Newton Abbot

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22794 (47.3%)
Labour: 4736 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 11506 (23.9%)
Green: 2216 (4.6%)
UKIP: 6726 (14%)
TUSC: 221 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11288 (23.4%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Devon. Part of the Teignbridge council area.

Main population centres: Newton Abbot, Kingsteignton, Dawlish, Teignmouth.

Profile: Covers the town of Newton Abbot and the strip of coast between the estuaries of the Teign and the Exe. Newton Abbot is a historic market town that boomed as a Victorian railway town, it was the home of the south Devon Railway works and British Rail had workshops here until 1981. To the east of the town is the wide estuary of the River Teign and the collection of villages around it. On the coast Dawlish and Teignmouth are both former fishing villages that became popular seaside resorts with the coming of the railway and have remained popular with tourists and people retiring to the coast.

Politics: There has been a seat centred on this area since 1983, called Teignbridge until boundary changes in 2010. It was originally a solid Conservative seat but in some previous elections has been a close marginal between the Tories and Liberal Democrats.


Current MP
ANNE-MARIE MORRIS (Conservative) Born 1957, London. Educated at Bryanston School and Oxford University. Former lawyer and owner of a marketing company. West Sussex County councillor 2005. First elected as MP for Newton Abbot in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20774 (43%)
Lab: 3387 (7%)
LDem: 20251 (42%)
UKIP: 3088 (6%)
Oth: 783 (2%)
MAJ: 523 (1%)
2005*
Con: 21593 (35%)
Lab: 6931 (11%)
LDem: 27808 (46%)
UKIP: 3881 (6%)
Oth: 685 (1%)
MAJ: 6215 (10%)
2001
Con: 23332 (39%)
Lab: 7366 (12%)
LDem: 26343 (44%)
UKIP: 2269 (4%)
MAJ: 3011 (5%)
1997
Con: 24679 (39%)
Lab: 11311 (18%)
LDem: 24398 (39%)
Oth: 2557 (4%)
MAJ: 281 (0%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Teignbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNE-MARIE MORRIS (Conservative) See above.
ROY FREER (Labour) Publican.
RICHARD YOUNGER-ROSS (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Surrey. Educated at Walton County Secondary School for Boys and Oxford Polytechnic. Contested Teignbridge 1992, 1997. MP for Teignbridge 2001-2010.
ROD PEERS (UKIP)
STEVEN SMYTH-BONFIELD (Green) Counsellor.
SEAN BROGAN (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 239 Responses on “Newton Abbot”
  1. Newton Abbot itself and the Newton Abbot rural district plus Ashburton and Buckfastleigh were in Totnes. Teignmouth and Dawlish and the rural area to the West of the Exe were in Tiverton

  2. Indeed, yes. Totnes was a pretty large seat in those days.

  3. Thanks Pete. I had guessed that the southern bit would have been in Totnes but never imagined Tiverton stretching south of Exeter. I had wondered whether Teignmouth and Dawlish might have been in Torquay.

  4. Tiverton continued to stretch south of Exeter even after the formation of the Teignbridge seat since it continued to include Starcross. I think Starcross is now in Newton Abbot, though I am not 100% sure.

  5. Starcross is in Newton Abbot.

  6. thanks Tory, thought so.

  7. Ashcroft polling:

    Con 39%
    LD 20%
    UKIP 20%
    Lab 13%

  8. I do wonder if this seat may still be a potential gain for the Liberal Democrats some time in the future, even if they don’t manage to take it back in 2015, with Anne-Marie Morris the incumbent?

    I know that Richard Younger-Ross’ loss in 2010 had certain factors to it that were unique to this contest, even though the Lib Dems usually have a reputation for keeping hold of seats once the incumbent is in, at least until they stand down.

    In the first place, he himself defeated Patrick Nicholls on his third attempt in 2001, thanks to one classic Lib Dem strategy- squeezing the Labour vote to defeat the Conservative. Four years later, he then doubled his majority in holding the seat against Stanley Johnson.

    So after working the seat for years and years, his loss last time obviously hasn’t affected him- He is staying on to fight this seat again, which not many defeated MPs actually do.

  9. Patrick Nicholls of course was not alone in losing in 2001, but increasing his vote share at the same time, albeit only by a very tiny amount.

  10. Didn’t notice the Ashcroft poll from June. If replicated the Lib Dems would have suffered disproportionately at the hands of a UKIP surge. Interesting that the Tory vote didn’t slide that much in his poll.

