Morley & Outwood

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18776 (38.9%)
Labour: 18354 (38%)
Lib Dem: 1426 (3%)
Green: 1264 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7951 (16.5%)
Others: 479 (1%)
MAJORITY: 422 (0.9%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of the Wakefield council area and part of the Leeds council area.

Main population centres: Morley, Outwood, East Ardsley, Wrenthorpe.

Profile: A pair of small towns between Leeds and Wakefield, both former industrial towns turned into residential dormitories. Morley was once a textile and coal mining town, now a hub for new housing development. Outwood was a former pit village, but has seen a massive expansion of new build housing over the last few decades. The area is also, perhaps somewhat incongrously in this post-industrial landscape, a centre for growing forced rhubarb. The area between Morley, Rothwell and Wakefield has for centuries been the centre for rhubarb growing and in 2010 won Protected Designation of Origin status.

Politics: Morley and Outwood was previously the seat of Ed Balls, Gordon Brown's ally and the Labour shadow Chancellor under Ed Miliband. After boundary changes in 2010 the Tories ran an energetic campaign hoping to defeat Ed Balls and provide a "Portillo moment" of the election, but fell tantalising short. In 2015 the situation was the opposite, no one expected a Tory victory here given the polls were pointing to Labour gains, but Balls was the most high profile casualty of the surprise Conservative victory.


Current MP
ANDREA JENKYNS (Conservative) Born Beverley. Former business development manager, music teacher and singer. Lincolnshire councillor 2009, 2009-2013. First elected as MP for Morley & Outwood in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17264 (35%)
Lab: 18365 (38%)
LDem: 8186 (17%)
BNP: 3535 (7%)
Oth: 1506 (3%)
MAJ: 1101 (2%)
2005*
Con: 8227 (19%)
Lab: 20570 (48%)
LDem: 6819 (16%)
BNP: 2271 (5%)
Oth: 4608 (11%)
MAJ: 12343 (29%)
2001
Con: 9829 (26%)
Lab: 21919 (57%)
LDem: 5446 (14%)
UKIP: 1248 (3%)
MAJ: 12090 (31%)
1997
Con: 12086 (26%)
Lab: 26836 (58%)
LDem: 5087 (11%)
Oth: 529 (1%)
MAJ: 14750 (32%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Morley & Rothwell

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREA JENKYNS (Conservative) Born Beverley. Business development manager, music teacher and singer. Lincolnshire councillor 2009, 2009-2013.
ED BALLS (Labour) Born 1967, Norwich. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Financial journalist and advisor to Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor and Chancellor. MP for Normanton 2005 to 2015. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2006-2007, Secretary of State for Children and Schools 2007-2010. Shadow home secretary 2010-2011, Shadow Chancellor 2011-2015. A close ally of Gordon Brown throughout the last Labour government. Balls was elected as MP for Normanton in 2005, but saw his seat abolished in the boundary review, despite legal attempts to have the boundary commission recommendations overturned. In March 2007 he was selected to fight the Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Colin Challen. Unsuccessfully ran for the Labour leadership in 2010. Balls is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford.
REBECCA TAYLOR (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975, Todmorden. Educated at Leeds University. Contested Rotherham 2010. MEP for Yorkshire 2012-2014.
DAVID DEWS (UKIP) Wakefield councillor since 2014.
MARTIN HEMINGWAY (Green) Teacher and former archeologist. Leeds councillor 1990-2002 for the Labour party. Contested Leeds North West 2005, 2010, Yorkshire and Humber region 2009, 2014 European elections.
ARNIE CRAVEN (Yorkshire First) Born Leeds. Educated at Leeds University.
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Comments - 687 Responses on “Morley & Outwood”
  1. Good posts Luke. We find UKIP only marginally more going to you and as you say our candidate playing the local card is effective in this region. I tend to think Andrea will win by a small margin as many people are unhappy because of a lack of response from her team and her being unavailable through being pregnant. MBIs tend to show how independent Morley is and I think their supporters are 70% Tory. You are right the underdog may well work in Neil’s favour. Despite May’s performance I still think you will have a majority of not far off 100 which may seem a bit high but if you look at where the leaders have gone that tends to show where the battleground is.

    I don’t know whether you believe the bookies but a week ago you could get 9/2 on Neil winning. Now according to one bookie it is 7/4.

    Andrewm

    Yes your correct – Morley is heading towards a Tory seat, particularly Morley North. If it was Morley & Outwood in five years time it would be difficult for Labour to win. If the proposed Boundary Review goes ahead Morley would be paired with Batley which should be a safe Labour seat.

