartshill, one of the North Warwickshire wards in the Nuneaton constituency:

    http://www.northwarks.gov.uk/info/200038/elections_and_voting/193/election_results

    Result for Nuneaton constituency excluding the Arley and Whitacre ward in N Warks:

    Lab 7,777
    Con 6,715
    UKIP 5,471
    Green 1,972
    TUSC 289
    Ind 218
    BNP 119
    Eng Dem 44

    2011 result in Arley and Whitacre was Con 852, Lab 823, Ind 252. So Labour would have stayed ahead this year in Nuneaton unless there had been a massive swing to the Tories in that ward.

  15. Unfortunately Andy the Hartshill seat for county is different to the one in the Nuneaton constituency, which is the Hartshill borough seat- it’s half the size of the county seat, excluding South Atherstone, so the comparison can’t really stand

  16. I hate to be serious for a minute and drag the debate back to key marginals, but this seat seems quite pivotal. It’s a key midlands marginal, in an area which is an important Con/Lab battleground for the next election.

    The local elections look reasonable for labour, and UKIP here, at least, seems to be harming the tories more than labour…. paddy power have the seat at 4/9 labour, which seems very short to me. Does anyone think the Tories can hold this seat. If not, it’s very hard to see how they can get to be the largest party.

  17. When Labour took this in 1992, it was one of their first gains to come in that night, and was a heavy tactical switch from old Alliance voters back to Labour. Now, I can see this being very close in 2015, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Marcus Jones managed to hold on by 100-500 votes, but if UKIP do well enough, he might lose.

  18. I think a Conservative hold is achievable but I would make Labour clear favourites. There is still quite a strong Labour core vote in the town.

  19. Lewis Stevens recorded his highest number of votes in 1992 in defeat.

  20. A Tory hold here would be roughly equivalent to a national lead of at least 1 & a half % even allowing for first-time incumbency. It’s clearly possible but local election results are rather worrying for the Tories – especially since Labour will fancy eating quite a way into the Green local vote in Weddington. Labour still very narrow favourites for me but yes, the odds are very ungenerous.

  21. I would price lab about 3/4 here.

  22. funnily enough, ladbrokes also have labour at 4/9 here…they sometimes don’t agree at all with paddy power on constituency odds, with watford being a good example of the two bookies offering quite different prices.

    Ukip are sure to stand here and gain support, given that the BNP got 6% in 2010.

  23. LD votes will be needed for the Tories to hold on.
    The BNP vote will probably end up in the UKIP and Labour piles.
    No offence meant – but I think that’s where it will go.

  24. 86% for the 2 main parties.

    LD 7%
    UKIP 7%

    If the Tories can push up to around 44 they should hold on – I do think the LD vote will go to parity with UKIP who will be squeezed somewhat from their potential.

  25. prediction for 2015-

    Con- 39%
    Lab- 38%
    Lib- 12%
    UKIP- 9%
    BNP- 2%

  26. The shares for the two main parties may be correct but I don’t know why you think the LD share will only drop by 3 points.

  27. I see this seat as a major test. I agree with Andy about the LDs but I also think the two large parties will be higher in such a key marginal.

  28. That does add to 77%, nowadays the two main parties getting 77% is actually a fair bit. It’s not like in the past, now UKIP, the lib dems and the greens are much bigger than what they where twenty years ago , it’s going to just get tougher for the political establishment to get a majority in my opinion.

    As for my lib dem prediction I might have got that a bit wrong but I don’t think it’ll plummet tragically here.

    What people , not Andy he was raising a good point, but people, (including myself on many an occasion), on this site don’t seem to realize is that you can’t write off a prediction until it’s disproved in the election.

  29. True, but the Lib Dems are clearly not much bigger than what they were 20 years ago – probably going to be smaller than 35 years ago – particularly in C/Lab marginal.

    UKIP could do quite well here though.

  30. No-one’s writing off anyone’s predictions, just commenting on them.

  31. robbietriestopredictpolitics is an embarrassment…he’s like one of the worst pro labour posters who used to populate this site with their rubbish a few years ago…what was that labour troll’s name who said they would win everything in sight, last year?