  11. I’d think Younger-Ross can get those numbers up a bit. I’d guess something like:

    Con 40
    LD 32
    UKIP 16
    Lab 10
    Oth 2

  12. 2013 CC result – changes from 2009
    Liberal Democrats – 7,208 – 32.61% (+0.55%)
    Conservatives – 6,939 – 31.39% (-9.32%)
    UKIP – 5,430 – 24.56% (+12.96%)
    Labour – 1,835 – 8.30% (+3.33%)
    Greens – 614 – 2.78% (-6.53%)
    Other – 78 – 0.35% (-0.62%)

    Interestingly, in Richard Younger-Ross’ division the Lib Dems increased their vote share by 4.00%

  13. Regarding the UKIP opinion poll being perhaps more than expected, it is worth pointing out that UKIP HQ is actually in Newton Abbot.

    Perhaps factors related to this have provided a small boost?

  14. Anyone heard talk of UKIP Teignbridge District councillor, taking over as PPC?

  15. LD 19000
    CON 16000
    UKIP 6000
    LAB 2000

  16. Reno, J (LD) 22,000
    *CON 14,000
    UKIP 11,000
    LAB 3,000

  17. Now that is certainly momentum of the stupendous variety, Mr Plopwell!

  18. Don’t be silly, this is a nailed on labour gain! However the margin will be slight around 2000 over UKIP with the tories losing their deposit.

  19. Drove though The Dawlish end of this constituency yesterday, lots of vote Anne-Marie Morris poster, don’t know if this is the Tory End of the seat or if the Lib-Dems have lost ground and it will be a more comfortable Conservative hold.

  20. Dawlish has not generally been great for the Lib Dems

  21. “Don’t be silly, this is a nailed on labour gain! However the margin will be slight around 2000 over UKIP with the tories losing their deposit.”

    LOL!

  22. Iain – the Tories underperformed here in 2013. Their agent, Neil Wilson tweeted, “most UKIP voters will be dead within 10 years” and clearly it didnt help the Tories. I see he’s now a PPC in East Belfast.

  23. The Tory equivalent of being sent to the salt mines in Siberia..?

  24. I’d imagine this one’ll be a comfortable Tory hold – surely the Lib Dems will be concentrating their resources on holding Torbay

  25. This seat should not have been lost by LibDems in the first place… most useful post is Iain’s upthread on 2013 results… doesn’t give a good reason to “focus on Torbay”…

    I doubt Newton Abbott becomes less of a target by having a held seat next door… I suspect too many are crediting party HQ with much say… branches have now gone feral and what Great George Street says branches should do is generally regarded with contempt…

  26. fair point though there’s quite a few seats they should never have lost (Montgomeryshire springs to mind for starters) but they still did. This will be a comfortable Tory hold this time at least

    Also I wouldn’t read too much into the county council election results – I think the same elections had the Lib Dems winning Harborough

  27. Mikeinsdevon:
    The interesting thing in the result was the swing. Lib Dems carried Harborough due to local strength, but this has been around for a while and has not converted to Parliamentary elections. The key thing in seats like this and OxWAb are that they swung from the Tories to the Lib Dems.

    I think this will be a Tory hold, but should remain in play looking to 2020

  28. Tories are certainly winning the poster war in Dawlish and Shaldon, but Lib Dems winning in Teignmouth and Newton Abbot. Tory campaign seems to be unravelling as Annemarie Morris tweets against the Tory council’s Garden Waste Charge (or Garden Tax as the Lib Dems would say ); she also getting criticism for taking up the issue of changes to Teignmouth and Dawlish hospitals, weeks before the election and after the consultation closed.

  29. Garden Waste Charge row made front page of local paper Mid Devon Advertiser. I think a tactical error of the Tories, was not to integrate their local and national campaigns. The Lib Dems have done this –meaning council candidates and their friends and family are working for Younger-Ross as they try to get themselves elected.

  30. Came through here on the train yesterday….masses of posters visible, bizarrely the Lib Dem ones seem to be directed at the trains rather than the road. The Lib Dem ones also very presumptious, saying “Richard Younger-Ross is going to WIN”. Personally I doubt it.

  31. @H.Hemmelig, the posters are on Warren Farm, land the Conservative council want to controversially compulsorily purchase to allow house building elsewhere in Dawlish.
    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/immoral-tactics-of-teignbridge-district-council
    Liberal orange diamonds now going up in true-blue Shaldon, Morris posters are disappearing. Seems this is to do with a planning application. Teignbridge District Council Conservative councillors voting for a planning application submitted by a Conservative Richmond-Upon-Themes borough councillor; Liberal Democrats and UKIP councillor James McMurray (Bristol East PPC) voting against.

