Newcastle upon Tyne North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10536 (23.5%)
Labour: 20689 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 4366 (9.7%)
Green: 1515 (3.4%)
UKIP: 7447 (16.6%)
Others: 338 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10153 (22.6%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Tyne and Wear. Part of the Newcastle council area.

Main population centres:

Profile: The western part of the city of Newcastle upon Tyne, once a driver of heavy industry, shipbuilding and coal mining, now a hub for service industry and retail.

Politics:


Current MP
CATHERINE MCKINNELL (Labour) Born 1976, Denton. Educated at Sacred Heart Comprehensive and Edinburgh University. Former Employment solicitor. First elected as MP for Newcastle North in 2010. Shadow Exechequer Secretary 2012-2013. Shadow Attorney General since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 7966 (18%)
Lab: 17950 (41%)
LDem: 14536 (33%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
Oth: 1604 (4%)
MAJ: 3414 (8%)
2005*
Con: 6022 (16%)
Lab: 19224 (50%)
LDem: 12201 (32%)
Oth: 997 (3%)
MAJ: 7023 (18%)
2001
Con: 7424 (20%)
Lab: 21874 (60%)
LDem: 7070 (19%)
MAJ: 14450 (40%)
1997
Con: 8793 (19%)
Lab: 28125 (62%)
LDem: 6578 (15%)
MAJ: 19332 (43%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEPHEN BATES (Conservative) Born Gateshead. Educated at Nottingham University.
CATHERINE MCKINNELL (Labour) See above.
ANITA LOWER (Liberal Democrat)
TIM MARRON (UKIP)
ALISON WHALLEY (Green)
VIOLET ROOK (North East Party)
Links
Comments - 30 Responses on “Newcastle upon Tyne North”
  1. 2012 council election results for this constituency:

    Labour: 10,270 (38.2%)
    Liberal Democrats: 8,022 (29.8%)
    Newcastle First: 3,938 (14.6%)
    Independent: 2,254 (8.4%)
    Conservatives: 1,792 (6.7%)
    Greens: 364 (1.4%)
    BNP: 246 (0.9%)

    Total votes: 26,886

    Compared to the 2010 council elections results here:

    Liberal Democrats: -12.3%
    Labour: +2.9%
    Conservatives: -8.5%
    BNP: -4.5%
    UKIP: -0.8%
    Greens: +0.8%
    Newcastle First: +14.6%

    Total votes: 43,297

    Swing from LD to Lab: 7.6%

    Interestingly, in 2010 the Liberal Democrats led locally by 6.8%, yet lost the parliamentary vote by 7.7%. Raw figures below:

    Liberal Democrats: 18,226 (42.1%)
    Labour: 15,285 (35.3%)
    Conservatives: 6,597 (15.2%)
    BNP: 2,318 (5.4%)
    UKIP: 363 (0.8%)
    Greens: 263 (0.6%)
    Independent: 245 (0.6%)

    Total votes: 43,297

  2. Labour’s majority could shoot up here to around 10,000 I would have thought.

  3. If 2010 is any indication, the LDs do better locally than nationally here. That, and the fact this Newcastle First group was the recipient of ex Tory and LD voters – which won’t be a factor in the parliamentary vote – suggests Labour are doing much better off than the mere 9 point gap in 2012 would suggest.

  4. I expect to see a lot of Labour effort going into securing this seat for the long term and ending the Lib Dem threat here.

    The coalition has done much of that work but the Lib Dems remain stubbornly strong here (even post coalition) at a local level taking 30% of the vote here in 2012.

  5. N Jesmond Ward: Newcastle-upon-Tyne:
    Lib Dem 711
    Lab 320
    Con 117
    UKIP 112
    Green 94
    Lib Dem Hold – swing 13.6% from Lab to Lib Dem

  6. Erm, okay?

  7. Fairly close to the result I expected – this is the ward where I grew up.

    Heavily student ward where the non-student housing is very expensive. Students aren’t here – ergo a very easy LD hold.

