Morley & Outwood

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18776 (38.9%)
Labour: 18354 (38%)
Lib Dem: 1426 (3%)
Green: 1264 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7951 (16.5%)
Others: 479 (1%)
MAJORITY: 422 (0.9%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of the Wakefield council area and part of the Leeds council area.

Main population centres: Morley, Outwood, East Ardsley, Wrenthorpe.

Profile: A pair of small towns between Leeds and Wakefield, both former industrial towns turned into residential dormitories. Morley was once a textile and coal mining town, now a hub for new housing development. Outwood was a former pit village, but has seen a massive expansion of new build housing over the last few decades. The area is also, perhaps somewhat incongrously in this post-industrial landscape, a centre for growing forced rhubarb. The area between Morley, Rothwell and Wakefield has for centuries been the centre for rhubarb growing and in 2010 won Protected Designation of Origin status.

Politics: Morley and Outwood was previously the seat of Ed Balls, Gordon Brown's ally and the Labour shadow Chancellor under Ed Miliband. After boundary changes in 2010 the Tories ran an energetic campaign hoping to defeat Ed Balls and provide a "Portillo moment" of the election, but fell tantalising short. In 2015 the situation was the opposite, no one expected a Tory victory here given the polls were pointing to Labour gains, but Balls was the most high profile casualty of the surprise Conservative victory.

Current MP
ANDREA JENKYNS (Conservative) Born Beverley. Former business development manager, music teacher and singer. Lincolnshire councillor 2009, 2009-2013. First elected as MP for Morley & Outwood in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 17264 (35%)
Lab: 18365 (38%)
LDem: 8186 (17%)
BNP: 3535 (7%)
Oth: 1506 (3%)
MAJ: 1101 (2%)
Con: 8227 (19%)
Lab: 20570 (48%)
LDem: 6819 (16%)
BNP: 2271 (5%)
Oth: 4608 (11%)
MAJ: 12343 (29%)
Con: 9829 (26%)
Lab: 21919 (57%)
LDem: 5446 (14%)
UKIP: 1248 (3%)
MAJ: 12090 (31%)
Con: 12086 (26%)
Lab: 26836 (58%)
LDem: 5087 (11%)
Oth: 529 (1%)
MAJ: 14750 (32%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Morley & Rothwell

2015 Candidates
ANDREA JENKYNS (Conservative) Born Beverley. Business development manager, music teacher and singer. Lincolnshire councillor 2009, 2009-2013.
ED BALLS (Labour) Born 1967, Norwich. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Financial journalist and advisor to Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor and Chancellor. MP for Normanton 2005 to 2015. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2006-2007, Secretary of State for Children and Schools 2007-2010. Shadow home secretary 2010-2011, Shadow Chancellor 2011-2015. A close ally of Gordon Brown throughout the last Labour government. Balls was elected as MP for Normanton in 2005, but saw his seat abolished in the boundary review, despite legal attempts to have the boundary commission recommendations overturned. In March 2007 he was selected to fight the Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Colin Challen. Unsuccessfully ran for the Labour leadership in 2010. Balls is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford.
REBECCA TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975, Todmorden. Educated at Leeds University. Contested Rotherham 2010. MEP for Yorkshire 2012-2014.
DAVID DEWS (UKIP) Wakefield councillor since 2014.
MARTIN HEMINGWAY (Green) Teacher and former archeologist. Leeds councillor 1990-2002 for the Labour party. Contested Leeds North West 2005, 2010, Yorkshire and Humber region 2009, 2014 European elections.
ARNIE CRAVEN (Yorkshire First) Born Leeds. Educated at Leeds University.
Comments - 705 Responses on “Morley & Outwood”
  1. “My answer of ‘leave the European Union and implement sensible controls that neither favour nor discriminate against EU citizens, and let us be able to refuse entry to undesirables’ wasn’t included unfortunately.”

    I thought UKIP policy was to join EFTA or EEA….therefore none of your “sensible controls” could happen under UKIP policy.

  2. Luke,

    Is it not best for you to get all your candidates to concentrate on the best local seat in the area? You might get 3 x the Lib Dem vote but because they have nurtured their areas they may end up with eight times the number of seats?

