Norwich North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19052 (43.7%)
Labour: 14589 (33.5%)
Lib Dem: 1894 (4.3%)
Green: 1939 (4.4%)
UKIP: 5986 (13.7%)
Independent: 132 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 4463 (10.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Norfolk. Part of the Norwich council area and part of the Broadland council area.

Main population centres: Norwch, Thorpe St Andrew.

Profile: This is the northern part of Norwich, but is actually mostly outside the boundaries of the Norwich local authority - the outer suburbs of the city like Thorpe St Andrew, Sprowston and Hellesdon all come under Broadland district council. While the Norwich part of the seat has a substantial amount of social housing, the seat is largely made up of private housing developments, though not always affluent ones, and also includes Norwich airport. The 2011 census found Norwich had the highest proportion of people without a religion of any local authority, something that appeared to go hand-in-hand with areas of high support for the Green party.

Politics: Norwich North had been a Labour seat for most of its history until boundary changes in the 1980s expanded the seat to include the suburbs beyond the city limits and made it more of a Conservative-Labour marginal. It was represented by Labour`s Ian Gibson from 1997 until 2009 when Gibson resigned, having faced criticism during the MPs expenses scandal. The subsequent by-election was won by the Conservatives on a 16.5% swing.


Current MP
CHLOE SMITH (Conservative) Born 1982, Ashford. Educated at York University. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, prior to her election worked in professional services. First elected as MP for Norwich North in 2009 by-election. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2011-2012, Parliamentary secretary to the Cabinet Office 2012-2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17280 (41%)
Lab: 13379 (31%)
LDem: 7783 (18%)
UKIP: 1878 (4%)
Oth: 2253 (5%)
MAJ: 3901 (9%)
2005*
Con: 15638 (33%)
Lab: 21097 (45%)
LDem: 7616 (16%)
GRN: 1252 (3%)
Oth: 1430 (3%)
MAJ: 5459 (12%)
2001
Con: 15761 (35%)
Lab: 21624 (47%)
LDem: 6750 (15%)
GRN: 797 (2%)
Oth: 682 (1%)
MAJ: 5863 (13%)
1997
Con: 17876 (32%)
Lab: 27346 (50%)
LDem: 6951 (13%)
Oth: 1107 (2%)
MAJ: 9470 (17%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHLOE SMITH (Conservative) See above.
JESSICA ASATO (Labour) Educated at Flegg High School. Advisor to Tessa Jowell. Islington councillor 2011-2013.
JAMES WRIGHT (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Anglia Ruskin University. IT strategist. Norwich councillor.
GLENN TINGLE (UKIP) Contested Norwich North 2009 by-election, 2010.
ADRIAN HOLMES (Green) Educated at Leeds University. Software developer. Norwich councillor 2004-2012. Contested Norwich South 1992, 2001, Norwich North 2005.
MICK HARDY (Independent)
Links
Comments - 182 Responses on “Norwich North”
  1. I am a highly qualified professional, and my opinion is this: I feel that all will be shocked by the results of the elections this year, people who have never voted in their lives are coming out in protest of the conservative party, I am one of them. Anger is sending me to the polling station this year in Norwich North and I can tell you it will not be a tory vote on my slip. Young people that have never voted before in their lives are also going to the polling stations this year, my son being one of them, and they will definantly not be voting tory either. young people have been the hardest hit by this government, a government that has continually peanalized the young for being young, they have forgotten that these are people of the future, the tories have hung themselves.

  2. This seat and Crewe&Nantwich were held by the Tories due to the by election effect or to be precise their majority in GE2010 was inflated.

    However Chloe Smith resigned her post to defend her seat for GE2015 and Ashcroft Poll in February close and therefore I predict narrow Con hold here.

  3. Tory win

  4. By election swingback is certainly likely to be a factor Peter I agree. However since my last post last Summer has been some swingback nationally from Labour to the Conservatives, which I expect to continue in the next 10 days.