  2. I don’t have any experience of how her team deal with case work, genuinely, however if they do sit on things and work to a fairly lax SLA type position, then the constituents are bound to get annoyed and would consider someone else.

    There are bound to be some things that a local councillor is better positioned to be able to deal with, none of those are Tories currently, if people feel like they’re being fobbed off or given the party line… even if they actually aren’t, all about perception as we know.

    The ‘I’m more local than you’ was very clever, one I expected given that it is factually correct, not sure they expected something like that… you use the tools at your disposal.

    I’ve not heard a negative word against Neil when I’ve been speaking to people, there’s a few ‘I don’t know who he is’ – mainly in Outwood, much of the anti Labour stuff has been directed at Abbott (not Corbyn).

    In Ardsley there were a few Con > Lab switchers, a couple of anti Balls ones reverting back to type, and others saying they’ve never seen her. Ardsley is difficult to appear visible in!

    Morley & Outwood will always be a marginal, there seems a floor on the Lab vote and a ceiling on the Tory vote, though with UKIP collapsing and the area not being very Lib Dem both of those theories will be tested.

  3. I know from before that about 50% of queries eg, parking, cutting down trees, noise levels are for Councillors but a lot of people automatically go to their MPs.

    Neil has lived in Morley for 33 years, worked in Wakefield for 20 years and been a Councillor for 10 years and that is why his local credentials are genuine. He is Morley based and so in Wrenthorpe, Outwood and Stanley he has not had much exposure but he has done different leaflets for the two places (did Andrea do this?) and Stanley and Outwood are our best areas in the constituency.

    We have seen some moving back to Neil from Ed Balls but also some going the other way because of leadership.

    I think we both think it will be close and probably Tory but you never know until Friday 9th.

  4. I’m surprised to see that Outwood is Labour’s best area in the constituency; certainly the western ward seemed to be reliably Tory during the latter stages of the last Labour government and I assumed it was continuing to trend that way – as a lot of the Wakefield council area was seeming to at that time.

  5. Paul D

    If you go on http://www.electoralcalculus.com you will see there are five parts to the constituency and in their speculation our only positive is from Stanley and Outwood East. In 2015 we won four of these boxes but Morley North was so much against us that we lost.

    Wrenthorpe is definitely Tory, but Outwood West from 2015 has a greater Labour voice.

  6. Yeah, the Morley North ward is fairly reliably Tory, covering Gildersome, Drig and Churwell.

    In a normal town without Independents you’d expect them to hold it with close to 50% share, Labour 30-35% ish.

    The only really volatile ward is Ardsley & Robin Hood, Labour have always held it but even the English Democrats came within a household or two of winning it, UKIP with a paper candidate nearly took it in 2014. Tories have had a less than enthusiastic candidate for the last three years who hasn’t done anything and then been mega shocked when he lost…

    As a party they under perform badly in Leeds generally, might be the leadership on LCC that lack vision? Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ought to return three Tories… you’d think anyway.

  7. Con hold

  8. Interesting count… Labour took a fairly decent lead early on, before Jenkyns caught up and started to pull away.

    Could this hold be considered an upset?

  9. It is, but little seemed to matter elsewhere…

  10. I’m not sure that this was an exceptional result.

    Its a fairly well established feature in British General Elections that first time defenders of seats often get an above average result. This was one of the 6 seats which the Conservatives gained from Labour and they successfully defended 5 of them (here, Bolton West, Plymouth Moor View, S’ton Itchen and Telford).

    The exception was Derby North.

  11. Yes, it suggests it wasn’t so simple as Balls having a negative personal vote in 2015; Jenkyns perhaps HAS managed to build one up over the last couple of years (or Balls had a net positive personal vote)

  12. Just correcting my post timed 2.43

    Should have read “6 gains in England”.

    Don’t want to be jumped on my our Celtic posters!

  13. Was a lot of it to do with the postal vote Luke? Last time it was Morley N and those that defeated us. Which particular areas led to a good lead for us?

    I was not far off with a 1,500 Tory majority. I think a lot of the change, even in two years would be partly down to new builds. I feel that now Labour must get 300 seats to take this seat and it is heading toward safe Tory. However if the boundary changes do go ahead it should be a fairly safe Batley and Morley seat for Labour.

  14. I didn’t catch the postal votes at all, though it was those that saved Stuart Andrew in Pudsey.

    That result was remarkable, he’s a popular local MP and even in their bad areas has been well received during this campaign.

