Newport West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 13123 (32.5%)
Labour: 16633 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 1581 (3.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1604 (4%)
Green: 1272 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6134 (15.2%)
MAJORITY: 3510 (8.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Wales ,Gwent. Part of the Newport council area.

Main population centres: Newport, Caerleon.

Profile: Newport grew up as a port during the nineteenth century, shipping the coal from the Welsh valleys. In the twentieth century the port declined and the largest employer instead became the steelworks at Llanwern, more recently the steelworks have closed and Newport has become a home for hi-tech industry. It became a city in 2002. Newport West contains the part of the city to the west of the river Usk, including the city centre and some of the more affluent suburbs. To the north it covers the large 1960s housing development of Bettws and the historical town of Caerleon, notable for its well preserved Roman remains.

Politics: Newport was a single safe Labour seat until 1983, when it was split into East and West divisions along the line of the River Usk. Newport West was initially won by the Conservatives in their 1983 landslide but was taken by Labour in 1987 and has remained in their hands ever since. While there is still substantial Tory support here, they would only be likely to actually win the seat in the case of another landslide of the scale of 1983.


Current MP
PAUL FLYNN (Labour) Born 1935, Cardiff. Educated at St Illtyds College, Cardiff and University College Cardiff. Former chemist in the steel industry. Newport councillor 1972-1981, Gwent county councillor 1974-1982. Contested Denbgh O1974. First elected as MP for Newport West in 1987. health spokesman 1988-1989, social security spokesman 1989-1990.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12845 (32%)
Lab: 16389 (41%)
LDem: 6587 (17%)
PC: 1122 (3%)
Oth: 2777 (7%)
MAJ: 3544 (9%)
2005
Con: 10563 (30%)
Lab: 16021 (45%)
LDem: 6398 (18%)
PC: 1278 (4%)
Oth: 1472 (4%)
MAJ: 5458 (15%)
2001
Con: 9185 (26%)
Lab: 18489 (53%)
LDem: 4095 (12%)
PC: 2510 (7%)
Oth: 784 (2%)
MAJ: 9304 (27%)
1997
Con: 9794 (24%)
Lab: 24331 (61%)
LDem: 3907 (10%)
PC: 648 (2%)
Oth: 1522 (4%)
MAJ: 14537 (36%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK WEBB (Conservative)
PAUL FLYNN (Labour) See above.
ED TOWNSEND (Liberal Democrat) Contested Newport East 2010.
GORDON NORRIE (UKIP)
PIPPA BARTOLOTTI (Green) Born 1953, Cornwall. Retired civil servant and businesswoman. Contested Newport West 2010, South Wales East 2011 Welsh election, Wales region 2014 European election.
SIMON COOPEY (Plaid)
Links
Comments - 37 Responses on “Newport West”
  1. hmm.. no picture of Paul Flynn..? he is one of the more photographed MPs or should I say more youtubed… LoL

  2. rather surprising Libdem surge in the Pillgwenlly ward by-election last week..

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/3316/election-31st-october-2013?page=2

  3. OK, one for the true anorak – even I am not quite enough of an anorak to answer this question. Perhaps Andy, Pete or someone else could help me with this. The question is – Is this a County or a Borough Constituency? Thank you kindly.
    Apparently Paul Flynn has said in the Western Mail that he does intend to stand in 2015.

  4. Wikipeadia say all Gwent’s constituecies are County Constiuencies

  5. thanks Ian, that’s what I thought but couldn’t find confirmation.

  6. Easy Labour win

  7. Interesting looking at Wikipedia, In 1987 a George Winston Roddick was a Liberal Candidate in Newport West.

    Is he the SAME Winston Roddick who stood as an Independent PCC candidate in North Wales?

  8. I think so.

  9. Definitely the same. He also stood in Cardiff South for the LibDems.

  10. Labour hold. 6,000 majority

  11. Majority 3510, similar to the last GE. Could have been closer had Flynn stood down

  12. “Could have been closer had Flynn stood down”

    Do you mean some people actually like Flynn MORE than average then? I had always assumed the people of Newport to be perfectly normal until I read the above.

  13. Although l am not as regular a contributor as l was, l still think we can well do without comments such as the above.

  14. The Guardian has a piece about the Valleys voting Leave.

    Although the body of the article doesn’t really support the headline of Nye B’s town voting Brexit.

    There’s some expert quoted and we know UKIP achieved big swings there in 2015 and last month. The rest is largely just how bleak the area’s prospects are and how racist locals are.

  15. Although Wales does quite well out of the EU, with local development grants and such. But there is perhaps a feeling in the Valleys that much of the largesse goes to Cardiff, among those who are even aware of it.

    My wife’s grandparents live in Blaenau Gwent constituency and this is a fair summary of their views. I haven’t asked, but I suspect they will vote to Leave.

  16. Demographically the Welsh valleys have a lot of similarities with Labour seats in England with high UKIP votes/ likely Leave votes. Wales does not really occupy a different political space in the way Scotland does so I don’t find it very surprising that it will have a high Leave vote in places which have strong Leave demographics. The idea that Welsh voters love Labour so much that they will just do what the Labour party tells them to do is very outdated, if it was in fact ever true.