    I’ll stick with the implication of what I posted last summer Tory hold by 1,500 or so, and that it may be the Green vote which saves Chloe Smith here as well. I’m not saying that with absolute confidence though, just as I say Tory hold in Crewe just but again that will also be very tight.

  5. The count for Norwich South is at St Andrews Hall, and the count for Norwich North is at the County Showground. It should be an exciting night in both constituencies. My money ( If I had any ) is on Labour to take both seats.

  6. Labour leads by 2 points (CVI) in the latest Ashcroft poll in Norwich North. There are still Green and Lib Dem votes to potentially squeeze. Both polled 8 and 6% respectively.

    On SVI, Labour leads by 4 points.

  7. Changes from the February Ashcroft poll:

    Con +2
    Lab +3
    L Dem +1
    UKIP -4
    Green -2
    Oth +1

    UKIP now on 12%.

    With just over 1 in 4 voters still not backing Labour or Conservative, there is still lots of potential tactical voting available.

  8. I would predict a very narrow Labour gain. Labour doing well in the big city compared to Waveney for example where I think the Tories may hold on.

  9. Most of Norwich North actually falls under Broadland rather than Norwich City.

  10. Since this isn’t a Green target like Norwich South, and the Ashcroft poll suggests there is some vote for them, that could make all the difference between Labour taking it and just missing out. I’d imagine that Vote Swap website would encourage would-be Green voters to go Labour in Norwich North.

  11. Conservative Hold. 500 maj.

  12. LAB gain by 750-1000 on an LD/ Green squeeze.

  13. Ashcroft found the Greens and Lib Dem vote share at 14% in the CVI for Norwich N last week. That’s a hell of an opportunity for Labour, particularly from the Greens who were on 8%.

  14. Labour gain

  15. Lab gain majority 400.

  16. Tory hold 1200.

  17. Well done Chloe even better.

  18. Eastern region:

    2015:
    Con: 1,445,946 (47.74%)
    Lab: 649,320 (21.44%)
    UKIP: 558,517 (18.44%)
    LD: 243,191 (8.03%)
    Greens: 116,274 (3.84%)
    Others: 15,374 (0.51%)
    TOTAL: 3,028,622

    2010:
    Con: 1,356,739 (47.12%)
    LD: 692,932 (24.07%)
    Lab: 564,581 (19.61%)
    UKIP: 123,237 (4.28%)
    Greens: 42,677 (1.48%)
    Others: 98,951 (3.44%)
    TOTAL: 2,879,117

    Changes:
    Con: +0.62%
    Lab: +1.83%
    UKIP: +14.16%
    LD: -16.04%
    Greens: +2.36%
    Others: -2.93%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 0.61%

  19. By-election in Mile Cross.
    County Council seat

    July 17, 2015
    Mile Cross, Norfolk (2015 city; 2013 county)

    Lab 51.8 (+15.1, +7.2)
    Con 19.3 (-0.8; +8.7)
    Grn 14.4 (-3.1; -6.8)
    UKIP 10.2 (-9.6; -9.2)
    LD 4.3 (-1.6; +0.1)

    Not sure the 2015 comparison is valid as I’d have thought the CC seat is bigger than the district.

  20. Not much stupendous momentum for the LDs.

  21. Chloe Smith has announced that she is expecting a baby in October –

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich_north_mp_chloe_smith_reveals_she_is_going_to_have_a_baby_1_4479123

    Keith Simpson will help to cover constituency duties during her maternity leave.

  22. Boundary history:

    1950-1955: The County Borough of Norwich wards of Catton, Coslany, Fye Bridge, Heigham, Hellesdon, Mousehold, Thorpe, and Westwick.