    I presume you are in favour of PR and I feel that now we have 5 (or 7 if you add in Scotland and Wales) we may well be moving towards it. I am not an expert on European polling systems but from what I heard about the system in Greece – PR but extra 50 seats for the winners – seems to give everybody a say and if there is a party not far off a majority it will lead to stable government as FPTP has proved in this country (until now).

  3. “I thought UKIP policy was to join EFTA or EEA”

    I think that’s the official party policy, although it’s doubtful whether your average UKIP voter actually supports this.

    It is one of UKIP’s most laughably policies though. I’ve never understand why they think we should give up our seats in the European Parliament, but still be bound by European legislation.

  4. “I think that’s the official party policy, although it’s doubtful whether your average UKIP voter actually supports this.”

    Exactly. I wonder what would happen if UKIP got into government and their supporters realised their policy was not to “leave Europe” at all….just to slightly weaken the relationship, leaving free movement of goods & people in place. It would make the Lib Dem treachery over tuition fees look like a picnic.

  5. Chris – that’s a difficult question, and I suppose if people want to give a seat their best shot, and have people that will help them campaign, who is anyone to tell them that they have to go and work other seats instead?

    I’m up for helping other candidates, indeed I have, but I’ve received help in return – answering emails or meeting a voter or two for a coffee and a chat.

    Pooling resources is definitely the way to go – with your council candidates, and your combined group of helpers.

    I’ve seen other candidates in other branches go their separate ways, council candidate doing one thing, PPC something entirely different – which when you speak with people could be embarrassing.

    ”Well, he said you were doing this….” and all that.

  6. Today we got a nice, neat colourful 8 page booklet From Andrea Jenkyns. Did you get one Luke? I can see what you mean about her expenses.

    Do people really pay attention to them or do they think (like me) that it is terrible what political parties spend their money on. I believe research shows (correct me if I am wrong) that only one in ten gives it more than a cursory look.

  7. No Chris, but I’m sure it’ll be here shortly.

    I spoke to a local printer in terms of costings for the newspapers that have been coming around… 50k of those, a few times, plus delivery…. and then letters and leaflets.

    Fair play to her for giving it a bash, but the local elections of 2014 were bad – I would have been concerned, beaten handily across the board. The local association isn’t that strong, the chairman for Leeds Central is helping her…. he’s also deputy chair or secretary of Leeds West Tories.

    I think that if Ed was going to get turned over it would have been in 2010, as a parachuted in cabinet minister, against a local candidate…. Morley people are quite insular and would back someone local. He just fell short.

    I’d expect Ed to come in comfortably with 5000 or so, with the other two contenders reasonably close together.

  8. If Labour move up to 40%ish with Tories and UKIP not far apart in the low 20s, the majority could be more like 8-10000. Given the strength of UKIP, the Tories don’t have a hope in this kind of seat in 2015.

  9. Luke, H Hemmelig – if only you were right! I think as a local party we should still regard this as a marginal.

    I have just looked through the leaflet and find it quite astonishing that a candidate would put so much time consuming effort into a seat that may well not be a marginal. I don’t know if they just targeted certain areas, but I would not have included this estate as it has mainly Conservative voters here. If they think they can win they must look elsewhere for votes.

    As we are now in the long campaign does this have to be counted in the money available to spend.

  10. Don’t think the Tories will win here at all, and therefore this can’t really be called a marginal contest.

  11. Maybe she has a sponsor, I don’t know, or is receiving funds from head office.

    What I’d have done before ploughing a load of money in is at least analyse the local election results.

    Granted, in Morley there’s the issue of the MBI’s, but they only take Morley North & South seriously – in Ardsley & Robin Hood, and the Wakefield wards, the Tories were nowhere to be seen either.

    I know council elections and parliamentary ones are different, but you can at least analyse trends.

    That’s not to say you should just give up and accept Morley & Outwood as being a safe seat, but with there being a swing in the anti-Labour vote towards UKIP, them also taking votes from Labour in decent numbers here, and engaging new voters…. and lots of the Lib Dem vote turning red, it’s hard to rationally predict a Conservative win here.

    Or any gains across Leeds generally. They’ve certainly no chance in either Leeds Central, West or East. None.

    I do think they can hang on in Pudsey, and in Elmet & Rothwell they’ll increase their majority. Lots of people are predicting Labour gains but I’m not convinced.