  8. Yes. Similar to some of the south Liverpool wards before we gave up on the LDs. Was this once a Tory ward?

  9. Yes most of the area round Town Moor used to be strongly Tory. The old Newcastle N was a very safe Tory seat until about 1966 when Labour started to challenge there. It was never won until it had essentially become Newcastle Central, in 1987.

  10. I know this area. I can’t imagine being anything but labour to be honest and I’m surprised that it was not so long ago this wasn’t a labour area.

  11. Ah very good point about the students. I imagine the result might be similar in some of the Sheffield wards near me (Broomhill, Crookes) in a by-election during summer.

  12. Robbie – you clearly don’t know this area.

    It is lecturer shopping at waitrose-land in the South-East of the ward, the students who are prepared to live in the most expensive student housing in the city live in the south-west and very wealthy £1M detached housing land in the north.

  13. I drew a map showing the extent of these areas at

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4818/election-28th-august

  14. Politically I do not know the area perhaps, I’m just surprised at how big the lib dem support is there, but I’ve been there many a time and geographically I know exactly where this is.

  15. Prediction (on a turnout of 44k)

    Labour 18k
    Tory 8.5k
    Liberal 8.5k
    Ukip 5.5k
    Green 3k
    N.E. Party 0.5k

  16. Labour Hold. 12,000 majority

  17. Lib Dem gain – 5,000 majority

  18. SNP Gain 20000 majority.

  19. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35281203

    Another resignation from the shadow cabinet.

    It’s these kinds things the Momentum group don’t understand or even care about, because of their cult like worship of Corbyn. No doubt Catherine McKinnell will be labelled all kinds of things for this.

  20. A slightly strange one. McKinnell is not a noted ‘moderate’ and was somebody I had down as a ‘make it work’ type quite happy to be in the shadow cabinet and so unlikely to resign. Given the need for a lawyer there is a limited field to replace her with – Andy Slaughter (currently lead Justice spokesperson for Labour in the Commons), Karl Turner (shadow Justice/shadow Solicitor General) and Sir Kier Starmer (shadow Immigration) are probably the only candidates. Appointing any of them would clearly have a knock-on effect requiring another appointment.

  21. Karl Turner has got the nod.

  22. Given that she could have gone in last week’s reshuffle if she felt unable to continue, this looks awfully like part of a deliberate campaign to destabilise the leadership.

  23. After their progress here last year, this has undoubtedly become the Conservatives’ best prospect in a major northern city.

    Don’t get me wrong, a 10,000 majority is a very strong majority, but compared with their minuscule vote shares in Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield, this is a constituency the Conservatives should really target. Give it 2-3 elections, anything is possible if they work hard and the demographics move in their favour.

    Being competitive and getting elected in West Gosforth ward in May would be a solid start. They could then start working both of the Jesmond wards and build up from there.

  24. Merseymike & Robbietriestopredictpolitics – yes, I think Lembit Opik said in an interview that Gosforth was a Tory ward until he gained it very narrowly in the 1990s.

    I assume he did what a lot of LibDems do and kept moving to further his political ambitions.

    Although Estonia > Ulster > Newcastle > London > rural Wales > cruise ships, must mean he’s never really settled anywhere.

    His latest interview last month was about how lonely and depressed he gets. It seems to be a trait of a lot of outwardly gregarious people such as Robin Williams et al.

  25. Talking to people who know this seat well they think the Torries are in with a good chance of taking it. I must say it does look like a seat that could fall if Labour fall under 150 seats or so but I am only going by paper demographics as I have never been to the North East. I think the other two Newcastle seats are not in any danger unless Labour are under 100 seats.

  26. If this goes blue despite the Tories not having even won one council seat in Newcastle in decades then Labour should just pack up and go home

  27. I think things could be very bad for Lab in the NE but unlikely they’ll lose this one

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