Nottingham South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 13761 (31.7%)
Labour: 20697 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 1532 (3.5%)
Green: 2345 (5.4%)
UKIP: 4900 (11.3%)
TUSC: 230 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6936 (16%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Part of the Nottingham council area.

Main population centres: Nottingham, Clifton.

Profile: The most varied and politically competitive of the three Nottingham seats. Nottingham South contains the city centre of Nottingham and some deprived and troubled residential areas nearby, such as the The Meadows estate. To the west it covers the far leafier and more desirable Wollaton area of Nottingham, an affluent residential suburb set around Wollaton park. Further south on the other side of the Trent is the large post-war council estate of Clifton, although much of it is now privately owned through the right-to-buy. The seat contains the main campuses of Nottingham University (just south of Wollaton) and the Clifton campus of Nottingham Trent University and as a result has one of the highest proportions of students of any seat in the country.

Politics: The seat was held by the Conservatives in until 1992, but Alan Simpson built up large Labour majorities during the Blair years. In the 2010 election Labour support dropped below 40%, but they managed to cling on thanks to the opposition vote being divided between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In 2015 the Tory vote stayed much the same, but the Lib Dems collapsed and Labour prospered, changing this from a tight marginal to a relatively comfortable Labour hold.


Current MP
LILIAN GREENWOOD (Labour) Born 1966, Bolton. Educated at Canon Slade School and Cambridge University. Former UNISON official. First elected as MP for Nottingham South in 2010. Shadow Transport Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13437 (33%)
Lab: 15209 (37%)
LDem: 9406 (23%)
BNP: 1140 (3%)
Oth: 1597 (4%)
MAJ: 1772 (4%)
2005*
Con: 9020 (26%)
Lab: 16506 (47%)
LDem: 7961 (23%)
UKIP: 1353 (4%)
MAJ: 7486 (21%)
2001
Con: 9960 (27%)
Lab: 19949 (54%)
LDem: 6064 (17%)
UKIP: 632 (2%)
MAJ: 9989 (27%)
1997
Con: 13461 (28%)
Lab: 26825 (55%)
LDem: 6265 (13%)
Oth: 446 (1%)
MAJ: 13364 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JANE HUNT (Conservative) Parliamentary caseworker and former civil servant. Charnwood councillor since 2003. Contested Leicester East 2010, Leicester South by-election 2011.
LILIAN GREENWOOD (Labour) See above.
DEBORAH NEWTON COOK (Liberal Democrat) Contested Derbyshire South 2005, East Midlands European region 2004, 2009, 2014.
DAVID HOLLAS (UKIP)
ADAM MCGREGOR (Green)
ANDREW CLAYWORTH (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 171 Responses on “Nottingham South”
  1. Re Sherwood, that’s a seat UKIP might wish to look at. Would stand a better chance of getting close to 30% of the vote there.

  2. Perhaps so but there won’t be Labour voters voting tactically Tory there! Nor in all but a very small number of seats in a general election.

  3. In the 80s and 90s, was the area of the city including the Castle and the RC Cathedral in Park ward, and which areas did Robin Hood ward cover?

  4. Look at the students and the two thirds white british with substantial amount of non-religious ! A green target surely?

  5. They certainly have potential here, as they do in most university constituencies.

  6. Does anyone know where I might find maps of Nottingham City’s county council divisions from before it became a UA?

  7. Harry Porter:

    Late response. I’m in the process of mapping the old wards onto Google Earth. Park ward covered the entire city centre as well as the Park Estate and New Lenton, therefore the castle and cathedral would’ve been included therein.

    Robin Hood ward was a mish-mash – much like today’s Leen Valley – probably made up of bits that wouldn’t quite reasonably fit into other wards. It comprised of Whitemoor as far north as the edge of Old Basford; Bobbersmill; the whole western part of Radford, the eastern chunk of the Wollaton Park estate; the area now covered by the university’s Jubilee Campus and a detached block of Wollaton opposite the QMC, plus all the nondescript area between Beechdale and the river Leen. Roughly speaking the ward lay along the line of the river, the inner ring road and the Nottingham-Worksop railway line. Such was the number of areas included in the ward that a name like Robin Hood was given to it, I suspect.

