Nuneaton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 20827 (45.5%)
Labour: 15945 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 816 (1.8%)
Green: 1281 (2.8%)
UKIP: 6582 (14.4%)
TUSC: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4882 (10.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Warwickshire. Most of the Nuneaton and Bedworth council area and part of North Warwickshire council area.

Main population centres: Nuneaton, Hartshill.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) Born 1974, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School. Former Conveyancing manager. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2005-10, Leader of Nuneaton and Bedford council 2008-09. First elected as MP for Nuneaton in 2010. Junior local government minister since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18536 (42%)
Lab: 16467 (37%)
LDem: 6846 (15%)
BNP: 2797 (6%)
MAJ: 2069 (5%)
2005*
Con: 17665 (39%)
Lab: 19945 (44%)
LDem: 5884 (13%)
UKIP: 1786 (4%)
MAJ: 2280 (5%)
2001
Con: 15042 (35%)
Lab: 22577 (52%)
LDem: 4820 (11%)
UKIP: 873 (2%)
MAJ: 7535 (17%)
1997
Con: 16540 (31%)
Lab: 30080 (56%)
LDem: 4732 (9%)
Oth: 628 (1%)
MAJ: 13540 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARCUS JONES (Conservative) See above.
VICKY FOWLER (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Personal tutor. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor 2011-2014.
CHRISTINA JEBB (Liberal Democrat) Hypnotherapist. Staffordshire Moorlands councillor. Contested Nuneaton 2010.
ALWYN WAINE (UKIP)
KEITH KONDAKOR (Green) Born 1965, Nuneaton. Educated at St Thomas More School and Birmingham University. Businessman and electronic engineer. Warwickshire councillor since 2013 and Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor since 2012.
STEPHEN PAXTON (English Democrat)
PAUL RILEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 243 Responses on “Nuneaton”
  1. That’s true.

    I’ve just spotted yet another Corbyn photo/speech in front of a banner of Lenin, Stalin, Mao et al and that was a recent one.

  2. The BBC are suggesting that the LEAVE vote in Nuneaton and Bedworth could be as high as 70%!!!

  3. It was 80% in Nuneaton apparently.

  4. @Maxim Parr-Reid

    100% in both local authorities for LEAVE! Haha!

  5. Owen Jones visits Nuneaton:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAUfIEPRikA

  6. Cool might check it out tomorrow evening thanks

  7. Wasn’t there a 10% swing to the Tories here in the May locals or something like that?

  8. Super Thursday last night with a slew of local by-elections with some fascinating results.

    First we have Coatbridge North and Glenboig in North Lanarkshire, this appears to have been discussed at length already on the Coatbridge thread and I don’t claim to have much of an understanding of the electoral methods used in Scottish locals so I’ll be very brief and just say it was a Lab gain from the SNP. Onto the rest…

    Old Stratford (South Northamptonshire)
    Tories previously elected unopposed, Tory hold
    CON=77.2%
    UKIP=22.*%

    Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote (Cherwell)
    Tory Hold
    CON: 57.4% (+8.5)
    LAB: 16.2% (-0.3)
    GRN: 15.7% (-5.5)
    LDEM: 10.7% (-2.8)

    Two promising results for the Tories but then it all goes wrong for them…

    Hadleigh (Suffolk) result:
    Lib Dem gain from Tories
    LDEM: 36.2% (+12.0)
    CON: 25.9% (-5.6)
    LAB: 22.4% (+5.8)
    UKIP: 11.5% (-11.3)
    GRN: 3.9% (-0.9)

    Teignmouth Central (Teignbridge) result:
    Lib Dem gain from Tories
    LDEM: 51.1% (+28.3)
    CON: 29.8% (-12.6)
    UKIP: 11.6% (+11.6)
    LAB: 7.5% (-8.7)

    Lib Dem machine back in action clearly with those two.

    Arley & Whitacre (North Warwickshire)
    Lab gain from Tories
    LAB: 59.7% (+33.7)
    CON: 40.3% (+1.7)

    UKIP and the Greens not standing and their vote clearly breaking overwhelmingly for Labour. The Greens not so surprising but UKIP? Interesting to say the least.

    Christchurch (Allerdale)
    Lab gain from Tories
    LAB: 40.7% (+5.8)
    LDEM: 29.4% (+20.0)
    CON: 25.9% (-19.3)
    UKIP: 4.0% (+4.0)

    Lib Dem machine back in action and it clearly handed Labour the seat.

