Nuneaton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 20827 (45.5%)
Labour: 15945 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 816 (1.8%)
Green: 1281 (2.8%)
UKIP: 6582 (14.4%)
TUSC: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4882 (10.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Warwickshire. Most of the Nuneaton and Bedworth council area and part of North Warwickshire council area.

Main population centres: Nuneaton, Hartshill.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) Born 1974, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School. Former Conveyancing manager. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2005-10, Leader of Nuneaton and Bedford council 2008-09. First elected as MP for Nuneaton in 2010. Junior local government minister since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18536 (42%)
Lab: 16467 (37%)
LDem: 6846 (15%)
BNP: 2797 (6%)
MAJ: 2069 (5%)
2005*
Con: 17665 (39%)
Lab: 19945 (44%)
LDem: 5884 (13%)
UKIP: 1786 (4%)
MAJ: 2280 (5%)
2001
Con: 15042 (35%)
Lab: 22577 (52%)
LDem: 4820 (11%)
UKIP: 873 (2%)
MAJ: 7535 (17%)
1997
Con: 16540 (31%)
Lab: 30080 (56%)
LDem: 4732 (9%)
Oth: 628 (1%)
MAJ: 13540 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) See above.
VICKY FOWLER (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Personal tutor. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2011-2014.
CHRISTINA JEBB (Liberal Democrat) Hypnotherapist. Staffordshire Moorlands councillor. Contested Nuneaton 2010.
ALWYN WAINE (UKIP)
KEITH KONDAKOR (Green) Born 1965, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School and Birmingham University. Businessman and electronic engineer. Warwickshire councillor since 2013 and Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor since 2012.
STEPHEN PAXTON (English Democrat)
PAUL RILEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 248 Responses on “Nuneaton”
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  1. looks like a fire has put an end to daw mill colliery in this seat so thats uk coal down to 2 deep mines

  2. Anthony – you mean Nuneaton & BedWORTH (see above)

  3. I did hear the interview about this colliery fire, which has attracted very little publicity considering its size. Unlike some of green persuasion, I would like to see the continuation of a coal industry in this country (though certainly not under its current ownership), and greatly regret what’s happening at Daw Mill. I thought that the colliery was in N Warwickshire, but perhaps it moved in the last boundary changes.

  4. This is an interesting seat. Selection for the Labour candidate is underway and it’s Open. So I took a look at the history of this seat. I hadn’t realised it was a Labour seat from 1935 until 1983. Labour even had a heathy 7k majority in 1979. Anyone know if the Lib Dems are likely to get squeezed here? It seems to be trending Tory and therefore it will never be a ‘safe’ Labour seat again.

  5. I thought Nuneaton was an AWS

  6. Sorry Matt you’re right. It’s been a long day at work! I must be half asleep. Anyway still an interesting seat politically.

  7. I believe Bedworth was in the seat until 1983, which explains part of the reason such a hefty majority evaporated. Les Huckfield’s attempt to ratrun probably didn’t help either.

  8. Yes Bedworth was always part of this seat until 1983. I think also some of the rural bits of the seat weren’t included before then. It was a mainly urban & coalfield seat & was safe Labour until the major boundary changes of 1983. Probably on those boundaries Labour would have even won in 1983 – though not by that much I suspect.

  9. The Tories are probably above 1992 here, by about 1%,
    but are still about 4-5,000 votes below.

  10. A couple of Tory holds in Nuneaton town.

    NUNEATON WHITESTONE

    Con 1173 (52.9%) – 1.4%
    Lab 697 (31.4%) +13.9%
    Green 348 (15.7%) +1.7%

    The absence of the BNP this time around appears to have helped Labour. The Tory vote held firm.

    NUNEATON ST NICHOLAS

    Con 1290 (51.15%) -13.5%
    Green 717 (28.43%) +12.6%
    Lab 460 (18.2%) -1.3%
    TUSC 55 (2.18%) +2.18%

  11. However, Labour has held Nuneatons Wembrook, Abbey, and Camp Hill with significantly increased majorities (and > 60% of the vote).

  12. The Greens have won Nuneaton Weddington from the Tories on a massive swing

    WEDDINGTON

    Green 1032 (42.7%) +25.3%
    Con 748 (31%) -29.2%
    Lab 364 (15.1%) -7.4%
    UKIP 264 (10.9%) +10.9%

  13. Channel 4 News had some projections for marginal seats which make interesting reading, (I haven’t checked the totals myself):

    Nuneaton: 1% Lab lead, (2010: 4.6% Con lead)
    Harlow: 3% Lab lead, (2010: 11.2% Con lead)
    Worcester: 1% Con lead, (2010: 6.1% Con lead)
    Derbyshire South: 1% Con lead, (2010: 14.1% Con lead)

    Swings from Con to Lab:
    Nuneaton: 2.8%
    Harlow: 7.1%
    Worcester: 2.6%
    Derbyshire South: 6.6%

  14. If I was Robert Halfon, I would certainly take a projected deficit of just 3% at this stage in the Parliament.

  15. Looks like a bit of wet pasta salad for Labour doesn’t it.

    But Tories have to learn our lessons from this.
    If UKIP takes this many votes and Labour can concentrate theirs,
    their days in office will be numbered.

