Morley & Outwood

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18776 (38.9%)
Labour: 18354 (38%)
Lib Dem: 1426 (3%)
Green: 1264 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7951 (16.5%)
Others: 479 (1%)
MAJORITY: 422 (0.9%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of the Wakefield council area and part of the Leeds council area.

Main population centres: Morley, Outwood, East Ardsley, Wrenthorpe.

Profile: A pair of small towns between Leeds and Wakefield, both former industrial towns turned into residential dormitories. Morley was once a textile and coal mining town, now a hub for new housing development. Outwood was a former pit village, but has seen a massive expansion of new build housing over the last few decades. The area is also, perhaps somewhat incongrously in this post-industrial landscape, a centre for growing forced rhubarb. The area between Morley, Rothwell and Wakefield has for centuries been the centre for rhubarb growing and in 2010 won Protected Designation of Origin status.

Politics: Morley and Outwood was previously the seat of Ed Balls, Gordon Brown's ally and the Labour shadow Chancellor under Ed Miliband. After boundary changes in 2010 the Tories ran an energetic campaign hoping to defeat Ed Balls and provide a "Portillo moment" of the election, but fell tantalising short. In 2015 the situation was the opposite, no one expected a Tory victory here given the polls were pointing to Labour gains, but Balls was the most high profile casualty of the surprise Conservative victory.


Current MP
ANDREA JENKYNS (Conservative) Born Beverley. Former business development manager, music teacher and singer. Lincolnshire councillor 2009, 2009-2013. First elected as MP for Morley & Outwood in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17264 (35%)
Lab: 18365 (38%)
LDem: 8186 (17%)
BNP: 3535 (7%)
Oth: 1506 (3%)
MAJ: 1101 (2%)
2005*
Con: 8227 (19%)
Lab: 20570 (48%)
LDem: 6819 (16%)
BNP: 2271 (5%)
Oth: 4608 (11%)
MAJ: 12343 (29%)
2001
Con: 9829 (26%)
Lab: 21919 (57%)
LDem: 5446 (14%)
UKIP: 1248 (3%)
MAJ: 12090 (31%)
1997
Con: 12086 (26%)
Lab: 26836 (58%)
LDem: 5087 (11%)
Oth: 529 (1%)
MAJ: 14750 (32%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Morley & Rothwell

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREA JENKYNS (Conservative) Born Beverley. Business development manager, music teacher and singer. Lincolnshire councillor 2009, 2009-2013.
ED BALLS (Labour) Born 1967, Norwich. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Financial journalist and advisor to Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor and Chancellor. MP for Normanton 2005 to 2015. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2006-2007, Secretary of State for Children and Schools 2007-2010. Shadow home secretary 2010-2011, Shadow Chancellor 2011-2015. A close ally of Gordon Brown throughout the last Labour government. Balls was elected as MP for Normanton in 2005, but saw his seat abolished in the boundary review, despite legal attempts to have the boundary commission recommendations overturned. In March 2007 he was selected to fight the Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Colin Challen. Unsuccessfully ran for the Labour leadership in 2010. Balls is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford.
REBECCA TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975, Todmorden. Educated at Leeds University. Contested Rotherham 2010. MEP for Yorkshire 2012-2014.
DAVID DEWS (UKIP) Wakefield councillor since 2014.
MARTIN HEMINGWAY (Green) Teacher and former archeologist. Leeds councillor 1990-2002 for the Labour party. Contested Leeds North West 2005, 2010, Yorkshire and Humber region 2009, 2014 European elections.
ARNIE CRAVEN (Yorkshire First) Born Leeds. Educated at Leeds University.
Links
Comments - 705 Responses on “Morley & Outwood”
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  1. Canvassing here is not whether it is Labour, Tory or UKIP (in that order) but more like has anybody found a Lib Dem voter today?

  2. The LD’s will almost certainly lose their deposit, I think.

    There will be four or five lost deposits in Leeds for them.

  3. On the debate, I was most impressed with Andrea, of all of them.

    A couple of things I picked up on – she was fairly effective at pulling Balls on certain things, but she rushed into the mic a little bit.

    Balls was boorish, constantly whispering whilst the other candidates were talking… and he had the same 10-15 people clapping every single answer, like little nodding dogs.

    Martin Hemingway is a really nice bloke having spoken with him previously, but trying to claim red tape is a good thing kinda ruined his credibility for me.

    David Dews seemed nervous, and missed an opportunity to have a pop at Balls when Ed made the comment about us not allowing in skilled workers for our NHS, or reforming Europe – which is complete fantasy.

    The chair did a bit too much talking for my liking.