    Looking back at the old wards I do gawp at how oddly-named (and drawn) some were. Radford ward, for example, actually covered Hyon Green and Forest Fields, and Lenton ward covered mostly western Radford and the Arboretum area. The new wards are certainly less quirky and more logically drawn, but I have to echo sentiments up thread about the lumping-together of quite politically different areas they embody. Certainly this has to be partly responsible for the increasing single-party dominance on the city council.

  8. ”Look at the students…………..! A green target surely?”

    Robbietriesstoppredictpolitics- I can’t see the Greens picking up many student votes in Nottingham. As has been mentioned in this thread, most of the students in this seat are studying at the University of Nottingham. Most of these students are white, public school or grammar school educated and come from middle class, wealthy backgrounds whose families are most likely to vote Tory.

    It is very telling that the Nottingham University Conservative Association is thriving (and were very influential in the increasing the Tory vote in this seat) whilst many university Conservative Associations are struggling to recruit members.

  9. After the Newark by-election, some Tory friends of mine were invited to a party being thrown by the Nottingham Conservative Future branch, for which they’d hired a room and a huge number attended. The last time Sheffield Conservative Future did anything, they had to hold a drinking session in an empty lecture theatre and about ten people turned up. They are very powerful there as far as student branches go – alongside Warwick CF and Sheffield Labour Students of course.

  10. Christian is right. Students at UoN by and large aren’t the type to go Green. They’re a very different breed of students here: Norwich or Lancaster it ain’t. The Greens’ best chance in Nottingham (though still a very remote one) is probably in Nottingham East. A fair number of Guardian/Indy-reading trendy young families and similarly inclined middle-aged folk there, especially in Mapperley Park/Alexandra Park.

    The vote amongst those UoN students who actually turn out on 7 May will chiefly split between Labour and the Tories, with slightly more going to the latter if I had to choose. My housemate has joined the Tories and been canvassing for Jane Hunt in Beechdale, which made me somewhat curious – I’d have thought they’d be pouring everything into Wollaton West and Clifton North instead. But hey-ho.

  11. I have followed the coverage about the dispute about the election coverage.

    Why on earth did the television regulator allow UKIP and not the Greens?

    The concern the Conservatives will have is that the platform for UKIP will errode the Tory vote more than the Labour vote.

    The inclusion of the Greens would have had the opposite effect…..therefore to include both UKIP and the Greens would have been far more balanced.

    I also think that the SNP and Plaid have a reasonable argument about not being represented in a debate transmitted into Scottish and Welsh homes with no Nationalist speaker, particuarly since the former now leads Labour in the polls.

    Generally the inclusion of Farage could have a Cleggmania effect where he could down the road of pure populism.

    Why is Farage getting so much exposure? I mean….just how many times has he been on Question Time?

  12. UKIP have twice as many MPs than the Greens, are polling 2-3 times higher, they won the Euro elections (the Greens came 4th), they are standing in far more seats than the Greens….should I go on?

  13. The UKIP candidate, David Hollas, has an impressive CV by any standards:

    https://ukipnottingham.org/city-home/candidates/57-ukip-nottingham-south-parliamentary-candidate-2015

  14. I suspect Labour will win all but one or two of the City Council seats in Nottingham city, from what I’ve seen it could even be a wipeout, the Tories seem to be really trying for Leen Valley whereas campaigning in Wollaton West and Clifton North seems to be a bit on the soft side, especially now that Wilford in North and Wollaton has broadly gone the way of West Bridgford; the latter having previously been Tory bastions and now a Labour-Tory marginal area, the former appears to have followed suit, in addition we now have councillors in every ward, from which i’ve heard mainly positive things regarding, this can only help us win the remaining council seats

  15. It wouldn’t be that surprising if Labour won all the seats, after the by-election gain in Wollaton W not that long ago. Some party workers though will be engaged in working in nearby marginals, such as Erewash & Broxtowe.