  12. I would be most surprised to see the Tories enjoy a positive swing in Elmet & Rothwell. As we know, that constituency is very polarised, with the Wetherby & Harewood wards being very strongly Tory, and much of the remainder being very strongly Labour. If Labour’s ground game is better, they should at least make a close contest of it rather than fall further behind. I’m not currently predicting a Labour gain, but unless the polls get substantially worse it is hard to see the logic of an increased Tory majority in that particular seat in that particular region.

  13. Labour, as you would accept, are throwing everything at Pudsey and trying to beat the Tories on the ground. However, Stuart Andrew is a popular MP according to a New Statesman graph where he was the most popular of 8 Tory MPs. I am firmly into recount territory with this one.

    I totally see why you see Morley is not a marginal now but there are over 10 weeks to the election and if the election gets closer and the Tories would spend so much money to try and kick Ed out. He managed to hold on last time and I do expect him to do so again, but don’t count your chickens before they hatch…….

  14. Oh, I agree in the sense that there’s no room for complacency, though I think there is comfort to be taken from the UKIP factor, and the collapse of the Lib Dem share.

    As for Pudsey, it’s a really odd make up. All the wards are similar in some ways, and different in some too. Pudsey ward was nearly taken by ukip with a paper candidate last year, only a couple of hundred leaflets found themselves down there on the ward boundaries, though the bloke that stood is fairly well known in the area. The remaining wards I think the Tories are best positioned to be ahead in overall. Labour have a job on there. Not insurmountable by any means though.

  15. I Think Pudsey will be on a knife edge and could very easily go either way. As for Elmet and Rothwell I am very confident of a Tory hold probably with a margin of 2-6 over Labour. The national polls will stay approximately the same until may (barring some kind of economic crash or major scandal) as there has been very little direct swing between Labour and the Tories since 2010 so very few voters for the Tories to ‘swingback’ but similarly there is virtually no chance Labour will get any more votes of 2010 Tory voters as they have had years to try to appeal to such people and failed miserably (not helped by their exceptionally weak leader). The Tories may just out poll Labour nationally but that would be because some UKIP voters return to the Tory fold and some Labour votes return to the Lib Dems, not because of any direct shift between Tory and Labour. Of course Balls will hold comfortably here.

  16. David Cameron and Ed Balls were doing PPE (Politics, Philosopy and Economics) in Oxford at the same time. Cameron got a first but Ed got a better grade than him with his first. Is that why Cameron does not like Balls?

  17. No, it;s because Balls is a very unpleasant person.

  18. Runnymede (or David C) that is your opinion. I guess you don’t know him, but I think I would be correct in saying that the local party would strongly disagree with you. I hope that in May the electorate will also favour Ed as the people above suspect.

  19. I find Balls quite boorish as I’ve said, and I don’t think he’s necessarily the right person for this seat – even if I was Labour I woundn’t either.

    Mainly because I’m a big believer in localism – it ought to add a lot to your credibility as a candidate, but I’m not convinced it does, with tribal voting.

    That’s also true in local elections in Leeds – both the Tories and Labour parachute candidates in.

  20. “No, it;s because Balls is a very unpleasant person.”

    Most people in politics are unpleasant.

    Personally I prefer Balls to Miliband.

  21. At least Ed lives in a seat bordering this one for the last 18 years – where his wife is the MP. I believe Andrea Jenkyns still lives in “Lincolnshire?’

    I also believe voting should be done on a local scale and I hope Luke can help David Dews get this message across and take some votes off Ms Jenkyns!

  22. Luke,

    I presume you have got the booklet from the Conservatives and Labour’s 4 page newspaper. I just wondered what you thought of the contents (even though neither will satisfy your wishes). I am sure there are very few people who look at them thoroughly but it might change some votes.

    Apparently it costs £1,100 to print 40,000 newspapers and about 60 of us delivered some of them on Saturday and then we were rewarded by Ed’s legendary cooking!

    The advantage we have in this seat is the ground work – the Conservatives, I believe, have only a small amount of active members and had to post out all their booklets.

  23. Labour: 21000
    Conservative: 18000
    UKIP: 6000
    Lib Dem: 3000

    Lab Maj: 3000

  24. Chris – that’s cheaper than I was expecting, actually, for 40k newspapers.

    But given that I’ve had several of them, some of them more than once, they are clearly being delivered by hired hands.