    Morley S was good for you, better than I expected… those were the early boxes I tallied, it was probably my facial expression that led the BBC to speculate a Labour gain!

    It was my first time tallying Morley N – and yes, it was good, from your point of view it is difficult to know what you can do to turn that around.

    I was knocking up in the Wakefield end late on and did a quick tour of stations, queues outside, mainly young folk…

    Can’t speculate too much but I reckon on the day that the UKIP vote broke disproportionately to Andrea, higher than the 60% I was reckoning, with Neil picking up the green vote and most of the increased turnout.

    Given that she’s been in the area for four years and increased her majority against the tide, albeit in a Brexit friendly seat, you might be right that she’ll take some shifting.

    I suppose we’d only know once we had an election with a prolonged campaign and a Lab candidate in place early. I think us having two weeks of a head start made a difference,

  15. Looking at the 2015 election there were (keeping LD the same) about 10000 votes to spare. We should be really pleased when Neil got 6,000 of them, but somehow you got 8,000 of them – an increase of 4,000 people voting. If we had been told before that Neil got 24,500 votes we would presume he would have won. Neil has been a Councillor for Morley S and that is why it was so good for him. We often sent leaflets/letters to other areas but not so much for Morley S because he could stand on his record. I really don’t think we can turn Morley N around. Neil spent more time on it and it did not work. Perhaps the candidate should spend more time in the other areas. If it is Neil, although he made some effort, to really concentrate on Wakefield and Ardsley/Robin Hood.

    The two weeks at the start was a disadvantage but I don’t think it could move a 2,000 majority.

    By the way, I bet Anthony Calvert must be kicking himself for moving to Wakefield rather than sticking with M & O.

  16. I suppose the national polling around 2013 when Andrea was selected, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that the Tories had peaked in 2010 and it was time to seek pastures new.

    I’m surprised Creagh hung on, and did so with a similar sized majority, especially the size of the leave vote, the UKIP share two years ago and the Tories supposedly having worked the area since the last election.

    Perhaps the adult social care policy put off the older voters there?

    A friend of mine did some campaigning there and gradually it went from being a sure fire gain to him thinking they’d lost on election day…

    I didn’t get the chance to look at Ardsley & Robin Hood, I’d be interested to know how it broke, as it is the most volatile ward in the seat (by miles) and will be probably the biggest Lab/Con battleground next year across Leeds.

  17. I was surprised about Wakefield as well. I know it seems a bit silly but when AC came up with his suggestion on tea it will have annoyed a lot of people and pushed some voters away. Nevertheless, this was a weird election. Before I had given up on Halifax and Wakefield did not consider Keighley and Colne Valley did not even enter my thoughts.

    Certainly I thought Morley & Outwood would be in the middle of these (which I expected us to lose, but not by much). I hoped Paula Sherriff might squeeze through in Dewsbury because of the things she has done – tampons, prices in hospital shops which got good publicity.

    What is worrying is that Morley & Outwood is the only Leeds seat where it went to the tories with an increasing majority.

  18. This may be a classic example of the first time incumbency bonus. Though, generally speaking, that was less in evidence this election than in the past.

    Generally the Cons put a lot of work into West Yorkshire to go backwards. They put less into South Yorkshire, where they did make progress but fail to take seats.

  19. Not sure why you think the MBIs are Tories, Leadley was a Liberal, Finnigan was Labour

    Wrenthorpe and Outwood have a UKIP councillor, so they are anti-EU too.

  20. Wrenthorpe and Outwood do not have seats on Morley Council. I am on Morley Council and I think I know 7 peoples political persuasion and 4 are Tories. Robert Finnigan was Labour but he did appear on Andrea Jenkyns’s poster to support her. Neil Dawson is the other Labour Councillor. From the 2015 election Morley N made the difference and comparing the Tory/Labour votes with the local election it would seem that roughly two thirds voted Tory.

  21. Jack
    “This may be a classic example of the first time incumbency bonus. Though, generally speaking, that was less in evidence this election than in the past”

    I’m not so sure, with the obvious exception of Scotland and the less obvious exception of Wales it should be pointed out Lab significantly increased their majorities in all of their 2015 gains and the Tories definitely performed above average in their 2015 gains holding onto most of them, most with further swings towards them.

  22. True that as far as Lab was concerned there was a good bonus, though I wonder if that is as much about the type of seats they made progress in last time as the MPs. For the Cons it was very patchy – good first time incumbency bonuses might have been expected for Amanda Solloway, Byron Davies and James Davies which didn’t materialise.