    I actually think Andrea would make the best constituency MP of the two of them, she has far more in common with Morley people than Balls does.

  4. “” Chris James – has anybody found a Lib Dem voter today? “”

    Assuming that Liberal Democrat voters are the same, roughly, through out the country, there is around 10%. They just need a good candidate to vote for.
    With the opponents of PR saying that a local candidate with links to the area is important; Balls mostly lives in London, and occasionally Castleford, Jenkins not from these parts, and Taylor lives in London.
    I guess they all end up in London with a second home.

  5. I don’t think that either Alex Salmond or Ed Balls will be delivering the next budget for two reasons….

    1. Labour won’t win enough seats
    2. Ed Balls won’t be an MP 🙂

  6. If the Lib Dem vote decreases, will their votes switch to the Cons candidate? Maybe the tory candidate will attract the womens vote?

  7. I completely echo what you said about the chair who I think gave Ed too much of the debate. I also agree Martin seemed really good particularly on the shrinking of HMRC though the red tape argument was poor. David was nervous as shown by the brevity of his answers. I must have been one of the “nodding dogs” (!) which were certainly more than 10-15 (I’d say 30 +). Did you sit near the front because the Tories sat there while Labour sat further back.

    It is interesting how people’s view change what they see. Ed seemed to be winding Andrea up and asking do you agree to policies which Andrea could not reply to and it was sometimes difficult to hear her discussing with Ed because she was not facing the mic. Ed came out with the usual nationally rehearsed policies (which I guess you don’t like) whereas Andrea did not seem sure of some things – it’s under review came up 2 or 3 times.

    I have spoken to Andrea and she seems really nice but would not have the power in the H of C. I think Ed has shown in the last 5 years that he is a good constituency MP and that his time here would mean he has more in common with Morley people.

    As I said before the result won’t hinge on this debate.

    PS I think it will be close to LDs losing their deposit but I think I would say they won’t

  8. There were a lot of Labour supporters, but I’d say 10-15 of them just seemed oblivious to what was going on and just applauded everything Ed said.

    I was on the right, just over half way back, I’d say.

    Balls spent at least a minute eyeballing in my direction right at the start, was kinda strange.

    In some respects he wasn’t as bad as I was expecting him to be, but in others he was worse, interrupting in particular.

    The other panellists ought to have objected to that to the chair.

    I had a hustings at St. George’s on Sunday, the TUSC candidate interrupted Benn on one occasion and then me, when I said that I was the local candidate.

    The way the debates have gone otherwise has been really good – the Tory and LD candidates haven’t attended though.

  9. Neil Bywood – I am just about to go to the Labour Club so I have not yet.

    Dinbych Dai – That is a good point and any ex Lib Dem who wants to vote for a woman may most likely switch. However I would expect that to be small and people will take other factors into account.

    Neil Turner – Your No1 is covered by various people on the main site and the second is covered on this site in various places which suggest it is unlikely.

    Luke – I was halfway back on the left hand side and we certainly clapped other candidates, particularly Martin and even once Andrea when they made good points. I agree the other candidates should have objected – you don’t want somebody dominating the conversation. At one time Andrea said nothing for about 10 minutes.

    I think it is awful when candidates do not turn up for a debate. There was another one for the new “Made in Leeds” channel which Ed wanted to go to but he was told it would be filmed on this night a few days before and he was elsewhere in the country on party matters. He asked if it could be changed but it could not. Somebody who saw this debate said it was a very small crowd and that David Dews might well have “won” it with some help from David Daniel in the audience. They would have put Andrea at last.

    Finally, am I right in saying there was hardly any press for the hustings? Does this show a lack of interest?

  10. Neil Bywood – no LDs found by me yesterday.

  11. I come across UKIPs every day, but I dont think it will translate to many getting elected.

  12. Based on what? General Elections are not applied local elections (of course), but Tory results in this part of Yorkshire have been *abysmal* and while I’m not a huge fan of constituency polling it does seem to indicate a good swing to Labour in Yorkshire.

  13. I’m thinking that seat could be re-named ‘Morley and Ousted’ after next Thursday – !

  14. Based on…? ??? ??? ???

  15. Sibboleth,

    Neil Turner is one of the sites Conservative “rampers”. Best to let them continue dreaming of a Thatcherite utopia for 7 more days and then see what their response is on the 8th.

  16. …..and of course ‘Stephenpt’ is hardly a Labour ‘ramper’ – ! 🙂

  17. Or we could have rational discussion. As an alternative. Wouldn’t that be nice.

  18. @ Sibboleth….I made some rational comments on the Delyn site and your response was hardly a major contribution to rational discussion.