  16. I recall having an interview at Nottingham Uni in 1980 and thinking then it was right wing.
    I went to Lancaster.

  17. @LabourCookieMonster

    Violent gang fight here left one dead recently – suspect all who can have left hence Labour’s ‘success’.

  18. The usual rounded, reasoned judgement from Wolf there. Nottingham’s actually a great place to live with a lot going for it. One instance of violence shouldn’t tar the whole city; on those grounds I think almost every city or town of size would see “all who can leaving”. Leave the pub talk for the pub.

    FWIW I also agree that Labour are likely to take every single seat on the city council in May, though the Tories may just save a seat in Wollaton West.

  19. Is Wolf ever going to be banned? Every post they make is either has Racist overtones ( Like the Above post and they post in the Norwich South thread on Thursday) or is out and out racist.

  20. He’s one of several posters who writes nakedly partisan/off topic posts regularly, but his are even more so than others.

  21. BM11 – nothing racist about Wolf’s post above though. You’re the one assuming the gang were black presumably? Nottingham did have a reputation for shootings 2 or 3 years ago, but not as much of late. White flight is a recognised demographic change taught even at A Level Geography. Not liking it doesn’t make that racist either. Incidentally, AW wouldn’t allow incitement on threads, but ‘racists’ are voters too for that matter and can’t be ignored in psephology just because you disagree with their reasons for eg not voting for ethnic candidates and so on.

  22. Have you seen his post on Norwich South and also on another thread, which I cant remember. The second one in particular was a clear racist post which had no connection to the politics of the seat.

  23. Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking Wolf was making a thought-through point about white flight.

  24. Andrew Clayworth standing for the TUSC, according to YourNextMP.

  25. And still no LD candidate, despite there being one in the other Nottingham seats…

  26. I have it on good authority that Deborah Newton-Cook is to be the Lib Dem candidate here.

    Newton-Cook was fifth on the Euro list for the East Midlands last year, and is an EU policy advisor.

  27. Liberal Democrats adopt Deborah Newton-Cook as their Candidate for the seat of Nottingham South http://nottinghamlibdems.org.uk/a7Vm1

  28. Labour Hold. 5,000 majority.

  29. The electorate has dropped from 70,787 on 1st Dec 2013 to 61,884 on 1st Dec 2014.

  30. That’s a MASSIVE drop!

  31. LAB hold 6000

  32. LAB 47.6
    CON 31.7
    UKIP 11.3
    GRN 5.4
    LD 3.5
    TUSC 0.5

    Decent result for Lilian Greenwood here, having being pushed to a shaky looking marginal in 2010. Undoubtedly they benefited from that Lib Dem slump.

  33. A very good performance for Labour here considering how dreadfully they did in most of rest of the East Midlands particularly the marginals.

  34. The former Rural District of Nottingham was part of the old Nottingham Central constituency from 1950 to 1974. Which civil parishes did it consist of? This seat also included two county borough wards called ‘Forest’ and ‘Sherwood’…which is strange because surely none of Sherwood Forest was in it at the time?

  35. What were the boundaries of the old version of this seat in 1885, 1950 and 1955?

  36. I’m not sure of all of this Harry
    but the 1955-74 seat of Nottingham South did include West Bridgford.

    The 2015 result suggests the LD vote was Labour leaning – perhaps from the university areas.
    The UKIP vote is harder to fathom – it may have been spread from all parties but perhaps here Labour were more resilient against them.
    The Tory share is down although they put on more votes and it’s hard to see how they could do a lot better here.