    I could tell you to the exact household which house has been hit and which hasn’t so far.

    I’ve had mixed responses from people when I’ve asked them about receiving material – some quite welcome it, others would look at a paper and think ‘oh yeah, must be an election coming up’.

    Labour are way ahead of the rest when it comes to campaigning here, getting activists out who know about policy, and go as a pack makes such a difference, the public notice you and you are alright to answer a question, contrary to the hired hand who doesn’t know/care.

    60 is an excellent turn-out, we’ve had 12’s and 13’s recently, which when you are leafleting dense wards like Beeston means you can do an awful lot in just a couple of hours – that’s in addition to a few of us having pals who’ll leaflet their own estate for us.

    I’ve been working in the north east for the past few days so spent the weekend there, when I’m home later this evening I’ll have a nosey at what’s been delivered and let you know.

    Dalek – if UKIP only get 6000 I’d be amazed, the Tories won’t go over their tally from last time having slipped back across the board in the locals ever since 2010.

    I’d forsee Balls getting around 18-20k, with the Tories and UKIP quite close, just over 10k each.

    If the MBIs stood, they’d keep their deposit comfortably I think.

  25. Not sure what the ‘localism’ criticism is here: married since 1998 to the person who’s been MP for the neighbouring seat since 1997, has had a family house thereabouts since then, MP for this seat and it’s partial predecessor since 2005…. if we want to say that anyone not born and bred in their constituency is an outsider, David Cameron wasn’t born or raised in Witney, Cleggy is from Bucks not Sheffield…. etc etc. I do like local MPs, but as you might say, some are born local; some achieve local status; and others have being local thrust upon them. And sometimes, local candidates are a right waste of space.

    Not that I am a huge fan of Ed. But fair’s fair.

  26. Lithotomist,

    Localism for me is ideally somebody who has spent a large amount of time in that constituency. I started my working life in Morley in 1991 and although I was not born here I think 24 years in that constituency shows some degree of localism.

    Living “next door” for 18 years shows a general knowledge of the area but not a specific knowledge, although the last 5 years should have taught him that.

    I was merely defending Ed against Andrea Jenkyns who has come to Morley from Lincolnshire and to me is the complete outsider.

  27. If you sum up all the posts for every constituency you get predictions across the board of 5 to 10% swings from Con to Lab when some polls put the Tories ahead. Also….There is not going to be a single Con Gain from Lab anywhere in the UK.

    Since 1966 the only election where the Conservatives have not taken at least 1 Labour seat is 1997.

    If their are going to be large swings in some constituencies to Labour not reflected in a national swing to Labour then logic suggests that there has to be counter swings in at least a few constituencies.

  28. Dalek is of course right – there are usually a few “rogues”. Don’t think that this will be one of them though. The Conservatives put a lot of effort into this effectively new seat last time and with a less favourable climate and with votes draining to UKIP, I cant see them removing Ed Balls.

    Possible outliers next time might be Southampton Itchen, maybe Telford, and of course our London based pundits are always happy to argue the toss over Hampstead and Kilburn.

  29. Dalek: historical precedent is there to be broken. Of course there will be seats which swing from Lab to Con but most of these will be already Tory seats which in 2010 had a large centre right Lib Dem vote, think seats like Hexham, Penrith etc. as well as most of the Scottish constituencies due to Labour losing a chunk of votes to the SNP and the Tories flat lining. Neither of these cases help the Tories take Labour seats. The only Labour seat which is realistically endangered (barring some massive shift in the opinion polls) is Southampton Itchen where there is an awful lot of factors working against Labour, but even there the Tories aren’t favoured. As for seats like Hampstead and Kilburn, it may be winnable for the Tories in future but not this year, the Lib Dem vote will collapse primarily to Labour. The only way the Tories could win Hampstead and Kilburn in May would be for the Lib Dem vote to significantly rebound and for the Green Party to rise even higher thus splitting the anti-Tory vote, this is very unlikely to happen. As for the more working class Labour seats (Great Grimsby, Rother Valley, Wakefield, Plymouth Moor View etc.) which the Tories got close in in 2010 they will find that UKIP will supplant them as the main opposition to Labour.