  19. Neil Turner,

    I’m not actually, as you will see if you look at a selection of my posts. I call it as I see it and have never been a member of any party (although that does not stop me having strong opinions on certain issues).

    And as far as this seat is concerned, the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at it in 2010, hoping to “decapitate” Ed Balls. They had the advantage that significant parts of the seat had not previously been represented by him – so no personal vote: his fairly toxic reputation in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis: and as it turned out a strong swing to the Conservatives among C2 voters who are fairly numerous here.

    And they did not win.

    Now Balls has had 5 years to embed himself in those parts of the seat he did not previously represent: UKIP are draining potential Conservative voters and appear to be reasonably active in this seat: and theres about a 3-4% swing in England from the Conservatives to Labour.

    So all the trends suggest Ed Balls re-election.

  20. Hows that for a rational discussion!

  21. Decent.

  22. Neil Turner

    I have no doubt you would love to see Ed lose but there are so many factors that suggest it is unlikely.

    a) All the election forecasters give him a 10% lead over Andrea Jenkyns.
    b) Ladbrokes are confident enough to price him at 1/33.
    c) He has had 5 years here to embed himself
    d) Last time it was an unpopular Labour government. This time it is a largely unpopular Conservative government.
    e) I could say canvassing but I am sure the Tories would say the same

  23. Economically, Balls is much more sane than Ed Miliband and restrains him from some (but not all) of his stupidest ideas. If we’re going to get a Miliband premiership I’d prefer Balls to be chancellor than some 30 year old SPAD type who won’t be able to stand up to Miliband….there are plenty of those in the shadow cabinet.

  24. You are all taking nonsense…Balls is a polarizing character (many similar Tories have paid the price for this) in not such a safe seat and he has some baggage from the last Labour Government. You are all ignoring the UKIP factor in this seat (former Labour voters do also vote UKIP) and also tonight we saw what Ed Milliband can do when put under pressure…not much – !

    In terms of Ladbrokes, if I had a tenner for every time an odds on winning horse lost, I’d be a millionaire.

    You are all polling slaves and can’t predict anything :-),….if the polls move then you’ll all change your minds – spineless – !!

  25. IF Mr Balls loses this seat, then who would be the Labour Shadow chancellor?

  26. Will Balls be squeezed?

  27. l’m suffering from deja vu. All the predictions which were wrong in 2010 being repeated as if the Tories were still 7.5% ahead. Balls will be re-elected without any difficulty.

  28. keep on suffering Barnaby…5 years is a long time

  29. at least l am not suffering from delusions.

  30. Hi Barnaby…you need to take on board the following;

    – Labour never actually polls what the final opinion polls say that they will.

    – Until tonight, nobody has ever really challenged Milliband – who are his definition of working people – ? if one earns £50K per year with a company car and Pension – are these ‘working people’, even though they have also seen financial losses, even though they work 60 hours per week – tonight he was challenged and failed

    The polls will move and I predict that you will have to eat humble pie. As I have said, you are a slave to current polls.

  31. Neil Turner

    Do you live anywhere near Morley?

    I doubt you know anything about horse racing but 1/33 is not “just” odds on. You have to put £33 on to get £1 back. In a whole years flat racing you would be lucky ever to get any horse beaten at those odds.

    I would rather back the bookies with money to lose rather than your opinion. By the way why do you think Balls won in 2010?

  32. Hi Chris James…..unlike most people, I am a travelling Salesman who travels all over the UK…in terms of Horse racing, although we disagree on politics I would propose that you put a £10 each way bet on ‘Intilaaq’ winning the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday…he won a couple of weeks ago by 8 lengths at Newbury,against top opposition, and he is a great 3 year old Colt – the 2000 Guineas is only for 3 year old male horses, which haven’t been gelded.

    Intilaaq is 10/1…if you would rather back Ladbrokes in an election race like this 7 days before an election then more fool you.

  33. This is an Election, NOT a horse race.

    The bookies are in it to make money. The Odds reflect Profit or Loss and reflect bets already placed.

    The odds do not equate to votes.

  34. Labour never actually polls what the final opinion polls say that they will. – simply not true. Several polls were either spot on, or close to spot on, at the last general election, and they were mostly very accurate in 2005 too. They haven’t been seriously out since 1997 – in 2001 they slightly overestimated Labour’s national lead, but seeing that the Tories did quite incredibly badly in the marginals in that election with only a few exceptions, the polls still got the result pretty much right in terms of seats even then.

  35. Dinbych Dai – your are right it is not a horse race, it is about chances and that is why we are relating it that way. If you want another way roughly of 1/33 it is about rolling a roulette wheel and you picking the actual spot it will come down in.