  16. I don’t know about the others but Labour were more like 13% ahead in Nuneaton and 19% in North Warks constituencies.

  17. Former Countryfile presenter Miriam O’Reilly is seeking Labour selection here.

  18. Labour would have won Nuneaton but not by a very convincing margin.

    This isn’t a perfect calculation because I’ve assumed that 50% of both the Arley and Hartshill divisions are in the constituency and that they voted the same throughout:

    Lab: 7,698
    Con: 6,124
    Green: 2,765
    UKIP: 818
    Ind: 449
    Others: 1,087

    Once again the high Green vote may be depressing what Labour would poll in a general election.

  19. And a very low UKIP vote for what is basically a WWC/lower middle class seat.

  20. Lack of candidates and organisation.

    Funnily enough I think they might have done rather respectably if they had stood, as they did in North Warwickshire – which isn’t very different in terms of demographics.

  21. The BNP of course were quite well organised round here, leaving a good base of votes for UKIP to start with.

  22. It’s only 1500 votes majority but that does represent about 8% which is far from disastrous. These results are a lot better for Labour than Warwick & Leamington, though certainly not as convincing as N Warwickshire.

  23. Barnaby- agreed. Labour did especially well getting out the core vote in Nuneaton itself- over 60% in Wembrook, Abbey, and Camp Hill.

  24. My current prediction:
    LAB 36
    CON 33
    LD 14
    GRN 10
    UKIP 7

  25. Labour shortlist –

    Miriam O’Reilly – former Countryfile presenter
    Vicky Fowler – local councillor

    Vicky is 22, Miriam is 56

  26. Windsofchange:

    I don’t agree the Lib Dems will only be down 1%, and the Green vote is also too high – more like:

    Lab – 38
    Con – 36
    UKIP – 10
    LD – 8
    Grn – 5
    OTH – 3

  27. why does the woman from countryfile want to represent this seat

  28. She is semi-local – was brought up in Birmingham and was a local BBC reporter in Warwickshire

  29. Vicky is too young to be an MP. Miriam O’Reilly will be the candidate and she will win.

  30. Vicky Fowler won the selection

  31. LOL the curse of Bob strikes again. He thinks he has his finger on the pulse though.

  32. You can’t feel a pulse where Bob sticks his finger

  33. Maybe Miriam O’Reilly will take the CLP to court for their blatant ageism.

  34. Would probably be the youngest MP since Bernadette Devlin – if she won.

  35. The majority of voters in a seat like this will be over 55 years of age. Whether they will be happy to vote for such an inexperienced candidate is an interesting question.

  36. Well, that selection surprised me. I was fully expecting O’Reilly, but then again I was only expecting that from a distance – don’t know a thing about the area.

    I too was rather taken aback by the age of our candidate, but those who shortlisted her – not to mention the members of the CLP – were obviously so impressed by her that it nullified concerns they had about her age. Or O’Reilly performed very badly. My guess is maybe abit of both. Still, Pitt the Younger was Prime Minister at 24, and the country came out fine enough, so why no to an MP at 24!

    Just checked O’Reilly’s Twitter feed. She’s not taken it well. Alleging dirty politics. And going all-out on Bill Olner, the last MP. Oh dear.

  37. When Pitt the Younger was PM the average age of the population wouldn’t have been much higher than 24.

  38. If she’s 24 when elected, that would be the same age as both Claire Ward in Watford, & Chris Leslie in Shipley in 1997, though they both turned 25 shortly afterwards.

  39. Nevertheless Andy Pitt was roundly mocked for his youth at the time. As it turned out of course, he was a very great PM – which goes to show that age & experience are not everything.

    By the end of the 19th century we had a PM in his eighties – quite a contrast.

  40. To be fair, Vicky is a local councillor so she must have good knowledge of the areas issues. At 24 she’ll be much easier to manipulate and follow the party line as well.

  41. And even looking at young MP’s from more recent times, shell’l still be 3 years old than Bernadette Devlin when she first became an MP.

    Does anyone know if Tony Benn’s grand-daughter is still trying to become the first MP to be born in the 1990’s?

  42. If she is, she’ll have a hard time. She was born in 1989.

  43. We haven’t yet reached the stage where there’s an MP born in the second half of the 1980s. The baby of the house, Pamela Nash, was born in 1984.

  44. Sorry, I thought I’d read somewhere that Emily Benn was born in 1990.

    Looks like that title could go to the next MP for this seat.

  45. she has to win the election first

  46. Miriam O’Reilly simply said that they wanted someone local – personally I think it would be hard for someone so young as the candidate selected to look after the constituency. Though in other ways its good to have a diverse parliament

  47. Not sure about the Lab candidate (she is perhaps too young) but can see Nuneaton being a narrow gain for Labour.

  48. The Warwickshire CC elections were encouraging for Labour both here and in North Warwickshire. I think this will be a Labour gain in 2015.

  49. Obviously the CC result in N Wawrickshire was markedly better for Labour than it was in Nuneaton. Nevertheless, as Barnaby said upthread, Labour did manage an 8% lead here and really got out its core vote in the town itself.

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