  32. Conservative Hold. 3,000 maj.
    But Richard Younger-Ross might make this closer than many expect and could still pull off a surprise if the Tories were complacent.

  33. Conservative majority of over 11,000. 47% vote share against 24% for LibDems. And that is with whatever personal vote Richard Younger-Ross still had.

  34. Richard Younger-Ross came 5th out of 6 in the Devon & Cornwall PCC election, behind Con, Lab, UKIP and one of the independents.

    Nearly 10,000 rejected ballots as well which is disturbing.

  35. The Labour surge continues in south Devon…

    Teignmouth Central by-election:
    Lib Dem: 51.1 % (+ 28.3)
    Con: 29.8 % (- 12.6)
    UKIP: 11.6 % (+ 11.6)
    Lab: 7.5 % (- 8.7)
    Greens didn’t contest this time

    Obviously points to a Lib Dem landslide in 2020… :-p

  36. Not sure which of the Teignbridge seats it’s a part of, but the Lib Dems scored two by-election wins tonight:

    Chudleigh (Teignbridge):
    LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)
    CON: 35.6% (+2.8)
    UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)
    LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)
    Ind(s) and Grn didn’t stand this time.

    Bovey (Teignbridge) result:
    LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
    CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
    IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
    LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
    UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
    IND: 3.6% (+3.6)

    (from Britain Elects on Twitter)

  37. Farron will sweep the South West in 2020. The Tory majority will be in tatters, just like our economy post Brexit.

    Huzzah for Lord Tim of the Lakes

  38. I hope John’s right. The Tories need to up their game and stop complacently assuming that they’ll be re-elected with a landslide despite being one of the crappest governments I can remember.

  39. I think you missed the sarcasm Conservative Estimate

  40. Behind the ramping and bravado, many Tories fear that what John says might happen, at least to a certain degree.

  41. Presumably that’s one win from Cons and one from Independent, if my guesstimates are correct?

  42. Both gained from Conservative according to Britain Elects

  43. I don’t think anyone seriously sees the Lib Dems “sweeping the South West” in 2020 tbh.

    The LDs lost 15 (?) seats in 2015. A very good night in 2020 would see them regain maybe six or seven at most (and that’s probably in ramping territory)

  44. (Thought I’d re-post this from the Central Devon thread since their appears to be a lil bit of confusion here as to who won what last night. As to why its on the Central Devon thread the two wards being discussed are actually in that constituency but anywho…)

    Well here is tonight’s (this mornings) local by election bonanza.

    Some independant win from another independant in Wales, can’t find the figures and nothing really interesting enough to make me go looking for it again.

    Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife)
    SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
    LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
    CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
    LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
    GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
    Boring but clearly Con fortunes in Scotlandshire continue.

    Higher Croft (Blackburn)
    LAB: 58.2% (+12.1)
    UKIP: 25.0% (-8.3)
    CON: 16.7% (-3.8)
    Boring…

    Moreton Hall (St Edmundsbury)
    IND: 56.0% (+22.4)
    CON: 21.7% (-22.1)
    LDEM: 10.4% (+10.4)
    LAB: 7.2% (-15.4)
    UKIP: 4.8% (+4.8)
    Poor for the Cons, this should have been a simple enough hold though the ward does have a history of electing Independandts.

    Bovey (Teignbridge)
    LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
    CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
    IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
    LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
    UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
    IND: 3.6% (+3.6)
    Interesting but anticipated

    Chudleigh (Teignbridge):
    LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)
    CON: 35.6% (+2.8)
    UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)
    LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)
    Ind(s) and Grn didn’t stand
    Ok impressive on the Libs part…

    Blackdown (Taunton Deane)
    LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)
    CON: 22.5% (-30.4)
    IND: 6.3% (+6.3)
    Other Ind and Grn didn’t stand
    Even by local by election standards that’s quite the Plopweilian swing, another great night for the Libs, very poor for the Tories

  45. The +\- figures on the last result don’t make sense.

  46. Ps my apologies the second last result

  47. Chris
    Multiple Independents and the Greens didn’t stand.

  48. Yeah that 50% swing is sort of insane. Plus it’s an historically very strong Tory ward, from my understanding.

  49. Haha, I don’t think the Lib Dems will ever hit quite that level of hubris again.

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