    Now robbietriestopredictpolitics thinks the tories will hold everything…

    The blues’ council base in this seat has been annihilated, as was pointed out post-2014…the idea they will hold is ambitious…

    can see why HHemmelig and others have abandoned this site. It’s quality has plummeted in the last few months.

  32. There was always going to be an increase in new posters as we get close to the election.

  33. “what was that labour troll’s name who said they would win everything in sight, last year?”

    Bob.

  34. Ah yes, bob! I remember…what happened to him, I wonder?

  35. I think this seat is a practically certain Labour gain-here is my prediction for this seat for 2015: (I am sure UKIP and the Greens will stand this time, especially as my fellow Greens have two seats on Nuneaton Council!)

    Lab 44
    Con 35
    UKIP 10
    Green 5
    Lib Dem 4
    BNP 1
    Others 1

    I think we Greens will do somewhat well here, given the progress we have made in Warwickshire and the West Midlands in general, and that UKIP’s vote alone will cost Marcus Jones his seat (UKIP did not stand here last time),despite him having the ‘incumbency bonus’. The Lib Dem core base meanwhile in this seat is pretty weak indeed.

  36. I see that former the Nuneaton Labour MP Les Huckfield has been wheeled out by the SNP as a supporter of the Yes campaign in the independence referendum (he now lives in Scotland).

    It comes across as quite a weak attempt to woo Labour support for the Yes campaign. From what I gather Les Huckfield is no longer a member of the Labour Party, and was unpopular when he was.

  37. Goodness, a blast from the past. Huckfield realised in 1983 that the redrawn Nuneaton was highly losable (indeed it was lost by several thousand), and therefore attempted a chicken run. He was linked with the Wigan constituency, but Roger Stott who was MP for Westhoughton (part of which constituency was now to be included in Wigan) got the nomination & he failed to get a seat. He rather burnt his boats with the left by failing to resign from the government on a point of principle (a cuts issue I think it was – it’s a long while ago) while the supposedly less left-wing Joan Lestor did in fact resign for that reason. Therefore when he went further leftwards again in the early 80s he was perhaps not fully trusted by anyone.

  38. Les Huckfield finished second in the selection battle for Sedgefield in 1983. I can’t quite remember who won that contest, but I think it was a moderniser who went on to have a far more successful political career than Les Huckfield ever did.

  39. What was his name again? I forget…

  40. It was some guy called Blair apparently. I don’t think he achieved much in his time as an MP. History seems to have overlooked him.

  41. Doesn’t really ring any bells. Last I heard of him he came third in the Beaconsfield byelection. Who is this Cameron bloke by the way?

  42. Yeah, well he got a safe Labour seat after the Beaconsfield by election, but I think he just lingered on the backbenches for a few years after that.

    I’m not 100% sure about Cameron, but I think he was an old school friend of Boris Johnson who used to work at Tory Central office 20 odd years ago. No idea what he’s doing now.

  43. *DRIPPING WET SARCASM ALERT*

    Did Dave get a job working for Carlton Television after advising Norman Lamont? I seem to remember him standing in Stafford later in 1997. Agreed Adam, as to his current whereabouts now, your guess is as good as mine…

  44. Last time I checked the Prime Minister was Emrip Retsinim. Oh hang on, that’s just Prime Minister backwards. Is the PM actually Cameron?

  45. Cameron made a slightly self-deprecating joke about his candidacy in Stafford when he was standing for the party leadership. He said that “I fought Stafford in 1997, but it fought back strongly”.

  46. That’s quite funny. Of course it was the worst year to defend a marginal seat, and he wasn’t at all helped by the huge national swing away from his party.

  47. Someone once told me hilarious story about Cameron at Carlton. Probably shouldn’t repeat it in print though 😉

  48. Why mention it then?

  49. Interesting that UKIP didn’t stand here last time, I think they might get third place because the Lib Dems aren’t all that strong here, and I can see the yellows collapsing right down to about 7-8%, I don’t think they stand in many places locally at election time for the council, so in such circumstances they could finish fourth.

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