  30. The only one for me would be Southampton Itchen. However, with all the money the Tories will throw at this seat it is an outside chance.

  31. “Since 1966 the only election where the Conservatives have not taken at least 1 Labour seat is 1997.”

    Which Labour seats did the Conservatives gain in October 1974 ?

  32. The answer is none. The Conservatives did gain seats from the Liberals in Oct 1974 – Bodmin & Hazel Grove come to mind, but it may be that I’ve forgotten one somewhere else as well – but none from Labour, or indeed any other party. Labour’s failure to gain a working majority stemmed from their failure to gain some low-hanging fruit from the Tories (such as Brentford & Isleworth, and Plymouth Drake), not because they lost seats to the Tories. In fact I’m not sure they lost any seats at all except Carmarthen to Plaid Cymru.

  33. Perhaps I was right on the 20th February?

    George Eaton, The New Statesman tweets: Cameron’s obsession with Balls continues. Some say he resents that he got a better First than him at Oxford. #PMQs

  34. Following on from Bradford East –


    If they are just throwing “everything” at Ed Balls I think it might be a mistake. Last time they did well to get the majority down to 1,100 and Antony Calvert, their candidate, thought they could not win the seat in 2015 and he did not apply. Later on he decided to take Wakefield.

    Ed Balls will be well ahead until the actual campaign starts and then with the right wing press wanting to give him a bad ride it could lead to his majority slipping. I would hope he will just have enough to hang on. Certainly at this time the campaign teams think he is fairly popular (certainly more so than Nick Clegg!!!!!) and we hope he will hold on.

    So far, I am not convinced that Andrea Jenkyns is a good candidate, certainly not as good as Antony Calvert and I wonder how well she will go in a public debate like last time outside the Town Hall.

    I also think the Tories will lose out for three other reasons –

    1. UKIP taking slightly more votes from Tory than Labour
    2. Labour will get more LD votes than Tories
    3. Last time it was an unpopular Labour government, this time it is an unpopular Tory government.

    At the start of the last campaign I thought we had a lead of 7,000 and then on polling day itself I said it will be about 2,000 which most volunteers were thinking that it was a bit low. Unfortunately, I was too optimistic.

    PS Did you get Andrea’s 8 page booklet or Ed’s 4 page newspaper?

  35. Chris – no literature at all.

    The last stuff I had was the two lots of the same paper from Andrea.

    I’ve not met her so can’t really comment – I was walking through Queen Street last week and was half tempted to pop my head through the door and say hello.

    I was living in Beeston when the last elections were on, so experience of Calvert is limited, other than him taking to Facebook to pile into someone on a group about 12 months or so ago.

  36. Claiming that Ed Balls is more popular than the conservative party isvan interesting intrepretation of polling chris.

  37. Joe, I cannot see where I have said that. If you mean “campaign teams” it is the Morley door knockers and perhaps it was not the best language that could be used.

    There has been no Ed B v Tories poll and I think we know who would win it ……….. and that is where I go on about right-wing media etc.

    Incidentally, on a serious point, best wishes to Nick Robinson but it is important he looks after himself rather than thinking about the General Election.

  38. Saw my first Tory campaign poster in Morley today. Still over 2 months to the election.

  39. By the way Chris – I received the brochure from Andrea.

    Lots of content, but I just don’t think that there’s a strong enough local party here to give her the push that she really needs.

    Morley & Outwood could potentially turn blue, but UKIP’s presence really doesn’t help matters.

    It’s the vote purple, get red seat that the Tories often bang on about…. the number of which I feel is overestimated.

    If anything, it’s vote blue, get red! Look at the Heywood & Middleton by-election – the Tories were way off in third but took enough (presumably off us) to get McInnes over the line.

  40. I don’t think anybody expected how close Heywood & Middleton would be. I feel confident that Labour will hold it at the General Election as the turnout will increase. A bookie even makes them 1/50 to win. Nevertheless, I can see why UKIP would put money into the seat and Iain Dale actually says he sees UKIP winning it.

    In Morley & Outwood Election Forecast go Lab 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 15%. To me at this time it would still be a Lab seat even with tactical voting. I don’t think, unless there is a massive fund induced successful Tory campaign, that Morley will turn blue in 2015. There is so much new building in the seat that 2020 will have to be assessed then.