    Neil Turner- interesting being a salesmen (what of?). Does it give you any idea of polling as you move around the country? I think you forgot to say why Ed Balls won in 2010 and why you think he is likely to lose now. By the way, Nate Silver has him over 40% and Andrea Jenkyns below 30%.

    For a certain bet I would put my money at 1/6 on the Tories holding Tamworth. It is too far down the list for Labour to give it any attention and looking at the BBC it is the town that is expanding so much. These are poor odds and I might just go for an accumulator on Thursday’s results to see if I can get up to 20 correct.

    (Interesting tip – 10/1 seems fair for 8 lengths although it was only a maiden and their form does not seem to be high class (including last year’s third).

  36. Neil Turner,

    I provided a rational discussion of the seat and you reacted by throwing all your toys out the pram.

    If you want to be taken seriously, you really must try better than claiming that you don’t like Ed Balls and everyone who disagrees with you is spineless.

  37. Keep dreaming StephenPT, but stick a few quid each way on Intilaaq for tomorrow’s 200 Guineas…at least you will have a few quid to drown your sorrows next Friday night – !!

  38. But Neil : I’m not in the dreaming business.

    That’s why I try to post based on evidence and fact : unlike yourself.

  39. Neil Turner,

    Now you are trying to get money out of us as well as making us suffer next Friday!!! It is a good job I don’t back on such open races.

    I hope you did not put too much money on Intilaaq. It’s odds were roughly those of Andrea Jenkyns – try to get your money back by betting on her if you are so confident.

  40. By definition, we cannot predict where there will be a “Portillo moment” but come Friday morning I would suspect that this seat might be one of the likelier candidates.

  41. Wishful thinking Frederic. Perhaps stick to your analysis of the Kent seats. If you are going to make predictions like that, at least give some reasoning.

  42. I am in haste at the moment, Tristram, but I think this seat is being affected by demographic change.

  43. Very wild prediction. And that’s being kind. When the polls are deadlocked, you’re not going to get a huge deviation from the national norm of that size, particularly when Ed Balls will enjoy a first-time incumbency factor in the Morley part of the seat where Labour are strongest.

  44. Hi Barnaby,

    The best part for Ed is the Ardsley and Outwood area. Morley North/South tend to be only slightly Labour and Wrenthorpe tends to be Tory. On the face of it Ed should win by about 3,000 – 5,000. We will find out at 04.00 Friday if this is the case.

    Looking around the constituency it just seems to be Ed and Andrea’s posters around. Nothing from the other four candidates.

    Frederic – there is some small demographic changes but by 2020 there will be some significant ones.

    Now that canvassing is over can I say good luck to all candidates. Whatever you think Ed and Andrea have done their best and I can certainly vouch for Ed’s team. (I’m sure Andrea would say the same about hers).

    Let the battle commence!!!

  45. Is canvassing is over, when did it start? I must have missed them, perhaps I was out. There are some posters on telegraph posts, but not very many. Loads of leaflets(5 thick ones) from Andrea Jenkins, she must have some real money backers; only one from Ed Balls, and one from UKIP, 2 local ones from Labour.
    Has every had the same number of leaflets?
    Has there been a good campaign, who for?

  46. Now it’s getting out vote time. There has been so many leaflets from Andrea presumably to the whole constituency – I’ve had them. Our local Councillor for Leeds has had them as well. Her tactic with money seems to be just blitz them with at least 10 leaflets. Our campaign started 5 years ago to hopefully get Ed “embedded” and has been more targeted locally so people who are openly Tory do not get sent anything other than the freepost one for every candidate. Over the past 5 years I guess there would be more leaflets from us (spread around) as Ed does his policy workshop about 1/2 a month for everybody in various parts of the constituency.

    We have tended to have 3-5 groups out campaigning and several people phoning as regards getting to the voters. We have more numbers but as it isn’t particularly regarded as a marginal – why? Why don’t get many people come in for a large part of campaigning.

    I can’t really say much about the Conservative campaign – we live on a good Tory based estate where you would expect there to be some door to door campaigning but we have seen nothing or had any leaflets dropped through to say “we missed you”. I know we campaigned a part of this estate about two weeks ago.

  47. The BBC is reporting that Ed Balls is close to losing his seat!!!!!!

    Would be up there with Portillo in 1997 is he lost this seat!!!!!!!

  48. I can’t believe this

    a shocking night for LD and Labour

  49. Rumours that Balls is out!

    You’re right Christian, potential Portillo moment

  50. If Balls is turfed out it would be the biggest defeat of the election and symbolic of how Labour has failed to win over the voters with its economic policies.

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