South Northamptonshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 36607 (60.1%)
Labour: 10191 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 3613 (5.9%)
Green: 2247 (3.7%)
UKIP: 8204 (13.5%)
MAJORITY: 26416 (43.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Northamptonshire. Most of South Northamptonshire council area and some of the Northampton council area.

Main population centres: Brackley, Towcester, Silverstone, Old Stratford, Cosgrove, Wootton, Hardingstone.

Profile: A rural and sparsely populated seat south of Northamptonshire. The largest towns are Brackley and Towcester, both traditional market towns. Towcester, the administrative centre for South Northamptonshire council, is best known for its race course and the seat also contains part of Silverstone race course, which straddles the Northamptonshire/Buckinghamshire border and provides a centre for high tech industry. To the south the constituency stretches close to the outskirts of Milton Keynes, taking in nearby villages like Old Stratford and Cosgrove, while to the north it includes villages like Wootton and Hardingstone which have become affluent suburbs of Northampton itself.

Politics: The seat was created in 2010, mostly carved out of the Daventry seat, and was easily won by the Conservatives.


Current MP
ANDREA LEADSOM (Conservative) Born 1963, Aylesbury. Educated at Tonbridge Girls Grammar and Warwick University. Former banker. South Oxfordshire councillor 2003-2007. Contested Knowsley South 2005. First elected as MP for Northamptonshire South in 2010. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2014-2015. Minister of State for Energy since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 33081 (55%)
Lab: 10380 (17%)
LDem: 12603 (21%)
UKIP: 2406 (4%)
Oth: 1420 (2%)
MAJ: 20478 (34%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREA LEADSOM (Conservative) See above.
LUCY MILLS (Labour)
TOM SNOWDON (Liberal Democrat) Born Hartlepool. Educated at Brinkburn Grammar and Wolverhampton University. Chartered engineer. Contested Derbyshire North East 2005, Amber Valley 2010.
ROGER CLARK (UKIP)
DAMON BOUGHEN (Green)
Links
Comments - 300 Responses on “Northamptonshire South”
  1. Rivers10

    I think Mark Harper would be an interesting leader of the Conservative party. I think he used to be chief whip, he is not favoured by May but that could be an advantage as he will not have association of being a minister in her failed administration.

    Harper did have a stumble when he was a minister about the nationality and therefore immigrant status of a cleaner but I think that is in the past and he is clearly a capable and highly intelligent person who looks the part.

  2. I think at this point half of the Tories’ MPs have been touted as an outsider for the leadership, but Mark Harper is not a name I have seen mentioned before in that context.

    The biggest dividing line in terms of the Tory leadership will probably not be Leave vs Remain – for the sake of the Tory party’s future, the leadership’s contest cannot be a reopening of old wounds. The dichotomy will be continuity versus clean break – expect the final two to be a cabinet minister and a fresh face.

  3. Leadsom’s comments yesterday about Jane Austen being “one of our greatest authors” merely underline how thick she is – which perfectly explains her current popularity amongst grassroots

    I’m ashamed to say I used to support thay party

  4. Oh, there are idiots saying idiotic things on both sides of the house. Why can’t you just make your comments a bit more patriotic?

  5. Andrea Leadsom is named as the Minister who complained directly to No10 regarding previous inappropriate comments made by Fallon.

  6. All sounds a bit Carry On Camping to me.

    Losing your job for making a joke 6 years ago about where a lady could warm up her cold hands sounds a bit harsh to me. A verbal or written warning would be more normal, but of course without a proper complaints procedure that can’t happen.

    We are in danger of focusing on the trivial here whilst the serious misdemeanours go unpunished.

  7. As i said on the Sevenoaks thread – Leadson’s got form here – remember her CV full of stuff she had never actually done and supporting leaving the EU despite once describing it as a “disaster”

    And even if he had said it, it’s hardly a hanging offence –

    You could tell from his resignation speech that Fallon had been forced out

  8. Well if you can’t handle a mildly crude joke you certainly can’t handle being Prime Minister. I think this will backfire on Leadsome and her chances of climbing the greasy pole – not that they were very high in the first place. She’s allowed herself to become a foolish pawn in Gavin Williamson’s Francis Urquhart plotting to get to the top.

  9. Daily Mail commenters/ readers- surely Leadsom’s most natural constituency- don’t appear happy with her at all. She may have escaped the sack in the next reshuffle due to her ‘whistleblowing’, but she’s surely ruined her prospects long term. Not that she deserves to be in the Cabinet in the first place anyway.