  23. Very good result here for Andrea Jenkyns with first-time incumbency.

  24. She might now be very hard to beat.

  25. Certainly Jenkyns appears to be inoffensive enough and at the very least an approachable individual. Can’t hurt her with the voters in a seat like this?

  26. I imagine Elmet is probably lost for Lab but I wouldn’t be so hasty about this seat, yeah it swung to the Tories last week but not massively, they’re only sitting on a majority of 4% in an election they won nationally, that makes it a key Lab target going forward. Though the swing to the Tories here doesn’t bode well for Lab in the future here and means they certainly can’t be complacent, it will probably be a tougher nut to crack than some other seats with larger majorities.

  27. This is a seat that Labour will win when they win a majority. As for the long-term, it depends what route the Tories go down as to whether this becomes a solid seat for them.

    Trends in particular seats are likely to become disrupted as Labour have changed their tone significantly in the last two years (but for now appear settled, at least until the next electoral reverse), whereas the Tories, as a result of their current identity crisis, are likely to shapeshift a bit more over the next parliament (however long that is). It is more difficult to work out which party a seat is moving towards when the parties themselves are moving.

  28. True. But they are not numerous enough to form the bedrock of a Conservative electoral strategy.

    Easy to say this in hindsight, of course!

  29. I think this was one of the few seats the Tories picked up from Labour in 2015 to hold onto, along with Plymouth Moor View, Bolton West, Telford, and Southampton Itchen.

  30. “I think this was one of the few seats the Tories picked up from Labour in 2015 to hold onto.”

    In fairness, they held onto more than half of their 2015 gains.

    Held: Morley & Outwood, Plymouth Moor View, Bolton West, Telford, Southampton Itchen, Corby (sort of – won by the Conservatives in 2010 but taken by Labour in a by-election)
    Lost: Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North

    So depending on whether you count Corby, the Tories held either 5 out of 8, or 6 out of 9, of their 2015 gains.

  31. Results… voters in this area aren’t exactly backward in coming forward, and are independent minded… love locals…

    Neil Dawson was a decent candidate with a track record of 6 years as a Cllr in a town stuffed with independents, and has lived in the area for 30 years…

    She’ll take some moving I reckon now… they’ll have to get a majority to have the national swing to do it, best expectations were of a majority of 2-3k, with a national swing to the Tories, so when the swing is against, a solid result.

    There isn’t really a massive student vote to tap into, and the town is quite patriotic, some of the negative anti-JC stuff that failed elsewhere would go down quite nicely.

    The big Brexit vote and her being a prominent leaver helps of course.

  32. The only way Labour wins M&O again is going to be with a majority and even after that they’ll struggle to hold on.

    More chances they could win Southampton Itchen of the 2015 Tory gains.

    Moor View looks to be getting worse for Labour whereas Sutton & Devonport gets better (uni factor).

  33. Moor View was always historically the second safest of the Plymouth seats for the Tories unless I’m mistaken with Sutton known for Alan Clark the safest?

  34. Plymouth Drake I meant.

  35. My analysis is that the results discussed above illustrate the Conservative Party’s poor ground campaigning.

    They clearly thought the 2015 gains worth defending and hence put in effort. They did not adopt the Cameron 40:40 strategy of defend your most marginal and attack your most promising seats. All the effort went into gains at the wide end of the spectrum. Some lost seats may well have asked activists to go to neighbouring marginal eg Southgate to Enfield N, Canterbury to Thanet S and Kensington to other London marginal. They also failed to respond to the changing campaign on the ground and carried on with their original list of targets instead of falling back on more marginal seats as the polls moved. Labour got this right, starting in their better seats and then moving to more promising gains.

    A similar thing happened in 2001, when the Conservative Party assumed it would win the first 50 seats back from Labour and focussed on the next 50. In the event they made no progress, although the swings were higher where the prospects of winning were lower.

    Finally I observe that the Conservatives did much better where there were county council elections or Scottish elections in May. They would have had fresh organisation and recent voter contact. In London and the Metropolitan areas as well as urban council areas where there were no elections they lost out. Contrast Nottinghamshire with Portsmouth or Brighton. The Scottish elections gave momentum.

    The Welsh elections forecast the poor general election eg Gower in Swansea CC, where Labour did well in May and also Cardiff N. Labour’s losses of seats in May were in the Valleys, where Independents won council seats on low turnouts and in two-horse races.

