New Forest East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27819 (56.3%)
Labour: 6018 (12.2%)
Lib Dem: 4626 (9.4%)
Green: 2327 (4.7%)
UKIP: 8657 (17.5%)
MAJORITY: 19162 (38.8%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire. Part of the New Forest council area.

Main population centres: Totton, Hythe, Holbury, Fawley, Marchwood.

Profile: The bulk of the area of the seat is made up of the New Forest itself, most of which lies within the constituency borders. Most of the electorate, however, are in the towns along Southampton Water and the Southampton suburb of Totton. Esso`s Fawley refinery, near the village of the same name, is the largest oil refinery in the country.

Politics: The New Forest has returned Conservative MPs since 1910, and both the current seats have been Tory since it was split into two in 1997. The eastern division was the slightly more vulnerable of the two, with the Liberal Democrats cutting the Conservative majority to under ten percent in 2005. With the decline of the Lib Dems though this seat has returned to being ultra-safe.

Current MP
JULIAN LEWIS (Conservative) Born 1951, Swansea. Educated at Dynevor School and Oxford University. Former political researcher. Contested Swansea West 1983. First elected as MP for New Forest East in 1997.
Past Results
Con: 26443 (53%)
Lab: 4915 (10%)
LDem: 15136 (30%)
UKIP: 2518 (5%)
Oth: 1024 (2%)
MAJ: 11307 (23%)
Con: 21975 (49%)
Lab: 5492 (12%)
LDem: 15424 (34%)
UKIP: 2344 (5%)
MAJ: 6551 (14%)
Con: 17902 (42%)
Lab: 9141 (22%)
LDem: 14073 (33%)
UKIP: 1062 (3%)
MAJ: 3829 (9%)
Con: 21053 (43%)
Lab: 12161 (25%)
LDem: 15838 (32%)
MAJ: 5215 (11%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
JULIAN LEWIS (Conservative) See above.
ANDREW POPE (Labour) Educated at Leeds University. Southampton councillor.
BRUCE TENNENT (Liberal Democrat)
Comments - 9 Responses on “New Forest East”
  1. Does anyone know if Phillip Fawkes is standing for UKIP here?

  2. Conservative Hold. 15,000 maj

  3. Something very odd about this result.
    Turnout down by 8,000.
    Completely out of line.
    Although the Tory vote is rather poor in percentage terms it does look fairly evenly spread.

    Looks like a blunder at the count

    (unless it’s the Stockton North 1983 Returning Officer. Obviously not).


    C hold

    *Julian Lewis (C) 20,819 (49.05%, –3.80%)
    Roy Swales (UKIP) 8,657 (20.39%, +15.36%)
    Andrew Pope (Lab) 6,018 (14.18%, +4.35%)
    Bruce Tennent (LD) 4,626 (10.90%, –19.35%)
    Sally May (Green) 2,327 (5.48%, +3.44%)
    C maj 12,162 (28.65%)

    9.58% swing C to UKIP

    Electorate 72,720; Turnout 42,447 (58.37%, –10.31%)

    2010: C maj 11,307 (22.60%) – Turnout 50,036 (68.68%)

    Lewis (C) 26,443 (52.85%); Scriven (LD) 15,136 (30.25%); Sopowski (Lab) 4,915 (9.82%); Day (UKIP) 2,518 (5.03%); Golden (Green) 1,024 (2.05%)

  4. Thanks Andy.
    Excellent spreadsheet also.

    (Not sure where that other version of the New Forest E result originated.
    It was like that in the paper on the Saturday (9 May) and in the PA website which is otherwise very good.

  5. My copy of the Times and the Telegraph from the Saturday had the correct figure but I bought them quite late in the day. The earlier editions may have had the mistake, (assuming papers still have early editions)…

  6. There are always mistakes at every election. The standard figures used by everyone for example have 3 cases where two alphabetically neighbouring constituencies have the same electorate. There were a number of electorate errors in 2010 that never got corrected (eg Regents Park).

  7. Useless fact: this would likely be the constituency of Francis Urquhart, the villainous fictional Tory MP from House of Cards. His constituency home is in Lyndhurst, which is now in this seat. Prior to 1997, when the stories were written, there was only one New Forest seat. I watched the first series not long ago. Excellent, I thought, and it struck me that Jacob Rees-Mogg is like a pound shop version of the very camp Urquhart.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)