  10. Of course I could be wrong, but for Fallon either to resign or to be asked to resign (surely the latter) there must have been much more serious stuff talked about than just a remark about warming hands.

  11. That’s certainly what the leaked dossier states/ alleges. But a substantial number of the entries may very bee total fabrication.

  12. In this slightly mad world we are living in I don’t think it’ll affect Leadsom’s prospects that much either way.

    Ordinarily, when it’s backs to the wall stuff and you knife a colleague over a pretty trivial (in the grand scheme of things) comment that was probably misplaced banter… you’d be one for the black book, not to be trusted.

    She retains popularity with lots of the right wing activists and in a party split between hard Brexit types, pragmatists on both sides and hard remainers… getting rid of someone who is on the rival side wouldn’t lose her any support she wouldn’t ever get.

    A bit like Farage and the comments about HIV.

  13. @Luke

    I’m not so sure. The right-wing press have gone after her. That’s problematic for her in two ways – firstly, her elevation thus far was largely down to their support. She has not otherwise distinguished herself by good sense or competence.
    The second is that as study after study has shown, that section of the press remains influential amongst activists. So their attitude towards her will rub off.

    As someone who considers Leadsom to have few, if any, redeeming features it is depressing to see her finally struggling not for her manifold failings but for speaking out on an important issue for a change.

    There is a whiff of the end of Anne Widdecomb’s career here – her lionisation by the Tory press ended not because she was terrible at her job or because she kept saying attention-seeking and awful things, but because she embarrassed a powerful male Tory by saying something true that was not to the political liking of powerful right-wing press figures.

  14. “As someone who considers Leadsom to have few, if any, redeeming features…”

    What about her being a mother? 😉

  15. @Polltroll

    That just means she has a very real stake in massive self-promotion 😉

  16. Northamptonshire County Council is now being overseen by commissioners.

    James Brokenshire living up to his name…

  17. Whittlewood by-election, 21.06.18:

    LibDem 366
    Cons 266
    Lab 44

    LibDem Gain.

  18. More veiled ‘threats’ from the two faced Andrea Leadsom today (stating that she backs the PM, but that the draft withdrawal must be amended). I cannot wait for this entire mess to all be over and non entities like her can crawl back under their rocks (Leadsom has no Cabinet career without leaving the EU being an ‘issue’).

  19. Andrea Leadsom has said in an interview in the Telegraph minsters trying to block no deal think they know more than the voters and that they will fail our country and weaken the UK’s negotiating hand. Interesting comments.

  20. No offence BM11, but it’s not that interesting or novel in my opinion. It’s the same old crap she’s been pumping out like a robot for God knows how long.

  21. Interesting comments from Leadsom today…stating that Eurosceptics in the Tory party should not be ‘purist’ about the backstop, and hinting that they should back the deal even if there are no formal further legal commitments/ pledges from the EU. That’s quite a shift in tone.

  22. Leadsom knows No deal would be a risky for the Country and for the Tory Party’s future.

  23. All options from here are risky for the country and the Tory party’s future. No Deal obviously much more disruptive in the short term but IMO the Deal will be similarly damaging in the longer term, perhaps more so. Revoke exceptionally damaging politically.

  24. ‘All options from here are risky for the country and the Tory party’s future. No Deal obviously much more disruptive in the short term but IMO the Deal will be similarly damaging in the longer term, perhaps more so. Revoke exceptionally damaging politically.’

    That’s why the country needs – like never before – a pro EU, pro business, socially liberal centrist party

    The whole Brexit saga has tarnished the Tory brand;s business credentials massively – and the only reason it hasn’t been focused is because the only thing worst than a No Deal Brexit from a business pint of view is a Corbyn-led Labour government

    There’s a huge amount of space for that type of party in British politics at the moment and whilst it’s far more likely bot to happen there’s millions like me who couldn’t wouldn’t and won’t vote either Labour or Tory in their current forms. i speak to such people every single day of the week, and I like in Left-wing Brighton & Hove

  25. The decimation of the LD’s in 2015 was pretty unfortunate all round I think, for may different reasons. My parents feel the same way as you Tim about the need for a centrist, sensible party.