  17. Back in the days before I retired I was involved with some European funding issues. The main recipients then were the poorer areas of the Valleys and West Wales plus, of course, agricultural areas. Cardiff was well down the list.

  18. Thanks Baz, that’s interesting. One of many areas where perception is perhaps different to reality.

  19. However much funding the EU might give the Valleys, if the people living there can’t perceive any tangible benefit from it isn’t going to make them vote Remain. The same goes for Cornwall – the other part of the UK that gets a lot of funding.

  20. True.

    I think the Retainers’ over claims have backfired.

    Here in Merseyside they have been claiming that Liverpool One, the Waterfront, and so on are all due to EU funding.

    Of course Liverpool One was private investment (Grosvenor owned by the Duke of Westminster). The ‘Three Graces’ including the Liver Buildings existed a century before the EU.

    Yes the Objective One funding has provided a lot of £ for arts organisations, but tourism figures show tourists from abroad visit here for 1. Football, 2. Nightlife, 3. The Beatles/heritage, 4. Albert Dock/Liverpool One/Waterfront, 5. The Grand National festival (in that order). I don’t know of many tourists coming here to visit the Slavery museum.

    The EU has part-funded new pavements here, but I doubt many will vote on that basis.

    Plus, of course Merseyside lost O1 status due to the expansion of the EU.

  21. Paul Flynn has been appointed Shadow Leader of the House and Shadow Welsh Secretary at the age of 81. I assume he was the only Welsh MP willing to take the job…

  22. With all due respect to him, this is truly pathetic.

  23. It is a mess. Especially as shadow leader of the commons has to negotiate and work with the PLP ( as shown by the Documentary on the commons when Angela Eagle was in the post) and also with the Leader of the Commons at times. Paul Flynn is the least suited MP in the PLP for this type of job.

  24. Well, there are less suited MPs, but they’re busy being Leader and Shadow Chancellor

  25. He will also be handling the very complex and somewhat controversial Wales Bill, which starts its committee of the whole house on Tuesday. As BM11 says the problem is not so much that he’s 81 (though it isn’t a great show of strength to be appointing 81 year-olds!) but that its Paul Flynn – one of few MPs even less suited to frontbench responsibilities than Corbyn.

  26. Yeah he is certainly less suited than Corbyn who at least has a mostly calm manner.
    I am surprised to be honest Rosie Winterton and the other whips are all still in place. I doubt any out of the 40 who voted saying they had confidence in Corbyn will actually listen to the whips through at the moment

  27. A councillor friend reckons, and I’m inclined to agree, that at the point the whips (the theoretically units of the leader’s authority within the PLP) defect, the PLP have effectively declared UDI. They’re trying not to rock the boat.

    Similarly, Jon Ashworth hasn’t commented or moved because he’s a member of the finely balanced Labour NEC, and would be replaced by a lefty if he went.

  28. There has been talk of a mass resignation of the whips office and indeed none of the remaining whips are Corbynistas so it would be consistent with the other resignations. I suspect the reason they haven’t is partly because they allow the whole PLP to function, not just the frontbench. If there aren’t any whips then MPs won’t know what they need to do and when, which way to vote and when votes are expected, there will be nobody to organise speakers for debates, to get people on bill cttes., agree pairing arrangements/register absences and undertake many more routine administrative/organisational tasks besides, nobody to act as tellers in divisions etc.. Of course the PLP could appoint their own whips – perhaps the same people currently officially serving Corbyn – which would represent the UDI option MrNameless talks about.

  29. Paul Flynn reported to have called For Jeremy Corbyn to resign during this week’s shadow cabinet meeting. Not confirmed but he is said to have not denied it when asked if it was true. Last year he wrote an article in which he said that he was a good friend of Jeremy’s but did not think he was the most suitable person to be leader of the Labour Party

  30. Now commented on twitter. Saying It was distorted and implying he did say for Party Peace grounds. I suspect other members of the shadow cabinet believe he should resign and that perhaps one of the younger members of the shadow cabinet should stand as a representative of their wing of the labour party

  31. Cllr Alan Morris has defected (Labour > Independent).

  32. From the summary above:

    “While there is still substantial Tory support here, they would only be likely to actually win the seat in the case of another landslide of the scale of 1983.”

    So I suppose in the current climate, this is another potential Conservative gain in Wales (and Newport East can’t be that far behind either).

    The seat was estimated as a 50/50 split at the referendum. UKIPs freefall in Wales leaves a potential 6,000 of 2015 voters looking for pastures new.

    Paul Flynn will be 82 this year which I believe makes him the 3rd oldest MP seeking re-election after the (inevitable) Skinner and David Winnick. In a bad year for Labour, Dennis may be the only octogenarian standing come June 9th.

  33. Paul Flynn announces he is standing down at the next election due to health grounds.

  34. Paul Flynn says he is standing down “as soon as is practical” for health reasons.

    Sadly, the it sounds like whatever he has may be terminal. Wishing him and his family the very best. In the meantime, there’s going to be a by-election…

  35. Possibly – through it could just be the arthritis has worsened.
    My guess is that he might hang on until whenever a meaningful Brexit vote has happened then resign assuming no snap election.

  36. Ruth Jones (not the actress) has been selected for Labour there. With Paul Flynn clearly extremely ill we might hear of his resignation soon now a labour candidate is in place.

  37. Tories selected too

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