  41. In terms of Heywood & Middleton, I was in between, I was expecting Labour to nick it by 1500 or so, which wasn’t predicted anywhere.

    We had a strong candidate and Labour didn’t, lets be honest.

    For M & O, it’s one on the potential list for 2020, certainly not this time. Perhaps they are warming Andrea up for somewhere else?

  42. After the Tories could not get anybody for the seat the first time it was “advertised” I think credit must be given to Andrea Jenkyns to stand up to one of Labour’s big guns.

    I do not think she is a very good candidate, but after the election this time (presuming she does not win!) she will have learnt enough to make her a better candidate for another seat, particularly if it is around Lincolnshire, where she comes from.

    I am sure the boundaries will change before 2020 (unless there is an election before) and obviously, we are not sure whether M & O will survive – it seems to change every single time there is a review (see below the past results above). On the projected 600 seat review it was meant to be part of “Batley and Morley” which would be a nice safe seat for Ed.

  43. Lib Dem candidate is Rebecca Taylor. She used to be a MEP. (sorry if it has been mentioned before).

  44. One that really ought to change is Elmet & Rothwell – some of those wouldn’t vote Tory in a million years, but under these boundaries they’re always liable to have a blue MP.

    I didn’t know that nobody applied for it the first time it was put out to be honest.

  45. There are several inaccuracies in the comments about Andrea Jenkyns. I work with her and the facts are that she is not an outsider; Ed used to be her MP when she lived in Normanton, she has been a retail store manager in Wakefield, Leeds and the White Rose Centre. She moved away for five years to Lincs as she got offered a job as a music teacher.
    A month after being selected May 2013 she moved back up and currently lives with her mother near Wakefield. She sold her house, gave up her job so she could do self fund to do this full time. It was losing her father at Pinderfields that resulted in her deciding to stand. She has been working none stop and is fully committed.

  46. @Chris R

    Welcome to this site and it is great to know her background – apologies for any mistakes I might have made. It was awful what happened with her father (RIP) and she can only be commended for her actions.

    I am on the “other side” but I think you will know that people from Morley consider themselves very independent and that they will make up their own minds on the election.

    I obviously don’t know how much money the Tories give towards the 40/40 seats but I am shocked about her self funding herself. I think we have had about 4 leaflets/newspapers – I hope they were paid for by the party!

    Anyway, the best of luck and I know she has been working non-stop but hopefully come May the electorate will favour Ed!

  47. Luke & Chris – I think it also depends how craven (& wealthy) a Tory PPC is. I recall Nick Boles saying he spent £50k of his own money in Hove – and lost. Esther McVey also spent some of her own money in WW in 2005 and also just lost. UKIP should do well in Morley. Wasnt it on a Ford/Goodwin list of good demographics for them?

  48. I don’t know Andrea Jenkyns, but I would hesitate to put my money into a seat which at the present time seems by all (except myself) not to be a marginal. However, it does show her to think she has a good chance and I hope she does not end up spending 50k like Nick Boles.

    I sometimes think about putting £20 on her to win at 6/1. Wanting her to lose or if by chance she does win I would have £120 to console myself!

    Ford/Goodwin did not say Morley was a good place (not in Labour’s top 100), but Ed’s wife has her seat at No12. If you put BNP (I know they are not allowed in UKIP but are seen as being close) + UKIP together they had over 5000 votes in 2010 and I think they could easily get 3000 more – not enough to win the seat but perhaps enough to alter the outcome. I tend to think though it is not going to be far away from 50-50 and if so has little impact.

  49. I’d be interested to see where the MBI voters would vote, in the event of them no longer being around.

    Morley, plus the outlying areas of East and West Ardsley, and also Robin Hood, do seem to me that there’s definitely a potential UKIP vote here.

    The BNP, English Democrats – who are basically a non-party, and then UKIP with a paper candidate, have all come within touching distance of taking Ardsley & Robin Hood ward.

    With UKIP, it’s difficult to know where the supporters are, and how strong, given that they’ve only stood in most wards a maximum of twice, mostly just once. Some paper candidates did exceptionally well, others who worked much harder got nowhere.

    That’s especially true in the Tory wards.

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