  26. There must be some people because at least 2 of the Brighton seats have been held by both Labour and Tories of recent. The council I assume isn’t going back to the Greens either

  27. We did have sensible centrism for a long time but it did kind of eat itself and Roy Jenkins used to say a healthy democracy is one that changes. Sensible cebtrism might make you happy but one ideology dominating for decades as it has done isn’t healthy

  28. But there’s nothing in the UK like say the VVD in the Netherlands – and there never has been. The LDs have effectively become a moderate social democratic ever since they combined with the SDP – despite the efforts of Clegg to move them to the centre

    Their problem is that their more left leaning former supporters still haven’t forgiven them for their participation in the coalition government and putting their name on all those policies Osbourne unveiled to hit the poor where it hurt most

  29. “Sensible centrism might make you happy but one ideology dominating for decades as it has done isn’t healthy”

    Bit of an exaggeration there. At a push, “sensible centrism” dominated from Blair’s victory in 1997 through to Corbyn’s election and then the Brexit vote in 2015/16. That’s not even two full decades. Postwar social democracy dominated for far longer than that, more than 30 years. Even if permanent centrism isn’t healthy, I’d argue that the polarised nationalism we are getting engulfed in now is much less healthy.

  30. As you know, Tim, voters in your constituency have the alternative of Caroline Lucas and although she is probably herself almost as left wing as Jeremy Corbyn, she has managed to build up an exceptionally strong personal vote. I know of very strong Tories who willingly vote for her.

    I suppose the closest examples of what you were looking for were MPs like Jeremy Browne and Norman Lamb (I must say I’m surprised he didn’t have a second go after Tim Farron resigned). However, Browne lost his seat in 2015 and now works in the City, and Lamb is hardly ever heard of – he is rather more Eurosceptic than the rest of his party, which might explain it. I am surprised, though, given his excellent work on mental health, which the media have never made enough of in my opinion.

  31. Hemmy: “sensible centrism” dominated from Blair’s victory in 1997 through to Corbyn’s election and then the Brexit vote in 2015/16.

    I’d argue that John Major was more of a “sensible centrist” than David Cameron ever was.

  32. The Major administration was far more centrist than Cameron’s austerity-obsessed government and just as centrist as Blair’s New Labour

    I voted for Lucas myself in 2017 as there was no lib dems on the ballot and I felt her hard work as a constituency MP deserved my endorsement despite being very different from myself politically. The orange book lib dems was probably the closest thing we have had to the VVD but they were not popular in their own party

  33. “I’d argue that John Major was more of a “sensible centrist” than David Cameron ever was.”

    How old were you when Major was in government?

    Not even Thatcher dared to privatise the railways or the coal mines.

    And though Major himself was fairly moderate, he was shackled to a party full of hard Thatcherites, and hence had to pursue a fairly hard right course on many things.

  34. “voters in your constituency have the alternative of Caroline Lucas and although she is probably herself almost as left wing as Jeremy Corbyn, she has managed to build up an exceptionally strong personal vote. I know of very strong Tories who willingly vote for her.”

    In the current political environment I’d probably be tempted.

  35. ‘And though Major himself was fairly moderate, he was shackled to a party full of hard Thatcherites, and hence had to pursue a fairly hard right course on many things.’

    With the privatisations that’s true but it’s worth noting the Major government deemed tuition fees a no-go area – for fear of being portrayed as too right-wing – only for Blair to go ahead and introduce them once he got into office

    Compared to the Thatcher governments,the tone of the Major governments was considerably more moderate, although some of their policies do seem quite right wing by today’s standards – opposition to the minimum wage and any firm of home rule – if not necessarily at the time the Lib Dems in their 1992 manifesto were opposed to the minimum wage)

  36. Yes that’s a fair statement.

    The centre ground has drifted rightwards on some things and leftwards on others

  37. I was 6 when Blair won in 1997, so I defer to other people’s assessment of the Major premiership.

    Sounds like he suffered from being driven by Thatcherites who had run out of Thatcherite reforms because Thatcher had already done them all. (Though this accusation could also be levelled at Cameron.)

  38. Major won the leadership by pretending to be the right wing Thatcherite candidate. On this basis he persuaded Tebbit not to stand in the leadership election, a betrayal Tebbit has bitched about ever since. Given this you can understand why Major generated a lot of resentment on the right. In 1991 and 1992 he got a lot of credit for sorting out the disaster of the poll tax and the Gulf War; that muted the right for a bit and saw him through the 92 election, but the pit closures and Black Wednesday in the autumn started the eruption which he never recovered from (arguably they still haven’t fully recovered to this day).