  36. I think the Labour Party were guilty of this too tbh. I received very little information of where I should go and I think a few people got a emails saying going to Leicester West. If it wasn’t for a few mates who text me saying we’re going to Derby and Corby wanna come then I don’t think I’d have done a great deal tbh

  37. “Moor View was always historically the second safest of the Plymouth seats for the Tories unless I’m mistaken with Sutton known for Alan Clark the safest?”

    I think that’s far too simplistic and not necessarily right. The names and boundaries of the Plymouth seats have moved around too much over the past decades to be able to draw such a generalisation.

    Half of Alan Clark’s “Plymouth Sutton” was made up of mostly safe Tory wards which are now in Devon South West. The less Tory bits of his seat were merged with bits of Drake to create a much more marginal Plymouth Sutton which Labour won in 1997.

    Today’s Moor View seat is mostly formed of the former Devonport seat which was held by the SDP from 83 and then Labour from 92.

    However, looking back to before 1974, the then Plymouth Sutton seat was Labour held (David Owen), whilst Devonport was Tory (Joan Vickers), ironically the situation we again have today.

  38. HH – if I’m not mistaken some of the territory which was moved from Plymouth Sutton to SW Devon has since gone back into Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, though some has remained also.
    GT, interesting what you say about CC elections. I asked a close colleague in Newcastle-under-Lyme why Paul Farrelly had survived by the skin of his teeth whereas Rob Flello had lost Stoke S to the Tories (he cannot stand Farrelly, indeed many can’t, but voted for him anyway). He replied that, as well as the university factor, Labour had fought hard to defend its seats, and gain others (there was a gain from UKIP) in the Staffordshire CC elections, and thus had a good database of voting intentions to start from; but Stoke of course is a unitary authority, which didn’t have elections this year, so Labour had to start from scratch & weren’t well organized enough. We thought Newcastle was a goner, but when the polls turned I asked my friend if it could be saved, and he said yes, the Tories say it’s neck & neck now. As it was.

  39. Fair enough. I wasn’t really sure anyway to be fair so that’s why I really did ask the question. Good to have at least some information on the boundaries because it’s difficult to compare when the current two Plymouth seats aren’t really like for like quite the same as the old ones.

  40. Hi Barnaby

    I think you’re wrong on that. The Sutton & Devonport seat does not go east of the Plym which was also the boundary of the 1997-2010 Plymouth Sutton. The main boundary change was the removal of Devonport itself from the Devonport seat, the rest of which became Moor View.

    About half of Alan Clark’s Plymouth Sutton seat was located east of the Plym, the boundary I think was close to Newton Ferrers, and that was by far the most Tory half of his seat.

  41. Not Newton Ferrers, I meant Plympton, which is the easternmost town within Plymouth City Council area.

    Worth saying also that Plymouth seems to be more amenable than most cities to personal votes, perhaps because of its remoteness. This complicates historical electoral comparisons. David Owen clearly had a big personal vote even as a Labour MP; he really ought to have lost his seat in 1970 and 1979. It’s pretty clear Jonny Mercer has built up a big personal vote, without which Moor View would have been very much closer in the latest election.

  42. Just checked & you’re right. Not sure where I heard that but it was clearly wrong.

  43. Stanley & Outwood Ward By-election, 12.10.17:

    Labour 1,353 51% (+2%)
    Cons 847 32% (+7%)
    LD 165 6% (+2%)
    Yorkshire 153 6%
    UKIP 136 5% (-16%)

    22% Turnout.

  44. Ed Balls in Trumpland should be amusing.

  45. Useful list of the Tories who we know have sent letters to Graham Brady:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46237174https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46237174

    What an utter shower. It’s particularly galling to see three MPs on there whose seats the Tories under Theresa May won from Labour last year. You think they’d be grateful for her premiership..

  46. It’s a bit amusing to see Andrea Jenkins having sent a letter and being very outspoken about against the deal and May but her husband Jack Lopresti backing May and the Deal.

  47. It really is quite the rogue’s gallery. Jenkyns is one of the least talented chancers in Parliament…the least she could do is keep it zipped.

  48. She’s fast gaining on Nadine Dorries for the title of Britain’s maddest MP.

  49. Perhaps they have submitted their letters in private, but it’s notable that the ur-Eurosceptics, Bill Cash, John Redwood etc, are not among the names on that list. It’s mostly folk who entered parliament in 2010 or more recently.

    That means most of them don’t know what it’s like to be in opposition. Redwood and Cash have suffered during Blair’s period of dominance – and a probably not keen to repeat it.

  50. Bill Cash confirmed this morning he has submitted a letter. John Redwood refuses to say either way through.

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