    The last two are not majorly interesting…

    Cilycwm (Carmarthenshire)
    Plaid gain from Independant
    PC: 27.8% (+27.8)
    IND: 20.9% (+20.9)
    LAB: 17.0% (+17.0)
    IND: 14.7% (+14.7)
    PF: 8.9% (+8.9)
    LD: 8.6% (+8.6)
    CON: 2.1% (-17.2)

    For the sake of clarification it was a different independent standing this time hence the odd results.

    Finally we have…
    Chopwell & Rowlands Gill (Gateshead)
    Lab hold
    LAB: 59.1% (-3.7)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+1.3)
    LDEM: 12.3% (+7.9)
    CON: 8.6% (-2.3)
    GRN: 4.4% (-3.2)

    So all in all a good night for Plaid, a good night for Labour another great night for the Libs and a poor night for the Tories.

  9. In Arley and Whitacre, the result was probably Con -> Lab switchers, with UKIP supporters turning to the Conservatives, rather than staying at home. There might have been some UKIP -> Lab switchers but they won’t all have migrated from one party to the other en masse.

    Agreed it’s a good night for Labour. It’s a fairly average night for the Lib Dems in comparison to their recent performances.

  10. *or rather, staying at home.

  11. Polltroll
    Possibly and obviously there’s always churn and its never one group of voters moving on masse for another party but I’ve been saying this for a while now that in former coalmining and ex industrial WWC areas like Arley the UKIP vote is probably split evenly between the two main parties if not majority leaning Labour so its really not that big a surprise that when they don’t stand Lab are the bigger beneficiaries in a ward like that.

  12. Labour up 6% here.

  13. Tories up 6% as well

  14. Yes but the fact that Lab not Lost ground in this particular seat is very significant

  15. Seems like a lot of UKIP votes are going to Labour as well?

  16. Not nearly good enough for the Conservatives in Nuneaton.

  17. This result was an early worry sign for the Tories, unlike last time when it did a ‘Basildon’ and effectively proved the exit poll was wrong and there’d be a Tory overall majority.

  18. For me it was Swindon North having a fair Labour swing that I knew it was a complete disaster. Sunderland and Newcastle gave a bit of a mixed picture that left some questions over the accuracy of the exit poll (as it happens white working class seats in the north/midlands just happened to be far better for the Tories than everywhere else bar Scotland).

  19. I think it’s fair enough to say that just like last time North Swindon really was the harbinger in many ways for the pattern that was to follow later on. It’s just that people remember Nuneaton more from last time because a lot more fuss was made about it in terms of the coverage and importance…

  20. Exactly.

    In 2015 I was in the Pizza Express when the Election poll came out, and returned home probably about 11.30.
    The North Swindon result was very encouraging for the Conservatives and suggested we would get an overall majority.

    In 2017, I was also finishing off in the Pizza Express and saw the Exit poll.
    It was disappointing but not a complete surprise – I had been slightly more re-assured in the last 1-2 days.
    The early results from the NE did leave open the prospect that the Tories would edge better than the exit poll (although both years it had done pretty well).
    But when I travelled back home on the bus to watch the results, and saw the North Swindon result, I knew the Tories were unlikely to get a majority.

  21. Incredible how one seat can point to the pattern about to emerge on election night two elections in a row- I feel North Swindon is now very much a weathervane seat, not necessarily bellwether perhaps, but given Nuneaton is no longer the hotly contested marginal this time it was going into 2015 it could be that next time it’ll be incumbent on another marginal conurbation seat such as Corby, Northampton North/South or Milton Keynes North/South to take over the Basildon mantle to give an early indication on election night of how a crucial marginal seat will effectively decide the outcome of the election most likely to materialise later on in the night.

  22. I think those of us who follow these things have a sense.
    I think in 2015 North Swindon told me that the collapsed LIb Dem vote was not necessarily all going Labour’s way and that the Tories could extend their lead with that happening.
    This time, when I saw Labour polling over 21,000 votes in that seat I knew the Tories were in trouble.
    Swindon is a pretty good indicator I think now.

  23. Yes I think so too, and South Swindon is now a close marginal once again so with North Swindon no longer on the way to taking the safe path the likes of North West Leicestershire. Tamworth and most recently North Warwickshire have undertaken. both the town’s seats will be real contests when there’s another election- I think on the figures the local Tories will always be mindful of the fact they were both initially held by Labour for the first thirteen years of their existence, and consequently will always be treated as true marginal seats probably.

  24. Corby is not that fast a declarer I dont think.

  25. No – and it doesn’t seem to be behaving that typically either given Labour narrowed the gap in Northampton seats.
    The trouble is all elections throw up some new marginals and discard other ones, although they can even out over time.