  37. I think the old county borough wards of Castle and St Mary’s were combined with the old Bridge ward to make the present Bridge ward, maybe parts of those three wards also went into Park, and then Radford and Park. ‘Bridge’ and ‘Radford and Park’ are the two present Nottingham city centre wards, the city centre has been in the ‘new’ version of this seat since 1983. I believe the old Nottingham Central seat was somewhat of a misnomer as it looks to me that the city centre wasn’t even within its boundaries! (but the Lace Market area may have been however.)

  38. The 2010 result here was anomalous. Maybe the Tory candidate was unusually popular.

  39. Nottingham constituencies in 1885

    East: Byron, Manvers, Mapperley, Robin Hood, St Ann’s
    South: Castle, Market, Meadow, St Mary Bridge, Trent
    West: Broxtowe, Forest, St Albans, Sherwood, Wollaton

    1918

    Central: Forest, Market, Robin Hood, St Ann’s, Sherwood
    East: Byron, Manvers, Mapperley, St Mary’s
    South: Bridge, Castle, Meadows, Trent
    West: Broxtowe, St Albans, Wollaton

  40. The hig swing to Labour in this seat in 2015 may have been becasue of the large student vote. The swing was much the same as in Canterbury, which also has a very large student population.

    The swing to Labour here appears to have been because of a collapse in the LIbDem vote, as Anthony Wells points out in his profile of this seat..

    In retrospect, this political change may be connected with the readiness of a substantial minority of younger voters to support Corbyn in the Labour leadership election. It is part of a very unhealthy polarisation in English politics.

  41. Milifandom did actually produce a tangible swing to Labour among young people from my experience so I can see that being true.

  42. And in my experience, quite the opposite….

    But personal experiences are not very useful in this regard. I knew almost no-one who voted Labour in 2001 for example – a function of where I live (where the local party is not too far from being one man and his dog) and the kinds of people I tend to meet and (more importantly) might talk politics with.

  43. Regarding boundaries for Nottinghamshire as a whole I’m having an absolute nightmare, am I right in thinking that there needs to be a cross county seat somewhere and if so what have others proposed?

  44. There is a very large Conservative society here and it may well be the biggest one out of all the universities in Britain.

  45. As has often been noted before, Nottingham University is noted for having a well-above-average public school intake – a lot of boys from Hampton School in my borough, for example, go there. lts student body is far less left-wing than in many universities and plenty of students there vote Conservative (even though undoubtedly some would do so at home). After all there is at least on paper some hope for the Tories here whereas many will come from very safe Tory seats. So it doesn’t surprise me at all. lf anything Oxford University & Cambridge University students are more pro-Labour than those from Nottingham (as opposed to Nottingham Trent) University.

  46. There was a fairly sizable swing to Labour in 2015, as in most student seats as the Lib Dems completely collapsed with the student demographic. Whilst Nottingham students do seem rather less left-wing than Bristol, Exeter or Brighton I expect most of the Tory vote, which has been fairly stable since 1997, come from non-students living in the upmarket parts of the city that fall within this constituency.

  47. In my experience, Tory students seem more likely than others to vote at home. A couple of reasons.

    1) Quite a lot of university-dominated seats are worthless for the Tories. Sheff. Hallam and Central, Bristol West, Leicester South, Ceredigion, Oxford East, Cambridge, Norwich South, etc. Others still are in safe Tory seats – Guildford, Canterbury, Buckingham.

    2) Quite a lot of students (but particularly right of centre ones) are going to be from middle-class areas which have a reasonable shot of being in marginals, or at least seats more marginal than their university one. I’ve met a number from Peterborough, Ipswich, Milton Keynes, Loughborough.

    There may be universities which buck the trend, namely those located in marginals (Loughborough, Lancaster, Bath, Exeter), mind.

  48. Along with Sheffield this is another shocker!

    Leave have won by 51% in Nottingham!

    Dave and Gideon need to start packing their bags!

  49. Another city that went the other way. Extremely poor for Remain.

    Safe to say that Leave will win this whole thing.

  50. oUCH. That is a shocker expescally as ukip don’t do that well here.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)