  39. ‘Major won the leadership by pretending to be the right wing Thatcherite candidate.’

    i don;t think that’s right as Major’s leadership pitch was based around pledges like wanting to create a classless society’

    I think Tory Party members (including Thatcher herself) mistook him for a right-winger and voted accordingly

    There’s actually nothing in his past as an MP to suggest he was on any wing of the party

    Also many forget that in the run up to the 92 election. Major was initially seen as having secured a British victory at Maastricht by securing an opt out from the Social charter/chapter etc/ It was only after the election and the ERM calamity that Maastricht became a millstone around the government’s neck

    If you speak to any Tory MPs in the 92-97 Parliament they will tell you that Major’s tactics were always based around pretending to whoever he was talking to that he was on their side – a trick all politicians play but which Major was a little better at than he is often given credit for

  40. Yeah, Thatcher was kidding herself when it came to Major. I think she basically wasn’t very well (certainly not mentally or emotionally) by 1990, and she deluded herself into thinking that Major was some kind of Thatcher Mk 2, despite there not really being anything in his political history to suggest such a thing. For one thing, a big part of Thatcherism was a strident, uncompromising tone, which had never been Major’s thing…certainly not in public. Tebbitt had absolutely no chance anyway so his bitching has always sounded hollow to me.

  41. “Tebbitt had absolutely no chance anyway so his bitching has always sounded hollow to me.”

    Yes but he would have drained 50-100 right wing votes away from Major and (depending on who got through to the final round) made it much more likely that Heseltine won.

  42. “For one thing, a big part of Thatcherism was a strident, uncompromising tone, which had never been Major’s thing…certainly not in public”

    Back to Basics was very strident and certainly in public. And (as an intern at CCHQ at the end of the Major government) I can tell you that Major had an appalling reputation for rudeness to his staff. The mask finally slipped when his affair with Edwina Currie was revealed (earlier affairs were mysteriously laughed off or brushed under the carpet).

    By contrast Thatcher was known to be exceptionally polite to all her staff (cabinet colleagues were another matter).

    Major had such a hard time politically I guess I can understand him getting angry a lot though.

  43. Yes, I remember you mentioning about Major being rude in private previously (that’s why I said ‘certainly not in public’). I think to get anywhere in politics you have to be a bit of an arsehole frankly,particularly when you are as grey and as unspectacular (on paper) as John Major. Thatcher seemed to save her rudeness for her competitors/ opposition…people who could answer back, to sone extent. It is to her great credit that ahe was polite to her staff…contrast with surly, sulky Heath, who couldn’t even be bothered to learn the ladies names.

  44. “contrast with surly, sulky Heath, who couldn’t even be bothered to learn the ladies names.”

    Heath was rude to everyone, both the Duke and the dustman, allies and enemies. More egalitarian than Brown and Major who were mostly only rude to those who couldn’t answer back.

    Stories about Heath’s rudeness to party activists are legendary in every Conservative association in the land (though those who are old enough to remember are now very few and far between). CCHQ used to beg him not to go and help out in by-elections etc. One crusty old Tory councillor in Bromley, sadly dead now, told me at great length how rude Heath was when visiting his ward in the early 70s.

  45. That stuff about John Major being rude to his staff is really surprising because it flies in the face of the ‘nice guy John’ image that largely served him well during his difficult time as PM and did seem genuine

    That the Tories were below 30% in the polls for the bulk of his tenure might be a defence of sorts, but I still struggle to see John Major – a man I respect considerably more today than i did when he was PM, for fairly obvious reasons – in that light

    A little goes a long way and I guess a lot of it is down to charisma and confidence.

    Some of the best football managers in the world, go out of their way to befriend and look out for club employees like the canteen staff and the cleaners, and are subsequently adored. High profile managers in that category include the likes Sir Alex Ferguson and Jurgen Klopp – two very charismatic and self-confident figureheads – and I’d be interested which MPs adopt a similar approach in their dealings with the people there trying to make their lives easier

    It says a Hell of a lot about you

  46. Leadsom on @BBCr4today says we still need to go over the cliff even if we are not ready, because the certainty of seeing the ground coming up towards us will be better than the uncertainty of sitting at the cliff top having a rethink.

  47. “Leadsom on @BBCr4today says we still need to go over the cliff even if we are not ready, because the certainty of seeing the ground coming up towards us will be better than the uncertainty of sitting at the cliff top having a rethink.”

    Personally, I don’t find that metaphor very convincing….

  48. An awful metaphor, particularly as we have a mental.health crisis at the moment. But this woman is both profoundly stupid and vindictive, so it’s no surprise.

    (Now just wait for LO to come riding in to defend her, bleating about her being a workaholic who would be willing to sell her family members to get ahead).

  49. I’m not sure being “willing to sell your own family members to get ahead” is a particularly desirable trait anyway.

  50. Of course it isn’t.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)