  26. Maybe not such a good example on my part then- I was forgetting the big rural East Northamptonshire section of the seat with the villages of course heavily benefiting the Tories…

  27. Seats like Sunderland where the Brexit vote was 60%+ tended to swing Tory. Swindon was the moment that confirmed the exit poll. It was interesting that nobody seemed bothered by Nuneaton but it was clear already unlike last time that despite the marginal swing needed labour would pick up seats where a larger swing was needed. Problem with corby is it dont declare til 6am

  28. Perhaps the two Swindon seats can safely assume this mantle then in that case?

  29. The Nuneaton result was probably about what people expected once they had adjusted to the Exit poll.
    A better Tory result than average but the fact that they didn’t extend their lead quite revealing.

  30. I.e. they’re the only ones (certainly North Swindon is reliable) who are at least semi-marginal now counting quicker and able to do declare early enough to give an indication in the first part of the night when results typically tend to be thin on the ground.

  31. It is a bit frustrating when you get one or two untypical results and you have to deduce things from it for about an hour.

  32. It certainly is I’m afraid. Which is why caveats of course must be applied when these early declarers give actual results to input some actual figures into the equation- they aren’t necessarily reflective and it’s usually harder to know for certain what is typical until the night wears on a bit- the big rush of results tends to come circa 2AM I feel; not all necessarily dead marginal to begin with, but it’s only really when you’ve seen a carbon copy happening up and down the land in different seats with similar swings you can really know for sure I believe- so in a sense North Swindon is good in the early stages, but it’s like you say it can be a bit frustrating if after that there’s a slog for the next hour or two- most places seem to be meticulous in their counting, marginal or not, whether it be down to wanting to get it absolutely right or not having the financial resources to count quicker I’m not sure but even without local elections on the same night this time it didn’t seem to make any difference in terms of the speed of the majority of seats at completing their counts and getting to the declarations.

  33. This time I think Darlington confirmed the pattern for me. The results before that, including the Swindons, were a bit inconclusive on whether the Cons would be able to take the seats they expected to. Not getting Darlington and then Wrexham confirmed Lab were holding seats expected to fall.

  34. Yes I think that’s right. They were marginals seen to have been highly winnable in the context of winning a majority in the hundreds, but with the change in fortunes throughout the campaign less so. Given the prime demographic of Darlington and Wrexham appears to have been shifting the Tories’ way, both being held by Labour really were truly commendable results for them.

  35. Darlington i was quite confident of holding by the time it waa declared but wrexham was important as the exit poll predicted Wrexham, et al would fall to the tories

  36. Yes actually the exit poll got Wales quite badly wrong, at least relative to how accurate it was everywhere else. I don’t know what was up with that.

  37. Agree with THE RESULTS…for me it was SWINDON N result that – along with the BBC EXIT POLL prediction – made me fairly sure of a hung parliament. Labour were up 10% and closed the gap from 23% to 15%.

    IIRC betting markets moved appreciably immediately following Swindon N.

  38. The exit poll was inaccurate at a local level in ways which broadly cancelled each other out. The BBC were saying that Labour would lose Wrexham, and I think a couple of other seats close to it in North Wales, which of course didn’t happen. On the other hand they had Labour gains in several seats in the south such as Reading West which didn’t happen either.

    The exit poll also suggested that there would be a large swing to Labour in the North East, so that in the early stages when the early results there undershot this it appeared that a Conservative majority could still happen.

  39. The exit poll is supposed to give you the national picture rather than an accurate seat-by-seat prediction so this is not really a problem. But perhaps the BBC shouldn’t be highlighting individual seat predictions in the way they do, or at least should caveat them more – e.g. with a too close to call category.

  40. I think the exit poll has a full national amount of stations in Scotland since 2015 due to the SNP but in wales its just an equal share compared to the national average.
    The exit poll had a full Labour wipeout in North east Wales I think. I cant remember what it said about Yns Mon.

  41. Perhaps the biggest individual seat error of the night was the SNP losing Gordon to the LD’s.

  42. Definitely.The huge collapse of the Lib Dem vote probably took a lot of people by surprise, not just merely the media who misjudged it I think.

  43. Strong result for the Tories here, gaining nine wards – more than half of the seventeen up for grabs – to move the council into NOC (though Labour can still govern with the support of the sole Green Councillor).

    Seems like this was a place where Labour formerly benefited hugely from Tory/UKIP split opposition. Unless they deteriorate nationally I expect the Tories to take control of the borough when the other half of the seats are contested.

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