    1955-1974: The County Borough of Norwich wards of Catton, Coslany, Fye Bridge, Heigham, Hellesdon, Mousehold, Thorpe, and Westwick, the part of the civil parish of Thorpe-next-Norwich in the Rural District of Blofield and Flegg, and the part of the civil parish of Sprowston in the Rural District of St Faiths and Aylsham added to the County Borough of Norwich by the Norwich Extension Act 1950.

    1974-1983: The County Borough of Norwich wards of Catton, Coslany, Crome, Heigham, Hellesdon, Mousehold, Thorpe, and Westwick.

    1983-1997: The District of Broadland wards of Catton, Hellesdon North, Hellesdon South East, Hellesdon West, Sprowston Central, Sprowston East, Sprowston South, Sprowston West, Thorpe St Andrew North East, Thorpe St Andrew North West, and Thorpe St Andrew South, and the City of Norwich wards of Catton Grove, Coslany, Crome, Mile Cross, and Mousehold.

    1997-2010: The District of Broadland wards of Catton, Drayton, Hellesdon North, Hellesdon South East, Hellesdon West, Sprowston Central, Sprowston East, Sprowston South, Sprowston West, Taverham, Thorpe St Andrew North East, Thorpe St Andrew North West, and Thorpe St Andrew South, and the City of Norwich wards of Catton Grove, Coslany, Crome, Mile Cross, and Mousehold.

    2010-present: The District of Broadland wards of Hellesdon North West, Hellesdon South East, Old Catton and Sprowston West, Sprowston Central, Sprowston East, Thorpe St Andrew North West, and Thorpe St Andrew South East, and the City of Norwich wards of Catton Grove, Crome, Mile Cross, and Sewell.

  23. This was a safe Labour seat for many years. However, due to the addition of wards from Broadland district, this became more of a Conservative/Labour marginal. This happened in 1983.
    Norwich North was always the more Labour voting seat until 1983 than Norwich South. However, in recent years, this has reversed. Norwich South is the more Labour voting seat than Norwich South.

  24. Not much has been mentioned on this but the Greens are really screwed in the BC’s proposals. Not just losing Pavilion but most of their targets are made worse for them.

    No real help in Bristol West

    Norwich South loses heavily Green Wensum to Norwich North

    Liverpool Riverside picks up some very Green unfriendly wards and loses Greenbank ,the Greens second best ward in Liverpool.

    Cambridge expands into decidedly un green suburbs.

    Lewisham Deptford see’s the Green inclined areas divided amongst two seats.

    Holborn and St Pancreas loses the Greens best ward Highgate.

    The only consolation prize is I believe the new Sheffield West is better for the Greens than the current Central.

  25. If the Boundary changes go ahead – which I seriously doubt! – the transfer of the Wensum ward from Norwich South to Norwich North will improve Labour’s prospects in the latter.

  26. Agree, Norwich was a surprisingly good area for Lab I thought, South becomes more vulnerable but I imagine Lewis would be fine, he’d still be defending a majority of over 5,000 with a big Green vote to squeeze, while Smith’s majority in North is cut to 3,000 making it a better Lab target.

    As is though if the BC’s final draft looks anything like the current proposals I too can’t see the changes being passed.

  27. In other news…….

    Local tv is reporting that Chloe Smith is to start her parental leave this week, which she is planning to share with her husband, with Chloe taking the first six months.

    I am guessing that if a tight vote came up during her leave that she will turn up to vote.

  28. Congratulations to Chloe Smith on the birth of her son

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/norwich_mp_chloe_smith_welcomes_birth_of_son_1_4716539

  29. Pirate party making an appearance here.

    Adrian Holmes (Green);
    Chris Jones (Labour);
    Hugh Lanham (Liberal Democrat)
    Liam Matthews (Pirate Party UK);
    Chloe Smith (Conservative);

  30. Smith hangs on by about 500 votes

  31. Damn close..

  32. Labour has chosen a local councillor as their candidate for Norwich North –

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-north-labour-candidate-selected-at-hustings-1-5323710

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